Freddie Mac's 30-year average came in at 7.32% on Thursday, down from 7.40%. That's the first weekly decline since August. A year ago it was 6.19%.

I ran it on Houston's median house, $325,000 with 20% down. The payment on the $260,000 loan goes from $1,800 to $1,786. At last year's rate the same loan was $1,591. So your exit buyer got back $14 of the $209 a month they've lost since last fall. A builder's average 6% price cut is worth about $108 a month to that same buyer, which is why new construction keeps winning the comparison.

The drop came on one day. The 10-year Treasury fell from 5.13% to 4.96% Thursday during a tech-stock selloff, and by Friday's close it was back near 5%. A rally built on fear can reverse just as fast.

Houston from HAR's September numbers: 40,192 active listings, up 6.3% from a year ago, 5.5 months of supply, closings down 5.7% and pending sales down 11.6%. Pendings falling faster than closings means October closings should come in weaker and the backlog is still growing.

Next week has the Fed on Wednesday (a hold is widely expected, so I'm watching the vote split) and Q3 GDP plus September PCE inflation on Thursday.

My take: I wouldn't move an exit price or a rental takeout assumption on one week of relief this small.

The full write-up is on my website, which you can find through my profile, and investors can sign up there to get new reports by email.

Question for the flippers here: are you underwriting your exit at today's rate and letting the buyer's payment set the price, or are you baking in a concession on top? If you're baking one in, how big?