Like @Doug Smith noted, the condo market here is the poster child for bad real estate investments, at least currently.That Surfside condo collapse back in '21 changed everything. 

While the operator initially projected strong returns, the fund has failed to pay distributions for over two years, and several key performance metrics have declined sharply.Key Performance Data (as of Q4 2025 Report):Occupancy Collapse: Occupancy has dropped from 97.5% at acquisition to 78.1%.Net Operating Income (NOI) Decline: Annualized NOI has fallen from $3,323,252 at acquisition to $2,525,046—a nearly 25% decrease.Loan Non-Compliance: The portfolio’s Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) is currently 1.10x, which is below the 1.25x covenant required by the lender.Lender Cash Sweep: Due to the covenant breach, the lender has initiated a mandatory cash sweep.

If you think the stock market will collapse 50% and the USD will lose 75% in the next 10 years then it is a great buy, even if it doesn’t go up in value.3.  

Economic data this morning reinforced the same theme markets have been grappling with all week: cooling but not collapsing.

This turns a "ceiling collapse in the unit below" event into a quick "mop-up" event.However, the silent killer is the "Hidden Leak": Pinhole supply lines, water heater base leaks, and slow drips behind cabinetry.

Flexibility around the exit — extension options, paydown mechanics, and refinance assumptions matter more than a few bps.Structure, not just price — reserves, covenants, and recourse terms often determine how much room a borrower has when the market shifts.Underwriting realism — lenders who underwrite to today’s cash flow and value reduce surprise friction later.A slightly higher rate with certainty and flexibility usually beats a lower rate that collapses under timing or exit pressure.

Water line leak, sewer collapse, major electrical issues, etc.

Once lead times collapse and calendars fill late, that’s usually the tell that supply has won.

Industry gains were again concentrated in health care and hospitality — echoing the government report.Zooming out tells the real story:Past 3 months: ~20,000 jobs/monthPast 12 months: ~51,000 jobs/monthPast 5 months combined: just 27,000 jobsWhy this matters: Hiring isn’t collapsing — but it’s clearly losing momentum, which supports the case for lower rates later this year.More Data Confirms the Labor Market Is CoolingOther indicators back this up:Initial jobless claims ticked higherContinuing claims rose sharply and remain elevatedJob openings fell to 7.15 million, well below 2022 levelsHiring rate (3.2%) and quit rate (2.0%) remain near decade lowsAnnual job cuts for 2025: 1.2 million — one of the highest totals since 1989Hiring announcements: weakest year since 2010Bottom line: This is a “low-fire, low-hire” labor market — not a crash, but steady cooling.Housing Starts Drop to Pandemic-Era LowsNew home construction is slowing more than many expected.Housing Starts fell 4.6% to their lowest level since early 2020.

When affordability deteriorates and foreclosures rise, motivated sellers and distressed situations increase — the very types of scenarios where creative offers (lease options, seller financing, subject-to, etc.) outperform rigid, conventional strategies.Higher risk for traditional buyers doesn’t mean a collapse for savvy investors.