Housing crash deniers ???

Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes

Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions.

However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.

Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct.

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Greg ScottPro Member

Rental Property Investor · SE Michigan · Member since 2014 · 4k+ posts · 6k+ votes

The market may correct, but I firmly believe there won't be a crash. The reason is simple, equity.

Before 2008 people with no income could get liars loans and buy much more real estate than they could afford. We heard stories of cleaning ladies buying multiple million dollar homes. When home prices starting falling, the whole thing collapses like a house of cards because nobody had any equity. They couldn't sell and get out. We had cascading foreclosures creating a downward spiral.

Recently, prices have been surging. Given the laws passed after the Great Recession, appraisals and lending is highly restricted. Appraisals have not been keeping up with prices and lenders won't lend above appraised value. We sold a house in 2021 and in one day had 20 offers. Several of them had acceleration clauses stating they would pay more than anyone else up to $X. Both of them waived any financing contingency because they KNEW the house wouldn't appraise for what they were offering. They had to make up the difference with cash. Those people have a ton of equity in their homes. If they had to sell, they might take a haircut, but they aren't going to get foreclosed.

There is no house of cards here to come tumbling down.

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Greg R.
OP
Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes
3y
Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
The Fed quite open on their plan this time. My job as investor is just to ride the wave, it's a beautiful game if you understand how they make the game LOL.

Nothing random. It's well planned, well-organized by them.

For example, Mr Powell already announced they will sell 350 billion assets starting tomorrow, so expect stock market to go lower til 1/1/2023
Helocs add dollars to the system, velocity of money. Phantom equity sitting in no man’s land doing nothing isn’t intlationary.

jobs are just now starting to be lost. Have you seen all the layoffs being implemented? It’s not just a few companies.

a “x” percent drop in jobs lost does not equate to a linear drop in real estate values.

Yup. All the talk about "how strong the employment market is" was all just smoke and mirrors published by the politicians. Look at how many companies are down 40%, 50% ++ YTD. What do you think they are going to do? Cut payroll. Payroll shows very clearly on a P&L.

Let's see what Meta does this week. They are expecting to announce "large-scale" layoffs to their employees. They currently employ over 80k employees.

Twitter just cut half of it's workforce.

If the R's take over the house and senate, there's a chance we'll see an end to all of these reckless spending bills that have been kicking the can down the road.

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Carlos Ptriawan
Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
3y
Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
The Fed quite open on their plan this time. My job as investor is just to ride the wave, it's a beautiful game if you understand how they make the game LOL.

Nothing random. It's well planned, well-organized by them.

For example, Mr Powell already announced they will sell 350 billion assets starting tomorrow, so expect stock market to go lower til 1/1/2023
Helocs add dollars to the system, velocity of money. Phantom equity sitting in no man’s land doing nothing isn’t intlationary.

jobs are just now starting to be lost. Have you seen all the layoffs being implemented? It’s not just a few companies.

a “x” percent drop in jobs lost does not equate to a linear drop in real estate values.

Yup. All the talk about "how strong the employment market is" was all just smoke and mirrors published by the politicians. Look at how many companies are down 40%, 50% ++ YTD. What do you think they are going to do? Cut payroll. Payroll shows very clearly on a P&L.
Dude all tech company is guaranteed to be down 40-80% when interest rate hikes . The valuation should be down because interest rate changes the rate expected of valuation earning and dollar is rising. This will impact the most to company that doesn't generate cashflow especially.

But at the same time you have company like Exxon and Walmart that print record revenue as well. Even if there's bear market it's very specific and regional. Not all tech is experiencing that. It's company-specific.
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Greg R.
OP
Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes
3y
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Chris Clothier:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

People who think the housing market is not experiencing declines despite rates in the 7's and hyperinflation (not to mention the data) are quite comical to me.

