Housing crash deniers ???

Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes

Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions.

However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.

Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct.

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Greg ScottPro Member

Rental Property Investor · SE Michigan · Member since 2014 · 4k+ posts · 6k+ votes

The market may correct, but I firmly believe there won't be a crash. The reason is simple, equity.

Before 2008 people with no income could get liars loans and buy much more real estate than they could afford. We heard stories of cleaning ladies buying multiple million dollar homes. When home prices starting falling, the whole thing collapses like a house of cards because nobody had any equity. They couldn't sell and get out. We had cascading foreclosures creating a downward spiral.

Recently, prices have been surging. Given the laws passed after the Great Recession, appraisals and lending is highly restricted. Appraisals have not been keeping up with prices and lenders won't lend above appraised value. We sold a house in 2021 and in one day had 20 offers. Several of them had acceleration clauses stating they would pay more than anyone else up to $X. Both of them waived any financing contingency because they KNEW the house wouldn't appraise for what they were offering. They had to make up the difference with cash. Those people have a ton of equity in their homes. If they had to sell, they might take a haircut, but they aren't going to get foreclosed.

There is no house of cards here to come tumbling down.

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James Hamling
Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
3y
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

This is the actual active inventory number for Dec 22:
_Time____Dec22__Nov22
Denver__4.7k_____6.2k
Vegas___7.6k_____8.9k
Nashvile_6.6k____7.9k
SantaClara__0.69k___1.12k

Inventory is mildly reducing in many markets, indicating a consolidation phase.

Keep in mind, we are in middle of winter off-season. This trajectory holds over next 8-12 weeks, it set's the stage for the single tightest housing inventory market EVER, another record setting year. This, my gut read, will have a far greater market impact on rental rates than it will sale prices.
I would have to coin this summer season "the results" season, because I foresee the end result of, well everything, coming together into substance this season. Which yes, pushes things into bubble territory.

I don't understand why you say it would impact rental more.
I have no data to point to on this, it's purely a "gut feel". Things are, for lack of a better term, "wonky".

We have had a increased volume of rental stock being removed from inventory via market sale to owner occupant. Nothing weird, landlords retire every week of every year since "Jesus was a pup". The market jump up just induced those seeing it on the coming horizon, to take advantage of the opportunity now vs waiting.
Now, take a market that is in consolidation and that trend projects to continue. BUT, at same time new unit starts has decreased, disproportionately. And all at the same time of greater barriers to purchase therein increasing rental demand.
So we have a layer cake of factors greatly increasing tenant base, at same time of many factors all greatly lowering inventory. It's a "perfect storm".

It's easy to say, from a landlord perspective that this is all "awesome sauce", but no, it's "too good" which sets things up to get very bad. Tight market, more demand then supply = hot market, we all profit better. Now amp that to a level 11, putting it past 'tight" into "housing crisis" mode and things get very ugly very fast. It's when people start grabbing at pitch-forks.
We get outrage, and today media loves to amp that stuff up and pour all the gas possible on the fire.
Then we get various politicians looking to tap the lightning to gain popularity. That's how we start to get really stupid, and extreme, gov. policy actions.

I just got this feeling, it's gonna get very tight, too tight this season. Politics come in and make an epic mess of things via the "were here to help you" cloak. And in comes the real bubble. A super bubble.

How many pandemic agents are now freaking out? Gov does some ninja-2.0 and I guarantee they will all cheer it's arrival and run with that ball making early 2000's look like a warm-up. Yes, I do believe we have political leadership that stupid and that short-sighted.
Any stimulus into housing at this time will not only kick in inflation again but it will do it with epic sling-shot immediacy. As those prices run up, so will the stimulus have to outpace. It facilitates a melt-up potential. i have only ever seen such in theory, never thought I'd see an actual setup in my lifetime but we have 8 of 10 ingredients for it now.
So while most eyes have been fixated on the ownership side of the R.E. market, it's actually the rental segment of housing that's the real loaded gun. And we have elected toddlers to run around halls of gov to handle it....
Don't get me wrong, they open those golden gates I will be buying like a mad-man-maniac, but I will also be doing it with strategy in mind ready for strategic default when the cards fall. I wouldn't be surprised to see that around '25'. There is this nasty habit on the hill of playing hot-potato on a transitioning party.
I know I should be saying we see light at end of the tunnel, because we do, but I have this eerie feeling the real crazy sh#t's about to kick off. Hard to have confidence in the Fed being capable for this stuff when there literally saying they don't really understand what's happening so there just gonna keep using that old dusty playbook from '77'.
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Michael Wooldridge
Member since 2022 · 485 posts · 216 votes
3y
And look at that. 2022 was the second best year on record for job growth (only behind 2021) and boomers are retiring finally which is creating more pressure. Things are going to conitnue to be fun but the job market is going to continue to be strong.
Real nice article on this trend here: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/0...
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John Carbone
Realtor · Gatlinburg · Member since 2020 · 1k+ posts · 957 votes
3y
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

And look at that. 2022 was the second best year on record for job growth (only behind 2021) and boomers are retiring finally which is creating more pressure. Things are going to conitnue to be fun but the job market is going to continue to be strong.
Real nice article on this trend here: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/0...

