Housing Supply vs Job Growth

Housing Supply vs Job Growth

Investor · Fort Lauderdale, FL · Member since 2013 · 921 posts · 607 votes

The U.S. housing shortage may be turning into a housing glut.

For years, we've been told America simply isn't building enough homes. That may have been true. It isn't looking that way anymore.

Over the past 12 months:

1.35 million homes have been completed while only 500,000 jobs have been added.

That's 2.7 homes completed for every new job created. Look at the historical relationship.

Before COVID, job growth consistently outpaced new housing supply. Today, the relationship has completely flipped.

And we're seeing the consequences in many Sun Belt markets:

Florida. . .Texas.. . .Tennessee. . .Georgia. . . Arizona.

Home prices are falling

Rents are falling

Inventory is piling up

Builders are offering Amazon-like Prime Day Sales

This doesn't mean every market has too many homes.

It means the idea of a nationwide housing shortage is becoming increasingly difficult to defend.

But all this "bad news" is good news, creating buying and investing opportunities we haven't seen in years.

If you're waiting for the "right time" to start investing, here's the problem:

You'll never know it's the right time until you look back and see that it was.

Investors who do well in changing markets aren't the ones who predict the bottom.

They're the ones who know how to recognize an opportunity when they see one, and act on it.

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Divin KanyamaBusiness Member
Accountant · Seattle, WA · Member since 2025 · 433 posts · 173 votes
1w

@Michael Carbonare There is definitely an oversupply story in parts of the Sun Belt, especially where builders delivered a lot of inventory just as rates reduced affordability and migration slowed. That can pressure prices, rents, and concessions locally.

I would hesitate to call it a national housing glut based only on homes completed per new job, though. Housing demand also depends on household formation, population growth, existing inventory, affordability, and where the homes and jobs are located. A new unit in Austin does not solve a shortage in New York or Seattle.

My takeaway is that the market is becoming more regional, not that the national shortage has disappeared. Investors should watch local permits, inventory, concessions, job and population trends, and insurance costs rather than rely on one national ratio. Some markets may be overbuilt while others remain severely undersupplied.

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  • Divin KanyamaBusiness Member
    Accountant · Seattle, WA · Member since 2025 · 433 posts · 173 votes
    1w

    @Michael Carbonare There is definitely an oversupply story in parts of the Sun Belt, especially where builders delivered a lot of inventory just as rates reduced affordability and migration slowed. That can pressure prices, rents, and concessions locally.

    I would hesitate to call it a national housing glut based only on homes completed per new job, though. Housing demand also depends on household formation, population growth, existing inventory, affordability, and where the homes and jobs are located. A new unit in Austin does not solve a shortage in New York or Seattle.

    My takeaway is that the market is becoming more regional, not that the national shortage has disappeared. Investors should watch local permits, inventory, concessions, job and population trends, and insurance costs rather than rely on one national ratio. Some markets may be overbuilt while others remain severely undersupplied.

  • Real Estate Consultant · Member since 2026 · 5 posts · 0 votes
    2d

    the ratio is eye catching but jobs aren’t really the demand number. households form from population growth, adult kids moving out, people splitting up, not just new payrolls. and completions aren’t net supply either, a couple hundred thousand homes a year get torn down or lost. the part i’d watch more is where the supply landed. most of it was sun belt and a lot of it apartments, which is why rents are soft in austin and phoenix while plenty of the northeast and midwest is still tight. so it’s a real glut in some metros and still a shortage in others.

    • Investor · Fort Lauderdale, FL · Member since 2013 · 921 posts · 607 votes
      2d

      I agree, David. The saying that "real estate is local" has never been more accurate. Bidding wars in the northeast; the condo market in Florida is deathly quiet.

  • Lewisville, TX · Member since 2015 · 344 posts · 264 votes
    2d

    It’s over prepare for war & rapture.

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