15yr or 30 yr?? But big delta in interest rates...

15yr or 30 yr?? But big delta in interest rates...

OR · Member since 2017 · 3 posts · 0 votes

Hello.

I've got a primary home 30yr loan at 3.95% of which $253k is left. $1272 PI, plus a 15yr HEL at $57k. $511 PI. Home is worth $420k so plenty of equity to refinance if we choose to.

I have the opportunity for a promo interest rate at 2.99% for 15yr plus with 1% org. fee. Total closing costs including prepaids/etc are heavy at $10+K and when built into the loan, I am given a scenario of $321k at 2.99 with a PI of $2215. I see the large interest savings of paying this loan off in 15yrs as apposed to the remaining interest if my HEL and primary are paid in 15 and 30yrs, respectively. And we often paid an extra $500 for the HEL so in effect we are doing the same thing of paying roughly $2300 a month but chipping away a lot less.

This primary home could be kept as a rental, should we move into a larger home for our increasing family. Maybe that happens in 2-5yrs. Or we sell. I know it pays to stay with 30yrs re/rental strategies and leverage...etc. However in Oregon we are federally capped on interest rate deductions along with state and local taxes so it's mostly a standard deduction for us, hence the higher interest 30yr doesn't help compared to 15yr from a fed tax standpoint.  Our debt to income ratio is low with about $3400 in mortgages (above plus a duplex 30yr at $1175 PI and a Car loan at $400) where gross monthly W2 income is $1550-1950 (depends on Profit sharing as part of my total compensation). Even adding other minor monthly 'debt' like cell phone bill, utilities, etc, it doesn't move the needle much.

Most scenarios that tout 30yr over 15yr use a very similar interest rate in comparison, however we're talking almost a complete point difference.  And those that talk about putting the extra $$ from a lower 30yr mortgage into the stock market for 'great gains', makes we wonder as we are likely going to hit a period (short? long?) of volatile and mediocre stock returns -yes speculation....

Finally I doubt we will go past a max of 2 USA rental properties and one primary home. 


Anyone have some advice? Can crunch some numbers on real savings differences/opportunity cost loss?

Thanks!

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  • Rental Property Investor · Batavia, IL · Member since 2018 · 452 posts · 672 votes
    7y

    @Alexander Cabrera Personally, I would strongly hesitate to move from a 30 yr to a 15 yr fixed because you would be significantly increasing the mandatory monthly payment obligation.  Even with the decreased interest rate, you are locking yourself into a higher monthly payment when you could stay with the 30 yr and overpay as much as you want to have it paid off in 15 years as well.  At least with the 30 yr, you give yourself flexibility and increased margins in case anything goes sideways in the future (loss of job, injury resulting in being out of work, major unplanned expenses with rental homes, medical bills etc).  Even though on paper it might work out to slightly better numbers to move to a lower interest rate, you give yourself a lot more exposure to risk for the unplanned things in life. Just my thoughts.  Obviously many things to consider, but don't overlook the difference between being obligated to pay ~$1800 and choosing to pay an additional $500 vs. being obligated to pay $2300 monthly.  

  • OR · Member since 2017 · 3 posts · 0 votes
    7y

    I forgot to add another 0 at the end of our month gross earnings: $15500-$19500.

    And because this is a cashout, the lowest 30 yr rate I can actually get is 4.25% with a loan amount of about $317k, thus $1560. If I were to have the flexibility pay off this loan to a 15 yr scenario, it would cost about $175 per month more in PI. How to measure the pro/con of a guaranteed annual return of 4.25% (because interest is not deductible more like 4.25/(1-.33) = 6.34% return, as well as having  $2100 to invest -as opposed to having $6660 per year to either invest -or to pay off the 30yr ( 18yr pay off at $555 additional). I question getting 6-7% after tax returns in the stock market right now.

    The only problem I see with this, is I can't say for certain we'll stay in the home for 15 yrs. Maybe 3? Maybe 15!

  • Investor · San Diego, CA · Member since 2016 · 265 posts · 305 votes
    7y
    Alexander Cabrera If you are trying to create a lifestyle in which your passive income covers your expenses on a monthly basis, I would stick with the 30-year fixed. Equity buried in a property has zero return.
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