Why are real wages down then?

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Michael Wooldridge
Member since 2022 · 485 posts · 216 votes
3y
Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

And look at that. 2022 was the second best year on record for job growth (only behind 2021) and boomers are retiring finally which is creating more pressure. Things are going to conitnue to be fun but the job market is going to continue to be strong.
Real nice article on this trend here: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/0...
Why are real wages down then?
People tend to not get pay raises until the beginning of the year/q1. Even then November was only 1.9% down after a fair amount of growth. Inflation is fun. Whats also fun if job market is tight and boomers keep retiring then employers will offer more or diff benefits.

regardless inflation will hurt low wage employees but even those are much higher look at taco bell hiring at like $18 an hour.
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John Carbone
Realtor · Gatlinburg · Member since 2020 · 1k+ posts · 957 votes
3y
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

And look at that. 2022 was the second best year on record for job growth (only behind 2021) and boomers are retiring finally which is creating more pressure. Things are going to conitnue to be fun but the job market is going to continue to be strong.
Real nice article on this trend here: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/0...
Why are real wages down then?
People tend to not get pay raises until the beginning of the year/q1. Even then November was only 1.9% down after a fair amount of growth. Inflation is fun. Whats also fun if job market is tight and boomers keep retiring then employers will offer more or diff benefits.

regardless inflation will hurt low wage employees but even those are much higher look at taco bell hiring at like $18 an hour.
Any opinion on this?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/g...
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Greg R.
OP
Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes
3y
Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Bottom line, inventory is up almost across the board. Yes, some places more than others - of course. However, the deniers were saying that when rates rose and buyers became skeptical that sellers would simply pull out and inventory would tank. However, the opposite has happened - inventory has risen.
I am SO exhausted of LIES! SHOW ME THE DATA! Because I will show the date here below as PROOF your 100% WRONG! That now, inventory is NOT doubling "everywhere coast to coast". You literally just make this sh#t up and just say it, which is based on NOTHING but your FEELINGS. This is what, the 3rd time now I have done a data dump that 100% DISPROVES what your out here saying is so 100% fact "Coast To Coast", and it's not, it's JUST your slice of crappy CA. MOVE!
Months of supply at RECORD lows over last 10yrs.
Days on market all but dead flat at RECORD 10yr low
NEW LISTINGS, yeah, let's look at that, HOW did people react to the rate increases in '22'. WOW, look at that, new listings volume feel off a cliff, RECORD low. Huh, looks like people decided to NOT sell as reaction to high rates.
Oh but Greg says everyone will get pennies on the dollar for there homes. Are we shocked that reality is 100% opposite what Greg says?
TOTAL market dollar volume. Yes, we see the volume reduction right there when rates shot up, yup.
And price per sqft STILL making RECORD highs, STILL, each and every month INCLUDING Dec '22'.
See, the above is what DATA based forecasting looks like, I use actual DATA, math, FACTS to make forecasts. Please Greg, feel free to use actual facts vs your feelings.
Wow!!! Twisting data like usual. My analysis isn't going back years. It's looking at inventory since the bubble. No one ever said inventory is up historically going back 10 years 😂😂

Go back and try to read my posts slowly and carefully. Although it will be challenging, I believe you might be able to comprehend.
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John Carbone
Realtor · Gatlinburg · Member since 2020 · 1k+ posts · 957 votes
3y
Im still waiting for the 4th quarter to come in . This is the proxy I said i was using that we would see a 20-30 percent drop from this peak by q4 2023. If we aren’t in a downtrend after 2 quarterly updates then I’ll question my thesis, but based on what I see, this top seems very obvious.

Target range: 318k-363k

@James Hamling

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James Hamling
Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
3y
Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Bottom line, inventory is up almost across the board. Yes, some places more than others - of course. However, the deniers were saying that when rates rose and buyers became skeptical that sellers would simply pull out and inventory would tank. However, the opposite has happened - inventory has risen.
I am SO exhausted of LIES! SHOW ME THE DATA! Because I will show the date here below as PROOF your 100% WRONG! That now, inventory is NOT doubling "everywhere coast to coast". You literally just make this sh#t up and just say it, which is based on NOTHING but your FEELINGS. This is what, the 3rd time now I have done a data dump that 100% DISPROVES what your out here saying is so 100% fact "Coast To Coast", and it's not, it's JUST your slice of crappy CA. MOVE!
Months of supply at RECORD lows over last 10yrs.
Days on market all but dead flat at RECORD 10yr low
NEW LISTINGS, yeah, let's look at that, HOW did people react to the rate increases in '22'. WOW, look at that, new listings volume feel off a cliff, RECORD low. Huh, looks like people decided to NOT sell as reaction to high rates.
Oh but Greg says everyone will get pennies on the dollar for there homes. Are we shocked that reality is 100% opposite what Greg says?
TOTAL market dollar volume. Yes, we see the volume reduction right there when rates shot up, yup.
And price per sqft STILL making RECORD highs, STILL, each and every month INCLUDING Dec '22'.
See, the above is what DATA based forecasting looks like, I use actual DATA, math, FACTS to make forecasts. Please Greg, feel free to use actual facts vs your feelings.
Wow!!! Twisting data like usual. My analysis isn't going back years. It's looking at inventory since the bubble. No one ever said inventory is up historically going back 10 years 😂😂

Go back and try to read my posts slowly and carefully. Although it will be challenging, I believe you might be able to comprehend.

