$3.4B value of a life? 593 deaths $2 trillion stimulus

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$3.4B value of a life? 593 deaths $2 trillion stimulus

Kirk R.
Peoria, IL · Member since 2013 · 967 posts · 383 votes

Where's the BP Pandemic life value spreadsheet that feeds into the rental property calculator? :(

Doing these kinds of calculations just feels depressing.


$200k Ford Pinto Value of a human life 1972 (1)
$10M EPA Value of a human life 2016 (2)
$3.4B CV Value of a human life March 24, 2020 (sadly most likely will go down quickly as more deaths occur)

593 cv deaths 46k cases March 24 in us (3)
Highest potential US death number I've seen is 1.7M. (4)

What 1,000,000,000,000 (trillion T) looks like. 1st time I've ever used the T.
1.7M deaths x$10M is = 17,000,000,000,000 ($17 trillion)
$2 trillion proposed stimulus package (6)
$21T 2019 us GDP (7)

330M us citizens.
52 million > 65 yrs old
death rates
.5% 15 to 65 (5)
2.7% over 65 (5)


$2T/$10M = 200,000 deaths saved?

$2T/593 current deaths = $3.4B/death

$2T/1.7M deaths = $1,176,470



OBVIOUSLY, Hopefully CV disappears quickly. Or a Vaccine is discovered. If it drags on, maybe high risk people isolate. Everyone else buys a mask washes their hands & life continues. Also helpful Test kits, PPE for health care, & Ventilators become available.
Finding good numbers/data for this was really tough with how quickly things are changing. IMO this is what fed government should be doing.

..................

little scared creating this topic.

I would think that government economists in conjunction with cdc would have already run these numbers & passed them to congress & the senate to use some logic on the stimulus package. but like the pandemic office is gone, maybe the leadership got rid of the economists too. or the economists are afraid to show such a report because leadership might look at the page number of the report & think that was the current #of cases in the us (sarcasm). "Different numbers. All different numbers. Very large numbers. And some small numbers too, by the way."

sources:
(1)https://users.wfu.edu/palmitar...
(2)https://www.bloomberg.com/grap...
(3)https://coronavirus.1point3acr...
(4)https://www.google.com/amp/s/w...
(5)https://www.statnews.com/2020/...
(6)https://www.google.com/amp/s/a...
(7)https://countryeconomy.com/gdp...

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Jeff C.
Real Estate Broker · Bakersfield, CA · Member since 2018 · 269 posts · 597 votes
6y

Well, there will obviously be many more deaths still yet.. but also, the aggregate economic loss from the shutdown and reverberating effects is going to be far greater than just what the government spends on stimulus. These numbers will be argued about for decades to come, and entirely incalculable because what we are really concerned with is the number of deaths that DIDN'T occur because of the measures taken, which will always be unknowable.

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  • Jeff C.
    Real Estate Broker · Bakersfield, CA · Member since 2018 · 269 posts · 597 votes
    6y

    Well, there will obviously be many more deaths still yet.. but also, the aggregate economic loss from the shutdown and reverberating effects is going to be far greater than just what the government spends on stimulus. These numbers will be argued about for decades to come, and entirely incalculable because what we are really concerned with is the number of deaths that DIDN'T occur because of the measures taken, which will always be unknowable.

    4Reply
  • Kirk R.
    OP
    Peoria, IL · Member since 2013 · 967 posts · 383 votes
    6y
    Originally posted by @Jeff C.:

    Well, there will obviously be many more deaths still yet.. but also, the aggregate economic loss from the shutdown and reverberating effects is going to be far greater than just what the government spends on stimulus. These numbers will be argued about for decades to come, and entirely incalculable because what we are really concerned with is the number of deaths that DIDN'T occur because of the measures taken, which will always be unknowable.

     what we are really concerned with is the number of deaths that DIDN'T occur because of the measures taken, which will always be unknowable.

    "Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones." :) 

    Crunching the numbers did really help put it into perspective. 

    early on Another BPer posted something like. ok 90 dead & the other 330 million are gonna lose everything we've got. 

    1Reply
  • Account Closed
    Riverside, CA · Member since 2017 · 412 posts · 296 votes
    6y
    Originally posted by @Kirk R.:

    Where's the BP Pandemic life value spreadsheet that feeds into the rental property calculator? :(

    Doing these kinds of calculations just feels depressing.