Do you mean Zillow and Freddie Mac is comical :) LOL LOL
Again, you need to get out of the day trader mindset. National median SOLD prices are declining at an annualized rate of over 18%. It's not going to fall off a cliff over night.
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Michael Wooldridge
Member since 2022 · 485 posts · 216 votes
3y
Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Nicholas L.:

@John Carbone
@John Carbone
I still don't think I understand the big deal around phantom equity. I probably had some myself. I bought a new primary in 2019. Refinanced into a low, fixed rate. So if my primary jumped up from what I paid for it in 2019 to something silly in 2021 or 2022 and is now back down... so what? I didn't tap it, don't need it, and am not a seller.
Is this just a sign of the reduction in prices? Or a cause for concern? Or both? Won't the biggest 'losses' be in primary residences that are above or significantly above the national median? Will it hurt investors?

It's just pointing out the facts. Over the summer it was assumed everyone had the equity they thought they had, but once rates increased sharply, it instantly vanished. We are now slowly seeing that realized in the market with declining home values. HELOC's have been a big contributor to inflation, so having values drop and rates rise virtually nobody will be doing them anymore which is good for the fed. The biggest concern is for peak buyers who panic from the drops or are forced to sell. There is a lot of psychology of someone paying 500K for a house last summer and being told by banks it's worth 350-400k for an average primary owner. Logically they are better off staying put, but to those people You can see some irrational decisions up to and including handing back the keys. I just read recently up to 70 percent of homebuyers regretted their purchase during Covid already…. We won't see the end of this until likely next year, but I do know values won't be higher a year from now.

Agree with the psychological aspect. But where are you seeing properties that fit this:

"There is a lot of psychology of someone paying 500K for a house last summer and being told by banks it’s worth 350-400k for an average primary owner."

That's 20-25% on essentially median values. I don't think there is a market in the country that has hit that, not even close. The big hits have been on the higher end as called out and certainly not to that degree.

Or is this just back to what you are predicting because the above example hasn't' come into play.... at least yet.
Yeah, next year. The stage is already set with the buyers remorse already. Once they realize they can’t pull equity from it, and next year when they see the value is negative 20 percent, it could trigger additional sell offs from the fear which is why I don’t rule out upwards of 30 percent drops due to the final wave of irrational people pushing values too low.

So I’ll just say 30% on essentially median ($500k is only slightly above median) would mean essentially 40% drop if you factor in inflation. You don’t think that’s a bit out there in left field? Almost 50% drop on the most stable asset in history?

dude october data is out.
active inventory: -5% YOY
active new listing: -25% YOY

There're more buyer than seller, most likely price is either flat or slow growth, Mr. market has been tested with 7% rate, surprisingly it's doing well.

That's a single data point. I haven't seen the data yet post on Redfin or other sites that provide analytics.

You're starting to sound like a day trader who claims the market is making monumental moves based on real-time shifts that you're watching.

As I've been saying, this isn't going to happen over night. This market is going to take a while to show the impacts of rates in the 7s.

So I agree. However the initial data point is showing less people selling. Which is the first behavior you would expect. As far as time, how much time? By Junish I expect the fed to start announcing changes to rates and once it’s directionally happening good luck pushing down prices.
I don’t think you have a very big window if you all want/expect 25-30% drops down, which I’m going to keep calling out is really more like 35-40%…..

So your prediction is built on the cornerstone of the fed making certain moves in 8 months. These guys don't know what the market is going to do or look like in a a few weeks. But we're supposed to believe that we can predict, with precision, what they're going to do in almost a year.

No my prediction is based off of data. It has been all along. With an election coming it would be nuts to think they won’t trend back down if inflation is under control. Given the direction of that….
Do I expect rates to be lower this time next year than they are now? yep. Why wouldn’t they be?

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Michael Wooldridge
Member since 2022 · 485 posts · 216 votes
3y
Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Chris Clothier:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

People who think the housing market is not experiencing declines despite rates in the 7's and hyperinflation (not to mention the data) are quite comical to me.

Do you mean Zillow and Freddie Mac is comical :) LOL LOL
Again, you need to get out of the day trader mindset. National median SOLD prices are declining at an annualized rate of over 18%. It's not going to fall off a cliff over night.