Exactly how is showing ALL the data of last 10 years "skewing the data"?????? Please explain that oxymoron.

Feel free to pick your year/month Greg, it's all right there int he charts. That's why I dropped the FULL data NOT selective little data snippets to press confirmation bias, no, I gave the FULL data, total and complete.

Your obviously upset with the data, and searching for how it can be twisted to confirm your feelings. It doesn't. So now your attacking the data, LOL. Saying it's showing too much to people, no, just hide a bunch of the data, lol.

It's become very obvious you don't care for facts, you decided this thread must be an echo-chamber of your feelings, and that is it. There doesn't seem anything more to say to such a person. Good luck with that?

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Greg R.
OP
Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes
3y
Quote from @David Oldenburg:

I think the real estate market gets worse later in 2023. This is due to consumers treading water financially and this has been going on for 2 years and they are out of money. I have a relative who works for a large car repo company and they have never been this busy in their history. There are now 15,000 repos per day in the US (you can use Google unless they have hidden this fact again). Layoffs have been increasing, especially in silicon valley and they are many many companies stating 2023 is going to be bad for them and they may have to reduce staff. It feels like 2007 when the real estate market was holding steady but the consumer was weakening behind the scenes. As the consumer got worse the market went down. Sorry but there are lots and lots of loans and homes upside down and these people will be gone when things get worse and they will drive the market down. In my area of Sacramento there are thousands of upside down FHA loans done over the last 18 months and they were all financed at near 100% with MIP and these are the lowest quality buyers... To say the market "can't" or won't" drop is just as ridiculous as the people who said it in 2007....and there were a lot of them... they were all wrong. I will mark this post and take a look at it in 12 months January 2024.
Agreed. Most people are starting to come around... however, there are still a few outliers that are denying the obvious.

The economy is clearly in a very bad place. The auto industry is only one aspect of the economy we can look at - but what's happening there is clear and undeniable. Same with layoffs, a lot of companies were waiting until the new year to start layoffs. We're going to see a lot more news about layoffs throughout Q1. Inflation is still raging and the continual inflated costs of good and services are starting to wear on people.

Again, when we look at data from the federal government we need to understand that they are not wanting people to know how bad it is. They want to downplay it. For instance the White House was bragging that gas prices are down from an all-time high, but the truth is that they're still a lot higher than what they were when this admin took over.

Unemployment is only one metric, but that's not the whole story.
"While the U.S. labor market remains incredibly tight — with the economy adding another 263,000 jobs in November — around 7 million 'prime age' men between the ages of 25 and 54 are reportedly sitting it out.
'They are affirmatively not looking for work. They've punched out. They're done,' TV host Mike Rowe said, citing research from economist Nick Eberstadt."
Per far left CNN a few weeks ago, "In the year through November, food got 10.6% more expensive, with grocery prices rising 12% and menu prices jumping 8.5%, not adjusted for seasonal swings, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday. In that same period, overall inflation rose 7.1%."

Not long ago I debunked James' false claim that wage increases were offsetting inflation, which is 100% not true. This is provable by data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and ADP.

Per Axios "The personal saving rate — the share of disposable income left over after spending — dropped to a rock-bottom 2.3% in October, as consumer spending accelerated at a healthy clip." In data that goes back more than 60 years, there's been just one instance of a lower saving rate.

Then, we look at the housing market in the last 6 months, (please read James, six months), and the trends are clear. Sales volume, loan apps, inventory, and prices. They are HEADING in a certain direction. We're not there yet, we haven't arrived. That's the mix up with a lot of us here. I'm not saying we're there, but we're on the way to where we're going.

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Greg R.
OP
Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes
3y
Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Bottom line, inventory is up almost across the board. Yes, some places more than others - of course. However, the deniers were saying that when rates rose and buyers became skeptical that sellers would simply pull out and inventory would tank. However, the opposite has happened - inventory has risen.
I am SO exhausted of LIES! SHOW ME THE DATA! Because I will show the date here below as PROOF your 100% WRONG! That now, inventory is NOT doubling "everywhere coast to coast". You literally just make this sh#t up and just say it, which is based on NOTHING but your FEELINGS. This is what, the 3rd time now I have done a data dump that 100% DISPROVES what your out here saying is so 100% fact "Coast To Coast", and it's not, it's JUST your slice of crappy CA. MOVE!
Months of supply at RECORD lows over last 10yrs.
Days on market all but dead flat at RECORD 10yr low
NEW LISTINGS, yeah, let's look at that, HOW did people react to the rate increases in '22'. WOW, look at that, new listings volume feel off a cliff, RECORD low. Huh, looks like people decided to NOT sell as reaction to high rates.
Oh but Greg says everyone will get pennies on the dollar for there homes. Are we shocked that reality is 100% opposite what Greg says?
TOTAL market dollar volume. Yes, we see the volume reduction right there when rates shot up, yup.
And price per sqft STILL making RECORD highs, STILL, each and every month INCLUDING Dec '22'.
See, the above is what DATA based forecasting looks like, I use actual DATA, math, FACTS to make forecasts. Please Greg, feel free to use actual facts vs your feelings.
Wow!!! Twisting data like usual. My analysis isn't going back years. It's looking at inventory since the bubble. No one ever said inventory is up historically going back 10 years 😂😂

Go back and try to read my posts slowly and carefully. Although it will be challenging, I believe you might be able to comprehend.

