BRRR Analysis Formula

BRRR Analysis Formula

Investor · Grand Rapids, MI · Member since 2014 · 47 posts · 20 votes

I'm educating myself on how to properly analyze a BRRR property, and think I have the correct formula put together. Would you mind reviewing and let me know if I'm correct?

To Determine Purchase Price:

([After Repair Value] x .7) - [Repair Costs] - [Hard Money Costs] - [Estimated Purchase Price Closing Costs] - [Refinance Closing Costs] - ([Monthly Taxes & Insurance] x [Months loan held]) ≥ Purchase Price

Variables:

  • [Hard Money Costs] = (((([Percentage] x [ARV]) / 12) x Months Held) + [Early Repayment Penalty*]) + ((([ARV] x [LTV Percentage]) + [Repair Costs**]) x [Points])
  • [ Estimated Purchase Price Closing Costs] = [Estimated Purchase Price] x [Closing Cost Percentage {Usually 6-8%}]
  • [Refinance Closing Costs] = [ARV] x [Closing Cost Percentage {Usually 6-8%}]
  • [Monthly Taxes & Insurance] = Typically ~$100

Example:

  • [Months Held] = 6mo
  • [Hard Money Costs] = (((([12%] x [$100,000]) / 12mo) x 6mo) + [$500*]) + ((([$100,000] x [70%]) + [$20,000**]) x [3%]) = $9200
  • [Purchase Price Closing Costs] = [$70,000] x [8%] = $5600
  • [Refinance Closing Costs] = [$100,000] x [8%] = $8000

([$100,000] x .7) - $20,000 - $9200 - $5600 - $8000 - ($100 x 6mo) ≥ $26,600

Purchase Price = $26,600

Results:

I'll need to find a house that has an ARV of $100,000, but only pay $26,600. To help lower my overall expenses, I could look to reduce my hard money costs, shorten my hold time, and/or reduce my closing costs.

Does my math check out?

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Investor · La Vernia, TX · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 865 votes
9y

Howdy @Brian Stieler

Agree with @Christopher Phillips you are making it too complicated.  

The first thing you do is get good comps to establish a solid ARV. Then apply the 70% rule to determine your all-in cost target. All-in costs are Purchase price, Rehab costs, Closing and Holding costs.

You incorrectly show a Hard Money loan for $100,000. That is your stated ARV. The loan should cover the Purchase price and possibly the Rehab costs. The HML costs would be points up front (example: 4% at closing) and interest only payments during the Holding period. The balance would be due at the end of the 12 month term in a balloon payment.

So based on a $100,000 ARV your All-in costs need to be $70,000 or less to payoff the HML and get all your cash back at the refinancing . I suspect the HML for the Purchase price and Rehab costs would be closer to $50,000 - $60,000. Closing and Holding costs might be $10,000 - $15,000. Of course this is all hypothetical overview.

There are three critical things I find that are necessary to complete a good BRRRR strategy.

1. Establish a solid ARV. If the Refi appraisal is way off from your ARV then you may not get any Cash back.

2. Get pre-qualified for the Refinance loan before purchasing a property. This speeds the process up. Helps you to do your Cash Flow analysis. And demonstrates to the HML you will be able to pay off the loan.

3.  Ensure the property will meet your Cash Flow criteria after the Refinancing.  If it doesn't then what's the point.

See this reply in the discussion

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  • Real Estate Agent · Garden City, NY · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    9y

    @Brian Stieler

    You've made it overly complicated.

    BRRR is simple since the whole point is that you're going to rent out the property.

    This is all you really have to worry about for the purchase to make sure that when you cash out that you can get your initial down payment/invest back out to "Repeat" it again later.

    (After Repair Value X 0.7) – Repairs = Maximum Purchase Price

    The rest of the analysis is really about looking at the rental income and the cash on cash return.

  • Investor · La Vernia, TX · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 865 votes
    9y

    Howdy @Brian Stieler

    Agree with @Christopher Phillips you are making it too complicated.  

