Putting $1M into Crypto
Most Popular Reply
Real Estate Broker · Cleveland Dayton Cincinnati Toledo Columbus & Akron, OH · Member since 2013 · 30k+ posts · 20k+ votes
1yQuote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @James Wise:
Quote from @Steve K.:
@Jay Hinrichs Ohio, Columbus, Cleveland @Jim K. @James Wise
I don't invest in things I don't understand and I don't invest in things that I can't control. For those reasons, I've never got into Crypto so I got no friggin clue.
LOL me too.. my son in law is always telling me to buy it though. And I have some clients in Baltimore that were telling me to buy some when it got down to 15k a few years ago.. But I also had a client the year before get hosed with it.. going form 60k she paid and selling at 20k. I remember when it was 1 dollar and I do kick myself for not taking 1k and buying a thousand of them :) Even though I did not understand it then and done really now.. will stick to renting my money out to others for a fee that seems to have worked for me by and large for decades along with rehabbing or building new construction.. But like crypto can crash real estate was/is not immune from falling either.. we got hammered in 09 to 2011.
I look at it like this......If there is a random group of 10,000 people, I am probably smarter, better, and more experienced than 99% of them when it comes to making money in real estate.
Likewise, if there is a random group of 10,000 people, I am probably less knowledgeable and experienced in Crypto than 99% of them.
Only an idiot would invest their money in an area where they are on the bottom 1% when they could just invest it in an area where they are on the top 1%.
345 Replies
- 1ySteve K.Realtor · Boulder, CO · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 5k+ votesOP
@Jay Hinrichs Ohio, Columbus, Cleveland @Jim K. @James Wise
- Real Estate Broker · Cleveland Dayton Cincinnati Toledo Columbus & Akron, OH · Member since 2013 · 30k+ posts · 20k+ votes1y
Quote from @Steve K.:
@Jay Hinrichs Ohio, Columbus, Cleveland @Jim K. @James Wise
I don't invest in things I don't understand and I don't invest in things that I can't control. For those reasons, I've never got into Crypto so I got no friggin clue.
- 1yJay HinrichsBusiness MemberReal Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
Quote from @James Wise:
Quote from @Steve K.:
@Jay Hinrichs Ohio, Columbus, Cleveland @Jim K. @James Wise
I don't invest in things I don't understand and I don't invest in things that I can't control. For those reasons, I've never got into Crypto so I got no friggin clue.
LOL me too.. my son in law is always telling me to buy it though. And I have some clients in Baltimore that were telling me to buy some when it got down to 15k a few years ago.. But I also had a client the year before get hosed with it.. going form 60k she paid and selling at 20k. I remember when it was 1 dollar and I do kick myself for not taking 1k and buying a thousand of them :) Even though I did not understand it then and done really now.. will stick to renting my money out to others for a fee that seems to have worked for me by and large for decades along with rehabbing or building new construction.. But like crypto can crash real estate was/is not immune from falling either.. we got hammered in 09 to 2011. - Real Estate Broker · Cleveland Dayton Cincinnati Toledo Columbus & Akron, OH · Member since 2013 · 30k+ posts · 20k+ votes1y
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @James Wise:
Quote from @Steve K.:
@Jay Hinrichs Ohio, Columbus, Cleveland @Jim K. @James Wise
I don't invest in things I don't understand and I don't invest in things that I can't control. For those reasons, I've never got into Crypto so I got no friggin clue.
LOL me too.. my son in law is always telling me to buy it though. And I have some clients in Baltimore that were telling me to buy some when it got down to 15k a few years ago.. But I also had a client the year before get hosed with it.. going form 60k she paid and selling at 20k. I remember when it was 1 dollar and I do kick myself for not taking 1k and buying a thousand of them :) Even though I did not understand it then and done really now.. will stick to renting my money out to others for a fee that seems to have worked for me by and large for decades along with rehabbing or building new construction.. But like crypto can crash real estate was/is not immune from falling either.. we got hammered in 09 to 2011.I look at it like this......If there is a random group of 10,000 people, I am probably smarter, better, and more experienced than 99% of them when it comes to making money in real estate.
Likewise, if there is a random group of 10,000 people, I am probably less knowledgeable and experienced in Crypto than 99% of them.
Only an idiot would invest their money in an area where they are on the bottom 1% when they could just invest it in an area where they are on the top 1%.
- Developer · New York City, NY · Member since 2015 · 812 posts · 718 votes1y
Quote from @James Wise:
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @James Wise:
Quote from @Steve K.:
@Jay Hinrichs Ohio, Columbus, Cleveland @Jim K. @James Wise
I don't invest in things I don't understand and I don't invest in things that I can't control. For those reasons, I've never got into Crypto so I got no friggin clue.
LOL me too.. my son in law is always telling me to buy it though. And I have some clients in Baltimore that were telling me to buy some when it got down to 15k a few years ago.. But I also had a client the year before get hosed with it.. going form 60k she paid and selling at 20k. I remember when it was 1 dollar and I do kick myself for not taking 1k and buying a thousand of them :) Even though I did not understand it then and done really now.. will stick to renting my money out to others for a fee that seems to have worked for me by and large for decades along with rehabbing or building new construction.. But like crypto can crash real estate was/is not immune from falling either.. we got hammered in 09 to 2011.I look at it like this......If there is a random group of 10,000 people, I am probably smarter, better, and more experienced than 99% of them when it comes to making money in real estate.
Likewise, if there is a random group of 10,000 people, I am probably less knowledgeable and experienced in Crypto than 99% of them.
Only an idiot would invest their money in an area where they are on the bottom 1% when they could just invest it in an area where they are on the top 1%.
- 1yDan H.Pro MemberInvestor · Poway, CA · Member since 2015 · 7k+ posts · 8k+ votes
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @James Wise:
Quote from @Steve K.:
@Jay Hinrichs Ohio, Columbus, Cleveland @Jim K. @James Wise
I don't invest in things I don't understand and I don't invest in things that I can't control. For those reasons, I've never got into Crypto so I got no friggin clue.
LOL me too.. my son in law is always telling me to buy it though. And I have some clients in Baltimore that were telling me to buy some when it got down to 15k a few years ago.. But I also had a client the year before get hosed with it.. going form 60k she paid and selling at 20k. I remember when it was 1 dollar and I do kick myself for not taking 1k and buying a thousand of them :) Even though I did not understand it then and done really now.. will stick to renting my money out to others for a fee that seems to have worked for me by and large for decades along with rehabbing or building new construction.. But like crypto can crash real estate was/is not immune from falling either.. we got hammered in 09 to 2011.
My then 16 or 17 year old son in 2019 or 2020 purchased a child amount on BitCoin. It is up over 20x, but he only purchased I believe it was $200 or $250 (this purchased a fraction of one Bitcoin - bitcoin was already worth quite a bit). It was a pretty large investment for him at that time. Certainly not going to make him wealthy, but it did teach the value of investing better than I ever could. - Austin, TX · Member since 2019 · 5k+ posts · 5k+ votes1y
Quote from @James Wise:
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @James Wise:
Quote from @Steve K.:
@Jay Hinrichs Ohio, Columbus, Cleveland @Jim K. @James Wise
I don't invest in things I don't understand and I don't invest in things that I can't control. For those reasons, I've never got into Crypto so I got no friggin clue.
LOL me too.. my son in law is always telling me to buy it though. And I have some clients in Baltimore that were telling me to buy some when it got down to 15k a few years ago.. But I also had a client the year before get hosed with it.. going form 60k she paid and selling at 20k. I remember when it was 1 dollar and I do kick myself for not taking 1k and buying a thousand of them :) Even though I did not understand it then and done really now.. will stick to renting my money out to others for a fee that seems to have worked for me by and large for decades along with rehabbing or building new construction.. But like crypto can crash real estate was/is not immune from falling either.. we got hammered in 09 to 2011.I look at it like this......If there is a random group of 10,000 people, I am probably smarter, better, and more experienced than 99% of them when it comes to making money in real estate.
