Investor · Fort Lauderdale, FL · Member since 2013 · 924 posts · 611 votes
I've been beating this drum for a year: the housing market isn't healthy and the data confirms it.
New Cotality research dropped this week. Here's what they found and what it means if you're sitting on the sidelines waiting for the "right time" to invest:
Sellers are cutting prices. After years of sellers calling every shot, the leverage is shifting. Price growth is essentially dead. The market is stalling. 65% of homeowners will face escrow shortages in 2026 due to rising insurance costs and property taxes. FHA delinquencies are climbing sharply. When you're handing out mortgages at 580 FICO with 3.5% down, rising delinquencies aren't a surprise. Large institutional investors, have cut their market share IN HALF. When the big money steps back, pay attention. Despite this, home prices are still 48% above pre-pandemic levels. If nothing else this market is certainly resilient.
The market isn't crashing. It isn't booming. It's STUCK like a fat hand in a skinny cookie jar. If you're sitting on the sidelines waiting for the "right" market, you'll be waiting for a long time. The "right time" MINDSET will keep you standing in the same place for years. The opportunity is in the chaos.
I've been beating this drum for a year: the housing market isn't healthy and the data confirms it.
New Cotality research dropped this week. Here's what they found and what it means if you're sitting on the sidelines waiting for the "right time" to invest:
Sellers are cutting prices. After years of sellers calling every shot, the leverage is shifting. Price growth is essentially dead. The market is stalling. 65% of homeowners will face escrow shortages in 2026 due to rising insurance costs and property taxes. FHA delinquencies are climbing sharply. When you're handing out mortgages at 580 FICO with 3.5% down, rising delinquencies aren't a surprise. Large institutional investors, have cut their market share IN HALF. When the big money steps back, pay attention. Despite this, home prices are still 48% above pre-pandemic levels. If nothing else this market is certainly resilient.
The market isn't crashing. It isn't booming. It's STUCK like a fat hand in a skinny cookie jar. If you're sitting on the sidelines waiting for the "right" market, you'll be waiting for a long time. The "right time" MINDSET will keep you standing in the same place for years. The opportunity is in the chaos.
The “right time” thing can turn into an excuse to sit still forever. I’d rather look for specific owners or pockets of a market that are under pressure than try to call the whole market. The headline numbers matter, but they don’t tell you where the actual opportunity is.
Agreed, Dom. We've all heard the "real estate is local". So, yeah, no one article about the national housing market can cover every zip code and every seller within that zip code. The deals are found digging through the weeds.
It's definitely a weird time. I am noticing A class suburbs to move quickly. Also outskirt towns that are seeing migration from populated areas. Working class suburbs and the urban core is hit or miss.