    The first thing you do is get good comps to establish a solid ARV. Then apply the 70% rule to determine your all-in cost target. All-in costs are Purchase price, Rehab costs, Closing and Holding costs.

    You incorrectly show a Hard Money loan for $100,000. That is your stated ARV. The loan should cover the Purchase price and possibly the Rehab costs. The HML costs would be points up front (example: 4% at closing) and interest only payments during the Holding period. The balance would be due at the end of the 12 month term in a balloon payment.

    So based on a $100,000 ARV your All-in costs need to be $70,000 or less to payoff the HML and get all your cash back at the refinancing . I suspect the HML for the Purchase price and Rehab costs would be closer to $50,000 - $60,000. Closing and Holding costs might be $10,000 - $15,000. Of course this is all hypothetical overview.

    There are three critical things I find that are necessary to complete a good BRRRR strategy.

    1. Establish a solid ARV. If the Refi appraisal is way off from your ARV then you may not get any Cash back.

    2. Get pre-qualified for the Refinance loan before purchasing a property. This speeds the process up. Helps you to do your Cash Flow analysis. And demonstrates to the HML you will be able to pay off the loan.

    3.  Ensure the property will meet your Cash Flow criteria after the Refinancing.  If it doesn't then what's the point.

  • Real Estate Agent · Garden City, NY · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    9y

    @Brian Stieler

    I agree with @John Leavelle on the numbers.

    Biggest mistake investors make is with the after repair value of the home and then the appraisal comes in too low to get cash back out.

    As with anything, getting that valuation down is the most important part of the analysis.

  • Investor · Grand Rapids, MI · Member since 2014 · 47 posts · 20 votes
    9y

    Thanks, @Christopher Phillips @John Leavelle. Looking back at my formula, I have to agree that I've made things more complicated than they need to be. I wanted to have a detailed view of all costs necessary to come out ahead with the BRRR strategy.

    Your breakdown @John Leavelle makes complete sense. Thanks for writing that up.

  • Real Estate Agent · Garden City, NY · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    9y

    @Brian Stieler

    I have mine on a single page spreadsheet. It's very simple. I use a 2nd tab to calculate the amortization of the mortgage, but everything on the 1st tab is just dropping in the assumptions.

  • Real Estate Investor · Palm Beach County, FL · Member since 2017 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    9y

    @Christopher Phillips @John Leavelle What is the easiest and/or most effective way of making sure your BRRRR will meet your cash desired flow AFTER the refinance? I understand how to analyze and run the numbers for the purchase but what about for the cash-out refinance aspect?

  • Real Estate Agent · Garden City, NY · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    9y

    @Brian Garrett

    70% of ARV is the expectation for a cash out refinance.

    So, then you have to make sure your ARV assumption going in is relatively solid since all the calculations are based on that.

    So, purchase price max would be 70% of ARV less rehab costs. Maybe add a little wiggle room for rehab budget over runs. And then make an assumption for your cash outlay investment that you want to get back out. The remaining dollar amount becomes the max purchase price to make sure you can get your cash investment back out.

    Example:

    Assuming cash purchase and cash for rehab and ignoring closing costs for the refi.

    $300,000 ARV (will be based on comps for rehabbed homes in the area).

    70% = $210,000 cash out refi target.

    Less $50,000 rehab

    Purchase price $160,000 with closing costs.

    ~5% or $8,000 in closing costs (depends on the area), so max offer would be $152,000.

    Then check the math to see if you can get most of your cash outlay back out.

    Check the math: $210,000 70% ARV less rehab $50,000 less purchase closing costs $8,000 = $152,000 for max purchase to make sure you get your total cash investment back out.

    If using any sort of financing for the purchase or the rehab or both, then the calculation for max price needs to consider the financing costs. For HML, that would be points and monthly interest.

    An example: Borrow $50,000 for rehab and purchase $160,000.

    Down payment 10% $21,000. HML = $189,000 Closing costs $8,000 plus 4% for points $7,560. 6 months interest at 12%/year = $11,340.

