Will people leave cities post COVID 19?
Real Estate Agent · Spokane, WA & North Idaho · Member since 2017 · 135 posts · 170 votes
Will people leave cities post COVID 19?
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Real Estate Agent · Washington, D.C. · Member since 2012 · 17k+ posts · 30k+ votes
6yNo.
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196 Replies
- Realtor · Cleveland, OH · Member since 2015 · 2k+ posts · 857 votes6y
IF companies allow employee to work from home more often then I do see the move happen.
Why would you need to be close to an office that you only go into 2-3days a week? - Real Estate Agent · Spokane, WA & North Idaho · Member since 2017 · 135 posts · 170 votes6y
Originally posted by @Federico Gutierrez:
IF companies allow employee to work from home more often then I do see the move happen.
Why would you need to be close to an office that you only go into 2-3days a week?Absolutely, I've lived in some crappy places in the past just to be close to the office. In the next decade the "office" could become a thing of the past.
- 6yMartin NealPro MemberRental Property Investor · Chicago, IL · Member since 2017 · 293 posts · 383 votes
@Phil Wells People are creatures of habit. It’s a big decision to move, leaving behind family and friends. I don’t think we will see a big shift.
- Investor · Austin, TX · Member since 2020 · 3 posts · 9 votes6y
As with most tech workers, I've been WFH since March and will continue to do so until end of August. Our office is evaluating whether to extend that until EOY.
One of my coworkers just sold his home and moved a hour out of town to a more rural area. He said he will commute 1-2 days a week if needed. He's still crushing his sales goals, so I imagine the company will be OK with that. If not, he said he'll find a new job that is fully remote.
I've also been sent a handful of job listings on LinkedIn that the recruiters say will be 100% remote even after COVID.
Since all I need is my computer, I'm currently looking to rent a place out of the country for a month or two to "Work From Home" in the Caribbean... I'm ready to book the first thing I can find with an actual computer desk!
I imagine others are thinking the same thing. - Specialist · Plano, TX · Member since 2020 · 2k+ posts · 861 votes6y
I think people are moving closer to family members. Whether it's the city or not, people want to be closer to people they know and love after experiencing a pandemic.
- Real Estate Agent · Spokane, WA & North Idaho · Member since 2017 · 135 posts · 170 votes6y
Originally posted by @Marlen Weber:
I think people are moving closer to family members. Whether it's the city or not, people want to be closer to people they know and love after experiencing a pandemic.
I think you're right. The main reason people move around the country is for work. People may stop moving away and even end up coming back to where their family is as you suggested.
- Member since 2020 · 20 posts · 5 votes6y
@Ujwal Velagapudi
Facebook can look into reevaluating salaries all they want but if they want to keep they're talent they have to keep paying top dollar for them. Remote work is not new and I know of many software architects, engineers, db admins, who all work from home 90 - 100% of the time. I'm curious to see who offers "former" Facebook employees remote work, at the same rate as an on-site employee. The days of brick and mortar businesses are slowly coming to an end.
As for the topic at hand a lot of people love the city life and the atmosphere so remote or not it won't change anything. Businesses however will be looking to cut they're overhead when they realize they don't need the space and can perform business functions virtually. This will be the determining factor. There is a sense of structure and professionalism when clients walk into a business so it will be very interesting what companies adopt.
- Member since 2020 · 89 posts · 45 votes6y
I live in NYC and I do think there will be a huge impact. Young families will probably move right to the suburbs whereas they may have raised kids in the city otherwise. A lot of my friends have been “thinking” of moving away from the city for years but never made the change. This is now a catalyst for them to finally have the courage to try living somewhere new.
About half of my friends are looking to move in the fall. That’s probably not the norm, but I think there will be major shifts in the fall & another after the holidays. Many companies are being vague about their policies still, so people are waiting to find out what their options are for remote work long term.
- Flipper/Rehabber · Memphis, TN · Member since 2020 · 758 posts · 285 votes6y
I don't think that a lot of people will leave the cities. They might transfer to other cities though. But some people might leave the cities if they see greater opportunities somewhere else.
- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes6y
@Phil Wells the post and premise of the new market disruptor reminds me of the old adage that "the first one through the wall always gets bloody". I believe your really ahead of the ball here. I recall when a few "nut jobs" were talking about how one day we would all be shopping from home on our Gateway PC, and 99% of us laughed at them. A few years later 89%, then 50%, and now Bezos is set to become the first Trillionaire.
Most often major market disruptors seem completely obvious in hindsight, yet completely unbelievable at the onset.
