Buy Signals in the Smokies

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Buy Signals in the Smokies

Collin HaysBusiness Member
Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes

For seemingly years, I cautioned of sell signals. In 2022, caution lights were flashing everywhere. The main one being irrational exuberance about owning a STR. Everyone had to have one, regardless of price. If you are inclined to sell, that is the time.

I think things have bottomed.  Everyone now seems more interested in SELLING.  That is normally a BUY signal.

Take a look at the yellow button on this realty company’s website:


”Get My Cabin Sold.”  That is the prevailing sentiment, and it means it’s probably a good time to be on the lookout for a good buy.

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Ryan MoyerBusiness Member
Property Manager · Orlando Kissimmee Davenport Salt Lake City, Park City · Member since 2019 · 991 posts · 1k+ votes
6mo

Similar in Kissimmee. I was warning people about it during all the exuberance. But as the most saturated market, it was kind of ahead of the curve on declining property values to the point where it seems to have really bottomed while other markets are still earlier in their downward trend.

Had a client recently that bought a top end themed home (those never even used to go for sale) in the low $700's that is very similar to a property we managed down the street that did $130k in 2025. 

That's turnkey, which are returns you don't usually see on a ~$700k purchase these days fully turnkey, without having to put a bunch of money into the home.

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  • Michael Eskenasy
    Investor · Pacific Northwest · Member since 2026 · 538 posts · 304 votes
    6mo

    @Collin Hays 

    Interesting observation. The “Get My Cabin Sold” messaging showing up on agent sites is definitely a sentiment signal.

    What I’m curious about is whether the shift is primarily owner fatigue from the STR management side or financing pressure from owners who bought at peak prices when rates were lower.

    In a lot of markets the listing pressure seems to be coming from operators who underestimated operating complexity rather than pure demand collapse.

    If that’s the case, the opportunity may not just be lower prices — it might be buying assets from operators who were never really set up to run them efficiently.

    Are you seeing the inventory increase mostly from newer owners exiting, or from long-time operators repositioning?

    2Reply
    • Collin HaysBusiness Member
      OP
      Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
      6mo
      Quote from @Michael Eskenasy:

      @Collin Hays 

      Interesting observation. The “Get My Cabin Sold” messaging showing up on agent sites is definitely a sentiment signal.

      What I'm curious about is whether the shift is primarily owner fatigue from the STR management side or financing pressure from owners who bought at peak prices when rates were lower.

      In a lot of markets the listing pressure seems to be coming from operators who underestimated operating complexity rather than pure demand collapse.

      If that’s the case, the opportunity may not just be lower prices — it might be buying assets from operators who were never really set up to run them efficiently.

      Are you seeing the inventory increase mostly from newer owners exiting, or from long-time operators repositioning?

      It’s a mix. Disillusioned owners who didn’t realize how much work it would take, investors who bought way too high to have any chance, and others that have been at it a while and are tired of the hassle. Others are simply panicking.


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    • Michael Eskenasy
      Investor · Pacific Northwest · Member since 2026 · 538 posts · 304 votes
      6mo

      @Collin Hays 

      That makes a lot of sense. What you’re describing almost sounds less like a demand issue and more like an operator fatigue issue.

      A lot of people jumped in during the peak assuming STRs were basically passive rentals, and they’re really not. They’re closer to running a small hospitality business.

      The interesting opportunity might actually be the transition phase — when properties move from owners who underestimated the operational side to operators who have systems in place.

      If the underlying demand for Smokies cabins is still strong, that kind of turnover could create some good buying windows for people who are set up to run them efficiently.

      Curious whether you’re seeing more of these come from newer owners exiting, or from longer-term operators who are just deciding the effort isn’t worth it anymore.

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    • Collin HaysBusiness Member
      OP
      Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
      6mo
      Quote from @Michael Eskenasy:

      @Collin Hays 

      That makes a lot of sense. What you’re describing almost sounds less like a demand issue and more like an operator fatigue issue.

      A lot of people jumped in during the peak assuming STRs were basically passive rentals, and they’re really not. They’re closer to running a small hospitality business.

      The interesting opportunity might actually be the transition phase — when properties move from owners who underestimated the operational side to operators who have systems in place.

      If the underlying demand for Smokies cabins is still strong, that kind of turnover could create some good buying windows for people who are set up to run them efficiently.

      Curious whether you’re seeing more of these come from newer owners exiting, or from longer-term operators who are just deciding the effort isn’t worth it anymore.


