Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions.
However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.
Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct.
The market may correct, but I firmly believe there won't be a crash. The reason is simple, equity.
Before 2008 people with no income could get liars loans and buy much more real estate than they could afford. We heard stories of cleaning ladies buying multiple million dollar homes. When home prices starting falling, the whole thing collapses like a house of cards because nobody had any equity. They couldn't sell and get out. We had cascading foreclosures creating a downward spiral.
Recently, prices have been surging. Given the laws passed after the Great Recession, appraisals and lending is highly restricted. Appraisals have not been keeping up with prices and lenders won't lend above appraised value. We sold a house in 2021 and in one day had 20 offers. Several of them had acceleration clauses stating they would pay more than anyone else up to $X. Both of them waived any financing contingency because they KNEW the house wouldn't appraise for what they were offering. They had to make up the difference with cash. Those people have a ton of equity in their homes. If they had to sell, they might take a haircut, but they aren't going to get foreclosed.
There is no house of cards here to come tumbling down.
I guess this is what differentiates regular passive investor and more active investors. For me, things like dollar cost averaging, maxing out 401k during bear market is "not that smart".
Better just take out all the money (buy low sell high), convert it to cash /CD/IBond with guaranteed 9% rate, and put it back to equity when Fed pivots. But when Fed tightens, all 1000% investment manager is taking out their equity investments into cash or buy protection.
If they don't do that, they will be fired and fried LOL
Too hard to guess when is right. Anyone that pulled out with CoVid, lost on record gains those first months of CoVid
Just follow the fed, when they are cutting and stimulating there is a floor on assets, when they are trying to break things be liquid.
People can’t pick the right times to buy and sell. Generally dollar cost averaging beats most active players.
right approach.
right approach.
I guess this is what differentiates regular passive investor and more active investors. For me, things like dollar cost averaging, maxing out 401k during bear market is "not that smart".
Better just take out all the money (buy low sell high), convert it to cash /CD/IBond with guaranteed 9% rate, and put it back to equity when Fed pivots. But when Fed tightens, all 1000% investment manager is taking out their equity investments into cash or buy protection.
If they don't do that, they will be fired and fried LOL
401k is tax free going in. Really hard to beat that, especially if you fall into higher end brackets.
And what investment will be safe and even benefit from it?
Assets, namely those as closely associated with the fundamentals of life. Food, water, shelter. And the "depression commodities"; sex, booze/drugs.
I do hope my question on investments was obvious rhetoricle to those commenting on commodities like @Carlos Ptriawan and @James Hamling - hope I’m not so poor on context that it wasn’t obvious I was referencing houses for us RE investors…. :)
I got it. I still stand by sex and booze though, lol
And what investment will be safe and even benefit from it?
Assets, namely those as closely associated with the fundamentals of life. Food, water, shelter. And the "depression commodities"; sex, booze/drugs.
I do hope my question on investments was obvious rhetoricle to those commenting on commodities like @Carlos Ptriawan and @James Hamling - hope I’m not so poor on context that it wasn’t obvious I was referencing houses for us RE investors…. :)
If you invest in equity long enough ( I know you do ), you will invest in real estate/tech when the rate is low and during tightening policy you invest in commodities. If you open the stock chart comparing QQQ to CRB you will understand what I'm talking about.
It's for this very reason, at this Q3 2022, some natural-export country is having the highest economic growth and record the best inflation of 1%. China's CPI of 2% I guess it comes from the extreme US customer spending that James and you mentioned.
Ask XOM or FCX employee how happy there're at this current moment.
China controls their money more directly than even we do. It’s not the best example. Not to mention they are having massive issues within their economy wiping out fortunes and businesses. Real estate stories over there are hilarious.
China is one that can not be used or compared to anywhere else as any kind of basis of comparison. The construct of the Chinese government is of such that it's more a corporation then a country. Remember this is a country who killed tens of millions without a flinch because of political convenience. They are a whole different thing all together. If they decide it's in there interest, they will halve there currency value tomorrow, or double it, or direct 35 million to invade Taiwan with spears and rocks, they are a whole different thing. They do not fear there populous, don't fear economic swings, they just do what they want to. If China had a famine next year, I wouldn't be surprised if they executed 100m people to ease food demand. It is the definition of a controlled.
And at current pace, hope you teaching your grandkids Mandarin or Cantonese because there gonna need it.
