This Ponzi has run it's course and is now in the end stage of collapse.        

Once lead times collapse and calendars fill late, that’s usually the tell that supply has won.

Get this wrong, and the rest collapses.

Industry gains were again concentrated in health care and hospitality — echoing the government report.Zooming out tells the real story:Past 3 months: ~20,000 jobs/monthPast 12 months: ~51,000 jobs/monthPast 5 months combined: just 27,000 jobsWhy this matters: Hiring isn’t collapsing — but it’s clearly losing momentum, which supports the case for lower rates later this year.More Data Confirms the Labor Market Is CoolingOther indicators back this up:Initial jobless claims ticked higherContinuing claims rose sharply and remain elevatedJob openings fell to 7.15 million, well below 2022 levelsHiring rate (3.2%) and quit rate (2.0%) remain near decade lowsAnnual job cuts for 2025: 1.2 million — one of the highest totals since 1989Hiring announcements: weakest year since 2010Bottom line: This is a “low-fire, low-hire” labor market — not a crash, but steady cooling.Housing Starts Drop to Pandemic-Era LowsNew home construction is slowing more than many expected.Housing Starts fell 4.6% to their lowest level since early 2020.

When affordability deteriorates and foreclosures rise, motivated sellers and distressed situations increase — the very types of scenarios where creative offers (lease options, seller financing, subject-to, etc.) outperform rigid, conventional strategies.Higher risk for traditional buyers doesn’t mean a collapse for savvy investors.

Professional services grow steadily instead of spiking and collapsing.

The quits rate has cooled to about 2.0%, down from roughly 3.0% during the post-pandemic surge — a sign people are less confident jumping ship.Wage growth hasn’t collapsed, but it has slowed into the 4% range, well below the pace that fueled aggressive housing demand a few years ago.Now housing affordability.The National Association of Realtors’ Housing Affordability Index recently printed around 92, well below the long-term baseline of 100.

@David FunkHi David,So as you mentioned BRRR, I presume you are looking for an appraiser with regards to refinancing a property... but as I understand it, lenders have to assign the appraiser so that it is independent of the borrower (this after a lot of mortgage fraud back in the 2008 era housing collapse.)

I'm convinced that a lot of the capital calls are as much about shoring up the operational bottom line to prevent total collapse and blowing up their future funds as it is about stabilizing & improving existing funds.

I didn’t leave enough of a safety buffer, and shortly after, I had a chimney collapse on a 3.5 story tall building that damaged the roof and even went through a neighbor’s window.