Would love to see this data showing 18% on national median home sale price decline…..
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Greg R.
OP
Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes
3y
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Chris Clothier:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

People who think the housing market is not experiencing declines despite rates in the 7's and hyperinflation (not to mention the data) are quite comical to me.

Do you mean Zillow and Freddie Mac is comical :) LOL LOL
Again, you need to get out of the day trader mindset. National median SOLD prices are declining at an annualized rate of over 18%. It's not going to fall off a cliff over night.

Would love to see this data showing 18% on national median home sale price decline…..

Do the math. Look at the decline since May and annualize it. June, July, August, & September.
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Michael Wooldridge
Member since 2022 · 485 posts · 216 votes
3y
Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Chris Clothier:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

People who think the housing market is not experiencing declines despite rates in the 7's and hyperinflation (not to mention the data) are quite comical to me.

Do you mean Zillow and Freddie Mac is comical :) LOL LOL
Again, you need to get out of the day trader mindset. National median SOLD prices are declining at an annualized rate of over 18%. It's not going to fall off a cliff over night.

Would love to see this data showing 18% on national median home sale price decline…..

Do the math. Look at the decline since May and annualize it. June, July, August, & September.

Like I said I’d love to see this “national”. I think you are little too focused on Dallas and Austin.

Anyway here is the median national info:

The link if you want to dig in yourself: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/se...
Not seeing a national decline…..
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Carlos Ptriawan
Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
3y
Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Chris Clothier:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

People who think the housing market is not experiencing declines despite rates in the 7's and hyperinflation (not to mention the data) are quite comical to me.

Do you mean Zillow and Freddie Mac is comical :) LOL LOL
Again, you need to get out of the day trader mindset. National median SOLD prices are declining at an annualized rate of over 18%. It's not going to fall off a cliff over night.

Would love to see this data showing 18% on national median home sale price decline…..

Do the math. Look at the decline since May and annualize it. June, July, August, & September.

Why are you so tirelessly announcing there is the national home sale price.
The worst market was our market, it's exactly dropped 13%, but since then it rebound to 6%. It's very mild.

Do you understand what's the definition of hyperinflation ? hyperinflation only happened if inflation is reaching 50% and above.
We don't have hyperinflation. When the Fed destroy money like 50% of the new money that they printed in 2020, the inflation would be down
after a while as money is gone from circulation.

It's a basic economic class if you ever attend one. They will maintain this state for 1-2 year.
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Greg R.
OP
Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes
3y
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Chris Clothier:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

People who think the housing market is not experiencing declines despite rates in the 7's and hyperinflation (not to mention the data) are quite comical to me.

Do you mean Zillow and Freddie Mac is comical :) LOL LOL
Again, you need to get out of the day trader mindset. National median SOLD prices are declining at an annualized rate of over 18%. It's not going to fall off a cliff over night.

Would love to see this data showing 18% on national median home sale price decline…..

Do the math. Look at the decline since May and annualize it. June, July, August, & September.

Like I said I’d love to see this “national”. I think you are little too focused on Dallas and Austin.

Anyway here is the median national info:

The link if you want to dig in yourself: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/se...
Not seeing a national decline…..
So is the data on Redfin inaccurate? Or are you looking at YOY or something else? Peak of bubble was May, We're looking at declines since the peak of the bubble.

1
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Michael Wooldridge
Member since 2022 · 485 posts · 216 votes
3y
Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Chris Clothier:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

People who think the housing market is not experiencing declines despite rates in the 7's and hyperinflation (not to mention the data) are quite comical to me.

Do you mean Zillow and Freddie Mac is comical :) LOL LOL
Again, you need to get out of the day trader mindset. National median SOLD prices are declining at an annualized rate of over 18%. It's not going to fall off a cliff over night.

Would love to see this data showing 18% on national median home sale price decline…..

Do the math. Look at the decline since May and annualize it. June, July, August, & September.

Like I said I’d love to see this “national”. I think you are little too focused on Dallas and Austin.

Anyway here is the median national info:

The link if you want to dig in yourself: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/se...
Not seeing a national decline…..
So is the data on Redfin inaccurate? Or are you looking at YOY or something else? Peak of bubble was May, We're looking at declines since the peak of the bubble.

