In Hayward, Union City, and Newark, values can swing significantly block by block, so verifying your ARV with super tight comps (same bed/bath, similar sqft, within 6 months, same zip or immediate area) is critical before committing.A few things I'd suggest given your numbers:First, stress test that $900k ARV hard.

This is up to 2024 data, but when I add 2025, Calgary is following the red, Edmonton the green, but I expect Edmonton will level off or decrease in 2026.

Is the sponsor working with a relationship based lender they have gone round trip with before especially through adversity which is actually a positive or are they relying on expensive debt because the deal or the GP does not qualify which is a major red flagFixed versus adjustable rates and length of runway including term length extension options and whether the deal was stress tested across different rate scenariosReserves and contingent funds and whether they are real and sufficient or merely cosmeticEvaluation of how sources and uses are being allocated and whether the capital stack fully funds the business plan or leaves gaps with a "we will figure it out later mentality"The fund that I invested in with ODC actually has fixed rate debt, so there was not a similar learning point, although the ODC fund is also performing terribly.The reason has more to do with rent growth. 

She stressed to think of the mindset, how there is 0 certainty, 0 knowing, that the kind of person comfortable with such was not aligned with my desire for the most responsible type tenants who'd have way too much unease with such unknown situation of M2M. 

This typically cannot occur without leverage.in most markets the only reasons to go unleveraged is 1) leverage causes you stress.  

.• Optionality: selling preserves flexibility during a high-stress life phase; holding makes more sense when reserves are strong.• Future upside vs present strain: appreciation is theoretical, monthly outflow is real.There’s no wrong answer here — just tradeoffs.

I think the best thing to do is to find a property (ideally close by to you) that is low risk, and "non-glamourous" and reach outt o the owner and just start the conversation...Stressing about funding etc only causes more anxiety...whereas maybe they are looking for a "quick" way out, for example seller financing (you pay them a set amount monthly as if they're the bank).

Instead, you have chosen to lose 4 months of rent * $1,300 = $5,200.You should get an aggressive rent decrease model. 

Agree with the points here about averaging comps and stress testing.

I haven’t personally built full underwriting models or written IC memos end-to-end, but I’ve spent years reviewing them, stress-testing assumptions, providing feedback, and helping determine whether deals were good or bad investments.What I haven’t done is originate and execute a deal entirely on my own as a principal.Specifically, I haven’t personally:Sourced deals directly from brokers as a buyer under my own entityRun a full acquisition process independentlySet up banking, accounting, and reporting systems from scratchSelected and onboarded property managers and construction teams independentlyBuilt investor systems and reporting infrastructure from zeroPut legal documents in place for a new investment platformFully controlled the capital raise, including locking in commitments ahead of bidding with confidenceConceptually, I understand how all of this works, but it still feels theoretical because I haven’t personally owned every step.