Exactly how is showing ALL the data of last 10 years "skewing the data"?????? Please explain that oxymoron.

Feel free to pick your year/month Greg, it's all right there int he charts. That's why I dropped the FULL data NOT selective little data snippets to press confirmation bias, no, I gave the FULL data, total and complete.

Your obviously upset with the data, and searching for how it can be twisted to confirm your feelings. It doesn't. So now your attacking the data, LOL. Saying it's showing too much to people, no, just hide a bunch of the data, lol.

It's become very obvious you don't care for facts, you decided this thread must be an echo-chamber of your feelings, and that is it. There doesn't seem anything more to say to such a person. Good luck with that?

The chain started here. "inventory isn't where it was years ago, but it's increasing not decreasing." Like usual, you are arguing against yourself. No one ever said inventory is up from 10 years ago. Try to read posts before responding.
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James Hamling
Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
3y
Quote from @John Carbone:

Im still waiting for the 4th quarter to come in . This is the proxy I said i was using that we would see a 20-30 percent drop from this peak by q4 2023. If we aren’t in a downtrend after 2 quarterly updates then I’ll question my thesis, but based on what I see, this top seems very obvious.

Target range: 318k-363k

@James Hamling

That is a very clear, definitive forecast with set points of measure, I applaud the action of setting and clarifying such.
I will point out in that chart, notice the history of the step back after those peaks, and then a run up into new highs, with a peak, a step back, and then a new run up. I don't know anyone saying the median prices are going to keep going up at rate they had up-to '22', and of any did I'd say there nuts. But a 30% pull-back is equally "nuts".
We are now into consolidation. As I have said all along, with consolidation a step-back UP-TO 15%, with micro-market specific deviations form that #. I have often used various markets in CA as an example of this deviation like L.A. where is see a MUCH bigger drop in median prices, actually most of the market deviations in the negative are CA markets because the "CA Bubble" is what's bursting. And TX/FL as examples of micro-markets with deviations in the positive. TN has some of these also.
BUT, BUT, BUT..... I have also said F.Gov. meddling this season could be a big X-factor to things. I anticipate them doing such, some kind of "stimulus" and that will change everything. It's simple econ 101, pour a bunch of $ into things and prices run up. Give people $20k down payment $, like magic home prices shot up $40k. Real Estate uses leveraged funds, so any "stimulus" handed out has a multiplier effect, unless they connect it to the whole purchase price, which they never do, they always connect it to down which naturally has an amplification factor to total sale price.
So in that scenario, yes, there would be a new "bull-run" on home prices, but it's all built on BS. The market now, today, it's running on fundamentals, not fluffed up by anything other than demand curve.
As for the mass layoffs you and Greg keep "feeling" is out there, check out the UNFILLED worker demand, and cross reference the math, that's where I think you 2 are getting lost in confirmation bias. The U.S. economy can readily absorb a heck of a lot of layoffs right now. Some could argue, like the Fed, that it NEEDS layoffs, to press worker engagement to infill that demand which is more a hidden statement that workers today are being "divas" and not doing the jobs available. They need to slash the golden parachute of "human-cat" programs, force people to work vs "Netflix & Chill" for $.
Per U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of job openings as of last day of November was 10.5 MILLION! To put that in terms the population of Chicago is 2.7 million. That's more then 1 job opening for EVERY 20 working age people in the U.S.. Think about that for a moment. There is a TON of job openings, TONS.
More then 10 MILLION job openings. That's a lot of jobs.
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James Hamling
Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
3y
Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Bottom line, inventory is up almost across the board. Yes, some places more than others - of course. However, the deniers were saying that when rates rose and buyers became skeptical that sellers would simply pull out and inventory would tank. However, the opposite has happened - inventory has risen.
I am SO exhausted of LIES! SHOW ME THE DATA! Because I will show the date here below as PROOF your 100% WRONG! That now, inventory is NOT doubling "everywhere coast to coast". You literally just make this sh#t up and just say it, which is based on NOTHING but your FEELINGS. This is what, the 3rd time now I have done a data dump that 100% DISPROVES what your out here saying is so 100% fact "Coast To Coast", and it's not, it's JUST your slice of crappy CA. MOVE!
Months of supply at RECORD lows over last 10yrs.
Days on market all but dead flat at RECORD 10yr low
NEW LISTINGS, yeah, let's look at that, HOW did people react to the rate increases in '22'. WOW, look at that, new listings volume feel off a cliff, RECORD low. Huh, looks like people decided to NOT sell as reaction to high rates.
Oh but Greg says everyone will get pennies on the dollar for there homes. Are we shocked that reality is 100% opposite what Greg says?
TOTAL market dollar volume. Yes, we see the volume reduction right there when rates shot up, yup.
And price per sqft STILL making RECORD highs, STILL, each and every month INCLUDING Dec '22'.
See, the above is what DATA based forecasting looks like, I use actual DATA, math, FACTS to make forecasts. Please Greg, feel free to use actual facts vs your feelings.
Wow!!! Twisting data like usual. My analysis isn't going back years. It's looking at inventory since the bubble. No one ever said inventory is up historically going back 10 years 😂😂

Go back and try to read my posts slowly and carefully. Although it will be challenging, I believe you might be able to comprehend.

