Bonds moved fast on the election results overnight. Mortgages haven't, at least not yet.

With Democrats projected to take both chambers, the 10-year Treasury dropped to roughly 4.90%. It was 4.91% Monday and 5.05% on October 28. The bond market's read is fiscal, not political: a split government makes a big new spending or tax bill harder to pass, which means less new Treasury supply. Stock futures sold off too, and that money went looking for safety.

Mortgage News Daily's 30-year index actually ticked up Tuesday, to 7.30% from 7.27%. Freddie Mac's weekly number is 7.24% and updates Thursday.

Here's how I'm thinking about it on a flip. On a $264,000 loan (20% down on a $330,000 house), principal and interest at 7.30% is about $1,810. Hold that payment constant and every tenth of a point is worth about $2,600 of loan to your exit buyer, roughly $266,600 at 7.20% and $261,400 at 7.40%. That's real, but it isn't a windfall, and I wouldn't build a resale price on a rally that hasn't reached borrowers.

On rentals it's even smaller. A $250,000 takeout runs about $1,714 a month at 7.30% and $1,697 at 7.20%. Seventeen dollars won't save a deal that doesn't cover.

The other side of the ledger: September job openings rose to 7.5 million and quits to 3.4 million, and markets still price about a 75% chance of a Fed hike on December 9. Friday's jobs report (consensus 55,000) and the Treasury's auction plan this morning decide whether 4.90% holds.

I put the longer write-up on my website, which you can find through my profile.

For those of you underwriting exits right now: are you pricing the resale off today's 7.30%, or are you already baking in some of this rally?