Welcome 👋 and congrats on the growing family — that’s a big motivator to make a move.A pivot like that makes a lot of sense right now, especially with how unpredictable film/post has been.

My point isn’t that STRs are a bad investment, but that you shouldn't just read the playbook and expect to win the game but to understand the unpredictability. 

Chris.Right now some areas of FL are hit pretty hard with insurance for properties and HOA fees are unpredictable.

I’ve generally shied away from older properties for the same reasons — unpredictability around major systems, long-term desirability, and even how future buyers and insurers will view the asset as it continues to age.That said, if you can get comfortable with the condition of the systems, have clarity on what’s been updated (and what hasn’t), or you’re buying at enough of a discount to compensate for that risk, it can absolutely make sense.

Labor wasn’t just a line item anymore—it became the constraint that everything else revolved around.The lesson for me was this: despite your best plans, operating a real business is inherently volatile, unpredictable, complex, and ambiguousIt’s hard to prepare for something you don’t yet know is coming—but you can prepare for the fact that something will come.

Because it's unpredictable.

Bessent sized up against the latter, and this was going to be a flush of the system.The thing is people will blame the current administration for this, when in reality it was the prior that just let this issue form.Trump is deliberately unpredictable, it's not by accident.

From the research I’ve gathered, seems they officially started and the big unpredictable is how many fabs they actually can build.

Most investors want to stay as close to what they'd like to see happen that they forget to leave buffers for unpredictable situations like slower rent growth and higher rehab and operational costs.Aggressive assumptions lead to lower cash flow than expected which could create serious issues for financing and exit.

Quote from @Chris Seveney: Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan: btw to summarise, from the point of view of bridge lenders that issue "capital call" to multifamily it seems they are very well positioned financially to handle this multifamily downfall, this is not unpredictable but rather already assume by the fund manager , so, through active management the (institutional) investors into CLO seems would NOT see losses.