    So, borrowing costs add $18,900

    Max offer price would then need to be 70% ARV $210,000 - cash deposit $21,000 - closing costs $8,000 - extra HML borrowing costs $18,900 = $162,100

    You end up roughly in the same max purchase price zone, but with the HML route you only had to lay out the 10% down payment.

    Buying with cash makes it delayed financing. Using HML means you have use seasoning before you can do the cash out refi. Some lenders will use 6 months for seasoning, others 12 months. If project delays or seasoning issues go beyond 6 months, then you have to consider the potential for carrying cost overruns eating into your potential to pull your money back out.

  • Real Estate Investor · Palm Beach County, FL · Member since 2017 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    9y

    @Christopher Phillips Thank you for the detailed response. Everything you mentioned about calculating your max offer price I already understand. That's what I meant when I said I know how to analyze the purchase which is essentially what you just went over. I'm specifically asking about cash flow. For example let's say the property I acquire is cash flowing $250/month after all expenses have been taken into consideration. Let's also assume I paid cash for said property. After I cash out refinance at 70% LTV will that cash flow then change now that there is a lender involved? I would assume it will no longer be the same $250/month that it was cash flowing prior to the cash out refinance. So when analyzing a deal on the purchase end how do you make sure that your property will still meet your desired cash flow AFTER the cash out refinance is complete?

  • Real Estate Agent · Garden City, NY · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    9y

    @Brian Garrett

    Yes. Your mortgage payments would need to be considered into the final post refi cash flow calculations. So, you have to look at the numbers when you first put tenants into the property and also after you refi.

    Using cash purchase and rehab = It's rent roll less expenses (utilities, prop taxes, home insurance, PM, maintenance, CapEx).

    After cash out refi = it's rent roll less previous expenses and additional principal and interest payments.

    So, the tricky part is this: will the rehab increase the rents enough to carry the additional principal and interest payments so that you have positive cashflow?

    Not always the case. So, you can conceivably have a property that has cash flow with an all cash purchase, but has negative cashflow with a mortgage.

    So, you ideally need to look at the cash flow situation at all stages of the project - purchase phase, rehab and rent out phase, and then post refi phase.

  • Real Estate Investor · Palm Beach County, FL · Member since 2017 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    9y

    @Christopher Phillips Once again I appreciate your reply but everything you said is what I already know and what I'm looking for a solution to. I want to make sure I don't pay cash for a property that has good cash flow and then go to zero cash flow or perhaps negative cash flow after I cash out refinance. So I'm trying to understand how to protect myself from that situation and make sure BEFORE purchasing the property that the cash flow will still meet my needs AFTERWARDS.

  • Real Estate Agent · Garden City, NY · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    9y

    @Brian Garrett

    No worries, Brian.

    Look, it comes down to the post refi calculation. That's part of the analysis. If you use the BP calculator for BRRR or create your own, the post refi analysis is part of it.

    Before you purchase the property, you make assumptions about the rent you can charge after the rehab and do the cash flow calculation with the refi mortgage and the final expected rents. You should be able to get average rents for any given area based on apartment size, condition, amenities, and location.

    Using the above example:

    $3,000 in rent per month (duplex with $1,500 top and bottom)

    monthly maintenance, capex, home insurance, water, PM = $810

    monthly Prop tax $1,000

    On a cash basis = $3,000 - $1,810 gets you $1,190 monthly cash flow

    refi basis, Principle and interest on $210,000 refi loan @4.5%  = $1,064

    So, with refi = $3,000 - $1,180 - $1,064 = $164 monthly cash flow

  • Real Estate Investor · Palm Beach County, FL · Member since 2017 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    9y

    @Christopher Phillips Thanks Christopher I'll play more with the calculators instead of running the numbers and analysis myself and see if that produces the data that I'm looking for.

  • Real Estate Agent · Garden City, NY · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    9y

    @Brian Garrett

    Is there some part of the analysis that you think you're missing?

  • Real Estate Investor · Palm Beach County, FL · Member since 2017 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    9y

    @Christopher Phillips Yes the part I've asked about three times in this post, lol.