Likewise, if there is a random group of 10,000 people, I am probably less knowledgeable and experienced in Crypto than 99% of them.
Only an idiot would invest their money in an area where they are on the bottom 1% when they could just invest it in an area where they are on the top 1%.
We -------
- 1yArman AhmedPro MemberReal Estate Agent · Columbus Cleveland Dayton, OH · Member since 2024 · 2k+ posts · 904 votes
@Steve K.
The Columbus real estate market remains strong, with steady appreciation, population growth, and a strong rental demand driven by major employers and new developments. While crypto can offer high returns, it’s also highly volatile. Real estate in Columbus provides stable cash flow and long-term wealth-building opportunities, especially with multi-family properties and value-add investments. Diversification is key, but selling real estate entirely for crypto carries significant risk. Happy to connect if you have any questions! - 1yTravis TimmonsPro MemberRental Property Investor · Ellsworth, ME · Member since 2021 · 1k+ posts · 2k+ votes
Do it! My take on crypto is like a lot of things - I'll never bet on it or against it. But you should definitely do it.
Classic that we got a Columbus agent in this thread as well. First class trolling, sir.
- Real Estate Broker · Cleveland Dayton Cincinnati Toledo Columbus & Akron, OH · Member since 2013 · 30k+ posts · 20k+ votes1y
Quote from @Travis Timmons:
Do it! My take on crypto is like a lot of things - I'll never bet on it or against it. But you should definitely do it.
Classic that we got a Columbus agent in this thread as well. First class trolling, sir.
- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes1y
@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever.
It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever.
I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too.
I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid.
When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks.
The new shiny toy is ai.
- 1yV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @James Hamling:
@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever.
It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever.
I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too.
I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid.
When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks.
The new shiny toy is ai.
Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).
People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world. - 1yV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votesapologies niece not daughter in law....getting old.
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever.
It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever.
I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too.
I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid.
When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks.
The new shiny toy is ai.
Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).
People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world. - Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes1y
Quote from @V.G Jason:
apologies niece not daughter in law....getting old.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever.
It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever.
I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too.
I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid.
When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks.
The new shiny toy is ai.
Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).
People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world.In just the last 5 days BTC has ranged in value from a high of $94,380.26 too a low of $81,157.32.
BTC is the very definition of volatile.
No business can humanly exist selling say a loaf of bread on Monday at one value, and come Friday when they go to reorder items to produce more bread, 10% of the sale $ they took in has evaporated into thin air.
And that's just in 5 days. Real moves.
The only reason 85% of people were on the BTC and crypto "train" was because it was going UP in value. Just like NFT's. Just like Tulips had long before.
Now it's rhetoric and assorted other hype to keep the hopeium alive. Because all who have leveraged into it know the fade is running out of runway.
As people get tired of it, don't see parabolic growth and profits, the shine is wearing off and people will sell and move on to what is current, shiny and with prospects of parabolic growth and profits ie ai.
As people sell BTC value goes down. Because it's value is based on NOTHING, literally. It's based on people holding and buying it.
So as it flatlines as it is, sentiment of it coming down grows as it is, selling takes hold and as it sells value drops reinforcing the downward movement and decisions to sell. And a downward spiral begins.
AMC & GME was little different. People chasing rainbows of massive profits. Than bag holders holding out on hopeium. But as time passes more and more wake up to the reality that the rainbows are long gone and 100% annual returns are fantasy but 50% losses are real.
It's the Gold Rush mentality. or better said, a Pump-n-dump. BTC and crypto is just one with some longer track to it than others given the criminal utility of it all. Great if your an international arms smuggler, not so great for a 50-something Jane/John Doe.
It was fun while it lasted, I'm over it now and onto playing ai. Selling Put's, taking leaps, selling calls, making $ 4-ways on market movements.
And continuing to do Real Estate, good-ole-reliable.
Why waste time on a literal gamble of BTC when it's at bizonkers high prices?
It's called buy low n sell high, not buy high and pray for inhuman additional astronomical highs.
Government promised...... Yeah well they been promising me peace on earth, clean water, clear skies, low tax's and all the other oh-so-good for long as I can remember.
Words hype and hopes.
I operate on facts, math and certainty.
- 1yV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
apologies niece not daughter in law....getting old.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever.
It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever.
I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too.
I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid.
When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks.
The new shiny toy is ai.
Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).
People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world.In just the last 5 days BTC has ranged in value from a high of $94,380.26 too a low of $81,157.32.
BTC is the very definition of volatile.
No business can humanly exist selling say a loaf of bread on Monday at one value, and come Friday when they go to reorder items to produce more bread, 10% of the sale $ they took in has evaporated into thin air.
And that's just in 5 days. Real moves.
The only reason 85% of people were on the BTC and crypto "train" was because it was going UP in value. Just like NFT's. Just like Tulips had long before.
Now it's rhetoric and assorted other hype to keep the hopeium alive. Because all who have leveraged into it know the fade is running out of runway.
As people get tired of it, don't see parabolic growth and profits, the shine is wearing off and people will sell and move on to what is current, shiny and with prospects of parabolic growth and profits ie ai.
As people sell BTC value goes down. Because it's value is based on NOTHING, literally. It's based on people holding and buying it.
So as it flatlines as it is, sentiment of it coming down grows as it is, selling takes hold and as it sells value drops reinforcing the downward movement and decisions to sell. And a downward spiral begins.
AMC & GME was little different. People chasing rainbows of massive profits. Than bag holders holding out on hopeium. But as time passes more and more wake up to the reality that the rainbows are long gone and 100% annual returns are fantasy but 50% losses are real.
It's the Gold Rush mentality. or better said, a Pump-n-dump. BTC and crypto is just one with some longer track to it than others given the criminal utility of it all. Great if your an international arms smuggler, not so great for a 50-something Jane/John Doe.
It was fun while it lasted, I'm over it now and onto playing ai. Selling Put's, taking leaps, selling calls, making $ 4-ways on market movements.
And continuing to do Real Estate, good-ole-reliable.
Why waste time on a literal gamble of BTC when it's at bizonkers high prices?
It's called buy low n sell high, not buy high and pray for inhuman additional astronomical highs.
Government promised...... Yeah well they been promising me peace on earth, clean water, clear skies, low tax's and all the other oh-so-good for long as I can remember.
Words hype and hopes.
I operate on facts, math and certainty.
That's very appropriate vol for BTC; VTI and QQQ were 3.5-4% negative in 5d and range quite strong too. Comparatively, that vol for BTC is quite normal. We've seen way bigger vol swings for BTC so not sure that's the point I'd make against it.
BTC vol will tighten once there's more adoption. That's proven given the fact we had significantly more drawdowns and significantly more often when less were invested. Just to give you a vol comparison in the last 10 years Nvidia has had 2 50% drawdowns. There's risk to everything. Given 10 years ago BTC was a fraction of what it's worth now percentage based draw downs are a bit misled given absolute value differential.
BTC adoption has gone institutional, prior it was emerging markets and little retail. It's hard to call it pump & dump now.
BTC's biggest argument is it's a threat to the USD, and a savior for emerging markets. For that reason, BTC will continue to yield up to the right but also correct more harshly than any other asset class. Like I said in a previous post, this correction and perhaps recession that will take place will be quite devastating for BTC, but long-term BTC holders or maximalists will yield the most advantageous.
- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes1y
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
apologies niece not daughter in law....getting old.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever.
It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever.
I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too.
I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid.
When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks.
The new shiny toy is ai.
Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).
People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world.In just the last 5 days BTC has ranged in value from a high of $94,380.26 too a low of $81,157.32.
BTC is the very definition of volatile.
No business can humanly exist selling say a loaf of bread on Monday at one value, and come Friday when they go to reorder items to produce more bread, 10% of the sale $ they took in has evaporated into thin air.
And that's just in 5 days. Real moves.
