A price cut on a cheap house is a verdict, not a discount

A price cut on a cheap house is a verdict, not a discount

James JonesPro Member
Investor · Collierville, TN 38017 · Member since 2017 · 597 posts · 448 votes

Memphis operator since 2003, few hundred doors, majority Section 8, own crews and own management. Somebody sent me a listing this week and asked whether it was worth chasing. Walking through how I actually read it turned out to be more useful than the answer, so here is the method rather than the verdict.

THE SETUP. Vacant single family, three bedroom, roughly eleven hundred feet, built 1960. Listed at forty-two thousand, reduced several times, now asking twenty-nine. As-is, cash only, proof of funds, no contingencies. Utilities currently off. From a thousand miles away that reads as a bargain. It is not, yet. It is a question.

READ THE PRICE HISTORY, NOT THE PRICE. This is the part almost everybody skips. A thirty percent reduction over an extended marketing period in a market with a deep cash buyer pool means the entire local buyer pool has already looked at this house and passed. Every one of them. So the first question is not whether twenty-nine is cheap. It is what all of those people saw that is not in the photographs. Sometimes the honest answer is nothing - an out of state seller badly advised, an agent who does not work this product. More often there is a reason, and it is your job to find it before you own it rather than after.

UTILITIES CURRENTLY OFF IS THE MOST EXPENSIVE PHRASE IN ANY LISTING. It gets skimmed because it sounds administrative. It is not. With utilities off, nobody has pressure tested the supply lines and nobody has run water down the drains. On a house of this age in this price band that leaves three live unknowns: cast iron drain lines that may have bellied or cracked, galvanized supply that may be closed up with scale, and the one that actually hurts - a vacant, utilities-off, heavily reduced house has a real chance of having been stripped for copper. That last one alone is five figures and it does not photograph.

NO CONTINGENCIES MEANS NO INSPECTION PERIOD. Which means every one of those unknowns has to be answered before you make an offer, not after you are under contract. That is the actual structural problem with this deal and it has nothing to do with the price. People read cash, as-is, no contingencies as a signal the seller is motivated. It is also a signal that the seller has moved the risk onto you and priced accordingly.

THE ONE PHONE CALL THAT IS WORTH MORE THAN THE INSPECTION. Ask the listing agent whether the seller will turn the water on for one hour for a plumber's scope, at your cost, before any offer. The ANSWER is the information, regardless of what the scope finds. A seller with nothing to hide says yes, because it moves a stalled listing and costs them nothing. A seller who refuses, on a house that has been reduced thirty percent and sat, has just told you what is under the slab. Either way you learn something and it costs you a phone call.

AND THE THING THAT ACTUALLY DECIDES IT IS NOT ON ANY LISTING SITE. Stand on the street. Photograph the block face in both directions from in front of the house. Count how many houses on that block are occupied, how many are boarded, how many have cars in the driveway on a weekday afternoon. Then look hard at the two houses immediately either side, because those two are your comparables whether you like it or not, and they are also your tenant's neighbors. If that block face is majority boarded, the price is irrelevant and the answer is no regardless of what the house itself is. I have never once regretted walking away on the block. I have regretted the opposite.

WHAT I WOULD NOT DO, which is where most of the damage happens. I would not buy it on the strength of the price per foot. Cheap per foot in a cheap market is not information, it is the baseline. I would not treat the listing photos as evidence of anything - the deals I walk away from are almost always the ones where somebody photographed four rooms out of seven. And I would not assume that because I can fix it, I should. Being able to absorb a problem is not the same as being paid to absorb it.

THE HONEST CAVEAT. I own my crews and my own management, so my tolerance for condition is higher than most people's and my cost to fix is lower. If you are buying remote and hiring both out, everything above still applies but your kill criteria should be tighter than mine, not looser. The same house is a different deal depending on who owns the labor, and that is the variable people copy from operators without noticing they did not copy the crew.

Two questions for the room, because I would rather learn than lecture. What is the reduction pattern that makes you walk versus lean in - is it the size of the cut, the number of cuts, or the time between them? And has anyone actually gotten a seller to turn utilities on before an offer on a no-contingency listing, or is that a thing that works in my market and nowhere else?

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  • Diana KhanPro Member
    Attorney · 10451 Mill Run Cir #755 Owings Mills, MD 21117 · Member since 2024 · 375 posts · 144 votes
    2d
    Quote from @James Jones:

    Memphis operator since 2003, few hundred doors, majority Section 8, own crews and own management. Somebody sent me a listing this week and asked whether it was worth chasing. Walking through how I actually read it turned out to be more useful than the answer, so here is the method rather than the verdict.

    THE SETUP. Vacant single family, three bedroom, roughly eleven hundred feet, built 1960. Listed at forty-two thousand, reduced several times, now asking twenty-nine. As-is, cash only, proof of funds, no contingencies. Utilities currently off. From a thousand miles away that reads as a bargain. It is not, yet. It is a question.

    READ THE PRICE HISTORY, NOT THE PRICE. This is the part almost everybody skips. A thirty percent reduction over an extended marketing period in a market with a deep cash buyer pool means the entire local buyer pool has already looked at this house and passed. Every one of them. So the first question is not whether twenty-nine is cheap. It is what all of those people saw that is not in the photographs. Sometimes the honest answer is nothing - an out of state seller badly advised, an agent who does not work this product. More often there is a reason, and it is your job to find it before you own it rather than after.

    UTILITIES CURRENTLY OFF IS THE MOST EXPENSIVE PHRASE IN ANY LISTING. It gets skimmed because it sounds administrative. It is not. With utilities off, nobody has pressure tested the supply lines and nobody has run water down the drains. On a house of this age in this price band that leaves three live unknowns: cast iron drain lines that may have bellied or cracked, galvanized supply that may be closed up with scale, and the one that actually hurts - a vacant, utilities-off, heavily reduced house has a real chance of having been stripped for copper. That last one alone is five figures and it does not photograph.