  • Investor · La Vernia, TX · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 865 votes
    9y

    @Brian Garrett

    As I mentioned in other posts one of the first things I do is get pre-qualified for the Re-finance loan before I purchase any property.  In fact I will do the same for a regular rental property purchase.  That way I know my max loan amount and what the rate and terms will be (assuming no changes).  It helps clearly defines what my numbers must be.  

    So, establish a solid ARV, get pre-qualified, and know what the Rental Market rates are. When analyzing a property for Cash Flow I alway use a very conservative 55% for expenses. I don't care what the real numbers are. If it passes 55% it will turn out good. Most of the time the actual expenses are well below that. Example:

    I have a current Duplex that has completed the Rehab and been fully rented for 3 months.

    Purchase, Rehab, Closing and Holding costs should come in just under $70,000.

    ARV = $110,000

    Rental Income = $1,200 (I have room to raise more based on Market)

    The Pre-qualified Cash-out loan from my Credit Union will be at 4.5% APR for 25 years. 6 month seasoning required.

    The projected mortgage payment is $389 mo.  ($70,000 loan)

    My initial Cash Flow Analysis:

    Income = $1,200

    Expenses = $660 (55%)

    NOI = $540

    Cash Flow = $540 - $389 = $151

    This is not my typical minimum cash flow criteria, but, it was part of a 2 property purchase (3Br SFR). The second property currently CF at $523 mo. This property also sits an extremely large lot where I will be adding another Duplex and 4 Car Garage.

    The actual expenses for the Duplex are averaging $456.  That makes my CF at $355 after the Refi.

    Does that help Brian?

  • Investor · Hillsboro, OR · Member since 2014 · 62 posts · 45 votes
    9y

    @Brian Stieler Amazing work with the analysis! I am impressed! I am sure you put a lot of effort and learned a lot about different variables! :)

    The right deal is made before you purchase the property.  A thorough research on the rental demand in the area is a must since cash flow is a yes yes and vacancy is a no no. 

    ARV must be just right since Refi can pay your hard money if 70% meets that number you borrowed! So make sure you have your research on comps thorough.

    Appraisal! Refi appraisals are ALWAYS lower than the ones when you go to sell the house and you have an offer. Most of the appraisal numbers magically meet the offer price! but if the same house is appraised for Refi.. its a different story! I am giving you a hit here as to what to do to get a high appraisal. I would never do a cash out refi unless needed ;) 

  • Hyattsville, MD · Member since 2013 · 42 posts · 17 votes
    9y

    @Christopher Phillips thanks for this breakdown. I had questions about the BRRRR strategy as well. After reading all of the posts, I don't there is anything else that you could add to make it any more clear than it is.

  • Real Estate Investor · Palm Beach County, FL · Member since 2017 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @John Leavelle:

    @Brian Garrett

    As I mentioned in other posts one of the first things I do is get pre-qualified for the Re-finance loan before I purchase any property.  In fact I will do the same for a regular rental property purchase.  That way I know my max loan amount and what the rate and terms will be (assuming no changes).  It helps clearly defines what my numbers must be.  

    So, establish a solid ARV, get pre-qualified, and know what the Rental Market rates are. When analyzing a property for Cash Flow I alway use a very conservative 55% for expenses. I don't care what the real numbers are. If it passes 55% it will turn out good. Most of the time the actual expenses are well below that. Example:

    I have a current Duplex that has completed the Rehab and been fully rented for 3 months.

    Purchase, Rehab, Closing and Holding costs should come in just under $70,000.

    ARV = $110,000

    Rental Income = $1,200 (I have room to raise more based on Market)

    The Pre-qualified Cash-out loan from my Credit Union will be at 4.5% APR for 25 years. 6 month seasoning required.

    The projected mortgage payment is $389 mo.  ($70,000 loan)

    My initial Cash Flow Analysis:

    Income = $1,200

    Expenses = $660 (55%)

    NOI = $540

    Cash Flow = $540 - $389 = $151

    This is not my typical minimum cash flow criteria, but, it was part of a 2 property purchase (3Br SFR). The second property currently CF at $523 mo. This property also sits an extremely large lot where I will be adding another Duplex and 4 Car Garage.