@James Hamling agree on the first part of your post.
The second part of it, learning Mandarin, they said the same thing about my generation (millenial). While I somewhat agree i also think it’s played out a little bit.
That's just my influences speaking. Family is South African, and holly cow it's like an invasion in Africa how the Chinese have come in and taken over. There doing it brilliantly too. Savagely but brilliantly. China is quietly taking over Africa, and the insane resource wealth of it.
I will admit I never understood why the US didn’t look at Africa that way (jewels and metals etc..) Hell Afghanistan was rich in them. At this point we should have just stayed there.
I guess this is what differentiates regular passive investor and more active investors. For me, things like dollar cost averaging, maxing out 401k during bear market is "not that smart".
Better just take out all the money (buy low sell high), convert it to cash /CD/IBond with guaranteed 9% rate, and put it back to equity when Fed pivots. But when Fed tightens, all 1000% investment manager is taking out their equity investments into cash or buy protection.
If they don't do that, they will be fired and fried LOL
401k is tax free going in. Really hard to beat that, especially if you fall into higher end brackets.
I guess this is what differentiates regular passive investor and more active investors. For me, things like dollar cost averaging, maxing out 401k during bear market is "not that smart".
Better just take out all the money (buy low sell high), convert it to cash /CD/IBond with guaranteed 9% rate, and put it back to equity when Fed pivots. But when Fed tightens, all 1000% investment manager is taking out their equity investments into cash or buy protection.
If they don't do that, they will be fired and fried LOL
401k is tax free going in. Really hard to beat that, especially if you fall into higher end brackets.
Generally speaking 401k is always beneficial just from the tax free part going in. It takes really big gains outside of those two elements to overcome - which is why I was confused by Carlos comments.. Especially if you are that worried and people just park it in a safe fund.
Now as to the last point didn’t you say like 8-12 million? If you actually pull out 4.5% annually you will be in that bracket.
Edit: well assuming 12 million thta is.
@James Hamling not the best example because there was a massive Porsche shortage. But I agree 100%. And it’s not so much that people the upper class doesn’t spend disposable income it’s just that they already spend it. To your point lower class lower middle class have much less displayable. Your reasoning is the exact reason I gave the example of food stamps. There are small businesses all across the US that make a good portion of their income off of food stamps. It’s not so much a direct cash infusion to the poor but more to the businesses servicing them.
@Greg H.
Our 2 supermarkets located in NYC see about 19-25% of purchases made with SNAP benefits (EBT Food, EBT Cash, WIC). Pre-pandemic it used to be around 7-15%, a sizeable increase. In theory, if 25% of the business disappeared today we would definitely have to close up shop.
Case in point. I know a lot of businesses rely on this and in communities people wouldn’t think.
Which is why I brought this up in the beginning. The simple truth the wealthy buy what they want generally speaking already. There buying habits don’t necessarily change too much as income goes up or down. Double the income of those making $18k a year or add $10k a year to those making $50k-$60k a year - you better believe they spend it on new toys.
Truthfully not even sure why it was an argument earlier with some.
I would say one is located in a B neighborhood while the other is in a B+, so yes they are not in low-income areas per say.
Funny you mention, my wife works for one of the top 3 companies in the world and handles marketing for LVMH. She basically said what you said, the only people still buying their products today are the ones that are well off and during the times of stimulus there were crystal clear patterns indicating where and what people were spending their money on. Today those patterns have disappeared.
@James Hamling not the best example because there was a massive Porsche shortage. But I agree 100%. And it’s not so much that people the upper class doesn’t spend disposable income it’s just that they already spend it. To your point lower class lower middle class have much less displayable. Your reasoning is the exact reason I gave the example of food stamps. There are small businesses all across the US that make a good portion of their income off of food stamps. It’s not so much a direct cash infusion to the poor but more to the businesses servicing them.
@Greg H.
Our 2 supermarkets located in NYC see about 19-25% of purchases made with SNAP benefits (EBT Food, EBT Cash, WIC). Pre-pandemic it used to be around 7-15%, a sizeable increase. In theory, if 25% of the business disappeared today we would definitely have to close up shop.
Case in point. I know a lot of businesses rely on this and in communities people wouldn’t think.
