Week of February 2, 2026 in Review

More evidence is piling up that the labor market is cooling, while national home price forecasts are quietly moving higher. Here’s what’s worth paying attention to this week — and why it matters.

Government Shutdown Delays Key Jobs Data

Although the government has reopened, the brief shutdown delayed the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ January Jobs Report. Instead of the original February 6 release, the data is now scheduled for February 11.

Why this matters: That delay means markets — and the Fed — are temporarily flying with incomplete information, putting more weight on private data like ADP and alternative labor trackers.

Private Payroll Growth Disappoints in January

Private-sector hiring slowed again in January, with just 22,000 jobs added, according to ADP — less than half of expectations.

• Small businesses: flat hiring
• Mid-sized firms: +41,000 jobs
• Large employers: –18,000 jobs

Job gains were narrowly concentrated:

• Education & health services: +74,000
• Business & professional services: –57,000

Wage growth still favors job switchers:

• Job switchers: +6.4%
• Job stayers: +4.5%

What’s the bottom line? Hiring momentum remains weak. ADP estimates that only 398,000 jobs were added in all of 2025, compared to 771,000 in 2024 — averaging just ~33,000 jobs per month last year.

And that number may fall further once updated employment census data (QCEW) is released later this year.

Broader Labor Data Confirms the Slowdown

Other indicators are telling the same story:

• Revelio Labs reported 13,300 job losses in January
• Initial jobless claims rose to 231,000 (highest since early December)
• Continuing claims climbed to 1.84 million, remaining elevated
• Job openings fell to 6.54 million, down sharply from 2022’s 12M+ peak

Layoffs are accelerating:

• Challenger reported 108,435 job cuts in January — the highest January since 2009
• Hiring announcements fell to just 5,306, the lowest January reading on record

What’s the bottom line? Fewer openings, rising layoffs, elevated claims, and weak hiring plans all point to a labor market that’s steadily losing momentum — even if layoffs remain uneven across industries.

Housing Market Shows Quiet Strength

While the labor market cools, housing fundamentals are improving.

Cotality’s latest Home Price Insights report shows:

• December prices dipped just 0.2% month-over-month
• Prices are still 0.9% higher year-over-year

More importantly, Cotality now forecasts a 4.5% increase in home values over the next 12 months, up from its prior 4.3% outlook.

What’s the bottom line? Easing mortgage rates and pent-up demand are supporting prices — even as inventory remains limited. For buyers on the sidelines waiting for “the perfect moment,” appreciation risk is quietly growing.

A simple example:

• A $500,000 home appreciating 4% = $20,000 in value in one year

That’s real money — even in a slower economy.

What This Means Right Now

• The labor market is cooling, not collapsing
• The Fed may get more flexibility if this trend continues
• Housing demand is holding up better than headlines suggest
• Waiting carries real opportunity cost for buyers

Strategy matters more than timing headlines.

What to Watch This Week

• January Jobs Report (Wednesday)
• Consumer Price Index (Friday)
• Retail Sales (Tuesday)
• Existing Home Sales + Jobless Claims (Thursday)

Quick Rate Watch

Mortgage bonds are testing short-term support levels. If they hold, there’s room for modest improvement. The 10-year Treasury is hovering near resistance — upcoming jobs and inflation data could set the tone for rates heading into mid-February.

If you want help translating this into a buyer or seller conversation, I’m happy to help.