Last week I put up a Cleveland screen and got some good pushback. People wanted stress tests and a bad-debt line, and @Gladimir Lobo was right that a screen can't see condition, lead or what's happening street to street. So I ran Toledo the same way with those built in. I'm posting it so the people who actually own and manage there can correct it.

What I screened: every active listing from $60k to $600k in Toledo (single family, 2–4 units, condos), pulled Oct 23. That's 758 listings.

Assumptions: 25% down at 7% on a 30-year, 3% closing, 8% vacancy plus 2% bad debt, 7% repairs, 8% capex and 10% management. Rents come from HUD's fair market rents, discounted and capped at Zillow's rent index. Taxes are at the full non-owner-occupied rate, as if the auditor reassesses to purchase price. I ran insurance two ways: the Ohio average scaled to the house plus 20% for a landlord policy, and a flat $1,500 a year.

What came out:

- 148 of 758 cash flow with scaled insurance, and 38 clear $200 a month at 8% cash-on-cash. At a flat $1,500, it's 103, with 28 clearing that bar.

- 2–4 units held up a lot better than single family. Condos basically didn't work.

- The 1% rule fooled me again. Plenty of houses that hit it still lost money.

- Almost everything that worked is under $150k, and most of it is under $100k.

- The typical passer clears about $100–120 a month. That's thin.

Stress test: I hit it with 5% bad debt, 10% lower rent and 25% higher insurance all at once. 67 still cash flow (39 at $1,500), and most of those are 2–4 units. Of the single stresses, lower rent hurts the most.

What it can't see: condition, rehab, Toledo's lead-safe certificate for pre-1978 rentals, what the auditor really does after a sale, real insurance quotes, or which block you're on. It tells me where to spend time. It's not a buy list.

Three things I'd like from locals:

1. What does a rehabbed 3-bed single family actually rent for in 43605 and 43609?

2. What are you paying for a landlord policy on a $70–90k house? The difference between about $800 and $1,500 swings 45 listings.

3. Roughly what does a lead-safe certificate cost on an older single family or duplex, and how long does it take?

I built this screen through my business, Row Home Solutions. Throw me different assumptions and I'll rerun it.

Thomas