    $200k Ford Pinto Value of a human life 1972 (1)
    $10M EPA Value of a human life 2016 (2)
    $3.4B CV Value of a human life March 24, 2020 (sadly most likely will go down quickly as more deaths occur)

    593 cv deaths 46k cases March 24 in us (3)
    Highest potential US death number I've seen is 1.7M. (4)

    What 1,000,000,000,000 (trillion T) looks like. 1st time I've ever used the T.
    1.7M deaths x$10M is = 17,000,000,000,000 ($17 trillion)
    $2 trillion proposed stimulus package (6)
    $21T 2019 us GDP (7)

    330M us citizens.
    52 million > 65 yrs old
    death rates
    .5% 15 to 65 (5)
    2.7% over 65 (5)


    $2T/$10M = 200,000 deaths saved?

    $2T/593 current deaths = $3.4B/death

    $2T/1.7M deaths = $1,176,470



    OBVIOUSLY, Hopefully CV disappears quickly. Or a Vaccine is discovered. If it drags on, maybe high risk people isolate. Everyone else buys a mask washes their hands & life continues. Also helpful Test kits, PPE for health care, & Ventilators become available.
    Finding good numbers/data for this was really tough with how quickly things are changing. IMO this is what fed government should be doing.

    ..................

    little scared creating this topic.

    I would think that government economists in conjunction with cdc would have already run these numbers & passed them to congress & the senate to use some logic on the stimulus package. but like the pandemic office is gone, maybe the leadership got rid of the economists too. or the economists are afraid to show such a report because leadership might look at the page number of the report & think that was the current #of cases in the us (sarcasm). "Different numbers. All different numbers. Very large numbers. And some small numbers too, by the way."

    sources:
    (1)https://users.wfu.edu/palmitar...
    (2)https://www.bloomberg.com/grap...
    (3)https://coronavirus.1point3acr...
    (4)https://www.google.com/amp/s/w...
    (5)https://www.statnews.com/2020/...
    (6)https://www.google.com/amp/s/a...
    (7)https://countryeconomy.com/gdp...

    Great points.
    But, it's outdated already, I'm afraid.
    Larry Kudlow said today that it will be closer to $6,000,000,000 - six trillions dollars, not two trillion. Sigh . . .
    0Reply
  • Kirk R.
    OP
    Peoria, IL · Member since 2013 · 967 posts · 383 votes
    6y
    But, it's outdated already, I'm afraid.
    Larry Kudlow said today that it will be closer to $6,000,000,000 - six trillions dollars, not two trillion. Sigh . . .

    Thanks.  Yeah it is moving extremely quickly.  You've got 6 billion.  need 3 more zeroes for trillion.  What's after trillion (gazillion) ? my 1st time using these large of nunbers.  Maybe one day my real estate empire will be worth "1 gazillion dollars!" 

    1Reply
  • Account Closed
    Riverside, CA · Member since 2017 · 412 posts · 296 votes
    6y
    Originally posted by @Kirk R.:
    But, it's outdated already, I'm afraid.
    Larry Kudlow said today that it will be closer to $6,000,000,000 - six trillions dollars, not two trillion. Sigh . . .

    Thanks.  Yeah it is moving extremely quickly.  You've got 6 billion.  need 3 more zeroes for trillion.  What's after trillion (gazillion) ? my 1st time using these large of nunbers.  Maybe one day my real estate empire will be worth "1 gazillion dollars!" 

    Here is a billion dollars in $100 bills


    Here is a trillion dollars in $100 dollar bills - You have to look
    closely but that is a full grown man next two a double stack of pallets

    So, here is Two Trillion dollars in $100 dollar bills

    1Reply
  • Kirk R.
    OP
    Peoria, IL · Member since 2013 · 967 posts · 383 votes
    6y

    Mind boggling how much money is on the move.  At some point, i would think someone has to pay.  Or hoping the Fed working its magic does not accidentally cut its lovely assistant in half. 

    quadrillion is after trillion. 

    0Reply
  • Account Closed
    Rental Property Investor · Oakland, CA · Member since 2014 · 730 posts · 1k+ votes
    6y

    @Kirk R. Crazy how $4 trillion is being given out and not a single dollar will come to me nor my family (other than rent money flowing thru tenants)

    0Reply
  • Kirk R.
    OP
    Peoria, IL · Member since 2013 · 967 posts · 383 votes
    6y
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

    @Kirk R. Crazy how $4 trillion is being given out and not a single dollar will come to me nor my family (other than rent money flowing thru tenants)

     too much money came in last year? 

    0Reply
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