Which is why I brought this up in the beginning. The simple truth the wealthy buy what they want generally speaking already. There buying habits don’t necessarily change too much as income goes up or down. Double the income of those making $18k a year or add $10k a year to those making $50k-$60k a year - you better believe they spend it on new toys.
Truthfully not even sure why it was an argument earlier with some.
I would say one is located in a B neighborhood while the other is in a B+, so yes they are not in low-income areas per say.
Funny you mention, my wife works for one of the top 3 companies in the world and handles marketing for LVMH. She basically said what you said, the only people still buying their products today are the ones that are well off and during the times of stimulus there were crystal clear patterns indicating where and what people were spending their money on. Today those patterns have disappeared.
Not surprised by the first. I avoid politics like the plague but it’s one thing I always laugh about Republicans when they talk about reducing food stamps. It’s literally hurting small businesses more than anybody. ON the flip side dems and reducing military - sure why not lets put people on unemployment - won’t hurt anything. I’m simplifying of course the examples but in general hate when people suggest world is black and white when it’s pretty much 100% gray.
As to the latter I’ not surprised at all. I heard the same from many companies. Or hell you can even see it in obvious things where all cars - at all pricing tiers - were out of stock. it’s not like the wealthy were suddenly buying up ford mustangs etc… You might see some slight adjustment from the top 15% in terms of maybe taking a less luxurious vacation etc.. but generally speaking their consumption doesn’t change in good or bad economies. Sure somebody might be put off a Porsche or Ferrari purchase for a year but there isn’t enough of those to drive shifts in economies…
Meanwhile products sold on Amazon or at Walmart. Yes the 200 or million or so who shop there include the bottom 50% and they absolutely spend more in times of good economics - simply because they may not have bought everything they wanted before.
Or to put another way if you aren’t looking at prices in the food store, in the first place, you are unlikely to change your buying habits regardless of how expensive that steak now is….
Yeah, I do want the FED to go bankrupt. The Fed should be shut down. We should go back on the gold standard.
Fed going to the gold standard would mean everything would be flipped and broken. Would be horrendous.
One Senator last week drafted a bill asking the country to use the gold standard again.
Nixon severed the dollar from gold in 1971. Unless there has been some major changes to science, last I checked gold does not grow like corn, and to best of knowledge the U.S. has not been buying and stockpiling it like the Chinese. To best of knowledge.
When the dollar was severed from gold, gold was ~ $38 ounce. Today it $1,674 ounce That's a 44x factor.
BUT..... it's said that $1 from 1972 is worth $7.10 today. A touch over 7x
If your scratching your head saying this doesn't make sense, yeah, that's the whole point.
That's the entire point of a fiat currency, and what one can do with it. Today 2022 there is @2.1 TRILLION dollars in currency. The Fed holds $2.05 Trillion of it is in reserve notes, or what we call in common tongue "dollars". Oh yeah, that's right, that pretty green stuff in your pocket, it's NOT money, it's a NOTE. A note owned by the federal reserve.
So if we went "back" to a gold standard guess what, the divide between 7X and 44X, that disparity gap would come due and payable ALL AT ONCE. You think we have troubles today, oh-daddy it's nothing compared to that sh#t storm.
Not to mention the $31 trillion in national debt...... Those are due and payable in that event.
We have, they say, about 140 million ounces, to cover $33Trillion in notes/currency/bonds.
If you sold 140m ounces today, that's ~$224billion, a lot of $ absolutely, and NOTHING in contrast to $33 TRILLION in payables.
The USD would end as world reserve currency, that day. Imports to the U.S. would stop, that day. Ships would turn around at sea, done. The U.S. would get frozen out of world commerce but it wouldn't matter because much of the world would be burning because it's '08' x 1,000! Governments would collapse. Were talking end of days insanity.
Put it this way. Few understand this.
But my M1 or IB account always beat my 401k, why ? because I'm the portfolio manager for my own funds.
The freaking thing about 401k is I can't give protection to the portfolio :-) otherwise, I'm fine with that haha LOL
small kid also knows 401k blabla is good because it's tax free and 50 percent of that is not even my money but that's not the point.
Put it this way. Few understand this.
But my M1 or IB account always beat my 401k, why ? because I'm the portfolio manager for my own funds.
The freaking thing about 401k is I can't give protection to the portfolio :-) otherwise, I'm fine with that haha LOL
small kid also knows 401k blabla is good because it's tax free and 50 percent of that is not even my money but that's not the point.