The only reason 85% of people were on the BTC and crypto "train" was because it was going UP in value. Just like NFT's. Just like Tulips had long before.
Now it's rhetoric and assorted other hype to keep the hopeium alive. Because all who have leveraged into it know the fade is running out of runway.
As people get tired of it, don't see parabolic growth and profits, the shine is wearing off and people will sell and move on to what is current, shiny and with prospects of parabolic growth and profits ie ai.
As people sell BTC value goes down. Because it's value is based on NOTHING, literally. It's based on people holding and buying it.
So as it flatlines as it is, sentiment of it coming down grows as it is, selling takes hold and as it sells value drops reinforcing the downward movement and decisions to sell. And a downward spiral begins.
AMC & GME was little different. People chasing rainbows of massive profits. Than bag holders holding out on hopeium. But as time passes more and more wake up to the reality that the rainbows are long gone and 100% annual returns are fantasy but 50% losses are real.
It's the Gold Rush mentality. or better said, a Pump-n-dump. BTC and crypto is just one with some longer track to it than others given the criminal utility of it all. Great if your an international arms smuggler, not so great for a 50-something Jane/John Doe.
It was fun while it lasted, I'm over it now and onto playing ai. Selling Put's, taking leaps, selling calls, making $ 4-ways on market movements.
And continuing to do Real Estate, good-ole-reliable.
Why waste time on a literal gamble of BTC when it's at bizonkers high prices?
It's called buy low n sell high, not buy high and pray for inhuman additional astronomical highs.
Government promised...... Yeah well they been promising me peace on earth, clean water, clear skies, low tax's and all the other oh-so-good for long as I can remember.
Words hype and hopes.
I operate on facts, math and certainty.
That's very appropriate vol for BTC; VTI and QQQ were 3.5-4% negative in 5d and range quite strong too. Comparatively, that vol for BTC is quite normal. We've seen way bigger vol swings for BTC so not sure that's the point I'd make against it.
BTC vol will tighten once there's more adoption. That's proven given the fact we had significantly more drawdowns and significantly more often when less were invested. Just to give you a vol comparison in the last 10 years Nvidia has had 2 50% drawdowns. There's risk to everything. Given 10 years ago BTC was a fraction of what it's worth now percentage based draw downs are a bit misled given absolute value differential.
BTC adoption has gone institutional, prior it was emerging markets and little retail. It's hard to call it pump & dump now.
BTC's biggest argument is it's a threat to the USD, and a savior for emerging markets. For that reason, BTC will continue to yield up to the right but also correct more harshly than any other asset class. Like I said in a previous post, this correction and perhaps recession that will take place will be quite devastating for BTC, but long-term BTC holders or maximalists will yield the most advantageous.
Your making my point and completely missing it.
BTC is volatile, very volatile. Even as an investment it's volatile.
As a currency, it's arguably the most volatile on earth.
Look at it's value movements vs USD, Euro, hell the Rubble....
This is why the notion of it's adoption in any public utility at scale is just a mirage of a notion.
For years on end it's been the propaganda that as BTC scales it's volatility will lesson. And reality is it's volatility has increased, not lessoned.
5% moves in a 24hr span, if any currency had that happen it would be world headline news.
To put it in terms, the RAND of South Africa, a 2nd/3rd world nation, with substantial turmoil galore, on verge of national collapse, is far less volatile than BTC.
The notion of BTC being any threat to USD is laughable.
It's was a cool sounding catch-phrase for some years but nobody remotely considers it of any threat what so ever anymore.
BTC is NOT untraceable as the FBI has proven with it's various tracings and "stings" around such.
BTC is NOT unhackable as proven by the various BTC "heists" that have come to pass.
BTC will come to be known as the long-con, it will.
Once value due to outflow drops sub $70k, facilitating a flight out dropping to sub $50k, justifying the branding of "over" empowering the mass flight away and price down to sub $40k, $30k, back into leveling in $20k's because that's the utility value of "dark money" in transacting of such.
And as the price declines the blockchain starts collapsing because cost of operating nodes comes into significant losses, and mining loosing it's profit motive.
The entire system is designed to collapse, it is. It requires perpetual increase in scarcity to hold incentive to use and decrease in use instantly reflects in decrease in value, thus empowering more exit, making value drop more, making more flight out, round n round it goes into the ground.
It's a currency designed to embrace a "run on the bank".
This is why and how it gained so much value as it grew. It's a double edged blade, cut's both ways.
Fear has a psychological power of 4X pleasure. Meaning the drop will come powerfully, sharply, and painfully for those hold outs.
January I saw the end on the horizon, hence my total liquidation. I know I am not alone in this.
The last gasps for BTC and crypto is the hopeium that some big volume buyers will emerge. The push for funds has been exhausted, now gov holding crypto reserves looks to be all but reserved.
I predict this is the last months of crypto before the decline get's going with compounding force. The US stock market decline is the catalyst to hasten it from years too months.
I can expect a 2X+ return in NVDA over next 12-18mnths. A 2X return in BTC over next 12-18mnths is all but a fantasy, no catalyst to justify any logical expectation of such. So guess where my $ is going......
- 1yV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
apologies niece not daughter in law....getting old.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever.
It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever.
I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too.
I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid.
When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks.
The new shiny toy is ai.
Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).
People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world.In just the last 5 days BTC has ranged in value from a high of $94,380.26 too a low of $81,157.32.
BTC is the very definition of volatile.
No business can humanly exist selling say a loaf of bread on Monday at one value, and come Friday when they go to reorder items to produce more bread, 10% of the sale $ they took in has evaporated into thin air.
And that's just in 5 days. Real moves.
The only reason 85% of people were on the BTC and crypto "train" was because it was going UP in value. Just like NFT's. Just like Tulips had long before.
Now it's rhetoric and assorted other hype to keep the hopeium alive. Because all who have leveraged into it know the fade is running out of runway.
As people get tired of it, don't see parabolic growth and profits, the shine is wearing off and people will sell and move on to what is current, shiny and with prospects of parabolic growth and profits ie ai.
As people sell BTC value goes down. Because it's value is based on NOTHING, literally. It's based on people holding and buying it.
So as it flatlines as it is, sentiment of it coming down grows as it is, selling takes hold and as it sells value drops reinforcing the downward movement and decisions to sell. And a downward spiral begins.
AMC & GME was little different. People chasing rainbows of massive profits. Than bag holders holding out on hopeium. But as time passes more and more wake up to the reality that the rainbows are long gone and 100% annual returns are fantasy but 50% losses are real.
It's the Gold Rush mentality. or better said, a Pump-n-dump. BTC and crypto is just one with some longer track to it than others given the criminal utility of it all. Great if your an international arms smuggler, not so great for a 50-something Jane/John Doe.
It was fun while it lasted, I'm over it now and onto playing ai. Selling Put's, taking leaps, selling calls, making $ 4-ways on market movements.
And continuing to do Real Estate, good-ole-reliable.
Why waste time on a literal gamble of BTC when it's at bizonkers high prices?
It's called buy low n sell high, not buy high and pray for inhuman additional astronomical highs.
Government promised...... Yeah well they been promising me peace on earth, clean water, clear skies, low tax's and all the other oh-so-good for long as I can remember.
Words hype and hopes.
I operate on facts, math and certainty.
That's very appropriate vol for BTC; VTI and QQQ were 3.5-4% negative in 5d and range quite strong too. Comparatively, that vol for BTC is quite normal. We've seen way bigger vol swings for BTC so not sure that's the point I'd make against it.
BTC vol will tighten once there's more adoption. That's proven given the fact we had significantly more drawdowns and significantly more often when less were invested. Just to give you a vol comparison in the last 10 years Nvidia has had 2 50% drawdowns. There's risk to everything. Given 10 years ago BTC was a fraction of what it's worth now percentage based draw downs are a bit misled given absolute value differential.
BTC adoption has gone institutional, prior it was emerging markets and little retail. It's hard to call it pump & dump now.