Lots of sources out there. I’d say it’s likely in between but Redfin is not perfect no. The Fed is probably more accurate for historical data.

All that aside even Redfin is 9%. So where is the 18%?
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Carlos Ptriawan
Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
3y

So is the data on Redfin inaccurate? Or are you looking at YOY or something else? Peak of bubble was May, We're looking at declines since the peak of the bubble.

Yes.Try to use Zillow and you will see the reduction nationally is only 1K. There's a technical reason why there's difference between Redfin and Zillow.

Honestly, you have to examine the drop in max 8 markets only, as the impact is quite regional. Try to analyze Austin.

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Greg R.
OP
Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes
3y
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Chris Clothier:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

People who think the housing market is not experiencing declines despite rates in the 7's and hyperinflation (not to mention the data) are quite comical to me.

Do you mean Zillow and Freddie Mac is comical :) LOL LOL
Again, you need to get out of the day trader mindset. National median SOLD prices are declining at an annualized rate of over 18%. It's not going to fall off a cliff over night.

Would love to see this data showing 18% on national median home sale price decline…..

Do the math. Look at the decline since May and annualize it. June, July, August, & September.

Like I said I’d love to see this “national”. I think you are little too focused on Dallas and Austin.

Anyway here is the median national info:

The link if you want to dig in yourself: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/se...
Not seeing a national decline…..
So is the data on Redfin inaccurate? Or are you looking at YOY or something else? Peak of bubble was May, We're looking at declines since the peak of the bubble.

Lots of sourced out there. I’d say it’s likely in between but Redfin is not perfect no. The Fed is probably more accurate for historical data.

All that aside even Redfin is 9%. So where is the 18%?

Peak of bubble was May. Since May we have June, July, August, and Sep (4 months of reported data). May was median sold price of $430,310. September is $403,556. So from June-Sep (a 4 month period) prices dropped 6.2xxx%. Annualize that (12 months), and you get your 18%+.

0
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Greg R.
OP
Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes
3y
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

So is the data on Redfin inaccurate? Or are you looking at YOY or something else? Peak of bubble was May, We're looking at declines since the peak of the bubble.

Yes.Try to use Zillow and you will see the reduction nationally is only 1K. There's a technical reason why there's difference between Redfin and Zillow.

Honestly, you have to examine the drop in max 8 markets only, as the impact is quite regional. Try to analyze Austin.
I have no reason to doubt the accuracy of Redfin data. Tell me, what does Zillow show as the median sold price in May, and then in Sep?
0
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Greg R.
OP
Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes
3y
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Chris Clothier:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

People who think the housing market is not experiencing declines despite rates in the 7's and hyperinflation (not to mention the data) are quite comical to me.

Do you mean Zillow and Freddie Mac is comical :) LOL LOL
Again, you need to get out of the day trader mindset. National median SOLD prices are declining at an annualized rate of over 18%. It's not going to fall off a cliff over night.

Would love to see this data showing 18% on national median home sale price decline…..

Do the math. Look at the decline since May and annualize it. June, July, August, & September.

Like I said I’d love to see this “national”. I think you are little too focused on Dallas and Austin.

Anyway here is the median national info:

The link if you want to dig in yourself: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/se...
Not seeing a national decline…..
So is the data on Redfin inaccurate? Or are you looking at YOY or something else? Peak of bubble was May, We're looking at declines since the peak of the bubble.

Lots of sources out there. I’d say it’s likely in between but Redfin is not perfect no. The Fed is probably more accurate for historical data.

All that aside even Redfin is 9%. So where is the 18%?
The data your citing is quarterly. So you can't analyze data that spans two (or more) quarters, but does not include the entire quarter.
0
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Michael Wooldridge
Member since 2022 · 485 posts · 216 votes
3y
Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Chris Clothier:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

People who think the housing market is not experiencing declines despite rates in the 7's and hyperinflation (not to mention the data) are quite comical to me.

Do you mean Zillow and Freddie Mac is comical :) LOL LOL
Again, you need to get out of the day trader mindset. National median SOLD prices are declining at an annualized rate of over 18%. It's not going to fall off a cliff over night.

