NH rents down 4.6% while sold prices up 7% — how are landlords penciling deals?

Question

New Hampshire buy-and-hold math got squeezed from both sides in October — prices up on the buy, rents down on the hold.

Per Realtor.com October 2026 data: the median sold price rose 7% year over year to $535,000, while the median listing price eased to $590,000, down 0.41% year over year. Median days on market climbed 25.53% year over year to 59 days, and active listings stood at 8,030, up 3.15% year over year, with homes still selling at 100% of asking on average. On the rental side, rental properties jumped 40.90% year over year to 1,864, and the median rent fell 4.55% year over year to $2,100 a month, down another 1.82% month over month.

I'm a Realtor licensed in NH with Candor Investment Group / eXp Realty, and co-founder of TWM Residential, operating 17+ rental units. I work southern NH regularly, and this is the spread I watch first: a landlord buying at a sold median that is up 7% cannot underwrite yesterday's rent growth when the statewide median rent is down 4.55% and rental supply is up almost 41%. The 59 days on market helps on the buy side — more time, less panic bidding — but it does not fix a thin rent-to-price ratio at Freddie Mac's 7.18% 30-year rate (Nov 5 survey, down from 7.24%).

NH landlords — with rents down 4.6% and sold prices up 7% in the same year, what rent and purchase-price assumptions are you using to make a new buy-and-hold pencil at 7.18% money?

Inder Singh · Answer

Ametria — great question, and honestly it's a mix. I'm seeing more price cuts than six months ago, but most sellers are still listing for last year's rents and then cutting once the home sits. The ones who price to today's rent from day one are the ones actually moving. Your point on underwriting today's rent as a ceiling is the right discipline. On my own deals, if the numbers only work at the top of the rent range, I pass — a few percent down after closing turns a thin deal into a loser fast, exactly like you said. The vacancy test is the other one I run: if the deal can't survive a turnover at the lower rent, it's not a deal yet. Thanks for the thoughtful reply — appreciate it.

Ametria Chaney · Answer

Hi Inder, this is the puzzle a lot of landlords are working through. When rents are softening and prices are still climbing, the math has to come from somewhere — and usually that somewhere is the down payment. I'd be penciling deals with today's actual rent, not last year's, and with the $2,100 median rent you quoted as a ceiling, not a starting point, because a rent that falls another few percent after you close can turn a thin deal into a losing one fast. The other question I'd ask is whether the deal still works if you hold it through a vacancy or turnover at that lower rent. In Memphis I see the same tension: investors who buy on conservative rent assumptions sleep better than the ones who underwrote the top of the range. Are you seeing sellers adjust, or are most listings still priced for last year's rents?

NH rents down 4.6% while sold prices up 7% — how are landlords penciling deals?

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