BTC's biggest argument is it's a threat to the USD, and a savior for emerging markets. For that reason, BTC will continue to yield up to the right but also correct more harshly than any other asset class. Like I said in a previous post, this correction and perhaps recession that will take place will be quite devastating for BTC, but long-term BTC holders or maximalists will yield the most advantageous.
Your making my point and completely missing it.
BTC is volatile, very volatile. Even as an investment it's volatile.
As a currency, it's arguably the most volatile on earth.
Look at it's value movements vs USD, Euro, hell the Rubble....
This is why the notion of it's adoption in any public utility at scale is just a mirage of a notion.
For years on end it's been the propaganda that as BTC scales it's volatility will lesson. And reality is it's volatility has increased, not lessoned.
5% moves in a 24hr span, if any currency had that happen it would be world headline news.
To put it in terms, the RAND of South Africa, a 2nd/3rd world nation, with substantial turmoil galore, on verge of national collapse, is far less volatile than BTC.
The notion of BTC being any threat to USD is laughable.
It's was a cool sounding catch-phrase for some years but nobody remotely considers it of any threat what so ever anymore.
BTC is NOT untraceable as the FBI has proven with it's various tracings and "stings" around such.
BTC is NOT unhackable as proven by the various BTC "heists" that have come to pass.
BTC will come to be known as the long-con, it will.
Once value due to outflow drops sub $70k, facilitating a flight out dropping to sub $50k, justifying the branding of "over" empowering the mass flight away and price down to sub $40k, $30k, back into leveling in $20k's because that's the utility value of "dark money" in transacting of such.
And as the price declines the blockchain starts collapsing because cost of operating nodes comes into significant losses, and mining loosing it's profit motive.
The entire system is designed to collapse, it is. It requires perpetual increase in scarcity to hold incentive to use and decrease in use instantly reflects in decrease in value, thus empowering more exit, making value drop more, making more flight out, round n round it goes into the ground.
It's a currency designed to embrace a "run on the bank".
This is why and how it gained so much value as it grew. It's a double edged blade, cut's both ways.
Fear has a psychological power of 4X pleasure. Meaning the drop will come powerfully, sharply, and painfully for those hold outs.
January I saw the end on the horizon, hence my total liquidation. I know I am not alone in this.
The last gasps for BTC and crypto is the hopeium that some big volume buyers will emerge. The push for funds has been exhausted, now gov holding crypto reserves looks to be all but reserved.
I predict this is the last months of crypto before the decline get's going with compounding force. The US stock market decline is the catalyst to hasten it from years too months.
I can expect a 2X+ return in NVDA over next 12-18mnths. A 2X return in BTC over next 12-18mnths is all but a fantasy, no catalyst to justify any logical expectation of such. So guess where my $ is going......
No, think you're misunderstanding my points.
The only points we're aligned on are if there is a recession or correction--Bitcoin will be hit the hardest. And if there is a recession or correction, it's a buying opportunity.
Outside of that, we're completely different in how & why it happens. And outside of being a net asset buyer, what to do when it happens.
Never mentioned anything about untraceable. Infact it's on the most transparent system --blockchain. Transparency is a positive.
There has been no heists on Bitcoin. It's been user error based heists and storage based. The lack of understanding is quite obvious among other points you make.
De-dollarization is a tangible, yet a far realization. Thinking crypto is a laughable candidate, you'd be hard pressed to find a better or more viable one. The current vol is not a reason for it not to be, and yes vol has gotten down as adoption has come up. As if it becomes a real candidate, the vol will tighten that's how it happens. Think along the lines of IF this happens THEN this happens. It's IF, THEN like all investing.
I don't think we'll agree on views and we can respectfully have our own so probably won't comment more on the nature of our discussion.
With that said, if you're so certain...short it. Time will tell how that goes. - Investor · Get yourself trained before doing something inadvisable. · Member since 2024 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes1y.
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
apologies niece not daughter in law....getting old.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever.
It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever.
I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too.
I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid.
When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks.
The new shiny toy is ai.
Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).
People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world.In just the last 5 days BTC has ranged in value from a high of $94,380.26 too a low of $81,157.32.
BTC is the very definition of volatile.
No business can humanly exist selling say a loaf of bread on Monday at one value, and come Friday when they go to reorder items to produce more bread, 10% of the sale $ they took in has evaporated into thin air.
And that's just in 5 days. Real moves.
The only reason 85% of people were on the BTC and crypto "train" was because it was going UP in value. Just like NFT's. Just like Tulips had long before.
Now it's rhetoric and assorted other hype to keep the hopeium alive. Because all who have leveraged into it know the fade is running out of runway.
As people get tired of it, don't see parabolic growth and profits, the shine is wearing off and people will sell and move on to what is current, shiny and with prospects of parabolic growth and profits ie ai.
As people sell BTC value goes down. Because it's value is based on NOTHING, literally. It's based on people holding and buying it.
So as it flatlines as it is, sentiment of it coming down grows as it is, selling takes hold and as it sells value drops reinforcing the downward movement and decisions to sell. And a downward spiral begins.
AMC & GME was little different. People chasing rainbows of massive profits. Than bag holders holding out on hopeium. But as time passes more and more wake up to the reality that the rainbows are long gone and 100% annual returns are fantasy but 50% losses are real.
It's the Gold Rush mentality. or better said, a Pump-n-dump. BTC and crypto is just one with some longer track to it than others given the criminal utility of it all. Great if your an international arms smuggler, not so great for a 50-something Jane/John Doe.
It was fun while it lasted, I'm over it now and onto playing ai. Selling Put's, taking leaps, selling calls, making $ 4-ways on market movements.
And continuing to do Real Estate, good-ole-reliable.
Why waste time on a literal gamble of BTC when it's at bizonkers high prices?
It's called buy low n sell high, not buy high and pray for inhuman additional astronomical highs.
Government promised...... Yeah well they been promising me peace on earth, clean water, clear skies, low tax's and all the other oh-so-good for long as I can remember.
Words hype and hopes.
I operate on facts, math and certainty.
That's very appropriate vol for BTC; VTI and QQQ were 3.5-4% negative in 5d and range quite strong too. Comparatively, that vol for BTC is quite normal. We've seen way bigger vol swings for BTC so not sure that's the point I'd make against it.
BTC vol will tighten once there's more adoption. That's proven given the fact we had significantly more drawdowns and significantly more often when less were invested. Just to give you a vol comparison in the last 10 years Nvidia has had 2 50% drawdowns. There's risk to everything. Given 10 years ago BTC was a fraction of what it's worth now percentage based draw downs are a bit misled given absolute value differential.
BTC adoption has gone institutional, prior it was emerging markets and little retail. It's hard to call it pump & dump now.
BTC's biggest argument is it's a threat to the USD, and a savior for emerging markets. For that reason, BTC will continue to yield up to the right but also correct more harshly than any other asset class. Like I said in a previous post, this correction and perhaps recession that will take place will be quite devastating for BTC, but long-term BTC holders or maximalists will yield the most advantageous.
Oops."Recent and significant crypto hacks include the Bybit exchange hack on February 21, 2025, where nearly $1.5 billion worth of ether (ETH) was stolen, and a North Korean hack in March 2025 that stole $1.5 billion in cryptocurrency, making it the largest crypto hack on record according to the FBI.65
North Korean hackers have been increasingly active in the crypto space, stealing approximately $660.5 million across 20 incidents in 2023 and $1.34 billion across 47 incidents in 2024, marking a 102.88% rise in value stolen."
- 1yV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votesI was waiting for this type of response.
Quote from @Ken M.:
.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
apologies niece not daughter in law....getting old.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever.
It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever.
I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too.
I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid.
When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks.
The new shiny toy is ai.
Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).
People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world.In just the last 5 days BTC has ranged in value from a high of $94,380.26 too a low of $81,157.32.
BTC is the very definition of volatile.