Exactly how is showing ALL the data of last 10 years "skewing the data"?????? Please explain that oxymoron.

Feel free to pick your year/month Greg, it's all right there int he charts. That's why I dropped the FULL data NOT selective little data snippets to press confirmation bias, no, I gave the FULL data, total and complete.

Your obviously upset with the data, and searching for how it can be twisted to confirm your feelings. It doesn't. So now your attacking the data, LOL. Saying it's showing too much to people, no, just hide a bunch of the data, lol.

It's become very obvious you don't care for facts, you decided this thread must be an echo-chamber of your feelings, and that is it. There doesn't seem anything more to say to such a person. Good luck with that?

The chain started here. "inventory isn't where it was years ago, but it's increasing not decreasing." Like usual, you are arguing against yourself. No one ever said inventory is up from 10 years ago. Try to read posts before responding.

Inventory IS dropping, it's literally right here in the chart! I mean, it's right in front of your face and your saying "nope, doesn't exist, nope, inventory shooting up" when NO it's not, right here, PROOF.
Your just a Troll, that's it that's all, a Troll who is gonna keep lying and distorting. I'm done with you, your dead to me, good bye.
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Greg R.
OP
Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes
3y
Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Bottom line, inventory is up almost across the board. Yes, some places more than others - of course. However, the deniers were saying that when rates rose and buyers became skeptical that sellers would simply pull out and inventory would tank. However, the opposite has happened - inventory has risen.
I am SO exhausted of LIES! SHOW ME THE DATA! Because I will show the date here below as PROOF your 100% WRONG! That now, inventory is NOT doubling "everywhere coast to coast". You literally just make this sh#t up and just say it, which is based on NOTHING but your FEELINGS. This is what, the 3rd time now I have done a data dump that 100% DISPROVES what your out here saying is so 100% fact "Coast To Coast", and it's not, it's JUST your slice of crappy CA. MOVE!
Months of supply at RECORD lows over last 10yrs.
Days on market all but dead flat at RECORD 10yr low
NEW LISTINGS, yeah, let's look at that, HOW did people react to the rate increases in '22'. WOW, look at that, new listings volume feel off a cliff, RECORD low. Huh, looks like people decided to NOT sell as reaction to high rates.
Oh but Greg says everyone will get pennies on the dollar for there homes. Are we shocked that reality is 100% opposite what Greg says?
TOTAL market dollar volume. Yes, we see the volume reduction right there when rates shot up, yup.
And price per sqft STILL making RECORD highs, STILL, each and every month INCLUDING Dec '22'.
See, the above is what DATA based forecasting looks like, I use actual DATA, math, FACTS to make forecasts. Please Greg, feel free to use actual facts vs your feelings.
Wow!!! Twisting data like usual. My analysis isn't going back years. It's looking at inventory since the bubble. No one ever said inventory is up historically going back 10 years 😂😂

Go back and try to read my posts slowly and carefully. Although it will be challenging, I believe you might be able to comprehend.

Exactly how is showing ALL the data of last 10 years "skewing the data"?????? Please explain that oxymoron.

Feel free to pick your year/month Greg, it's all right there int he charts. That's why I dropped the FULL data NOT selective little data snippets to press confirmation bias, no, I gave the FULL data, total and complete.

Your obviously upset with the data, and searching for how it can be twisted to confirm your feelings. It doesn't. So now your attacking the data, LOL. Saying it's showing too much to people, no, just hide a bunch of the data, lol.

It's become very obvious you don't care for facts, you decided this thread must be an echo-chamber of your feelings, and that is it. There doesn't seem anything more to say to such a person. Good luck with that?

The chain started here. "inventory isn't where it was years ago, but it's increasing not decreasing." Like usual, you are arguing against yourself. No one ever said inventory is up from 10 years ago. Try to read posts before responding.

Inventory IS dropping, it's literally right here in the chart! I mean, it's right in front of your face and your saying "nope, doesn't exist, nope, inventory shooting up" when NO it's not, right here, PROOF.
Your just a Troll, that's it that's all, a Troll who is gonna keep lying and distorting. I'm done with you, your dead to me, good bye.