But by how much does it beat it by? What %? And do you not value your own time? And how much of that valuable time is spent to eek out the little % better (if it’s actually better).
Put it this way. Few understand this.
But my M1 or IB account always beat my 401k, why ? because I'm the portfolio manager for my own funds.
The freaking thing about 401k is I can't give protection to the portfolio :-) otherwise, I'm fine with that haha LOL
small kid also knows 401k blabla is good because it's tax free and 50 percent of that is not even my money but that's not the point.
Yeah I only do max 401k because of the tax deferring/extra pre tax dollars that go in to slosh around with. It costs me 12k out of pocket to get 20k plus 10 more from employer. The funds and options are dogshit though, granted it does have a virtually no fee spx
And what investment will be safe and even benefit from it?
Assets, namely those as closely associated with the fundamentals of life. Food, water, shelter. And the "depression commodities"; sex, booze/drugs.
I do hope my question on investments was obvious rhetoricle to those commenting on commodities like @Carlos Ptriawan and @James Hamling - hope I’m not so poor on context that it wasn’t obvious I was referencing houses for us RE investors…. :)
If you invest in equity long enough ( I know you do ), you will invest in real estate/tech when the rate is low and during tightening policy you invest in commodities. If you open the stock chart comparing QQQ to CRB you will understand what I'm talking about.
It's for this very reason, at this Q3 2022, some natural-export country is having the highest economic growth and record the best inflation of 1%. China's CPI of 2% I guess it comes from the extreme US customer spending that James and you mentioned.
Ask XOM or FCX employee how happy there're at this current moment.
China controls their money more directly than even we do. It’s not the best example. Not to mention they are having massive issues within their economy wiping out fortunes and businesses. Real estate stories over there are hilarious.
China is one that can not be used or compared to anywhere else as any kind of basis of comparison. The construct of the Chinese government is of such that it's more a corporation then a country. Remember this is a country who killed tens of millions without a flinch because of political convenience. They are a whole different thing all together. If they decide it's in there interest, they will halve there currency value tomorrow, or double it, or direct 35 million to invade Taiwan with spears and rocks, they are a whole different thing. They do not fear there populous, don't fear economic swings, they just do what they want to. If China had a famine next year, I wouldn't be surprised if they executed 100m people to ease food demand. It is the definition of a controlled.
And at current pace, hope you teaching your grandkids Mandarin or Cantonese because there gonna need it.
@James Hamling agree on the first part of your post.
The second part of it, learning Mandarin, they said the same thing about my generation (millenial). While I somewhat agree i also think it’s played out a little bit.
That's just my influences speaking. Family is South African, and holly cow it's like an invasion in Africa how the Chinese have come in and taken over. There doing it brilliantly too. Savagely but brilliantly. China is quietly taking over Africa, and the insane resource wealth of it.
I will admit I never understood why the US didn’t look at Africa that way (jewels and metals etc..) Hell Afghanistan was rich in them. At this point we should have just stayed there.
Don't forget oil. Parts of Africa are so rich in oil that it's "harvested" with buckets. I kid you not, it seeps up through the ground. Guys go out with shovels, like digging a sand point well, scoop it up in buckets. Not to mention the timber goes on forever, cane, really you name it Africa has endless amounts of it, every natural resource imaginable, mostly un-tapped.
I don't understand the U.S. priorities, they make no sense.
I guess this is what differentiates regular passive investor and more active investors. For me, things like dollar cost averaging, maxing out 401k during bear market is "not that smart".
Better just take out all the money (buy low sell high), convert it to cash /CD/IBond with guaranteed 9% rate, and put it back to equity when Fed pivots. But when Fed tightens, all 1000% investment manager is taking out their equity investments into cash or buy protection.
If they don't do that, they will be fired and fried LOL
401k is tax free going in. Really hard to beat that, especially if you fall into higher end brackets.
Generally speaking 401k is always beneficial just from the tax free part going in. It takes really big gains outside of those two elements to overcome - which is why I was confused by Carlos comments.. Especially if you are that worried and people just park it in a safe fund.
Now as to the last point didn’t you say like 8-12 million? If you actually pull out 4.5% annually you will be in that bracket.
Edit: well assuming 12 million thta is.
