Market trends: May was red, June feels better

Marcus Auerbach · 2025-06-04T05:54:48-07:00

Milwaukee has been one of the hottest markets in the US in 2025 - until May. I am just going over the numbers for my June Update and we have probably seen the biggest single months shift in a decade. All major KPI's went red: - home price increase went for 11% to 0.3%- inventory exploded up 53%- home sales are down by over 40%- list prices are down, but sold-to-list ratio is still at 103.2%: that is a total conundrum!! We rarely ever see a double-digit % change in a single month, let alone this scale! And from all months this is happening not in November, but in May - the #1 spring market month. The interesting thing is that June feels already much better, actually the last 2 weeks. All our agents reported the same thing at the team meeting on Monday - they went from very low activity to hair-on-fire-busy. What is happening?

Charles ClarkBusiness Member

Real Estate Broker · Milwaukee, WI · Member since 2020 · 306 posts · 209 votes

1y

@Marcus Auerbach
Sounds like buyers hit pause in May—likely due to rate spikes or market uncertainty—causing a sharp dip. But the sudden June rebound suggests it was a temporary shock, not a trend. Market's correcting fast!

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Marcus Auerbach
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Investor · Milwaukee - Mequon, WI · Member since 2010 · 5k+ posts · 7k+ votes
1y
Quote from @Charles Clark:

@Marcus Auerbach
Sounds like buyers hit pause in May—likely due to rate spikes or market uncertainty—causing a sharp dip. But the sudden June rebound suggests it was a temporary shock, not a trend. Market's correcting fast!

I am a data person and my wife is the opposite of me (she is all empathy and intuition) asked me a few weeks ago why I acted surprised. It was totally obvious to her that the political uncertainty surrounding tariffs and a potential recession would impact the real estate markets. That fact that list prices came down more than sold prices tells me that agents got more nervous than buyers! Huh!!
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Jay HinrichsBusiness Member

Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes

1y

we are seeing that in our sub market in PDX title company puts out market data each week and there is a speedometer type presentation showing seller market to buyer market and for the first time since the crash we see the market has slipped below the line that de-marks seller market and buyer market.. still says slightly seller advantage and I think the only reason is there is still very little inventory.

For me it seems like when interest rates were falling things were picking up but now rates are or have been rising and I think folks are sitting tight again waiting for drop of rates that everyone has been thinking would happen by now..

some of my clients though in the mid west are selling their flips within 5 to 7 days of going on market.. My Oregon product is 700 to 900k my mid west clients are selling rehabbed and ready to go homes for 175 to 275k each.. I had one come in this week with an overbid of 17k it was listed at 260k and bid up to 277k.. So best house for the buck still moving.. Investors are still doing brrr with me.. although some lenders in some markets are tightening up on the DSCR loans so have to be careful there that we dont over load our guys/gals that we fund doing bRRR

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Marcus Auerbach
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Investor · Milwaukee - Mequon, WI · Member since 2010 · 5k+ posts · 7k+ votes
1y
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

we are seeing that in our sub market in PDX title company puts out market data each week and there is a speedometer type presentation showing seller market to buyer market and for the first time since the crash we see the market has slipped below the line that de-marks seller market and buyer market.. still says slightly seller advantage and I think the only reason is there is still very little inventory.
For me it seems like when interest rates were falling things were picking up but now rates are or have been rising and I think folks are sitting tight again waiting for drop of rates that everyone has been thinking would happen by now..
some of my clients though in the mid west are selling their flips within 5 to 7 days of going on market.. My Oregon product is 700 to 900k my mid west clients are selling rehabbed and ready to go homes for 175 to 275k each.. I had one come in this week with an overbid of 17k it was listed at 260k and bid up to 277k.. So best house for the buck still moving.. Investors are still doing brrr with me.. although some lenders in some markets are tightening up on the DSCR loans so have to be careful there that we dont over load our guys/gals that we fund doing bRRR

I have a client from Phonix, selling his 1.2m home and buying a bigger one here - Phoenix is dead, he said. 2 showings in a the first week. If I don't get 20 showings here on an average priced home the first weekend, I know we are not positioned right.
Inventory is the difference. They have a lot more listings than buyers in Phoenix. Homes are still selling, but you have to be priced ahead of the market, not behind it. If 20% of all listings sell every month, you just have to be in the top 20% of cost/value.
Same is true for flippers and BRRRR, you have to adjust your ARV accordingly to where the market will be in 6 months. Good news is that this type of environment also provides a lot more buying opportunities!
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Charles ClarkBusiness Member

Real Estate Broker · Milwaukee, WI · Member since 2020 · 306 posts · 209 votes

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@Marcus Auerbach
That’s a great observation—and your wife’s intuition nailed it! 📉 It’s wild how sentiment shifts faster with sellers and agents than buyers sometimes. Markets really do react to both dataand emotion!

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Caleb Brown

Real Estate Agent · Kansas City · Member since 2018 · 4k+ posts · 3k+ votes

1y

That's crazy, maybe school getting out in May made people pause and wait. I would say May was a little slower then April here in Kansas City but this month has started off strong so far. Fun time to be in Real Estate :)

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Grant Tyler Short

Scottsdale, AZ · Member since 2017 · 21 posts · 18 votes

1y

The number of underwater properties (purchased within the past 4 years) in PHX is astonishing. Browsing through listings, it's like shooting fish in a barrel finding them, especially in the condo/townhome market with agents rumbling about increased HOA fees in some complexes due to concerns about reserves for cap X

Cromford market index showing 9% higher supply compared to historical norms. Buyer demand is down 27% compared to normal and falling daily. Some of my non RE friends who are looking to purchase continue to be shown homes by agents claiming "the market is still hot." What horrible fiduciaries. They don't even know their own data in their own industry. Or...they do and are lying to get a commission check.

Curious how 3 year and 5 year ARM loans taken Q3/Q4 2022 and onward will impact continued supply additions to the market. List prices have fallen significantly. Sales prices are starting to follow. That whole "date the rate" narrative is actively being challenged.

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Market trends: May was red, June feels better

Market trends: May was red, June feels better

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