I'm a newbie, and I'm trying to find a way to make every strong lead work. However I don't see it in this instance. I'm going to walk away from the below, but before I do let's ask all of you investors what you think...

Background: 

Driving for dollars letter called me (wow!). I've talked to them a number of times, and walked through the house. Nice family, but they are house-poor, want to move for a shorter commute and lower housing expense. Lots of deferred maintenance, which they know makes it harder to sell. At this point they'd consider taking enough to pay off their note, maybe a little extra to move with.

The Numbers:

Lead owes about $106K

ARV is a conservative $150-155. Probably could break 162K, but let's assume conservatively.

Conservative rent estimate: $1100, but $1200-$1250 is possible.

Taxes: $3600 a year (ouch).

House could easily use 30K in work. Nothing too major, but just lots of deferred maintenance and lack of upkeep, and some crazy stuff too (the only house around that has a gravel driveway, backdoor is elevated for a deck, but no deck there)

I could buy cash for the purchase, rehab, etc, but there's no way I get a good return there.

Assuming 8% Maint, 6% capex, 8% vacancy, 8% prop management for rental scenarios.

Is there something I'm missing, some"creative" method I haven't considered of making a reasonable flip return, or making a decent CoC/monthly cashflow? "Subject To" is possible, but then how do they get financed for the next place? I don't think subject-to actually solves their problem.

Like I said, motivated sellers, but I don't think it's a deal.