In my area we have a large CapitalOne headquarters, one of their main national hubs, with covid they had to rapidly implement remote working for the entire staff, and they did. I was speaking with a person from there who will remain un-named about how it's gone and he said the funny thing is productivity has gone through the roof, they have been hitting numbers they could only have dreamed of before, and it's being watched very closely from top-down. I mentioned the expense of there giant high rise and he gave me that telltale side smile, the one that we all know as "your spot on, and I can't say a word".
It's a well known established metric for a home buyer; schools and proximity to work. Well, we are in a technology age where for a great many positions consist of functions that are fully capable of being completed from a home office, it has been the culture and habits we have that say we must work from an office, that's how it has to be for things to work. Along came COVID and removed choice, it forced us to either embrace remote working or in many cases not work, and so we embraced it.
We are now past that hump of experimentation, we are now in a time or considering do we want to bring all staff back into office, not "we need to", and with that comes the consideration of cost vs benefit. In addition it spurs the expanding thoughts, if we can run these jobs effectively remotely, wow, we could hire remotely, maybe hire where cost of labor is half????
Without doubt this will impact where people live, in a very big way. How can I say very big way, review what the top job sectors have been the last several years, the list is dominated by tech jobs, jobs that are the best candidates for remote working. Who is the biggest demographics that have been focusing on main metropolitan housing, it's that same grouping that's concentrated in the tech sector. So yes, this may be the beginning, of the beginning, of a paradigm shift.
I believe the moves will be along the line of the remaining consumer motives combined with some of the age old drivers such as good schools, low crime, good internet, nice weather, cool things to see & do, and convenience in food. Shopping, well that's moved to Amazon in a big way so that is becoming less and less a factor isn't it.
In the end, this is nothing new, neighborhoods move through cycles, many C/D areas are loaded with giant mansion-like homes because once upon a time that was an actual mansion and the area was an A+ area, things changed.
- Realtor · Cleveland, OH · Member since 2015 · 2k+ posts · 857 votes6y
Have to think aswell the economic impact.
How much did this cost NYC, you can't charge all the people that die the bill? The government has to get back the money some how and that would be through property taxes or some form of tax on the people.
- Real Estate Agent · Spokane, WA & North Idaho · Member since 2017 · 135 posts · 170 votes6y
Originally posted by @James Hamling:
@Phil Wells the post and premise of the new market disruptor reminds me of the old adage that "the first one through the wall always gets bloody". I believe your really ahead of the ball here. I recall when a few "nut jobs" were talking about how one day we would all be shopping from home on our Gateway PC, and 99% of us laughed at them. A few years later 89%, then 50%, and now Bezos is set to become the first Trillionaire.
Most often major market disruptors seem completely obvious in hindsight, yet completely unbelievable at the onset.
In my area we have a large CapitalOne headquarters, one of their main national hubs, with covid they had to rapidly implement remote working for the entire staff, and they did. I was speaking with a person from there who will remain un-named about how it's gone and he said the funny thing is productivity has gone through the roof, they have been hitting numbers they could only have dreamed of before, and it's being watched very closely from top-down. I mentioned the expense of there giant high rise and he gave me that telltale side smile, the one that we all know as "your spot on, and I can't say a word".
It's a well known established metric for a home buyer; schools and proximity to work. Well, we are in a technology age where for a great many positions consist of functions that are fully capable of being completed from a home office, it has been the culture and habits we have that say we must work from an office, that's how it has to be for things to work. Along came COVID and removed choice, it forced us to either embrace remote working or in many cases not work, and so we embraced it.
We are now past that hump of experimentation, we are now in a time or considering do we want to bring all staff back into office, not "we need to", and with that comes the consideration of cost vs benefit. In addition it spurs the expanding thoughts, if we can run these jobs effectively remotely, wow, we could hire remotely, maybe hire where cost of labor is half????
Without doubt this will impact where people live, in a very big way. How can I say very big way, review what the top job sectors have been the last several years, the list is dominated by tech jobs, jobs that are the best candidates for remote working. Who is the biggest demographics that have been focusing on main metropolitan housing, it's that same grouping that's concentrated in the tech sector. So yes, this may be the beginning, of the beginning, of a paradigm shift.
I believe the moves will be along the line of the remaining consumer motives combined with some of the age old drivers such as good schools, low crime, good internet, nice weather, cool things to see & do, and convenience in food. Shopping, well that's moved to Amazon in a big way so that is becoming less and less a factor isn't it.
In the end, this is nothing new, neighborhoods move through cycles, many C/D areas are loaded with giant mansion-like homes because once upon a time that was an actual mansion and the area was an A+ area, things changed.
I love this response and I'm glad the premise has been thought provoking for you. I'm going to be watching this trend very closing over the course of the next ten years to see how it plays out!