Would love to see this data showing 18% on national median home sale price decline…..

Do the math. Look at the decline since May and annualize it. June, July, August, & September.

Like I said I’d love to see this “national”. I think you are little too focused on Dallas and Austin.

Anyway here is the median national info:

The link if you want to dig in yourself: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/se...
Not seeing a national decline…..
So is the data on Redfin inaccurate? Or are you looking at YOY or something else? Peak of bubble was May, We're looking at declines since the peak of the bubble.

Lots of sourced out there. I’d say it’s likely in between but Redfin is not perfect no. The Fed is probably more accurate for historical data.

All that aside even Redfin is 9%. So where is the 18%?
Peak of bubble was May. Since may we have June, July, August, and Sep (4 months of reported data). May was median sold price of $430,310. September is $403,556. So from June-Sep (a 4 month period) prices dropped 6.2xxx%. Annualize that (12 months), and you get your 18%+.

Yeah man I can’t believe I’m saying but this is perfect post for @James Hamling to respond to in his own unique way….

@Greg R. so your suggestion is take a 4 month period where it dropped and just times it by 3 and thats the annual return? Not pay attention to trajectory and general direction? That’s not how it works. Your own data even shows it flatlining the last few months….

is that how you calculated growth when things are good?
1
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Carlos Ptriawan
Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
3y
Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

So is the data on Redfin inaccurate? Or are you looking at YOY or something else? Peak of bubble was May, We're looking at declines since the peak of the bubble.

Yes.Try to use Zillow and you will see the reduction nationally is only 1K. There's a technical reason why there's difference between Redfin and Zillow.

Honestly, you have to examine the drop in max 8 markets only, as the impact is quite regional. Try to analyze Austin.
I have no reason to doubt the accuracy of Redfin data. Tell me, what does Zillow show as the median sold price in May, and then in Sep?

Jun 359k
Sep 358k

You need to understand about statistical error that I mentioned earlier. If there're 100 houses, and two 2 million houses experiencing -35% price reduction, it doesn't mean the rest of 98 houses are having the same issue.

This price reduction is extremely specific after I investigated. I can send the whole PDF for our market if you like.
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Greg R.
OP
Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes
3y
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Chris Clothier:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

People who think the housing market is not experiencing declines despite rates in the 7's and hyperinflation (not to mention the data) are quite comical to me.

Do you mean Zillow and Freddie Mac is comical :) LOL LOL
Again, you need to get out of the day trader mindset. National median SOLD prices are declining at an annualized rate of over 18%. It's not going to fall off a cliff over night.

Would love to see this data showing 18% on national median home sale price decline…..

Do the math. Look at the decline since May and annualize it. June, July, August, & September.

Like I said I’d love to see this “national”. I think you are little too focused on Dallas and Austin.

Anyway here is the median national info:

The link if you want to dig in yourself: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/se...
Not seeing a national decline…..
So is the data on Redfin inaccurate? Or are you looking at YOY or something else? Peak of bubble was May, We're looking at declines since the peak of the bubble.

Lots of sourced out there. I’d say it’s likely in between but Redfin is not perfect no. The Fed is probably more accurate for historical data.

All that aside even Redfin is 9%. So where is the 18%?
Peak of bubble was May. Since may we have June, July, August, and Sep (4 months of reported data). May was median sold price of $430,310. September is $403,556. So from June-Sep (a 4 month period) prices dropped 6.2xxx%. Annualize that (12 months), and you get your 18%+.

Yeah man I can’t believe I’m saying but this is perfect post for @James Hamling to respond to in his own unique way….

@Greg R. so your suggestion is take a 4 month period where it dropped and just times it by 3 and thats the annual return? Not pay attention to trajectory and general direction? That’s not how it works. Your own data even shows it flatlining the last few months….

Yeah, I guess it would be a good idea to summon James if you want someone to post a 6 paragraph rant of nonsense to muddy the waters.

And in the 4 months since the peak, there has been decline every month. Some months more than others, but the trajectory has been down.

