Condos at 20% down: 526 of 20,683 cover the payment. The HOA fee picks which

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Condos at 20% down: 526 of 20,683 cover the payment. The HOA fee picks which

David LurveyPro Member
Technology · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2026 · 36 posts · 7 votes

Condos come up here a lot, usually as "do they ever work with the HOA?" So I ran them.

The screen: 20,683 condos for sale across 10 markets (Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm, Tampa Bay, Sarasota, Fort Walton-Destin, Panama City, Houston, Dallas, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Springfield MO). Each has a rent estimate and a known HOA fee. 30-year at 7.25%, full PITIA, where the A is the HOA.

Rent covers the full payment (DSCR 1.0):
- 20% down: 526
- 25% down: 841
- 30% down: 1,285

At DSCR 1.25 with 20% down it's 10, and I wouldn't trust half of those: HOA fees of $1, $31, $38 and $45 a month are almost certainly data errors.

The fee is what decides it. Same price range ($120k-$180k), sorted by HOA:
- Under $300 a month: 87 of 259 cover the payment (1 in 3)
- $300-499: 165 of 1,266 (1 in 8)
- $500-799: 61 of 1,867 (1 in 30)
- $800 and up: 0 of 386

The median condo in this set has a $750 fee. The ones that cover the payment have a median fee of $356, and run about $150k against $1,775 rent.

Where they are: 380 of the 526 are in the Miami metro, led by Miami, Homestead, Greenacres, Lauderhill, West Palm, Hialeah and Hollywood. Then Houston 38, Indianapolis, Tampa Bay and Dallas 24 each, Sarasota 17, Kansas City 16. Panama City has none and Fort Walton-Destin has one; fees there run close to $1,000.

Two things these numbers don't catch:
1. Special assessments. A lot of the cheap South Florida condos are in older buildings, and the post-Surfside rules (milestone inspections, funded structural reserves) are pushing fees up. A $350 fee can be a fee that hasn't caught up yet. Get the reserve study and the last couple of years of minutes.
2. Financing. Some of these will be non-warrantable, and DSCR lenders often want more than 20% down on those, which is why the 25% and 30% counts are there.

One thing runs the other way: I price condo insurance like a house, by the square foot. A walls-in HO-6 policy usually costs less, so these counts are, if anything, low.

For the Florida folks: what are you seeing on fees now that the reserve studies are in? Are buildings under $400 a month staying there?

Disclosure: I built NetsPositive, which is where these counts come from.

[email protected]941-307-3254
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  • Ametria Chaney
    Realtor · Memphis, Shelby County · Member since 2026 · 348 posts · 123 votes
    17h

    Hi David, this is a helpful way to frame it — the HOA fee is the line item I see trip up the most condo buyers. Your numbers tell the story: in that same $120k–$180k range, one in three condos with a fee under $300 covers the payment, and none of them do once fees pass $800. The other thing I'd add is to look at what the fee covers and the association's health — a low fee with a thin reserve can mean a special assessment is coming, and a fee that keeps climbing year after year will eat the cash flow you're counting on. So the question isn't just 'does it cover the payment today?' — it's 'does it still cover it in three years, after the fee goes up and something breaks?' Thanks for running the numbers on so many listings; that kind of transparency helps everyone.

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    • David LurveyPro Member
      OP
      Technology · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2026 · 36 posts · 7 votes
      15h

      Thanks, Ametria. I ran your three-year question. Of the 506 condos that cover the payment at 20% down today, the median one clears it by just $67 a month, so there isn't much room.

      If the fee goes up 10% a year and rent stays flat, 171 still cover the payment in three years. If rent also grows 3% a year, it's 489, but that holds taxes and insurance flat, which in Florida I wouldn't count on. A $100 a month special assessment leaves 176, and $200 leaves 54.

      So the reserve check you're describing is most of the deal on these.

      [email protected]941-307-3254
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