A price cut on a cheap house is a verdict, not a discount
Memphis operator since 2003, few hundred doors, majority Section 8, own crews and own management. Somebody sent me a listing this week and asked whether it was worth chasing. Walking through how I actually read it turned out to be more useful than the answer, so here is the method rather than the verdict.
THE SETUP. Vacant single family, three bedroom, roughly eleven hundred feet, built 1960. Listed at forty-two thousand, reduced several times, now asking twenty-nine. As-is, cash only, proof of funds, no contingencies. Utilities currently off. From a thousand miles away that reads as a bargain. It is not, yet. It is a question.
READ THE PRICE HISTORY, NOT THE PRICE. This is the part almost everybody skips. A thirty percent reduction over an extended marketing period in a market with a deep cash buyer pool means the entire local buyer pool has already looked at this house and passed. Every one of them. So the first question is not whether twenty-nine is cheap. It is what all of those people saw that is not in the photographs. Sometimes the honest answer is nothing - an out of state seller badly advised, an agent who does not work this product. More often there is a reason, and it is your job to find it before you own it rather than after.
UTILITIES CURRENTLY OFF IS THE MOST EXPENSIVE PHRASE IN ANY LISTING. It gets skimmed because it sounds administrative. It is not. With utilities off, nobody has pressure tested the supply lines and nobody has run water down the drains. On a house of this age in this price band that leaves three live unknowns: cast iron drain lines that may have bellied or cracked, galvanized supply that may be closed up with scale, and the one that actually hurts - a vacant, utilities-off, heavily reduced house has a real chance of having been stripped for copper. That last one alone is five figures and it does not photograph.
NO CONTINGENCIES MEANS NO INSPECTION PERIOD. Which means every one of those unknowns has to be answered before you make an offer, not after you are under contract. That is the actual structural problem with this deal and it has nothing to do with the price. People read cash, as-is, no contingencies as a signal the seller is motivated. It is also a signal that the seller has moved the risk onto you and priced accordingly.
THE ONE PHONE CALL THAT IS WORTH MORE THAN THE INSPECTION. Ask the listing agent whether the seller will turn the water on for one hour for a plumber's scope, at your cost, before any offer. The ANSWER is the information, regardless of what the scope finds. A seller with nothing to hide says yes, because it moves a stalled listing and costs them nothing. A seller who refuses, on a house that has been reduced thirty percent and sat, has just told you what is under the slab. Either way you learn something and it costs you a phone call.
AND THE THING THAT ACTUALLY DECIDES IT IS NOT ON ANY LISTING SITE. Stand on the street. Photograph the block face in both directions from in front of the house. Count how many houses on that block are occupied, how many are boarded, how many have cars in the driveway on a weekday afternoon. Then look hard at the two houses immediately either side, because those two are your comparables whether you like it or not, and they are also your tenant's neighbors. If that block face is majority boarded, the price is irrelevant and the answer is no regardless of what the house itself is. I have never once regretted walking away on the block. I have regretted the opposite.
WHAT I WOULD NOT DO, which is where most of the damage happens. I would not buy it on the strength of the price per foot. Cheap per foot in a cheap market is not information, it is the baseline. I would not treat the listing photos as evidence of anything - the deals I walk away from are almost always the ones where somebody photographed four rooms out of seven. And I would not assume that because I can fix it, I should. Being able to absorb a problem is not the same as being paid to absorb it.
THE HONEST CAVEAT. I own my crews and my own management, so my tolerance for condition is higher than most people's and my cost to fix is lower. If you are buying remote and hiring both out, everything above still applies but your kill criteria should be tighter than mine, not looser. The same house is a different deal depending on who owns the labor, and that is the variable people copy from operators without noticing they did not copy the crew.
Two questions for the room, because I would rather learn than lecture. What is the reduction pattern that makes you walk versus lean in - is it the size of the cut, the number of cuts, or the time between them? And has anyone actually gotten a seller to turn utilities on before an offer on a no-contingency listing, or is that a thing that works in my market and nowhere else?