      I am in the property management business, so I do not have much insight into the seller psyche.  We have lost a couple of properties due to sales; the owners were exhausted of it.  But in both of those cases, it was never going to work for them, given what they invested in the properties to begin with.

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    • Drew SygitBusiness Member
      Property Manager · Royal Oak, MI · Member since 2012 · 12k+ posts · 9k+ votes
      6mo
      Quote from @Michael Eskenasy:

      @Collin Hays 

      Interesting observation. The “Get My Cabin Sold” messaging showing up on agent sites is definitely a sentiment signal.

      What I'm curious about is whether the shift is primarily owner fatigue from the STR management side or financing pressure from owners who bought at peak prices when rates were lower.

      In a lot of markets the listing pressure seems to be coming from operators who underestimated operating complexity rather than pure demand collapse.

      If that’s the case, the opportunity may not just be lower prices — it might be buying assets from operators who were never really set up to run them efficiently.

      Are you seeing the inventory increase mostly from newer owners exiting, or from long-time operators repositioning?


      If an STR was profitable, an owner-operator could hire PMC to relieve that issue.

      So, logically, there's a higher probability of financial pressure driving the trend.

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  • Ryan MoyerBusiness Member
    Property Manager · Orlando Kissimmee Davenport Salt Lake City, Park City · Member since 2019 · 991 posts · 1k+ votes
    6mo

    Similar in Kissimmee. I was warning people about it during all the exuberance. But as the most saturated market, it was kind of ahead of the curve on declining property values to the point where it seems to have really bottomed while other markets are still earlier in their downward trend.

    Had a client recently that bought a top end themed home (those never even used to go for sale) in the low $700's that is very similar to a property we managed down the street that did $130k in 2025. 

    That's turnkey, which are returns you don't usually see on a ~$700k purchase these days fully turnkey, without having to put a bunch of money into the home.

    Cosmic Vacations4.9174 Reviews
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    • Dan H.Pro Member
      Investor · Poway, CA · Member since 2015 · 7k+ posts · 8k+ votes
      6mo
      Quote from @Ryan Moyer:

      Similar in Kissimmee. I was warning people about it during all the exuberance. But as the most saturated market, it was kind of ahead of the curve on declining property values to the point where it seems to have really bottomed while other markets are still earlier in their downward trend.

      Had a client recently that bought a top end themed home (those never even used to go for sale) in the low $700's that is very similar to a property we managed down the street that did $130k in 2025. 

      That's turnkey, which are returns you don't usually see on a ~$700k purchase these days fully turnkey, without having to put a bunch of money into the home.


       >That's turnkey, which are returns you don't usually see on a ~$700k purchase these days fully turnkey, without having to put a bunch of money into the home.

      That is very market specific statement.  

      I know markets less than $500k managed right would get $130k revenue.

      I know other markets $1m could be challenging to get $130k revenue.

      0Reply
  • Mike GrudzienPro Member
    Lender · Eugene, OR · Member since 2019 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    6mo

    "Good buy" or "Good-By"?

    1Reply
  • John UnderwoodPro Member
    Investor · Greer, SC · Member since 2014 · 13k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    6mo

    Thanks Collin for this insight.

    Might be a good time to buy "subject to" and take over a low interest rate mortgage also. 

    1Reply
  • Andrew SteffensBusiness Member
    Tampa, FL · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    6mo

    Find me a deal I can't refuse :D

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  • Sunil Ghosal
    Member since 2023 · 39 posts · 13 votes
    6mo

    There are still 4-5 of STR mega developments coming onto the market in the Smokies. Most of them are in the final phases of construction. I recently drove through Smith Creek Reserve and it appears to be about 6-8 Months from full completion. After those mega developments finish there should be a drop off in construction in the area.

    I would not say that it is a good time to buy right now. Revenues are decreasing, costs are up, and sellers are still trying to demand 8-12x multiples of revenue on an asset that is showing YOY negative growth. Either the revenue needs to increase in the near future, which it won't given the continued increase in supply, or the revenue multiples need to come down more.

    1Reply
    • Collin HaysBusiness Member
      OP
      Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
      6mo
      Quote from @Sunil Ghosal:

      There are still 4-5 of STR mega developments coming onto the market in the Smokies. Most of them are in the final phases of construction. I recently drove through Smith Creek Reserve and it appears to be about 6-8 Months from full completion. After those mega developments finish there should be a drop off in construction in the area.