Ok James... housing inventory is dropping. 🤡🤡🤡
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Greg R.
OP
Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes
3y
Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Bottom line, inventory is up almost across the board. Yes, some places more than others - of course. However, the deniers were saying that when rates rose and buyers became skeptical that sellers would simply pull out and inventory would tank. However, the opposite has happened - inventory has risen.
I am SO exhausted of LIES! SHOW ME THE DATA! Because I will show the date here below as PROOF your 100% WRONG! That now, inventory is NOT doubling "everywhere coast to coast". You literally just make this sh#t up and just say it, which is based on NOTHING but your FEELINGS. This is what, the 3rd time now I have done a data dump that 100% DISPROVES what your out here saying is so 100% fact "Coast To Coast", and it's not, it's JUST your slice of crappy CA. MOVE!
Months of supply at RECORD lows over last 10yrs.
Days on market all but dead flat at RECORD 10yr low
NEW LISTINGS, yeah, let's look at that, HOW did people react to the rate increases in '22'. WOW, look at that, new listings volume feel off a cliff, RECORD low. Huh, looks like people decided to NOT sell as reaction to high rates.
Oh but Greg says everyone will get pennies on the dollar for there homes. Are we shocked that reality is 100% opposite what Greg says?
TOTAL market dollar volume. Yes, we see the volume reduction right there when rates shot up, yup.
And price per sqft STILL making RECORD highs, STILL, each and every month INCLUDING Dec '22'.
See, the above is what DATA based forecasting looks like, I use actual DATA, math, FACTS to make forecasts. Please Greg, feel free to use actual facts vs your feelings.
Wow!!! Twisting data like usual. My analysis isn't going back years. It's looking at inventory since the bubble. No one ever said inventory is up historically going back 10 years 😂😂

Go back and try to read my posts slowly and carefully. Although it will be challenging, I believe you might be able to comprehend.

Exactly how is showing ALL the data of last 10 years "skewing the data"?????? Please explain that oxymoron.

Feel free to pick your year/month Greg, it's all right there int he charts. That's why I dropped the FULL data NOT selective little data snippets to press confirmation bias, no, I gave the FULL data, total and complete.

Your obviously upset with the data, and searching for how it can be twisted to confirm your feelings. It doesn't. So now your attacking the data, LOL. Saying it's showing too much to people, no, just hide a bunch of the data, lol.

It's become very obvious you don't care for facts, you decided this thread must be an echo-chamber of your feelings, and that is it. There doesn't seem anything more to say to such a person. Good luck with that?

The chain started here. "inventory isn't where it was years ago, but it's increasing not decreasing." Like usual, you are arguing against yourself. No one ever said inventory is up from 10 years ago. Try to read posts before responding.

Inventory IS dropping, it's literally right here in the chart! I mean, it's right in front of your face and your saying "nope, doesn't exist, nope, inventory shooting up" when NO it's not, right here, PROOF.
Your just a Troll, that's it that's all, a Troll who is gonna keep lying and distorting. I'm done with you, your dead to me, good bye.

Ok James... housing inventory is dropping. 🤡🤡🤡

Once again thanks James, for reminding us that you don't know what you're talking about and that you're one of the least reliable sources for information that someone can find.

👇 national housing inventory over the last year 👇

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Greg R.
OP
Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes
3y

According to James, the trend line below shows dropping inventory over the last year. 😂😂🤡🤡
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James Hamling
Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
3y
Quote from @Greg R.:

According to James, the trend line below shows dropping inventory over the last year. 😂😂🤡🤡
Hey look at that Greg the liar supreme yet again using selective data to FRADULENTLY make FALSE statements and FLASE accusations, YET AGAIN.
Here is the REAL and COMPLETE data.

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Greg R.
OP
Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes
3y
Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Greg R.:

According to James, the trend line below shows dropping inventory over the last year. 😂😂🤡🤡
Hey look at that Greg the liar supreme yet again using selective data to FRADULENTLY make FALSE statements and FLASE accusations, YET AGAIN.
Here is the REAL and COMPLETE data.

Thanks again for demonstrating to everyone your inability to read and understand posts that you respond to. You also lack the ability to comprehend the difference between a year and a decade. Have fun arguing with your self about data from 2010 and 2017. You are the only person in this chain talking about datasets from 6-13 years ago.
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Michael Wooldridge
Member since 2022 · 485 posts · 216 votes
3y
Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Greg R.:

According to James, the trend line below shows dropping inventory over the last year. 😂😂🤡🤡
Hey look at that Greg the liar supreme yet again using selective data to FRADULENTLY make FALSE statements and FLASE accusations, YET AGAIN.
Here is the REAL and COMPLETE data.

Thanks again for demonstrating to everyone your inability to read and understand posts that you respond to. You also lack the ability to comprehend the difference between a year and a decade. Have fun arguing with your self about data from 2010 and 2017. You are the only person in this chain talking about datasets from 6-13 years ago.

Actually no. As I said earlier nobody said inventory wouldn’t go up from the all time low it has ever been. We all said inventory would remain historically tight. And it has as the chart shows.
But every time I call this out you say you don’t want to dig through hundreds of posts.
And inventory is light which is why costs still haven’t changed much despite the high rates (outside of a few key markets).

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Topic locked
James Hamling
Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
3y

There ya go @Greg R., hey @Carlos Ptriawan maybe you'd like to explain to Greg what all this COMPLETE DATA means. Because he is stuck in his perversion that the end of the world is at hand.
LOOK AT THE COMPLETE DATA Greg. NO, things are NOT collapsing "coast to coast" as you keep LIEING about. Here is FACTS. Yes, in your little CA slice of the world it is probably sh#t, without doubt. CA is NOT the entire country!
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Topic locked
Greg R.
OP
Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes
3y
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

According to James, the trend line below shows dropping inventory over the last year. 😂😂🤡🤡
Hey look at that Greg the liar supreme yet again using selective data to FRADULENTLY make FALSE statements and FLASE accusations, YET AGAIN.
Here is the REAL and COMPLETE data.