I'm not picking a random 4 month period in time. We should be able to universally agree that prices peaked in May. So I'm looking at post-peak prices.
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Michael Wooldridge
Member since 2022 · 485 posts · 216 votes
3y
Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Chris Clothier:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

People who think the housing market is not experiencing declines despite rates in the 7's and hyperinflation (not to mention the data) are quite comical to me.

Do you mean Zillow and Freddie Mac is comical :) LOL LOL
Again, you need to get out of the day trader mindset. National median SOLD prices are declining at an annualized rate of over 18%. It's not going to fall off a cliff over night.

Would love to see this data showing 18% on national median home sale price decline…..

Do the math. Look at the decline since May and annualize it. June, July, August, & September.

Like I said I’d love to see this “national”. I think you are little too focused on Dallas and Austin.

Anyway here is the median national info:

The link if you want to dig in yourself: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/se...
Not seeing a national decline…..
So is the data on Redfin inaccurate? Or are you looking at YOY or something else? Peak of bubble was May, We're looking at declines since the peak of the bubble.

Lots of sourced out there. I’d say it’s likely in between but Redfin is not perfect no. The Fed is probably more accurate for historical data.

All that aside even Redfin is 9%. So where is the 18%?
Peak of bubble was May. Since may we have June, July, August, and Sep (4 months of reported data). May was median sold price of $430,310. September is $403,556. So from June-Sep (a 4 month period) prices dropped 6.2xxx%. Annualize that (12 months), and you get your 18%+.

Yeah man I can’t believe I’m saying but this is perfect post for @James Hamling to respond to in his own unique way….

@Greg R. so your suggestion is take a 4 month period where it dropped and just times it by 3 and thats the annual return? Not pay attention to trajectory and general direction? That’s not how it works. Your own data even shows it flatlining the last few months….

Yeah, I guess it would be a good idea to summon James if you want someone to post a 6 paragraph rant of nonsense to muddy the waters.

And in the 4 months since the peak, there has been decline every month. Some months more than others, but the trajectory has been down.

I'm not picking a random 4 month period in time. We should be able to universally agree that prices peaked in May. So I'm looking at post-peak prices.

I’m not interested in being quite so blunt as he is. But he would have a field day with this. Agree May was the peak but you are literally taking the prime peak and the initial trough but then suggestion that will happen annually.

Instead lets look at this:
July 411k - August $405k - September $403k…
What do you want to bet October is over $400k? Those same 3 months are showing exactly what it is going with. And the direction is no where near your 18%.

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Topic locked
Greg R.
OP
Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes
3y
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Chris Clothier:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

People who think the housing market is not experiencing declines despite rates in the 7's and hyperinflation (not to mention the data) are quite comical to me.

Do you mean Zillow and Freddie Mac is comical :) LOL LOL
Again, you need to get out of the day trader mindset. National median SOLD prices are declining at an annualized rate of over 18%. It's not going to fall off a cliff over night.

Would love to see this data showing 18% on national median home sale price decline…..

Do the math. Look at the decline since May and annualize it. June, July, August, & September.

Like I said I’d love to see this “national”. I think you are little too focused on Dallas and Austin.

Anyway here is the median national info:

The link if you want to dig in yourself: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/se...
Not seeing a national decline…..
So is the data on Redfin inaccurate? Or are you looking at YOY or something else? Peak of bubble was May, We're looking at declines since the peak of the bubble.

Lots of sourced out there. I’d say it’s likely in between but Redfin is not perfect no. The Fed is probably more accurate for historical data.

All that aside even Redfin is 9%. So where is the 18%?
Peak of bubble was May. Since may we have June, July, August, and Sep (4 months of reported data). May was median sold price of $430,310. September is $403,556. So from June-Sep (a 4 month period) prices dropped 6.2xxx%. Annualize that (12 months), and you get your 18%+.

Yeah man I can’t believe I’m saying but this is perfect post for @James Hamling to respond to in his own unique way….