No business can humanly exist selling say a loaf of bread on Monday at one value, and come Friday when they go to reorder items to produce more bread, 10% of the sale $ they took in has evaporated into thin air.
And that's just in 5 days. Real moves.
The only reason 85% of people were on the BTC and crypto "train" was because it was going UP in value. Just like NFT's. Just like Tulips had long before.
Now it's rhetoric and assorted other hype to keep the hopeium alive. Because all who have leveraged into it know the fade is running out of runway.
As people get tired of it, don't see parabolic growth and profits, the shine is wearing off and people will sell and move on to what is current, shiny and with prospects of parabolic growth and profits ie ai.
As people sell BTC value goes down. Because it's value is based on NOTHING, literally. It's based on people holding and buying it.
So as it flatlines as it is, sentiment of it coming down grows as it is, selling takes hold and as it sells value drops reinforcing the downward movement and decisions to sell. And a downward spiral begins.
AMC & GME was little different. People chasing rainbows of massive profits. Than bag holders holding out on hopeium. But as time passes more and more wake up to the reality that the rainbows are long gone and 100% annual returns are fantasy but 50% losses are real.
It's the Gold Rush mentality. or better said, a Pump-n-dump. BTC and crypto is just one with some longer track to it than others given the criminal utility of it all. Great if your an international arms smuggler, not so great for a 50-something Jane/John Doe.
It was fun while it lasted, I'm over it now and onto playing ai. Selling Put's, taking leaps, selling calls, making $ 4-ways on market movements.
And continuing to do Real Estate, good-ole-reliable.
Why waste time on a literal gamble of BTC when it's at bizonkers high prices?
It's called buy low n sell high, not buy high and pray for inhuman additional astronomical highs.
Government promised...... Yeah well they been promising me peace on earth, clean water, clear skies, low tax's and all the other oh-so-good for long as I can remember.
Words hype and hopes.
I operate on facts, math and certainty.
That's very appropriate vol for BTC; VTI and QQQ were 3.5-4% negative in 5d and range quite strong too. Comparatively, that vol for BTC is quite normal. We've seen way bigger vol swings for BTC so not sure that's the point I'd make against it.
BTC vol will tighten once there's more adoption. That's proven given the fact we had significantly more drawdowns and significantly more often when less were invested. Just to give you a vol comparison in the last 10 years Nvidia has had 2 50% drawdowns. There's risk to everything. Given 10 years ago BTC was a fraction of what it's worth now percentage based draw downs are a bit misled given absolute value differential.
BTC adoption has gone institutional, prior it was emerging markets and little retail. It's hard to call it pump & dump now.
BTC's biggest argument is it's a threat to the USD, and a savior for emerging markets. For that reason, BTC will continue to yield up to the right but also correct more harshly than any other asset class. Like I said in a previous post, this correction and perhaps recession that will take place will be quite devastating for BTC, but long-term BTC holders or maximalists will yield the most advantageous.
Oops."Recent and significant crypto hacks include the Bybit exchange hack on February 21, 2025, where nearly $1.5 billion worth of ether (ETH) was stolen, and a North Korean hack in March 2025 that stole $1.5 billion in cryptocurrency, making it the largest crypto hack on record according to the FBI.65
North Korean hackers have been increasingly active in the crypto space, stealing approximately $660.5 million across 20 incidents in 2023 and $1.34 billion across 47 incidents in 2024, marking a 102.88% rise in value stolen."
Show me you don't understand anything at all any more clear, Ken.
Bybit didn't hack "Ethereum". They hacked SAFE Wallet. Bybit was too cheap to purchase extra security (measures)--left UI systems as is & not enhanced. So again, it's user error and storage.
In laymen terms, this is like a scammer sending you a text to log in to confirm your AMEX details. You do, and they get access to steal funds. No other security measures. Did your USD get hacked? Or did AMEX get hacked? And are you the vulnerability or is USD?
Unfortunately, retorts like yours show that compete lack of knowledge & understanding. - Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes1y
Quote from @V.G Jason:
I was waiting for this type of response.Quote from @Ken M.:
.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
apologies niece not daughter in law....getting old.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever.
It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever.
I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too.
I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid.
When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks.
The new shiny toy is ai.
Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).
People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world.In just the last 5 days BTC has ranged in value from a high of $94,380.26 too a low of $81,157.32.
BTC is the very definition of volatile.
No business can humanly exist selling say a loaf of bread on Monday at one value, and come Friday when they go to reorder items to produce more bread, 10% of the sale $ they took in has evaporated into thin air.
And that's just in 5 days. Real moves.
The only reason 85% of people were on the BTC and crypto "train" was because it was going UP in value. Just like NFT's. Just like Tulips had long before.
Now it's rhetoric and assorted other hype to keep the hopeium alive. Because all who have leveraged into it know the fade is running out of runway.
As people get tired of it, don't see parabolic growth and profits, the shine is wearing off and people will sell and move on to what is current, shiny and with prospects of parabolic growth and profits ie ai.
As people sell BTC value goes down. Because it's value is based on NOTHING, literally. It's based on people holding and buying it.
So as it flatlines as it is, sentiment of it coming down grows as it is, selling takes hold and as it sells value drops reinforcing the downward movement and decisions to sell. And a downward spiral begins.
AMC & GME was little different. People chasing rainbows of massive profits. Than bag holders holding out on hopeium. But as time passes more and more wake up to the reality that the rainbows are long gone and 100% annual returns are fantasy but 50% losses are real.
It's the Gold Rush mentality. or better said, a Pump-n-dump. BTC and crypto is just one with some longer track to it than others given the criminal utility of it all. Great if your an international arms smuggler, not so great for a 50-something Jane/John Doe.
It was fun while it lasted, I'm over it now and onto playing ai. Selling Put's, taking leaps, selling calls, making $ 4-ways on market movements.
And continuing to do Real Estate, good-ole-reliable.
Why waste time on a literal gamble of BTC when it's at bizonkers high prices?
It's called buy low n sell high, not buy high and pray for inhuman additional astronomical highs.
Government promised...... Yeah well they been promising me peace on earth, clean water, clear skies, low tax's and all the other oh-so-good for long as I can remember.
Words hype and hopes.
I operate on facts, math and certainty.
That's very appropriate vol for BTC; VTI and QQQ were 3.5-4% negative in 5d and range quite strong too. Comparatively, that vol for BTC is quite normal. We've seen way bigger vol swings for BTC so not sure that's the point I'd make against it.
BTC vol will tighten once there's more adoption. That's proven given the fact we had significantly more drawdowns and significantly more often when less were invested. Just to give you a vol comparison in the last 10 years Nvidia has had 2 50% drawdowns. There's risk to everything. Given 10 years ago BTC was a fraction of what it's worth now percentage based draw downs are a bit misled given absolute value differential.
BTC adoption has gone institutional, prior it was emerging markets and little retail. It's hard to call it pump & dump now.
BTC's biggest argument is it's a threat to the USD, and a savior for emerging markets. For that reason, BTC will continue to yield up to the right but also correct more harshly than any other asset class. Like I said in a previous post, this correction and perhaps recession that will take place will be quite devastating for BTC, but long-term BTC holders or maximalists will yield the most advantageous.
Oops."Recent and significant crypto hacks include the Bybit exchange hack on February 21, 2025, where nearly $1.5 billion worth of ether (ETH) was stolen, and a North Korean hack in March 2025 that stole $1.5 billion in cryptocurrency, making it the largest crypto hack on record according to the FBI.65
North Korean hackers have been increasingly active in the crypto space, stealing approximately $660.5 million across 20 incidents in 2023 and $1.34 billion across 47 incidents in 2024, marking a 102.88% rise in value stolen."
Show me you don't understand anything at all any more clear, Ken.
Bybit didn't hack "Ethereum". They hacked SAFE Wallet. Bybit was too cheap to purchase extra security (measures)--left UI systems as is & not enhanced. So again, it's user error and storage.
