By the Numbers: Sunbelt superstars with weak economic indicators

By the Numbers: Sunbelt superstars with weak economic indicators

Investor · New York, NY · Member since 2019 · 31 posts · 20 votes

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita is often cited as a measurement of a nation's development or economic capacity. However, we rarely or never read much about Gross Metropolitan Product (GMP) per capita.  GMP measures a metro area's output based on national prices for goods and services. If we look at GMP per capita (from U.S. Census) we can gain additional perspective on the vitality of the area's economy.  

As you can see below, the bottom 10 includes some Rustbelt metros, but also several superstar growth metros in the Sunbelt: 

Top 10 Metros for GMP/capita (of largest 53 metros)

  1. San Jose
  2. San Francisco
  3. Seattle
  4. Boston
  5. Washington DC
  6. New York
  7. Los Angeles
  8. Hartford
  9. Dallas
  10. Denver

Bottom 10 Metros for GMP/capita (lowest first)

  1. Riverside, CA
  2. Tucson, AZ
  3. Tampa - St. Petersburg, FL
  4. Las Vegas
  5. Jacksonville, FL
  6. Providence, RI
  7. Phoenix, AZ
  8. Buffalo, NY
  9. Rochester, NY
  10. Orlando, NY

How are investors among the Bigger Pockets community who own properties in the bottom 10 metros experienceing the effects of of lower GMPs?  How is it affecting rent growth or vacancies in single family rentals and multifamily buildings?  How is it affecting performance and leases of retail and office properties?  What asset types are performing better in these areas in relation to others?

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  • Specialist · Riverside, CA · Member since 2015 · 6k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    6y

    @Tom De Napoli noticing essentially zero effect Riverside and it's metro area seems to be doing just fine and rent growth is strong.

  • Investor · New York, NY · Member since 2019 · 31 posts · 20 votes
    6y
    Thanks Aaron!  Real estate is a ground level game -- I appreciate you sharing your first-hand experience!

    Originally posted by @Aaron K.:

    @Tom De Napoli noticing essentially zero effect Riverside and it's metro area seems to be doing just fine and rent growth is strong.

  • Realtor · Dallas - Fort Worth Metroplex, TX · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 925 votes
    6y
  • Omaha, NE · Member since 2018 · 9 posts · 1 vote
    6y

    Tom De Napoli is this data from the US Census. I curious to check it out for the Midwest area. Thanks

  • Investor · New York, NY · Member since 2019 · 31 posts · 20 votes
    6y

    @Edem Dosseh, sources are US Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis

  • Omaha, NE · Member since 2018 · 9 posts · 1 vote
    6y
  • Investor · Riverside, CA · Member since 2016 · 129 posts · 67 votes
    6y

    @Tom De Napoli Could you please provide a link to the specific BEA data set you are referring to? Thanks

  • Investor · New York, NY · Member since 2019 · 31 posts · 20 votes
    6y

    @Rob Moran - Sure, here’s  the link.  


  • Investor · Riverside, CA · Member since 2016 · 129 posts · 67 votes
    6y

    @Tom De Napoli thanks Tom but I’m not finding the GMP figures you cite. I see the GDP figures but not the others. 

  • Investor · New York, NY · Member since 2019 · 31 posts · 20 votes
    6y
    Look at the GDP by metropolitan area.

    Originally posted by @Rob Moran:

    @Tom De Napoli thanks Tom but I’m not finding the GMP figures you cite. I see the GDP figures but not the others. 

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