Retain SFH or sell and invest somewhere else for higher return

Retain SFH or sell and invest somewhere else for higher return

Investor · Fremont, CA · Member since 2014 · 35 posts · 15 votes

I own a SFH in Santa Clara CA in which I lived for quite a few years, before I moved to my current residence. When I moved out, I thought it would be good idea to retain the house as rental property and capture the long term appreciation. But now looking at numbers, it seems to me that it might not be best of the options, as it is currently providing cash on equity return of about 2.4% (long term appreciation not included). I am beginning to think that I might be better off selling and investing somewhere else. I would like to get your perspective on this.

The house at present is worth about $1M and I have about $700k of equity in it. Currently, after taking care of all expenses, it is providing about $1400 positive cashflow per month. This is about 2.4% return on my equity.

I recently invested in a duplex out of state and it is returning about 12% cash on cash.

I have been inclined to retain this house and hope that long term appreciation will make up for it (over a 10 year period). But let us say I would be satisfied with about 10% annual return after 10 years, the house will have to appreciate (keeping the calculation simple) by (10-2.4)*10 = 76%.

While I am very positive about appreciation of RE in silicon valley (specially SFHs), but 76% appreciation seems unlikely to me. I would like to get more perspectives and advise on this.

Thanks

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Real Estate Agent · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2015 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
9y

Why don't you use $200,000 equity and invest for cash flow in more affordable markets and still retain the property for appreciation. It is like a blended fund 

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  • Real Estate Agent · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2015 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    9y

    Why don't you use $200,000 equity and invest for cash flow in more affordable markets and still retain the property for appreciation. It is like a blended fund 

  • Investor · Fremont, CA · Member since 2014 · 35 posts · 15 votes
    9y
    Steve, thank you for replying. I have considered this, and if I decide to retain the property will definitely folow tour suggestion. In any case, I am still curious to know whether Bay Area market veterans see 76% appreciation over next 10 years as likely.
  • Rental Property Investor · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    9y

    Real hard to say over 10 years. Per the chart below, we typically have a huge run up every decade. We just finished one now of course, so it's always hard to say. But I think it's smart keeping the house. As they say, cash flow pays the bills, but appreciation is what makes you rich. I'd be patient, relax on this and keep it. I think it's a strong likelihood that the big appreciation swing will come again, it's just hard knowing when. But 10 years is a pretty long timeframe, per historical chart below. Let us know what you decide. Cheers!

  • Deland, FL · Member since 2017 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    9y

    If you didn't have a successful track record investing out of state I would say maybe sell maybe not. 

    Seeing as you do have the experience I would say go for it.  Imagine making 5 times net you are now. 

  • Investor · Fremont, CA · Member since 2014 · 35 posts · 15 votes
    9y

    @Amit M. , thank you for sharing the graphic for appreciation curve. Large deal of appreciation over current cycle has already happened and downward trend seems to be due. It does not look likely that I will get 76% appreciation over next 10 years. 

    @Michael Plante, Thanks for the suggestion. 

    Though I haven't made final decision yet, but I am inclined towards selling the house and re-investing the money.

  • Walnut Creek, CA · Member since 2015 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    9y

    I'd take that OOS.... then come back when the market cools off.

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