- Real Estate Agent · Spokane, WA & North Idaho · Member since 2017 · 135 posts · 170 votes6y
Originally posted by @Charlie Anne:
I live in NYC and I do think there will be a huge impact. Young families will probably move right to the suburbs whereas they may have raised kids in the city otherwise. A lot of my friends have been “thinking” of moving away from the city for years but never made the change. This is now a catalyst for them to finally have the courage to try living somewhere new.
About half of my friends are looking to move in the fall. That’s probably not the norm, but I think there will be major shifts in the fall & another after the holidays. Many companies are being vague about their policies still, so people are waiting to find out what their options are for remote work long term.
I'd be genuinely interested to know what you and your friends do over the short term ahead. I've sent you a connection request.
- Developer · Austin, TX · Member since 2020 · 19 posts · 3 votes6y
@Phil Wells
From my perspective of living in one of the biggest cities in the world, answer is no. No one that I know or think of is going to move to suburbs, or anywhere else, this is going to be forgotten very quickly.
- Pleasanton, CA · Member since 2016 · 73 posts · 48 votes6y
Depends on the particular City demographics but I can already tell you there is a grand exodus in the bay area. Rents are down 10% and falling.
As @Joshua Rice said, there was already a WFH culture particularly in tech. Most people worked from home Friday's anyway and others took a a day or two in the middle of the week.
Cities with a high cost of living will feel the affects a lot more. Why pay City rent without the city life?
- los angeles, CA · Member since 2017 · 31 posts · 5 votes6y
Short answer is It won’t be large enough of popular to leave a city so that it can impact housing price (to fall) and a particular area to raise
Besides the infrastructure that many talks about, there is the input and output of labor and skilled workers, Currently the market has C amount of jobs that are WFH-able, and let’s say that is 10,000 of Software engineers in this example, the current 10,000 of engineer can decide to move to less expensive area so to speak, but most of them will not, I will explain later, you see in order for the FB or google to continue to hire SE they need to have continuous input of student into the top schools, which are mostly in better areas so to speak, FB and google in this case won’t just hire anyone, so in order for less student to go to bigger cities where better education is offered, that city needs to have a better school, and public school doesn’t fund over night, so you get the idea, then for those who lives in say LA Bay Area, if they decided to move, they will need to move to an area where good education can be offered, and they won’t be there “cheaper in price” area that we are thinking about.
LA has always see a shortage in housing and that will continue to get worsen, for those that moves to TX, it’s mainly being dragged by Companies moving to TX therefore the migration, of say FB decided to move to a smaller town out of no where then yes we can see that to follow, but just a WFH policy will not lead enough people to move, lastly is that no local government will incentivize enough to bring people in their cities, like what TX is doing, because simply if they haven’t they didn’t have the resource or not being able t offer incentive for the big companies to come in therefore bringing up RE and commercial Revenue stream, those that wanted to move, has a reason to move long time ago, could be cost of living has been pushing them out, or being closer to family, and now it just gave them one more reason to act on it, but WFH itself will not be a trend to get people moving.
- Philadelphia, PA · Member since 2017 · 824 posts · 1k+ votes6y
Originally posted by @Alex West:
@Joe P.
So I was thinking of house hacking in Philadelphia, I've been keeping a close eye on the market and there are over 30 new listings a day on MLS sites this month (a slight exaggeration with every day).
What would be your analysis on this movement? Are people just reacting to unemployment & renting //or work from home away from the city?
Since the city is comprised of many different neighborhoods, different price points, and different criterion, it's hard to say. I'm also not an agent, so I don't have any discernible insights into the market itself. All that being said, I'd say the MLS listings going up are a result of things getting close to reopening with covid. Activity that was supposed to occur over the last couple of months can finally occur, and you're seeing that small but mighty flood into the MLS. If an agent in our area wants to refute that, they can, and I welcome it...but that's my suspicion.
- Real Estate Agent · Chicago, IL · Member since 2017 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes6y
No. Cities are hot spots for social life. Young professionals want to be by there favorite restaurants and social group.
- Member since 2020 · 437 posts · 675 votes6y
Families will definitely think twice if they want to keep living in dense cities or move to adjacent towns. For some moving may be pragmatic and for some others it may not be so.
People live in the city to experience life and have access to the best jobs and they will tell you they are happy paying $4000 for the apartment than go live out in the suburbs. The energy, convenience and excitement of city living is one that cannot be matched.
My own observation is it has more to do with age and demographics than financial status. Young people like to live in cities. They are there to work and socialize and have a well rounded life while they are young with no responsibilities.
As people progress through life, get older and married, suburban life becomes more comfortable and it gets to be more efficient once people have kids. This is how it’s been forever.
That said if you have lived in Manhattan like I have there are millions of families who live in cramped apartments (or even nice ones) and they might think of moving out given Covid. Not sure if they will or they can given work, commute or school options.