In laymen terms, this is like a scammer sending you a text to log in to confirm your AMEX details. You do, and they get access to steal funds. No other security measures. Did your USD get hacked? Or did AMEX get hacked? And are you the vulnerability or is USD?
Unfortunately, retorts like yours show that compete lack of knowledge & understanding.This is what is coined "SPIN".
Look it's simple.
For long crypto sold itself as SAFE, secure, even claiming for many years to be SAFER than current in use systems.
Crypto even slogan'd on anonymity.
If you have $ at a bank, and bank calls saying "sorry half your moneys gone, it was stolen" do you care HOW the thieves stole it? Does it matter HOW it was done? No, what matters is you thought it was safe, it was stolen, so now your sense of safety and security is GONE.
How NOT safe is crypto? I can sum it up in 1 word: WILLOW....
Every masters degree/ Phd level data scientist and computer engineer I know has exited crypto since the confirmation with WILLOW. ALL OF THEM, 100%.
For those who don't know or understand, WILLOW is the breakthrough in computing that is taking ai effectively from the era of the horse & buggy straight to nuclear propulsion.
And that analogy is even far too weak a comparison. It's more like from caveman too spaceman. Yeah, it's THAT big a leap.
So take an ai capable of running every cryptographic permutation in existence, in an hour. It can solve mathematical problems that would take conventional super computers billions upon billions of years, and do it in seconds.
Effectively, there is no such thing as data security anymore. All codes, all that jazz, DONE. All it requires is one with hardware access and the desire to implement it for such.
In other words, N.Korea, Iran, RU, etc etc etc.....
You will see crypto heists parabolically increase THIS YEAR, head my words, this is inevitable.
- Investor · Get yourself trained before doing something inadvisable. · Member since 2024 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes1yIt doesn't matter who stole the money, it's stolen, gone, missing, kapupt. Interesting that you gloss over that.
Quote from @V.G Jason:
I was waiting for this type of response.Quote from @Ken M.:
.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
apologies niece not daughter in law....getting old.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever.
It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever.
I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too.
I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid.
When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks.
The new shiny toy is ai.
Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).
People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world.In just the last 5 days BTC has ranged in value from a high of $94,380.26 too a low of $81,157.32.
BTC is the very definition of volatile.
No business can humanly exist selling say a loaf of bread on Monday at one value, and come Friday when they go to reorder items to produce more bread, 10% of the sale $ they took in has evaporated into thin air.
And that's just in 5 days. Real moves.
The only reason 85% of people were on the BTC and crypto "train" was because it was going UP in value. Just like NFT's. Just like Tulips had long before.
Now it's rhetoric and assorted other hype to keep the hopeium alive. Because all who have leveraged into it know the fade is running out of runway.
As people get tired of it, don't see parabolic growth and profits, the shine is wearing off and people will sell and move on to what is current, shiny and with prospects of parabolic growth and profits ie ai.
As people sell BTC value goes down. Because it's value is based on NOTHING, literally. It's based on people holding and buying it.
So as it flatlines as it is, sentiment of it coming down grows as it is, selling takes hold and as it sells value drops reinforcing the downward movement and decisions to sell. And a downward spiral begins.
AMC & GME was little different. People chasing rainbows of massive profits. Than bag holders holding out on hopeium. But as time passes more and more wake up to the reality that the rainbows are long gone and 100% annual returns are fantasy but 50% losses are real.
It's the Gold Rush mentality. or better said, a Pump-n-dump. BTC and crypto is just one with some longer track to it than others given the criminal utility of it all. Great if your an international arms smuggler, not so great for a 50-something Jane/John Doe.
It was fun while it lasted, I'm over it now and onto playing ai. Selling Put's, taking leaps, selling calls, making $ 4-ways on market movements.
And continuing to do Real Estate, good-ole-reliable.
Why waste time on a literal gamble of BTC when it's at bizonkers high prices?
It's called buy low n sell high, not buy high and pray for inhuman additional astronomical highs.
Government promised...... Yeah well they been promising me peace on earth, clean water, clear skies, low tax's and all the other oh-so-good for long as I can remember.
Words hype and hopes.
I operate on facts, math and certainty.
That's very appropriate vol for BTC; VTI and QQQ were 3.5-4% negative in 5d and range quite strong too. Comparatively, that vol for BTC is quite normal. We've seen way bigger vol swings for BTC so not sure that's the point I'd make against it.
BTC vol will tighten once there's more adoption. That's proven given the fact we had significantly more drawdowns and significantly more often when less were invested. Just to give you a vol comparison in the last 10 years Nvidia has had 2 50% drawdowns. There's risk to everything. Given 10 years ago BTC was a fraction of what it's worth now percentage based draw downs are a bit misled given absolute value differential.
BTC adoption has gone institutional, prior it was emerging markets and little retail. It's hard to call it pump & dump now.
BTC's biggest argument is it's a threat to the USD, and a savior for emerging markets. For that reason, BTC will continue to yield up to the right but also correct more harshly than any other asset class. Like I said in a previous post, this correction and perhaps recession that will take place will be quite devastating for BTC, but long-term BTC holders or maximalists will yield the most advantageous.
Oops."Recent and significant crypto hacks include the Bybit exchange hack on February 21, 2025, where nearly $1.5 billion worth of ether (ETH) was stolen, and a North Korean hack in March 2025 that stole $1.5 billion in cryptocurrency, making it the largest crypto hack on record according to the FBI.65
North Korean hackers have been increasingly active in the crypto space, stealing approximately $660.5 million across 20 incidents in 2023 and $1.34 billion across 47 incidents in 2024, marking a 102.88% rise in value stolen."
Show me you don't understand anything at all any more clear, Ken.
Bybit didn't hack "Ethereum". They hacked SAFE Wallet. Bybit was too cheap to purchase extra security (measures)--left UI systems as is & not enhanced. So again, it's user error and storage.
In laymen terms, this is like a scammer sending you a text to log in to confirm your AMEX details. You do, and they get access to steal funds. No other security measures. Did your USD get hacked? Or did AMEX get hacked? And are you the vulnerability or is USD?
Unfortunately, retorts like yours show that compete lack of knowledge & understanding. - 1yV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @Ken M.:
It doesn't matter who stole the money, it's stolen, gone, missing, kapupt. Interesting that you gloss over that.Quote from @V.G Jason:
I was waiting for this type of response.Quote from @Ken M.:
.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
apologies niece not daughter in law....getting old.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever.
It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever.
I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too.
I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid.
When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks.
The new shiny toy is ai.
Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).
People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world.In just the last 5 days BTC has ranged in value from a high of $94,380.26 too a low of $81,157.32.
BTC is the very definition of volatile.
No business can humanly exist selling say a loaf of bread on Monday at one value, and come Friday when they go to reorder items to produce more bread, 10% of the sale $ they took in has evaporated into thin air.
And that's just in 5 days. Real moves.
The only reason 85% of people were on the BTC and crypto "train" was because it was going UP in value. Just like NFT's. Just like Tulips had long before.
Now it's rhetoric and assorted other hype to keep the hopeium alive. Because all who have leveraged into it know the fade is running out of runway.
As people get tired of it, don't see parabolic growth and profits, the shine is wearing off and people will sell and move on to what is current, shiny and with prospects of parabolic growth and profits ie ai.
As people sell BTC value goes down. Because it's value is based on NOTHING, literally. It's based on people holding and buying it.
So as it flatlines as it is, sentiment of it coming down grows as it is, selling takes hold and as it sells value drops reinforcing the downward movement and decisions to sell. And a downward spiral begins.
AMC & GME was little different. People chasing rainbows of massive profits. Than bag holders holding out on hopeium. But as time passes more and more wake up to the reality that the rainbows are long gone and 100% annual returns are fantasy but 50% losses are real.
It's the Gold Rush mentality. or better said, a Pump-n-dump. BTC and crypto is just one with some longer track to it than others given the criminal utility of it all. Great if your an international arms smuggler, not so great for a 50-something Jane/John Doe.