Thanks again for demonstrating to everyone your inability to read and understand posts that you respond to. You also lack the ability to comprehend the difference between a year and a decade. Have fun arguing with your self about data from 2010 and 2017. You are the only person in this chain talking about datasets from 6-13 years ago.

Actually no. As I said earlier nobody said inventory wouldn’t go up from the all time low it has ever been. We all said inventory would remain historically tight. And it has as the chart shows.
But every time I call this out you say you don’t want to dig through hundreds of posts.
And inventory is light which is why costs still haven’t changed much despite the high rates (outside of a few key markets).
That's never been what I said or nor my argument. My stance & statement was that in the last year inventory is increasing & not decreasing. Which is true and verifiable. I am countering the argument that inventory will continue to go down and get tighter as buyers pull out of the market.
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James Hamling
Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
3y
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Greg R.:

According to James, the trend line below shows dropping inventory over the last year. 😂😂🤡🤡
Hey look at that Greg the liar supreme yet again using selective data to FRADULENTLY make FALSE statements and FLASE accusations, YET AGAIN.
Here is the REAL and COMPLETE data.

Thanks again for demonstrating to everyone your inability to read and understand posts that you respond to. You also lack the ability to comprehend the difference between a year and a decade. Have fun arguing with your self about data from 2010 and 2017. You are the only person in this chain talking about datasets from 6-13 years ago.

Actually no. As I said earlier nobody said inventory wouldn’t go up from the all time low it has ever been. We all said inventory would remain historically tight. And it has as the chart shows.
But every time I call this out you say you don’t want to dig through hundreds of posts.
And inventory is light which is why costs still haven’t changed much despite the high rates (outside of a few key markets).

Wow, this Greg R. guy, he's just something else. "King Troll" or "King Deceiver" I am not sure which is more appropriate. he now argues "NO, don't look at any data other then this one tiny selected time frame, see, the end of everything is happening, IF you ONLY look at this very specific tiny time-frame and don't consider any context at all".
CONTEXT!
Just as Michael said, NOBODY has said 1 time ever that everything will stay EXACTLY as it was that 1 specific "perfect" month when things were at there most perfect maximum PERFECTION. But you know this Greg R., you are just using diversion, manipulation, distortion to NOT address the facts.
YOU Greg R. keep arguing Real Estate and the economy is "CRASHING" COAST-TO-COAST. That is patently FALSE!
Every time we hit you with documented CHARTED facts, you use ridiculous misdirection arguing.
You make up FALSE statements that none of us have said, you use slander, distortion, selective data. Your obsessed, obsessed and delusional.
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Topic locked
Greg R.
OP
Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes
3y
Quote from @James Hamling:

There ya go @Greg R., hey @Carlos Ptriawan maybe you'd like to explain to Greg what all this COMPLETE DATA means. Because he is stuck in his perversion that the end of the world is at hand.
LOOK AT THE COMPLETE DATA Greg. NO, things are NOT collapsing "coast to coast" as you keep LIEING about. Here is FACTS. Yes, in your little CA slice of the world it is probably sh#t, without doubt. CA is NOT the entire country!

Hey @Carlos Ptriawan maybe you can explain to James how to read posts and perhaps some comprehension techniques. :)
He clearly doesn't understand my point and he's going in circles arguing with himself.
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Topic locked
James Hamling
Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
3y
Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

According to James, the trend line below shows dropping inventory over the last year. 😂😂🤡🤡
Hey look at that Greg the liar supreme yet again using selective data to FRADULENTLY make FALSE statements and FLASE accusations, YET AGAIN.
Here is the REAL and COMPLETE data.

Thanks again for demonstrating to everyone your inability to read and understand posts that you respond to. You also lack the ability to comprehend the difference between a year and a decade. Have fun arguing with your self about data from 2010 and 2017. You are the only person in this chain talking about datasets from 6-13 years ago.

Actually no. As I said earlier nobody said inventory wouldn’t go up from the all time low it has ever been. We all said inventory would remain historically tight. And it has as the chart shows.
But every time I call this out you say you don’t want to dig through hundreds of posts.
And inventory is light which is why costs still haven’t changed much despite the high rates (outside of a few key markets).
That's never been what I said or nor my argument. My stance & statement was that in the last year inventory is increasing & not decreasing. Which is true and verifiable. I am countering the argument that inventory will continue to go down and get tighter as buyers pull out of the market.