@Greg R. so your suggestion is take a 4 month period where it dropped and just times it by 3 and thats the annual return? Not pay attention to trajectory and general direction? That’s not how it works. Your own data even shows it flatlining the last few months….

Yeah, I guess it would be a good idea to summon James if you want someone to post a 6 paragraph rant of nonsense to muddy the waters.

And in the 4 months since the peak, there has been decline every month. Some months more than others, but the trajectory has been down.

I'm not picking a random 4 month period in time. We should be able to universally agree that prices peaked in May. So I'm looking at post-peak prices.

I’m not interested in being quite so blunt as he is. But he would have a field day with this. Agree May was the peak but you are literally taking the prime peak and the initial trough but then suggestion that will happen annually.

Instead lets look at this:
July 411k - August $405k - September $403k…
What do you want to bet October is over $400k? Those same 3 months are showing exactly what it is going with. And the direction is no where near your 18%.
Per Redfin:
June $427,168
July: $411,941
August: $405,856
Sep: $403,556

Let's wait to see, no need to speculate. Annualized rate isn't set in stone, I said that we're currently on pace, which is true. The pace can slow down or speed up. I'm expecting it to continue to go down, especially through the winter months.

I'm not going to look at a single month and scream "see!". Let this play out over the next 5-6 months, let's see where median sold prices are in March, April. My bet is that they'll be down.
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Topic locked
Carlos Ptriawan
Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
3y
Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Chris Clothier:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

And in the 4 months since the peak, there has been decline every month. Some months more than others, but the trajectory has been down.
If you said the trajectory is down, then it's correct. Freddie Mac say we are going down until August 2023. But only down 1.5%, that number you may not like I guess :-)
0
Topic locked
Greg R.
OP
Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes
3y
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Chris Clothier:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

And in the 4 months since the peak, there has been decline every month. Some months more than others, but the trajectory has been down.
If you said the trajectory is down, then it's correct. Freddie Mac say we are going down until August 2023. But only down 1.5%, that number you may not like I guess :-)

Good to know that an inept federal agency knows what's going to happen a year out. Maybe you can ask them for the winning Powerball numbers. I hear it's up to 2 billion now. Powerball is a day or two out, so this should be a no-brainer for them compared to fortune telling a year out.
Didn't want to edit out my original comment... Freddie actually "operates under a congressional charter" - this is for the smarty pants who are going to come in and state that they're not a federal agency.

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Topic locked
Michael Wooldridge
Member since 2022 · 485 posts · 216 votes
3y
Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Chris Clothier:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

And in the 4 months since the peak, there has been decline every month. Some months more than others, but the trajectory has been down.
If you said the trajectory is down, then it's correct. Freddie Mac say we are going down until August 2023. But only down 1.5%, that number you may not like I guess :-)

Good to know that an inept federal agency knows what's going to happen a year out. Maybe you can ask them for the winning Powerball numbers. I hear it's up to 2 billion now. Powerball is a day or two out, so this should be a no-brainer for them compared to fortune telling a year out.

Ok going to channel my inner James. Pretty harsh for somebody not using a trend line talking about trajectory…..
0
Topic locked
James Hamling
Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
3y
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Chris Clothier:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

People who think the housing market is not experiencing declines despite rates in the 7's and hyperinflation (not to mention the data) are quite comical to me.

Do you mean Zillow and Freddie Mac is comical :) LOL LOL
Again, you need to get out of the day trader mindset. National median SOLD prices are declining at an annualized rate of over 18%. It's not going to fall off a cliff over night.

Would love to see this data showing 18% on national median home sale price decline…..

Do the math. Look at the decline since May and annualize it. June, July, August, & September.

Like I said I’d love to see this “national”. I think you are little too focused on Dallas and Austin.

Anyway here is the median national info:

The link if you want to dig in yourself: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/se...
Not seeing a national decline…..
So is the data on Redfin inaccurate? Or are you looking at YOY or something else? Peak of bubble was May, We're looking at declines since the peak of the bubble.

Lots of sourced out there. I’d say it’s likely in between but Redfin is not perfect no. The Fed is probably more accurate for historical data.