It was fun while it lasted, I'm over it now and onto playing ai. Selling Put's, taking leaps, selling calls, making $ 4-ways on market movements.
And continuing to do Real Estate, good-ole-reliable.
Why waste time on a literal gamble of BTC when it's at bizonkers high prices?
It's called buy low n sell high, not buy high and pray for inhuman additional astronomical highs.
Government promised...... Yeah well they been promising me peace on earth, clean water, clear skies, low tax's and all the other oh-so-good for long as I can remember.
Words hype and hopes.
I operate on facts, math and certainty.
That's very appropriate vol for BTC; VTI and QQQ were 3.5-4% negative in 5d and range quite strong too. Comparatively, that vol for BTC is quite normal. We've seen way bigger vol swings for BTC so not sure that's the point I'd make against it.
BTC vol will tighten once there's more adoption. That's proven given the fact we had significantly more drawdowns and significantly more often when less were invested. Just to give you a vol comparison in the last 10 years Nvidia has had 2 50% drawdowns. There's risk to everything. Given 10 years ago BTC was a fraction of what it's worth now percentage based draw downs are a bit misled given absolute value differential.
BTC adoption has gone institutional, prior it was emerging markets and little retail. It's hard to call it pump & dump now.
BTC's biggest argument is it's a threat to the USD, and a savior for emerging markets. For that reason, BTC will continue to yield up to the right but also correct more harshly than any other asset class. Like I said in a previous post, this correction and perhaps recession that will take place will be quite devastating for BTC, but long-term BTC holders or maximalists will yield the most advantageous.
Oops."Recent and significant crypto hacks include the Bybit exchange hack on February 21, 2025, where nearly $1.5 billion worth of ether (ETH) was stolen, and a North Korean hack in March 2025 that stole $1.5 billion in cryptocurrency, making it the largest crypto hack on record according to the FBI.65
North Korean hackers have been increasingly active in the crypto space, stealing approximately $660.5 million across 20 incidents in 2023 and $1.34 billion across 47 incidents in 2024, marking a 102.88% rise in value stolen."
Show me you don't understand anything at all any more clear, Ken.
Bybit didn't hack "Ethereum". They hacked SAFE Wallet. Bybit was too cheap to purchase extra security (measures)--left UI systems as is & not enhanced. So again, it's user error and storage.
In laymen terms, this is like a scammer sending you a text to log in to confirm your AMEX details. You do, and they get access to steal funds. No other security measures. Did your USD get hacked? Or did AMEX get hacked? And are you the vulnerability or is USD?
Unfortunately, retorts like yours show that compete lack of knowledge & understanding.Let's try this another way because you have reading comprehension issues.
No **** the money is gone. The question is why? User error & storage, like I've mentioned several times. If my AMEX got compromised is it the USD's fault?
Money is gone, explain that.
The answer is no, it's my fault and my lack/AMEX lack of security protocols. This isn't rocket science, I am sure you're capable of understanding this.
And before you harp on AMEX, given your lack of understanding this is globally an issue with all providers. Zelle, venmo, paypal more domestically, that money isn't coming back. So again, underlying question is my USD at fault? Or is it me and the provider at fault?
- 1yV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
I was waiting for this type of response.Quote from @Ken M.:
.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
apologies niece not daughter in law....getting old.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever.
It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever.
I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too.
I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid.
When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks.
The new shiny toy is ai.
Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).
People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world.In just the last 5 days BTC has ranged in value from a high of $94,380.26 too a low of $81,157.32.
BTC is the very definition of volatile.
No business can humanly exist selling say a loaf of bread on Monday at one value, and come Friday when they go to reorder items to produce more bread, 10% of the sale $ they took in has evaporated into thin air.
And that's just in 5 days. Real moves.
The only reason 85% of people were on the BTC and crypto "train" was because it was going UP in value. Just like NFT's. Just like Tulips had long before.
Now it's rhetoric and assorted other hype to keep the hopeium alive. Because all who have leveraged into it know the fade is running out of runway.
As people get tired of it, don't see parabolic growth and profits, the shine is wearing off and people will sell and move on to what is current, shiny and with prospects of parabolic growth and profits ie ai.
As people sell BTC value goes down. Because it's value is based on NOTHING, literally. It's based on people holding and buying it.
So as it flatlines as it is, sentiment of it coming down grows as it is, selling takes hold and as it sells value drops reinforcing the downward movement and decisions to sell. And a downward spiral begins.
AMC & GME was little different. People chasing rainbows of massive profits. Than bag holders holding out on hopeium. But as time passes more and more wake up to the reality that the rainbows are long gone and 100% annual returns are fantasy but 50% losses are real.
It's the Gold Rush mentality. or better said, a Pump-n-dump. BTC and crypto is just one with some longer track to it than others given the criminal utility of it all. Great if your an international arms smuggler, not so great for a 50-something Jane/John Doe.
It was fun while it lasted, I'm over it now and onto playing ai. Selling Put's, taking leaps, selling calls, making $ 4-ways on market movements.
And continuing to do Real Estate, good-ole-reliable.
Why waste time on a literal gamble of BTC when it's at bizonkers high prices?
It's called buy low n sell high, not buy high and pray for inhuman additional astronomical highs.
Government promised...... Yeah well they been promising me peace on earth, clean water, clear skies, low tax's and all the other oh-so-good for long as I can remember.
Words hype and hopes.
I operate on facts, math and certainty.
That's very appropriate vol for BTC; VTI and QQQ were 3.5-4% negative in 5d and range quite strong too. Comparatively, that vol for BTC is quite normal. We've seen way bigger vol swings for BTC so not sure that's the point I'd make against it.
BTC vol will tighten once there's more adoption. That's proven given the fact we had significantly more drawdowns and significantly more often when less were invested. Just to give you a vol comparison in the last 10 years Nvidia has had 2 50% drawdowns. There's risk to everything. Given 10 years ago BTC was a fraction of what it's worth now percentage based draw downs are a bit misled given absolute value differential.
BTC adoption has gone institutional, prior it was emerging markets and little retail. It's hard to call it pump & dump now.
BTC's biggest argument is it's a threat to the USD, and a savior for emerging markets. For that reason, BTC will continue to yield up to the right but also correct more harshly than any other asset class. Like I said in a previous post, this correction and perhaps recession that will take place will be quite devastating for BTC, but long-term BTC holders or maximalists will yield the most advantageous.
Oops."Recent and significant crypto hacks include the Bybit exchange hack on February 21, 2025, where nearly $1.5 billion worth of ether (ETH) was stolen, and a North Korean hack in March 2025 that stole $1.5 billion in cryptocurrency, making it the largest crypto hack on record according to the FBI.65
North Korean hackers have been increasingly active in the crypto space, stealing approximately $660.5 million across 20 incidents in 2023 and $1.34 billion across 47 incidents in 2024, marking a 102.88% rise in value stolen."
Show me you don't understand anything at all any more clear, Ken.
Bybit didn't hack "Ethereum". They hacked SAFE Wallet. Bybit was too cheap to purchase extra security (measures)--left UI systems as is & not enhanced. So again, it's user error and storage.
In laymen terms, this is like a scammer sending you a text to log in to confirm your AMEX details. You do, and they get access to steal funds. No other security measures. Did your USD get hacked? Or did AMEX get hacked? And are you the vulnerability or is USD?
Unfortunately, retorts like yours show that compete lack of knowledge & understanding.This is what is coined "SPIN".
Look it's simple.
For long crypto sold itself as SAFE, secure, even claiming for many years to be SAFER than current in use systems.
Crypto even slogan'd on anonymity.
If you have $ at a bank, and bank calls saying "sorry half your moneys gone, it was stolen" do you care HOW the thieves stole it? Does it matter HOW it was done? No, what matters is you thought it was safe, it was stolen, so now your sense of safety and security is GONE.
How NOT safe is crypto? I can sum it up in 1 word: WILLOW....
