Real Estate Broker · Austin, TX · Member since 2012 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
Austin keeps growing. The stats show that the civilian labor force is now 1,568,800 according to BLS. And the unemployment is 4%. There is a little bit of a shift going on though within the industries and its important to be mindful of it. Information (tech) employment growth is declining and I am assuming that is related to AI. But the construction industry is still going strong and so is Professional Services. Nevertheless, Austin metro is a continuous growth machine and has been forever. As a bud and I sometimes say, if you want a job then go get it.
Growth equals more demand for everything real estate.
Englewood, NJ · Member since 2018 · 464 posts · 89 votes
1w
Aaron, the industry mix shift you're pointing out is the part I think most people are overlooking. Everyone sees the tech headlines and assumes Austin is in trouble, but construction and professional services absorbing that labor is actually a healthier foundation for real estate demand than a bunch of software engineers bidding up homes.
I'm not in Austin - I buy at tax deed auctions in Broward County, South Florida, and operate out of North Jersey. But the growth-vs-demand thesis you're laying out plays out the same way down here. Population growth drives housing demand regardless of which industry is writing the paychecks. The question is always whether new construction can keep up, and in Austin's case it seems like the answer is yes, which is what separates it from a lot of Sun Belt markets that are all talk.
The 4% unemployment is interesting too. That's slightly elevated but in the context of a market that's actively transitioning industries, it's actually a sign of reallocation rather than weakness. People are finding work, just in different sectors. That's way better than a market where unemployment is low but it's all propped up by one industry that's starting to crack.
Curious - at 6 doors, are you mostly looking at small multifamily in Austin proper or are you expanding into the suburbs where the growth is actually showing up? The outer rings seem to be where the construction activity is concentrated.
Real Estate Broker · Austin, TX · Member since 2012 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
1w
@Igor Ganapolsky The growth is everywhere. We are developing land in south side but we are also in San Antonio, the Hill Country, Austin metro and even in Tyler doing deals.
Englewood, NJ · Member since 2018 · 464 posts · 89 votes
1d
@Aaron Gordy That's a different discipline than what I do. I work one county and one auction calendar in Broward, same parcels, same clerk, over and over.
Honest tradeoff: you're never hostage to one market's cycle. I know my county cold but have nowhere to go when Broward is thin.
Question for you, do you underwrite San Antonio, the Hill Country, Austin metro and Tyler differently, or run one standard across all of them?