I know more than half a dozen families who have relocated to the countryside for the time being given it may be a tad risky to live in a high rise in Manhattan.
- 6yNicholas L.Pro MemberFlipper/Rehabber · Pittsburgh · Member since 2018 · 6k+ posts · 5k+ votes
@Phil Wells it's an interesting question, thanks for starting this thread. I think the US is big enough, and still growing enough, that some people may leave cities in the wake of covid AND the attractive cities will also continue to grow. There's another thread going on BP about the supposed "exodus" from California, and I think the same principle applies. It's inarguable that California is not growing as fast as it was in the 1990s and early 2000s - and also that more residents are leaving than are moving in - but that's just one measure: domestic migration, not overall growth. So, just as California isn't actually about to start shrinking even as growth crests, so it goes with the trendy cities.
- Rental Property Investor · Tacoma, WA · Member since 2019 · 1 post · 1 vote6y
@Phil Wells Great topic and very possible
I do believe a large shift could happen and downtown office sectors being effected the most. I understand that people still want to live downtown and be close to retail, restaurants, & attractions but I also know a lot of people live downtown bc it’s close to their office.
If a company that pays rent on 100,000+ sq ft of office space and just realized they can almost operate at full strength without that office space, why wouldn’t they keep a “headquarters” but make it 10x smaller?
And if you wfh full time, would most prefer a 600 sq ft apartment to live/work in or a home with an office in it and land around it(for the same price or less, +equity)? I know there are negatives to homeownership and not everybody wants the required maintenance that comes along with it.
Maybe office buildings get converted to condos for the 20 somethings & others that prefer to live downtown. This would be a few years out.
:
- Developer · Philadelphia, PA · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 902 votes6y
Originally posted by @Alex West:
@Joe P.
So I was thinking of house hacking in Philadelphia, I've been keeping a close eye on the market and there are over 30 new listings a day on MLS sites this month (a slight exaggeration with every day).
What would be your analysis on this movement? Are people just reacting to unemployment & renting //or work from home away from the city?
Everyone waited for the showing restrictions to lift before listing so they didn't have a stale listing since they couldn't actually show the house. Also, people were afraid to have others coming through even once restrictions eased. I think life with the virus is normalizing a bit and people are open to having buyers coming through their occupied house now, so for those two reasons we're seeing a jump in listings. I'd guess the interest rates and time of year also have something to do with people putting their houses on the market, it's a good time to move up. My wife and I are talking about putting our place on the market to move up just because prices are up and interest rates are down, but we'd still stay in the city. I don't think the virus or the protests will scare away too many people from city living. I don't know anyone leaving Philadelphia because of either, although I'm sure there is some small percentage that will.
- Real Estate Agent · Spokane, WA & North Idaho · Member since 2017 · 135 posts · 170 votes6y
Originally posted by @Joseph Gjertsen:
@Phil Wells Great topic and very possible
I do believe a large shift could happen and downtown office sectors being effected the most. I understand that people still want to live downtown and be close to retail, restaurants, & attractions but I also know a lot of people live downtown bc it’s close to their office.
If a company that pays rent on 100,000+ sq ft of office space and just realized they can almost operate at full strength without that office space, why wouldn’t they keep a “headquarters” but make it 10x smaller?
And if you wfh full time, would most prefer a 600 sq ft apartment to live/work in or a home with an office in it and land around it(for the same price or less, +equity)? I know there are negatives to homeownership and not everybody wants the required maintenance that comes along with it.
Maybe office buildings get converted to condos for the 20 somethings & others that prefer to live downtown. This would be a few years out.
:
I think current office space being converted to residential is highly probably. Especially, as you suggested, when companies realize they can save a ton on rents and maintain their productivity by having people work from home. The only thing to consider then is whether people will want to occupy the new residential space when they can live anywhere.
- Real Estate Agent · Spokane, WA & North Idaho · Member since 2017 · 135 posts · 170 votes6y
Originally posted by @Nicholas L.:
@Phil Wells it's an interesting question, thanks for starting this thread. I think the US is big enough, and still growing enough, that some people may leave cities in the wake of covid AND the attractive cities will also continue to grow. There's another thread going on BP about the supposed "exodus" from California, and I think the same principle applies. It's inarguable that California is not growing as fast as it was in the 1990s and early 2000s - and also that more residents are leaving than are moving in - but that's just one measure: domestic migration, not overall growth. So, just as California isn't actually about to start shrinking even as growth crests, so it goes with the trendy cities.
Depends entirely on what an "attractive city" is then. My interest is in the impact on super inflated cities like NYC, San Fransisco, etc. There are plenty of reasonably priced cities with a lot to offer out there like Phoenix where I can imagine growth still occurring post COVID.
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