Greg, there is no argument here, it's just you making ridiculous statements ignoring FACTS. Look up, I posted all the charts and data pulled today from FRED. It CLEARLY shows in the HOUSING INVENTORY chart, the line goes DOWN. In no world does that = more inventory. Less = less.
Feel free to say it isn't so, it's right there in front of your face. Saying the sun is blue does not make it so.
Look at days on market chart, it's hitting it's seasonal peak, which is at the LOWEST point in 10 years! That is NOT a buyers market in any way shape or form. That is a CLEAR indicator of MORE demand than supply.
You, Greg, have yelled many times in this forum that people are all about under water, in financial risk and will "have to" sell soon. Guess what I got a chart for that too! Look at household obligations as a percentage of DISPOSABLE personal income! It's at a 10 year LOW, meaning home owners have MORE disposable income vs household costs then the last 10 years! PROOF there is no looming "everyones about to go under".
I showed you CO, GA, TX, MN, ALL showing stabilization and inventory LOW's for 10 yr average.
I ALSO show RENTAL VACENCY, which is at all-time LOWS since 2008. Why, because that is housing DEMAND big time. Housing is ALSO acquired to meet rental demand. As I have said before there is EPIC rental unit demand, EPIC pressure there.

I won't mince words Greg, you choose slander as your shield. You have made countless FALSE accusations about me, making it personal. Your a liar, a manipulator, and clearly a cheat. I have a titanium reputation and you do not instill even an iota of fear in me. I have seen your kind before, a clueless bully, who get's by in life by yelling louder and fearing people into submission. I am the granite wall you will smash yourself upon.
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Topic locked
Greg R.
OP
Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes
3y
Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Greg R.:

According to James, the trend line below shows dropping inventory over the last year. 😂😂🤡🤡
Hey look at that Greg the liar supreme yet again using selective data to FRADULENTLY make FALSE statements and FLASE accusations, YET AGAIN.
Here is the REAL and COMPLETE data.

Thanks again for demonstrating to everyone your inability to read and understand posts that you respond to. You also lack the ability to comprehend the difference between a year and a decade. Have fun arguing with your self about data from 2010 and 2017. You are the only person in this chain talking about datasets from 6-13 years ago.

Actually no. As I said earlier nobody said inventory wouldn’t go up from the all time low it has ever been. We all said inventory would remain historically tight. And it has as the chart shows.
But every time I call this out you say you don’t want to dig through hundreds of posts.
And inventory is light which is why costs still haven’t changed much despite the high rates (outside of a few key markets).

Wow, this Greg R. guy, he's just something else. "King Troll" or "King Deceiver" I am not sure which is more appropriate. he now argues "NO, don't look at any data other then this one tiny selected time frame, see, the end of everything is happening, IF you ONLY look at this very specific tiny time-frame and don't consider any context at all".
CONTEXT!
Just as Michael said, NOBODY has said 1 time ever that everything will stay EXACTLY as it was that 1 specific "perfect" month when things were at there most perfect maximum PERFECTION. But you know this Greg R., you are just using diversion, manipulation, distortion to NOT address the facts.
YOU Greg R. keep arguing Real Estate and the economy is "CRASHING" COAST-TO-COAST. That is patently FALSE!
Every time we hit you with documented CHARTED facts, you use ridiculous misdirection arguing.
You make up FALSE statements that none of us have said, you use slander, distortion, selective data. Your obsessed, obsessed and delusional.

James, I find it hilarious that you of all people call me a troll. You are the ultimate troll who throughout this forum has had pie all over your face for all the times you've been proven wrong. Yet, your pride and arrogance is such that you will never admit you were wrong. You just keep digging your hole deeper and deeper.

After going back and forth about this topic 10 times, you still lack the understanding to grasp my original statement and what I'm looking at. At this point I'm convinced that you truly don't have the ability to understand my point.

I stated from the very beginning that I was talking about a certain timeframe. Look at my original post that started this convo with. I even provided a screen shot of that post earlier today. Even then you still lacked the ability to correctly understand the point that was being made.

I'll include it one more time, for the record. Surely not to convince you, because you are completely delusional and have convinced yourself that I'm arguing you about historical data, which I'm not.

The post clearly states that inventory isn't where it was at years ago (duh). No one is arguing with you about inventory from 13 years ago!!! lmao, you are arguing with yourself about that.

I also stated that it's increasing, also DUH. Since Feb 2022 trend line on active listings is UP. This is not a controversial statement Since February 2022 inventory has gone up, not down.

However, I suppose you're going to argue that as well. Because you already did!!! Your exact words "Inventory IS dropping. It's literally right here in the chart!"

Saying inventory is dropping is a present tense statement. You didn't say it has been dropping since 2020, or it has been dropping over the last several years. You said "Inventory IS dropping".

That is a flat out false statement - verifiably so. Since February 2022, almost a year ago inventory has doubled.

But again, you are the master troll, and someone who loves to muddy the waters and deceive others. Because of your pride and arrogance I don't expect you to admit you were wrong.
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Michael Wooldridge
Member since 2022 · 485 posts · 216 votes
3y
@Greg R.I'm starting to fully agree with James here. You are trolling at this point. He's posted multiple times, I've posted a dozen times that nobody ever thought that 2021-2022 inventory would remain. Nobody has ever said that. you can't find a single example of it. EVERYBODY has said inventory will remain, keyword now, historically low. And it has. And in fact the charts James are posting are showing that.
Even in your charts we are still at the lows of covid that we saw the end of 2020 and 2021. It's low, historically low. Which is all everybody has predicted and there are quite a few of those posts in this thread. Now when it gets back to 2015-2016 levels you might have something....
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