      I would not say that it is a good time to buy right now. Revenues are decreasing, costs are up, and sellers are still trying to demand 8-12x multiples of revenue on an asset that is showing YOY negative growth. Either the revenue needs to increase in the near future, which it won't given the continued increase in supply, or the revenue multiples need to come down more.

      From a macro perspective, you are correct. But an investor is typically only looking for one good deal, and plenty of good deals are out there right now. On a macro perspective, 10-12X annual rents has typically been the going rate in the Smokies.  If you want average, you can score that all day long.  

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    • Jay Fradd
      Real Estate Agent · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2015 · 67 posts · 70 votes
      6mo
      Quote from @Sunil Ghosal:

      There are still 4-5 of STR mega developments coming onto the market in the Smokies. Most of them are in the final phases of construction. I recently drove through Smith Creek Reserve and it appears to be about 6-8 Months from full completion. After those mega developments finish there should be a drop off in construction in the area.

      I would not say that it is a good time to buy right now. Revenues are decreasing, costs are up, and sellers are still trying to demand 8-12x multiples of revenue on an asset that is showing YOY negative growth. Either the revenue needs to increase in the near future, which it won't given the continued increase in supply, or the revenue multiples need to come down more.

      Perry Smith has another development approved and in the works. We'll see when he starts it though. I saw it go through planning commission. And talked to his excavator that would be starting the project. Compass (Austin Williams) still has things going on as well.

      But largely, I agree. Hopefully not many more large scale developments underway in the near future.

      Totally agree with your revenue and multiple assessment.

      Thankfully, I think most people have wised up and aren't paying that upper range (10x and above) gross rental multiplier nearly as often in today's market. Although it does occur in one of two scenarios. A seasoned investor realizing a property is underperforming with the current owner and purchasing at a high GRM based on the prior owner's poor performance. And the new owner being a better operator and revenue manager.

      The second scenario is uneducated purchasers that don't run the numbers or don't understand the costs associated with operating a STR in the Smokies. Or what is included and derived in the gross rental figure often quoted in listing and/or relying on faulty rental "projections".

      0Reply
  • Dana Kimball
    Rental Property Investor · Asheville, NC · Member since 2026 · 17 posts · 13 votes
    6mo

    Seeing the same thing on the Asheville side of the mountains. I run three STR cabins in Buncombe County and the number of listings from burned-out owners has picked up a lot over the last year. Most of these are people who bought in 2021 or 2022 thinking it would basically run itself, and now they're looking at 50% occupancy in the off-season wondering what happened.

    The NC side has a different wrinkle though. Buncombe County has been working on tighter STR zoning rules for a while now, and even though the process got paused, the uncertainty alone is pushing some owners to sell who might otherwise hold. On the TN side it sounds like more of a pure supply story with those mega developments.

    I picked up my Swannanoa cabin in 2023 from an owner who'd been flat-pricing it on Airbnb with zero guest communication. It was doing maybe $30K a year. Same property with dynamic pricing and an actual amenity stack is closer to $46K now. The buy signal isn't just lower prices, it's that so much of the inventory coming to market was never being run well in the first place.

    2Reply
    • Collin HaysBusiness Member
      OP
      Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
      6mo
      Quote from @Dana Kimball:

      Seeing the same thing on the Asheville side of the mountains. I run three STR cabins in Buncombe County and the number of listings from burned-out owners has picked up a lot over the last year. Most of these are people who bought in 2021 or 2022 thinking it would basically run itself, and now they're looking at 50% occupancy in the off-season wondering what happened.

      The NC side has a different wrinkle though. Buncombe County has been working on tighter STR zoning rules for a while now, and even though the process got paused, the uncertainty alone is pushing some owners to sell who might otherwise hold. On the TN side it sounds like more of a pure supply story with those mega developments.

      I picked up my Swannanoa cabin in 2023 from an owner who'd been flat-pricing it on Airbnb with zero guest communication. It was doing maybe $30K a year. Same property with dynamic pricing and an actual amenity stack is closer to $46K now. The buy signal isn't just lower prices, it's that so much of the inventory coming to market was never being run well in the first place.


      Agreed Dana, and welcome! 

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  • Dana Kimball
    Rental Property Investor · Asheville, NC · Member since 2026 · 17 posts · 13 votes
    6mo

    Thanks Collin! Been lurking for a while and finally decided to start sharing.

    0Reply
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