How Rich Do You Have to Be Before a Bad Deal Becomes a Good Deal?
A borrower comes in with money. Good liquidity. Good credit. Experience. Plenty of skin in the game. Everybody relaxes a little. The lender feels better. The borrower feels better. Now we're discussing LTV, rate, points, reserves, term.
And somewhere in all that financial sophistication, there's an embarrassingly simple question nobody wants to ask: "Does the damn property make sense?"
I sometimes think about wealthy art collectors. If you've already got three Rembrandts hanging around the house, you can afford to make some pretty strange decisions with the fourth painting. You can buy something because you like it. You can overpay. You can buy an obscure artist nobody else understands. Hell, you can discover five years later that your masterpiece is a forgery. You'll be angry. You'll call the lawyers. You'll have an excellent story for dinner. But you'll probably still eat dinner.
That's very different from somebody building his first serious collection. If that's me, I'm probably better off starting with one strong piece. Something I understand. Something with provenance. Something with an established market. Something that has a reasonable chance of appreciating rather than requiring me to convince the next buyer that I've discovered the next Rembrandt.
Hey, do you remember that story? An actual Vermeer and two major Rembrandt paintings disappeared from Boston's Isabella Stewart Gardner Museum in 1990 and still haven't been recovered. If you're rich enough, maybe you can even joke that one of them is hanging in the guest bathroom.
Real estate isn't that different. A wealthy investor can survive things that would destroy somebody starting out. A $50,000 cost overrun might bankrupt one investor and merely piss off another. Six months without income might create a crisis for me and barely register on somebody else's balance sheet. A wealthy borrower can survive vacancies, delays, repairs, bad timing and a lousy exit. So yes: the financial strength of the buyer absolutely changes the risk of the deal.
But here's where I think we get into trouble. Surviving a bad investment doesn't turn it into a good investment. Having another $500,000 available to feed a property doesn't improve the property's economics. Excellent credit doesn't fix a ridiculous purchase price. Liquidity doesn't repair a bad exit. Experience doesn't make an impossible ARV possible. Sometimes money isn't solving the problem. It's just allowing the problem to live longer.
That's why I think the question changes depending on where you are in the game. A billionaire buying his twentieth property can afford an eccentricity. Somebody buying his first or second serious investment probably needs something closer to that first serious piece of art: a strong piece. Not necessarily spectacular. Not something that requires genius to recognize. Not something where six unusual things have to happen before anybody else understands why you bought it. A solid asset, bought on defensible numbers, with an understandable market and a reasonable path to making money.
There's an argument against this, of course. Fortunes aren't usually built by buying only the safest, most obvious thing in the room. Experienced investors sometimes see value precisely where everybody else sees junk. Fair enough. But there's a difference between having the knowledge and capital to take an unusual risk and using your wealth to excuse bad economics.
So when a borrower has plenty of money, maybe the question shouldn't be: "Can he afford this deal?" It should be: "If he had less money, would we still be calling it a good deal?" Because being wealthy can make a bad deal survivable. It can't make the bad deal good.