Our Pets Heads Are Falling Off?

[Rob Bergeron]

“In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity.”
– Sun Tzu

Let’s start with the numbers.

• Collective loan delinquencies: highest level since 2017
• Student loan delinquencies: 16.3%

• Wage garnishments restarting
• Credit score drops in many cases exceeding 100 points
• U.S. adult optimism: 59.2% — the lowest Gallup has ever recorded
• 30-year fixed mortgage rate: 5.74%
• Louisville active listings: 3,076
• Months of supply: just over 2.5
• Fix-and-Flip Market Index: largest quarterly gain in three years

That’s the landscape.

When delinquencies reach the highest level since 2017 and garnishments resume, liquidity tightens. Lower credit scores shrink the buyer pool. Marginal buyers fall out.

When optimism drops to 59.2%, hesitation increases. Hesitation slows transaction velocity. Slower velocity creates negotiation leverage.

Now the other side.

A 5.74% 30-year fixed rate improves affordability compared to recent months. That benefits:

• End buyers (lower payments)
• Flippers (healthier resale demand)
• Investors refinancing
• BRRRR strategies modeling exits

Lower payments improve purchasing power. Purchasing power improves resale confidence. Confidence reduces hold risk.

At the same time, the Fix-and-Flip Market Index posting its strongest quarterly gain in three years tells you experienced operators are already adjusting — not retreating.

Locally, 3,076 active listings and just over 2.5 months of supply is not distress. It’s not oversupply. It’s not mania. It’s balance with negotiation room.

This is what a transition cycle looks like:

Liquidity tightens.
Psychology weakens.
Professionals sharpen.

If optimism is falling nationally, you create your own.

If you have stable income and the ability to acquire productive assets, this is a strategic environment — not a collapse environment.

Housing remains foundational.
Industrial keeps expanding.
Data centers continue scaling.
Manufacturing is reshoring.
Energy and water infrastructure remain essential.
Land is finite.

In any version of the future, those categories matter.

The question isn’t whether there’s stress in the system.

There is.

The question is whether you use this period to strengthen your position. Do it!