Same cash-flow screen, 3 markets: Cleveland 421 passed, Indy 1, Mendocino 1

Same cash-flow screen, 3 markets: Cleveland 421 passed, Indy 1, Mendocino 1

Member since 2020 · 15 posts · 2 votes

I ran an identical screen (25% down, 7%, full expense load, rent at 85% of HUD SAFMR) on three markets this week:

  • Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH: 2,036 evaluated, 421 passed, 121 strong

  • Indianapolis / Marion, IN: 232 evaluated, 1 passed, 0 strong

  • Mendocino County, CA: 221 evaluated, 1 passed, 1 strong

Note: the Indy pull was a smaller listing sample, so I'm not calling the city dead. But at 7% with management and capex included, the gap is big.

Takeaways for out-of-state buyers:

  1. Small multi-family is where the math works. In Cleveland, half of 2–4 units passed vs about 1 in 9 single-family homes.

  2. Don't screen on the 1% rule alone. Of 757 Cleveland listings meeting it, 336 still went negative.

  3. Even in the "cash-flow market," the median passer clears only ~$150/mo. Reserves matter more than the headline.

What markets are you seeing pencil at today's rates?

Disclosure: I work on ROW (Row Home Solutions), which runs this screen.

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  • Diana KhanPro Member
    Attorney · 10451 Mill Run Cir #755 Owings Mills, MD 21117 · Member since 2024 · 631 posts · 217 votes
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    Quote from @Thomas Cruz Fragoza:

    I ran an identical screen (25% down, 7%, full expense load, rent at 85% of HUD SAFMR) on three markets this week:

    • Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH: 2,036 evaluated, 421 passed, 121 strong

    • Indianapolis / Marion, IN: 232 evaluated, 1 passed, 0 strong

    • Mendocino County, CA: 221 evaluated, 1 passed, 1 strong

    Note: the Indy pull was a smaller listing sample, so I'm not calling the city dead. But at 7% with management and capex included, the gap is big.

    Takeaways for out-of-state buyers:

    1. Small multi-family is where the math works. In Cleveland, half of 2–4 units passed vs about 1 in 9 single-family homes.

    2. Don't screen on the 1% rule alone. Of 757 Cleveland listings meeting it, 336 still went negative.

    3. Even in the "cash-flow market," the median passer clears only ~$150/mo. Reserves matter more than the headline.

    What markets are you seeing pencil at today's rates?

    Disclosure: I work on ROW (Row Home Solutions), which runs this screen.

    @Thomas Cruz Fragoza, I think you make a good point about not relying on the 1% rule alone. I don't have a recent market comparison to add, but I agree that investors need to look at the full picture. A property may look good on paper, but unexpected expenses or property issues can quickly change those numbers.

    I'm a real estate attorney and investor based in Maryland, and I work with clients on property transactions, contracts, and ownership matters. I've seen how important it is to look beyond the purchase price and projected rent, especially when buying properties with existing tenants or unresolved issues.

    I appreciate you sharing these numbers, @Thomas Cruz Fragoza. It's interesting to see how different the results are when you use the same assumptions across markets. Happy to stay connected!

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