I don’t think I’ll pull out that much. I live on 400-500k currently and am paying student loans, mortgages, cars and would not have any of those bills in retirement hopefully
There were a few months I paid 8,000$ monthly for childcare… I’m expecting to make less go a lot further.
That's just my influences speaking. Family is South African, and holly cow it's like an invasion in Africa how the Chinese have come in and taken over. There doing it brilliantly too. Savagely but brilliantly. China is quietly taking over Africa, and the insane resource wealth of it.
I will admit I never understood why the US didn’t look at Africa that way (jewels and metals etc..) Hell Afghanistan was rich in them. At this point we should have just stayed there.
There are a few major reasons why China has explosive growth (while a comment from James about China is a very typical lazy western cowboy that confuses why China is now growing faster than the west LOL just kidding)
- they maximize their production capacity in the service manufacturing industry. Basically, they're the maker of everything with controlled-labour cost
- they do not follow the game of the developed western model that depends on central bank action that creates a bull and bear cycle thru monetary intervention although they're actively hedging their currency by buying a higher number of US bonds so their financial system can't easily be manipulated by US (Yellen is complaining about this today)
- their labour participation is almost like 100%, if there're more labour 'unemployed', the country finds the project (mainly infrastructure) for them, overseas. For them supply doesn't need to follow demand but they keep continuously creating new projects and supply, even when demand may not be there.
- their debt model is following like 50-100 years loan with a lot of private NDA. Project must use maximum participation of their labours.
I guess this is what differentiates regular passive investor and more active investors. For me, things like dollar cost averaging, maxing out 401k during bear market is "not that smart".
Better just take out all the money (buy low sell high), convert it to cash /CD/IBond with guaranteed 9% rate, and put it back to equity when Fed pivots. But when Fed tightens, all 1000% investment manager is taking out their equity investments into cash or buy protection.
If they don't do that, they will be fired and fried LOL
401k is tax free going in. Really hard to beat that, especially if you fall into higher end brackets.
Generally speaking 401k is always beneficial just from the tax free part going in. It takes really big gains outside of those two elements to overcome - which is why I was confused by Carlos comments.. Especially if you are that worried and people just park it in a safe fund.
Now as to the last point didn’t you say like 8-12 million? If you actually pull out 4.5% annually you will be in that bracket.
Edit: well assuming 12 million thta is.
I don’t think I’ll pull out that much. I love on 400-500k currently and am paying student loans, mortgages, cars and would not have any of those bills in retirement hopefully
I definitely get it. I’ve been doing some updated financial planning, retirement planning, and running through the Amex (apparently I need to pay attention to my cable bill more since it’s been out of contract and gone up $100 a month). All that aside while I could see some higher end spending in retirement as we take quite a few vacations (maybe add a beach house), build a final home (I need 4 car double deep garage with room for car lifts) and buy some stuff we probably don’t need.
Outside of the initial purchase of some of those things. It does seem like you get back down to a more normal level. It’s hard to tell though because I’m not sure how many trips we will take etc…
I am looking forward to going nuts on a few things like cars (always had to control my love of cars for long term investments which I won’t do in retirement) and the custom home build to the exact specifications my wife and I want.
Still I have a feeling by the time we settle into retirement later (shooting for 55) that by 65-68 our spend will be down to a semi reasonable level.
Funny that’s the one thing I don’t get about the general public. I actually enjoy building spreadsheets not only around my future but my spend today so I can find ways to earn more now or set aside more to have that much more in an early retirement. I like to plan, don’t get the not planning part.
edit - @Edward Kanive woah how the hell $8k on childcare? That’s crazy high.
That's just my influences speaking. Family is South African, and holly cow it's like an invasion in Africa how the Chinese have come in and taken over. There doing it brilliantly too. Savagely but brilliantly. China is quietly taking over Africa, and the insane resource wealth of it.
I will admit I never understood why the US didn’t look at Africa that way (jewels and metals etc..) Hell Afghanistan was rich in them. At this point we should have just stayed there.
There are a few major reasons why China has explosive growth (while a comment from James about China is a very typical lazy western cowboy that confuses why China is now growing faster than the west LOL just kidding)
- they maximize their production capacity in the service manufacturing industry. Basically, they're the maker of everything with controlled-labour cost
- they do not follow the game of the developed western model that depends on central bank action that creates a bull and bear cycle thru monetary intervention although they're actively hedging their currency by buying a higher number of US bonds so their financial system can't easily be manipulated by US (Yellen is complaining about this today)
- their labour participation is almost like 100%, if there're more labour 'unemployed', the country finds the project (mainly infrastructure) for them, overseas. For them supply doesn't need to follow demand but they keep continuously creating new projects and supply, even when demand may not be there.