    The actual expenses for the Duplex are averaging $456.  That makes my CF at $355 after the Refi.

    Does that help Brian?

    Yes thank you John I appreciate the example. So the key to making sure my cash flow needs are met AFTER the refinance is really just to know what that mortgage payment will be in advance.

  • Real Estate Investor · Palm Beach County, FL · Member since 2017 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Pragya Singh:

    @Brian Stieler Amazing work with the analysis! I am impressed! I am sure you put a lot of effort and learned a lot about different variables! :)

    The right deal is made before you purchase the property.  A thorough research on the rental demand in the area is a must since cash flow is a yes yes and vacancy is a no no. 

    ARV must be just right since Refi can pay your hard money if 70% meets that number you borrowed! So make sure you have your research on comps thorough.

    Appraisal! Refi appraisals are ALWAYS lower than the ones when you go to sell the house and you have an offer. Most of the appraisal numbers magically meet the offer price! but if the same house is appraised for Refi.. its a different story! I am giving you a hit here as to what to do to get a high appraisal. I would never do a cash out refi unless needed ;) 

    Doesn't the lender you are doing the cash out refinance through order the appraisal? Won't the appraiser know it's not for a purchase since the house is not for sale and the lender is the one requesting the appraisal to be done? How do you go about this Pragya? Thanks.

  • Investor · La Vernia, TX · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 865 votes
    9y

    @Brian Garrett

    Right.  If it is not going to meet your Cash Flow criteria after the Refinancing then what's the point.

  • Real Estate Investor · Palm Beach County, FL · Member since 2017 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    9y

    @John Leavelle I agree to an extent. Although cash flow is the main objective with rentals for me personally there are still other benefits outside of that. Mortgage pay down, appreciation, tax benefits, etc. What I love most about BRRRR is there are multiple exit strategies too.

  • Investor · Greenville, SC · Member since 2016 · 5k+ posts · 13k+ votes
    9y

    @Brian Garrett run the post-rehab figures through a regular rental calculator as if you purchased the property for it's ARV. Often times, the post-rehab and refinance cash flow can be slim when you have a very successful rehab and strong value add. Keep in mind, you may have $0 or very little cash invested at that point; so, your ROI could be very high or infinite even if the cash flow is slim.

    If the unleveraged cash flow is only $250 per month, the predictable appreciation needs to be factored in or it's a better flip than a buy and hold.

    Many investors use IRR to capture the holistic returns, which include the value add, cash flow, and principal reduction, but it's also good to analyze the post-rehab returns by themselves to ensure that the property is a good long term hold (and not just a good flip).

  • Real Estate Investor · Palm Beach County, FL · Member since 2017 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    9y

    @Mike Dymski Thanks for sharing your two cents. The $250/month was not a real world number it was simply a figure I threw out just for discussion sake. I agree though if that was a real world scenario it would need to be flipped and not held as a rental. The part I'm not following is where you said often the cash flow can be very slim after a successful rehab and refinance. Why is this?

  • Investor · Greenville, SC · Member since 2016 · 5k+ posts · 13k+ votes
    9y

    @Brian Garrett the ARV may be so high relative to the rent that it does not cash flow as well. Higher ARV = higher loan balance = lower cash flow. The more success you have with increasing the property value, the worse the post-rehab rental figures look because the loan payment is more. You can trick yourself by refinancing at a lower LTV% (or not refinancing at all), keeping more equity in the property, and improving your cash flow (on this property alone) but that is just financial engineering to get the cash flow result you want.

    Many investors will accept a lower post-rehab and refinance cash flow on a BRRRR than they would accept on a straight buy and hold with no value add. Two reasons...(1) they have little or no cash left invested in the property and (2) they do not want to keep flipping.

  • Real Estate Investor · Palm Beach County, FL · Member since 2017 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    9y

    @Mike Dymski Makes perfect sense thank you for that explanation Mike.

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