How Rich Do You Have to Be Before a Bad Deal Becomes a Good Deal?

How Rich Do You Have to Be Before a Bad Deal Becomes a Good Deal?

New to Real Estate · Miami, FL · Member since 2024 · 1k+ posts · 453 votes

A borrower comes in with money. Good liquidity. Good credit. Experience. Plenty of skin in the game. Everybody relaxes a little. The lender feels better. The borrower feels better. Now we're discussing LTV, rate, points, reserves, term.

And somewhere in all that financial sophistication, there's an embarrassingly simple question nobody wants to ask: "Does the damn property make sense?"

I sometimes think about wealthy art collectors. If you've already got three Rembrandts hanging around the house, you can afford to make some pretty strange decisions with the fourth painting. You can buy something because you like it. You can overpay. You can buy an obscure artist nobody else understands. Hell, you can discover five years later that your masterpiece is a forgery. You'll be angry. You'll call the lawyers. You'll have an excellent story for dinner. But you'll probably still eat dinner.

That's very different from somebody building his first serious collection. If that's me, I'm probably better off starting with one strong piece. Something I understand. Something with provenance. Something with an established market. Something that has a reasonable chance of appreciating rather than requiring me to convince the next buyer that I've discovered the next Rembrandt.

Hey, do you remember that story? An actual Vermeer and two major Rembrandt paintings disappeared from Boston's Isabella Stewart Gardner Museum in 1990 and still haven't been recovered. If you're rich enough, maybe you can even joke that one of them is hanging in the guest bathroom.

Real estate isn't that different. A wealthy investor can survive things that would destroy somebody starting out. A $50,000 cost overrun might bankrupt one investor and merely piss off another. Six months without income might create a crisis for me and barely register on somebody else's balance sheet. A wealthy borrower can survive vacancies, delays, repairs, bad timing and a lousy exit. So yes: the financial strength of the buyer absolutely changes the risk of the deal.

But here's where I think we get into trouble. Surviving a bad investment doesn't turn it into a good investment. Having another $500,000 available to feed a property doesn't improve the property's economics. Excellent credit doesn't fix a ridiculous purchase price. Liquidity doesn't repair a bad exit. Experience doesn't make an impossible ARV possible. Sometimes money isn't solving the problem. It's just allowing the problem to live longer.

That's why I think the question changes depending on where you are in the game. A billionaire buying his twentieth property can afford an eccentricity. Somebody buying his first or second serious investment probably needs something closer to that first serious piece of art: a strong piece. Not necessarily spectacular. Not something that requires genius to recognize. Not something where six unusual things have to happen before anybody else understands why you bought it. A solid asset, bought on defensible numbers, with an understandable market and a reasonable path to making money.

There's an argument against this, of course. Fortunes aren't usually built by buying only the safest, most obvious thing in the room. Experienced investors sometimes see value precisely where everybody else sees junk. Fair enough. But there's a difference between having the knowledge and capital to take an unusual risk and using your wealth to excuse bad economics.

So when a borrower has plenty of money, maybe the question shouldn't be: "Can he afford this deal?" It should be: "If he had less money, would we still be calling it a good deal?" Because being wealthy can make a bad deal survivable. It can't make the bad deal good.

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  • Investor · Baltimore, MD · Member since 2019 · 164 posts · 46 votes
    13h

    good insights and well expressed! The masters make sure each deal makes sense --- or they don't do it. The lender is ideally a facilitator not a person who seeks out great deals.

  • Shiloh LundahlPro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Gilbert, AZ · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    12h

    To keep it simple, I would say that there are 3 parts to a deal. 1) the operator - how good is the operator? What is his or her experience level? Is the operator experienced in the specific type of deal that the operator is trying to get funded?  Does the operator have enough in reserves to manage the project if everything goes right and if everything goes wrong? 2) the deal - is it a good deal? Does it appear that it will likely make money? Is it complicated? If the operator is not able to perform as indicated, can someone else take the project to the finish line? 3) the market - is now a good time in the market for the project? Is there demand in the market for the product? Is the demand strengthening or softening? 

    You can have a good operator with good cash reserves who is well funded and you can even have a good deal with strug fundamentals and you can still look a ton of money because the market makes a sudden shift. I think we are seeing this a lot right now especially in multifamily real Estate deals purchased between 2020 and 2022. The deals were underwritten with the expectations of lower interest rates but when the rates shot up in June of 2022 and have never returned to where they were pre June of 2022, many multifamily investors have lost deals because of difficulties refinancing and the cap rates didn't not move in their favor and they lost investor's money. 

    So it isn't just the operator and the deal that need to be vetted, but it is also the market that needs to be considered.  

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