    NO CONTINGENCIES MEANS NO INSPECTION PERIOD. Which means every one of those unknowns has to be answered before you make an offer, not after you are under contract. That is the actual structural problem with this deal and it has nothing to do with the price. People read cash, as-is, no contingencies as a signal the seller is motivated. It is also a signal that the seller has moved the risk onto you and priced accordingly.

    THE ONE PHONE CALL THAT IS WORTH MORE THAN THE INSPECTION. Ask the listing agent whether the seller will turn the water on for one hour for a plumber's scope, at your cost, before any offer. The ANSWER is the information, regardless of what the scope finds. A seller with nothing to hide says yes, because it moves a stalled listing and costs them nothing. A seller who refuses, on a house that has been reduced thirty percent and sat, has just told you what is under the slab. Either way you learn something and it costs you a phone call.

    AND THE THING THAT ACTUALLY DECIDES IT IS NOT ON ANY LISTING SITE. Stand on the street. Photograph the block face in both directions from in front of the house. Count how many houses on that block are occupied, how many are boarded, how many have cars in the driveway on a weekday afternoon. Then look hard at the two houses immediately either side, because those two are your comparables whether you like it or not, and they are also your tenant's neighbors. If that block face is majority boarded, the price is irrelevant and the answer is no regardless of what the house itself is. I have never once regretted walking away on the block. I have regretted the opposite.

    WHAT I WOULD NOT DO, which is where most of the damage happens. I would not buy it on the strength of the price per foot. Cheap per foot in a cheap market is not information, it is the baseline. I would not treat the listing photos as evidence of anything - the deals I walk away from are almost always the ones where somebody photographed four rooms out of seven. And I would not assume that because I can fix it, I should. Being able to absorb a problem is not the same as being paid to absorb it.

    THE HONEST CAVEAT. I own my crews and my own management, so my tolerance for condition is higher than most people's and my cost to fix is lower. If you are buying remote and hiring both out, everything above still applies but your kill criteria should be tighter than mine, not looser. The same house is a different deal depending on who owns the labor, and that is the variable people copy from operators without noticing they did not copy the crew.

    Two questions for the room, because I would rather learn than lecture. What is the reduction pattern that makes you walk versus lean in - is it the size of the cut, the number of cuts, or the time between them? And has anyone actually gotten a seller to turn utilities on before an offer on a no-contingency listing, or is that a thing that works in my market and nowhere else?

    @James Jones the “no contingencies” part is what would get my attention first too. I’ve worked with buyers where a low price made the deal feel worth the risk, but once the contract takes away the normal exit points, you really need to know what you are accepting before you sign.

    If the seller will not allow utilities to be turned on, I would treat that as useful information, but I would also look at everything I can verify without the seller’s cooperation. Title, liens, open permits or code issues, prior use, and anything in the public record can sometimes explain why a property has been sitting before you ever get inside. I’ve seen the paperwork tell a very different story from the listing photos. I like the way you framed this because sometimes the best due diligence is figuring out why everyone else already walked away.

  • James JonesPro Member
    OP
    Investor · Collierville, TN 38017 · Member since 2017 · 597 posts · 448 votes
    1d

    Diana - you added the thing I under-weighted, and coming from an attorney it lands harder than it would from me. I wrote a post about physical diligence and barely mentioned the paper, and the paper is both cheaper and available to you before anybody has to cooperate with you.

    So let me be specific about what I would pull on this particular kind of house, because each record answers a different question.

    Permit history, and specifically OPEN or expired permits. On a vacant house that has been sitting, an open permit usually means somebody started a rehab and stopped. Why they stopped is the entire story of the property, and you are about to inherit both the unfinished work and the inspection that goes with it. A closed permit history that shows a roof or a service panel in the last ten years is the opposite - that is free good news nobody else on the listing bothered to look up.

    Code enforcement, and in my market that means checking whether there is an active environmental court matter. Those travel with the property, they come with deadlines, and the fines accrue. A demolition order is the one that simply ends the conversation, and people do buy houses with them.

    Municipal liens, which is the one I would push hardest on for your average reader because it is so underused. Grass cutting and board-up liens are small individually and they stack. More usefully, they are dated. A vacant house with three years of cut-and-board entries has just handed you a free, precise vacancy timeline and told you that the city, not the owner, has been maintaining it. That tells you more about condition than any listing photo.

    And tax status plus any tax sale history, because a redemption period or a clouded chain is a title problem rather than a house problem, and title problems do not care how good your rehab is.

    There is a point buried in what you wrote that I want to make explicit, because it inverts the usual advice to out-of-state buyers. The public record is the one piece of diligence a remote buyer can do at exactly the same quality as a local one. I cannot judge a roof from Maryland and neither can you - but you can pull a permit history, a lien search and a chain of title from Maryland as well as anybody standing on the street in Memphis can. So the remote buyer should be doing MORE of that work than the local buyer, not less, because it is the part where the distance costs them nothing. Most people do the opposite: they skip the paper because it is boring and then fly in to look at a kitchen.

    And your last line is better than anything in my original post, so I will just repeat it: sometimes the best due diligence is figuring out why everyone else already walked away.

  • Michael K GallagherBusiness Member
    Real Estate Agent · Columbus OH · Member since 2018 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    1d

    just because a listing asks for no contingencies does not mean that's what they will get. Additionally like your note about getting the water turned on to scope at your cost, while you are doing that to see what the seller says, that also shows you are serious as a buyer and brings validity to your offer if you end up making it.

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