October payrolls came in at 165,000. The consensus was around 55,000, unemployment dropped to 4.1%, and August and September got revised up by a combined 84,000. On a normal day that sends mortgage rates up.

They didn't move. Mortgage News Daily's 30-year index ended Friday at 7.17%, the same as Thursday and down from 7.27% the week before. The 10-year Treasury spiked for a few minutes after the release and then closed near 4.86%.

The short end did react. The 2-year rose and the odds of a December Fed hike went from about 67% to about 77%. So the Fed's leaning tighter while the rate your buyer actually pays is drifting lower.

My read is that the bond market spent the week watching tech stocks, not payrolls. When AI and chip names sell off, money goes into Treasuries and holds long rates down. That's a real cushion, but the Fed isn't the one giving it to you, and it goes away if stocks settle down.

Here's what it does on a flip. A $264,000 loan at 7.17% runs about $1,787 a month, against $1,805 at last week's 7.27%. Hold the payment where it was and your exit buyer can carry about $2,600 more loan. A quarter point higher takes that buyer down to about $257,500. That's why I'm still pricing resales at today's rate and not counting on more.

Next test is October CPI on Tuesday. There won't be a yearly rate for all items this time because October 2025 prices weren't collected during the shutdown, so the monthly number is the one to watch.

I keep the full weekly write-up on my website, which you can find through my profile.

Question for the flippers here: when you price a resale that'll list three to six months from now, what rate do you assume your buyer gets? Today's, or something with a cushion built in?