Investor · Midlothian, VA · Member since 2015 · 305 posts · 199 votes
I have been watching the last 4 months in absolute awe. Unemployment is through the roof, businesses are going bankrupt, most people are staying home not spending money yet the stock market and Real Estate market are doing great. The US government has done a lot to try and curb the effects that Covid has had on the economy but can it last? The housing market in my local market, Richmond, VA, is red hot. Interest rates are super low and the inventory is low so I feel those two factors are carrying the market for now but how long can that last? We have already seen a steep decline in higher end properties across the nation. I fear people are being lured into a false sense of security with the current market conditions and are not preparing themselves for the fall out. Thoughts?
There will be more foreclosures activity but there will still be more demand than supply. Everyone waiting around for another 2009 apocalypse is going to be very disappointed.
@Scott Lennon hi! I don’t think there will be a ‘fall out’ in Richmond. Maybe a decline in sales of higher end homes & air B&B’s. I think there will be more ppl looking for more affordable homes & those that might have bought might be renting. The college rental market might suffer if students don’t return. I think Richmond will continue to grow!
There will be more foreclosures activity but there will still be more demand than supply. Everyone waiting around for another 2009 apocalypse is going to be very disappointed.
Everything is possible. It's almost certain there will be crashes. We simply don't know when.
The real estate market has traditionally gone through up and down cycles every few years. There's no reason to believe that it won't happen again. A correction of 20-50% in real estates value in certain markets can happen without much warning. In fact, New York City is already seeing a correction and probably a bigger fall out in the next 12 months.
I think depends on how things play out with virus. Longer businesses stay at lower capacity the bigger probability of a bigger crash. I think anyone that was in any sort foreclosure trouble before all this will definitely going that route. So definitely there will be uptick in some foreclosure activity. Will be 2008 again, I think not. The difference is this time around we have good loans. Also took much quicker then it did during the last recession. They actually learned from the last go figure. It'll be interesting to see what the printing of money could do to inflation or what other fallout can come from that. We just need to continue to keep a close on things because there is always new big news almost everyday. The fact that rates will be kept low for foreseeable future will help keep us from crashing.
Wouldn't that be nice! Then I could finally get into a REI, example I offered to buy a house for the asking price($679k) I was out bidded within 12 mins($690k) and that offer was out bidded($715K). Man At that rate I won't be able to buy a home for myself hahaha let alone get into REI. Just have to save up more money and bust my butt. "I can't, but how can I".......
Wouldn't that be nice! Then I could finally get into a REI, example I offered to buy a house for the asking price($679k) I was out bidded within 12 mins($690k) and that offer was out bidded($715K). Man At that rate I won't be able to buy a home for myself hahaha let alone get into REI. Just have to save up more money and bust my butt. "I can't, but how can I".......
Why not try another market that isn't insanely expensive? Even if it isn't your primary residence, you are still building equity. Look for a place within driving distance so you can manage it yourself.
I don't think there will be a wave of foreclosure at all. As you may have known, most of the properties that were bought earlier this year or 2019 have gone up in value. We are looking at 5% - 10% appreciation. That is an instant equity gain for homeowners right there. Now, I understand the part that forbearance period is coming to an end; however, if people have equity in their house, they can just simple sell their homes and cash out those equities and don't have to go through the foreclosure process. In my opinion, we will see more inventory toward the end of this year. If buyers are still out there, which I think there will be many more due to low interest rate, the real estate market will continue to survive.
I feel that the real estate market will be tough in a small percentage of the markets that depend on restaurants/tourists as the foundation for the economy. In other markets it will be a small and most likely negligible drop. Will the market be like it was in 2009? Absolutely not! The real estate crash of 2009 was a once in a generation opportunity and won’t be repeated in our life times. Waiting for the next real estate crash to buy real estate is like waiting for the next dot com bust to by internet stocks. Ain’t going to happen!
@David Gonzalez I disagree. I think were likely to see much more inventory coming out when the moratoriums are lifted. There are also many private lenders and there loan servicing companies who are in a tight bind right now. The way I look at it is business' hold 2 books the one for the public eye to see and the real books. Business' don't want you to see the real books until is absolutely necessary. Thats the way it is for a large part of the economy right now. Private lenders don't want there clients to know about the forbearance there dealing with. There going to asking for all that money up front. There not going to add these missed payments to the back end of there loan. Your going to see a large wave of foreclosures and short sales. It may be even bigger than 2008.
Consumer confidence is at an all time low. That is not going to change for a long time even when a vaccine gets approved, Which by the way won't be for a very long time. maybe 7-8 months from now. Kids are not going to school across the US. There are so many things happening at once. Think about this. A historical global epidemic has put the world on hold for months now. Yet the stock market hit an all time high and real estate has gone up 10% and is so hot ATM. Sounds very much like 2006 to me. Everyone wanted in.
I strongly feel like there is going to be a big correction in the next year. I have posted my beliefs and have gotten belittled and laughed out of thread after thread about this, but I'm sticking to my gut on this one. Correction coming be ready. There are multi million dollar ( honest ) hedge fund managers that also agree with me. Start to look up letters written to clients. There warning them to get out of the market. Its not going to end well for those of you who keep up this bullish game. The RE market is going to feel the effects of all this as well.
Wholesalers are dropping like flies in Phoenix, I get sometime three emails on same property from them. The single dwelling house is KING and will be for several months. Everyone wants a nice home and with interest rates, how could anyone go wrong?
Buy a house for $1000 payment or you can pay rent for same house for $2000 . That's the demand!!
Good deals are of the past right now, Have to be creative to find good deals. Or build a good creative deal, such as cottages, single level!!.
I would like to hear what those in the commercial space say. Residential is up in the air but commercial you have a lot of retail and resturaunts that are taking a big hit. Is there going to be an issue with that space and what will it look like across the country. What realistic way is there to repurpose those spaces?
I’m not sure. I have mixed feelings about it. I must admit if you had told me at the end of March we would be here now I would have thought you were wrong. I am surprised by many economic indicators now.
At least with Real Estate it is slow and there are generally signs in advance.
The real estate market has traditionally gone through up and down cycles every few years. There's no
reason to believe that it won't happen again. A correction of 20-50% in real estates value in certain markets can happen without much warning. In fact, New York City is already seeing a correction and probably a bigger fall out in the next 12 months.
Absolutely a great seller's market. It is nationwide as far as I can see. This is sort of the theory a couple of decades ago. Real Estate would always go up. I don’t know if that is necessarily true.