Quick read on where things stand going into Fed week, because the bond market moved more last week than the Fed is likely to move this week.

Thursday's rally pulled the 10-year Treasury down to 4.96% from 5.13% the day before. By Friday's close it was back near 5.00%, and Mortgage News Daily's 30-year index was up to 7.33%. The reason was oil. Brent settled at $116.72 on Friday, a six-month high, and WTI at $103.27. September CPI came in at 3.7% year over year while core rose only 0.3% for the month, so energy is doing most of the work on headline inflation.

What that does to an exit: mortgage rates have been running about 2.33 points over the 10-year. Hold that spread, move the 10-year by last week's range, and a buyer on a $1,786 payment can borrow anywhere from about $256,400 at 7.46% to $263,100 at 7.20%. That's $6,700 of buying power from one week of bond movement, roughly $3,500 each way from where it sits now.

How I'd use that:

Flips selling in three to six months: price the exit at the high end of that rate range. If rates rally, that's profit, not the plan.

Rentals refinancing out: on a $250,000 takeout at illustrative market rates, the same range is $1,697 to $1,741 a month. If your coverage only clears at the low end, it doesn't clear.

Multifamily: cap rates follow the 10-year more than the Fed, and a 10-year at 5% doesn't leave much room for compression in an acquisition model.

The Fed decides Wednesday at 1:00 p.m. Central. A hold is expected, and the number of dissents is what tells you about December. Worth remembering that when the Fed hiked in September the 10-year actually fell, so a hold doesn't guarantee lower mortgage rates, and a hawkish hold doesn't guarantee higher ones.

I put the full write-up on my website, which you can find through my profile, and you can sign up there to get new reports by email.

For those of you with flips listing this winter: are you underwriting the exit at today's rate, or building in a cushion for rates going higher?