- their debt model is following like 50-100 years loan with a lot of private NDA. Project must use maximum participation of their labours.
I don’t think I’ll pull out that much. I live on 400-500k currently and am paying student loans, mortgages, cars and would not have any of those bills in retirement hopefully
There were a few months I paid 8,000$ monthly for childcare… I’m expecting to make less go a lot further.
Put some of those into a Private Interval Fund / Closed End Interval Fund (Accredited Investor only), the good thing about these funds are you get good yield like 6-7% p.a. conservatively in a diversified Finance market without losing a single penny from valuation so you are safe from market volatility.
That's just my influences speaking. Family is South African, and holly cow it's like an invasion in Africa how the Chinese have come in and taken over. There doing it brilliantly too. Savagely but brilliantly. China is quietly taking over Africa, and the insane resource wealth of it.
I will admit I never understood why the US didn’t look at Africa that way (jewels and metals etc..) Hell Afghanistan was rich in them. At this point we should have just stayed there.
There are a few major reasons why China has explosive growth (while a comment from James about China is a very typical lazy western cowboy that confuses why China is now growing faster than the west LOL just kidding)
- they maximize their production capacity in the service manufacturing industry. Basically, they're the maker of everything with controlled-labour cost
- they do not follow the game of the developed western model that depends on central bank action that creates a bull and bear cycle thru monetary intervention although they're actively hedging their currency by buying a higher number of US bonds so their financial system can't easily be manipulated by US (Yellen is complaining about this today)
- their labour participation is almost like 100%, if there're more labour 'unemployed', the country finds the project (mainly infrastructure) for them, overseas. For them supply doesn't need to follow demand but they keep continuously creating new projects and supply, even when demand may not be there.
- their debt model is following like 50-100 years loan with a lot of private NDA. Project must use maximum participation of their labours.
They benefit by becoming the only other superpower in the world and an economic powerhouse. I don’t really see how the US can stop using China or how China can stop using the US - so we are very symbiotic to be honest. but they definitely benefit. JUst don’t see how they can meaningfully leap us without a massive change in things we cannot predict right now.
That's just my influences speaking. Family is South African, and holly cow it's like an invasion in Africa how the Chinese have come in and taken over. There doing it brilliantly too. Savagely but brilliantly. China is quietly taking over Africa, and the insane resource wealth of it.
I will admit I never understood why the US didn’t look at Africa that way (jewels and metals etc..) Hell Afghanistan was rich in them. At this point we should have just stayed there.
There are a few major reasons why China has explosive growth (while a comment from James about China is a very typical lazy western cowboy that confuses why China is now growing faster than the west LOL just kidding)
- they maximize their production capacity in the service manufacturing industry. Basically, they're the maker of everything with controlled-labour cost
- they do not follow the game of the developed western model that depends on central bank action that creates a bull and bear cycle thru monetary intervention although they're actively hedging their currency by buying a higher number of US bonds so their financial system can't easily be manipulated by US (Yellen is complaining about this today)
- their labour participation is almost like 100%, if there're more labour 'unemployed', the country finds the project (mainly infrastructure) for them, overseas. For them supply doesn't need to follow demand but they keep continuously creating new projects and supply, even when demand may not be there.
- their debt model is following like 50-100 years loan with a lot of private NDA. Project must use maximum participation of their labours.
They benefit by becoming the only other superpower in the world and an economic powerhouse. I don’t really see how the US can stop using China or how China can stop using the US - so we are very symbiotic to be honest. but they definitely benefit. JUst don’t see how they can meaningfully leap us without a massive change in things we cannot predict right now.
I don’t think I’ll pull out that much. I live on 400-500k currently and am paying student loans, mortgages, cars and would not have any of those bills in retirement hopefully
There were a few months I paid 8,000$ monthly for childcare… I’m expecting to make less go a lot further.
Put some of those into a Private Interval Fund / Closed End Interval Fund (Accredited Investor only), the good thing about these funds are you get good yield like 6-7% p.a. conservatively in a diversified Finance market without losing a single penny from valuation so you are safe from market volatility.