All that aside even Redfin is 9%. So where is the 18%?
Peak of bubble was May. Since may we have June, July, August, and Sep (4 months of reported data). May was median sold price of $430,310. September is $403,556. So from June-Sep (a 4 month period) prices dropped 6.2xxx%. Annualize that (12 months), and you get your 18%+.

Yeah man I can’t believe I’m saying but this is perfect post for @James Hamling to respond to in his own unique way….

@Greg R. so your suggestion is take a 4 month period where it dropped and just times it by 3 and thats the annual return? Not pay attention to trajectory and general direction? That’s not how it works. Your own data even shows it flatlining the last few months….

Yeah, I guess it would be a good idea to summon James if you want someone to post a 6 paragraph rant of nonsense to muddy the waters.

And in the 4 months since the peak, there has been decline every month. Some months more than others, but the trajectory has been down.

I'm not picking a random 4 month period in time. We should be able to universally agree that prices peaked in May. So I'm looking at post-peak prices.

I’m not interested in being quite so blunt as he is. But he would have a field day with this. Agree May was the peak but you are literally taking the prime peak and the initial trough but then suggestion that will happen annually.

Instead lets look at this:
July 411k - August $405k - September $403k…
What do you want to bet October is over $400k? Those same 3 months are showing exactly what it is going with. And the direction is no where near your 18%.

OMG Really.......
Please, feel free to tell me exactly where in the graph below is "the bubble", of this decline that is supposedly happening everywhere..... Bueler..... Bueler....... Bueler.......
Congratulations, you found A market that has SOME decline, yeah for you. Guess what, CA is NOT the United States. Seriously, how many flipping times do I gotta come on and smack people into reality. The disinformation is EXHAUSTING. As many, MANY of us have said from day 1 there will be localized market variations, THERE ALWAYS IS. I guarantee that during the boom of last couple years there is some markets out there somewhere that were struggling, maybe there coal mine got shut down, of whatever. Point is local market variations ARE NOT THE WHOLE.
This doomsday moron class of people who just refuse to step out of there cave and accept reality for what it is.....
And this graph below, it's not some poh-dunk backwater nowhere, it's a MAJOR national market. So where is the collapse? At what point will you people accept reality, admit the sky is not falling, when, how many months of NO collapse does it take?
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Topic locked
Greg R.
OP
Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes
3y
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Chris Clothier:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

And in the 4 months since the peak, there has been decline every month. Some months more than others, but the trajectory has been down.
If you said the trajectory is down, then it's correct. Freddie Mac say we are going down until August 2023. But only down 1.5%, that number you may not like I guess :-)

Good to know that an inept federal agency knows what's going to happen a year out. Maybe you can ask them for the winning Powerball numbers. I hear it's up to 2 billion now. Powerball is a day or two out, so this should be a no-brainer for them compared to fortune telling a year out.

Ok going to channel my inner James. Pretty harsh for somebody not using a trend line talking about trajectory…..
Just saying... if you need to start summoning and "channeling" James, you've lost the argument 😂😂
0
Topic locked
Michael Wooldridge
Member since 2022 · 485 posts · 216 votes
3y
Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Chris Clothier:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

And in the 4 months since the peak, there has been decline every month. Some months more than others, but the trajectory has been down.
If you said the trajectory is down, then it's correct. Freddie Mac say we are going down until August 2023. But only down 1.5%, that number you may not like I guess :-)

Good to know that an inept federal agency knows what's going to happen a year out. Maybe you can ask them for the winning Powerball numbers. I hear it's up to 2 billion now. Powerball is a day or two out, so this should be a no-brainer for them compared to fortune telling a year out.

Ok going to channel my inner James. Pretty harsh for somebody not using a trend line talking about trajectory…..
Just saying... if you need to start summoning and "channeling" James, you've lost the argument 😂😂

I don’t always agree with James but he makes a lot of valid points. As he did above. I just didn’t want to be quite so blunt but when you posted Redfin data for 18% and then told me how you calculated. Candidly I wanted to say some pretty blunt things.
Your own data doesn’t show what you claim not even a bit…
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Topic locked