When I got licensed in 2013, the Louisville MLS had somewhere around 1,800 to 2,200 homes for sale on any given day. Over the weekend it briefly topped 4,700.

That number by itself isn't a crash. Here's what's underneath it. Jefferson County, single-family, straight from the MLS, September (the last full month):

• 2,527 for sale, up from 1,922 in September 2025 (+31%) and 1,720 this February

• 669 went under contract, down from 888 a year ago (-25%)

• 858 closed, basically flat with 847 a year ago

• Median sold price $285,000

• Average 28 days on market, 40 cumulative

• Sold at 96.8% of original list price

• About 2.9 months of supply, up from 2.0 in February

Small commercial, meaning duplexes, triplexes and fourplexes, moved a lot faster:

• 168 for sale, up from 113 a year ago (+49%) and 88 in February

• About 9.9 months of supply, up from 4.65 in February. More than doubled in seven months.

How I read it. Single-family is still a seller's market on paper, since anything under about six months of supply usually is. But the gap is closing, and the story is in the pendings. More listings, fewer contracts, about the same number of closings, and prices haven't broken. Sellers aren't panicking. They're waiting. Buyers are slower to commit. That's a standoff, and standoffs are where deals get made.

The 2 to 4 unit side is already buyer territory.

What I'd do if I were buying here this winter:

1. Look at what's been sitting. 60, 90, 120 days. That seller has been waiting a long time for a buyer who hasn't shown up, and a tired seller will listen to things a busy seller won't.

2. Run three numbers before you fall for anything: what it's worth fixed up, what it costs to fix, and what it rents for. Five minutes tells you whether it deserves a second look.

3. Send a lot of letters of intent. One page: here's what I'd pay and how I'd pay it. It's easy for a seller to say yes, no, or let's talk. A no costs you nothing.

4. Ask about terms, not just price. A seller who won't come down on price might carry the note, do a lease option, or have an assumable FHA or VA loan with a rate nobody can get today.

5. Follow up. Most deals don't come from the first offer. They come from the follow-up.

Fall and winter are when a lot of people pull their listings and wait for spring. The sellers who stay listed through the holidays usually have a real reason to sell. What you plant in October and November is what you close in March.

The honest downside: a lot of Louisville's 2 to 4 unit stock is older, so condition hurts out-of-state buyers more than price does. Underwrite on real rents and today's rates, not the listing's projections.

Curious how this compares where you are. What's your market's months of supply right now for single-family versus small multifamily, and are you seeing the same split?