Every masters degree/ Phd level data scientist and computer engineer I know has exited crypto since the confirmation with WILLOW. ALL OF THEM, 100%.
For those who don't know or understand, WILLOW is the breakthrough in computing that is taking ai effectively from the era of the horse & buggy straight to nuclear propulsion.
And that analogy is even far too weak a comparison. It's more like from caveman too spaceman. Yeah, it's THAT big a leap.
So take an ai capable of running every cryptographic permutation in existence, in an hour. It can solve mathematical problems that would take conventional super computers billions upon billions of years, and do it in seconds.
Effectively, there is no such thing as data security anymore. All codes, all that jazz, DONE. All it requires is one with hardware access and the desire to implement it for such.
In other words, N.Korea, Iran, RU, etc etc etc.....
You will see crypto heists parabolically increase THIS YEAR, head my words, this is inevitable.
1) Bybit hack had nothing to do with QC. 100% to do with security. There's no spin here, if you're saying I am spinning it in a different like point #2 then sure but I never did that. Nor did I ever subscribe to it.
2) Don't care what crypto "slogan'd" itself for. I just take it for what it is. Again, I don't parrot and form my own thesis. If someone thought they'd be anonymous, they needed to verify that then engage in illegal trades because someone told them it was anonymous. You'd trust your drug dealer to tell you how to operate? Give me a break.
3) Willow is google's QC chip. Go get long GOOGL or long quantum ETFs. It is not inversely related to BTC and Blockchain's health. FYI there's more of a threat to Willow than there is to Nvidia Blackwell on the horizon-- not advice just a note.Willow is a weak, kind of amateur answer to why BTC will fail. As this has been a material sight on the horizon-- notice I said sight not obstacle--for some time as well as some other QCs. Willow is also nowhere near a threat to cryptography; Google will admit that.
Anyone at the institutional level has underwrote this risk and has not found it tangible. Anyone at the institutional level that's against BTC has bet on this and realized it's a quite a way from any recognition or realization. I don't know one that hasn't that we've conversed with, along with other Chinese chips like Zucho or distantly down Majorana among others.
For the people that actually are in the know with institutions that are heavily against BTC and heavily PRO the easiest way for me to summarize the threat of quantum computing is that it's way easier to develop resistant forks on the blockchain than to get QC scalable.
That's the general consensus among some of the real smart money pro & anti BTC. There's one reputationally aggressive fund, if not the most aggressive, that's tried to up the ante in QC to create this as they believe it's a threat to USD-- I know you don't-- that even admits it's a far larger reach than the solution for the blockchain fixing itself via latency, soft forks, etc.
You do realize if QC becomes scalable and defeats any fork attempt or latency attempt to a blockchain, then all digital security is at risk. A lazy answer for sure, but definitely a point to note. It means your communications, local bank, etc., all at risk.
Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure.
Another retribute against QC against blockchain is there's PQC(post quantum cryptography) & QSC(quantum-safe-cryptography) which is already advancing faster than QC and faster than your local massive banks at creating resistance to their own security. And what happens if more adoption appears at the BTC level? Then, you'll see increased efforts of penetrating it but also saving it.
Again-- IF, THEN.
- Investor · Get yourself trained before doing something inadvisable. · Member since 2024 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes1yI guess you don't understand banking, but that's your problem, not mine.
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Ken M.:
It doesn't matter who stole the money, it's stolen, gone, missing, kapupt. Interesting that you gloss over that.Quote from @V.G Jason:
I was waiting for this type of response.Quote from @Ken M.:
.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
apologies niece not daughter in law....getting old.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever.
It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever.
I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too.
I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid.
When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks.
The new shiny toy is ai.
Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).
People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world.In just the last 5 days BTC has ranged in value from a high of $94,380.26 too a low of $81,157.32.
BTC is the very definition of volatile.
No business can humanly exist selling say a loaf of bread on Monday at one value, and come Friday when they go to reorder items to produce more bread, 10% of the sale $ they took in has evaporated into thin air.
And that's just in 5 days. Real moves.
The only reason 85% of people were on the BTC and crypto "train" was because it was going UP in value. Just like NFT's. Just like Tulips had long before.
Now it's rhetoric and assorted other hype to keep the hopeium alive. Because all who have leveraged into it know the fade is running out of runway.
As people get tired of it, don't see parabolic growth and profits, the shine is wearing off and people will sell and move on to what is current, shiny and with prospects of parabolic growth and profits ie ai.
As people sell BTC value goes down. Because it's value is based on NOTHING, literally. It's based on people holding and buying it.
So as it flatlines as it is, sentiment of it coming down grows as it is, selling takes hold and as it sells value drops reinforcing the downward movement and decisions to sell. And a downward spiral begins.
AMC & GME was little different. People chasing rainbows of massive profits. Than bag holders holding out on hopeium. But as time passes more and more wake up to the reality that the rainbows are long gone and 100% annual returns are fantasy but 50% losses are real.
It's the Gold Rush mentality. or better said, a Pump-n-dump. BTC and crypto is just one with some longer track to it than others given the criminal utility of it all. Great if your an international arms smuggler, not so great for a 50-something Jane/John Doe.
It was fun while it lasted, I'm over it now and onto playing ai. Selling Put's, taking leaps, selling calls, making $ 4-ways on market movements.
And continuing to do Real Estate, good-ole-reliable.
Why waste time on a literal gamble of BTC when it's at bizonkers high prices?
It's called buy low n sell high, not buy high and pray for inhuman additional astronomical highs.
Government promised...... Yeah well they been promising me peace on earth, clean water, clear skies, low tax's and all the other oh-so-good for long as I can remember.
Words hype and hopes.
I operate on facts, math and certainty.
That's very appropriate vol for BTC; VTI and QQQ were 3.5-4% negative in 5d and range quite strong too. Comparatively, that vol for BTC is quite normal. We've seen way bigger vol swings for BTC so not sure that's the point I'd make against it.
BTC vol will tighten once there's more adoption. That's proven given the fact we had significantly more drawdowns and significantly more often when less were invested. Just to give you a vol comparison in the last 10 years Nvidia has had 2 50% drawdowns. There's risk to everything. Given 10 years ago BTC was a fraction of what it's worth now percentage based draw downs are a bit misled given absolute value differential.
BTC adoption has gone institutional, prior it was emerging markets and little retail. It's hard to call it pump & dump now.
BTC's biggest argument is it's a threat to the USD, and a savior for emerging markets. For that reason, BTC will continue to yield up to the right but also correct more harshly than any other asset class. Like I said in a previous post, this correction and perhaps recession that will take place will be quite devastating for BTC, but long-term BTC holders or maximalists will yield the most advantageous.
Oops."Recent and significant crypto hacks include the Bybit exchange hack on February 21, 2025, where nearly $1.5 billion worth of ether (ETH) was stolen, and a North Korean hack in March 2025 that stole $1.5 billion in cryptocurrency, making it the largest crypto hack on record according to the FBI.65
North Korean hackers have been increasingly active in the crypto space, stealing approximately $660.5 million across 20 incidents in 2023 and $1.34 billion across 47 incidents in 2024, marking a 102.88% rise in value stolen."
Show me you don't understand anything at all any more clear, Ken.
Bybit didn't hack "Ethereum". They hacked SAFE Wallet. Bybit was too cheap to purchase extra security (measures)--left UI systems as is & not enhanced. So again, it's user error and storage.
In laymen terms, this is like a scammer sending you a text to log in to confirm your AMEX details. You do, and they get access to steal funds. No other security measures. Did your USD get hacked? Or did AMEX get hacked? And are you the vulnerability or is USD?
Unfortunately, retorts like yours show that compete lack of knowledge & understanding.Let's try this another way because you have reading comprehension issues.
No **** the money is gone. The question is why? User error & storage, like I've mentioned several times. If my AMEX got compromised is it the USD's fault?
Money is gone, explain that.
The answer is no, it's my fault and my lack/AMEX lack of security protocols. This isn't rocket science, I am sure you're capable of understanding this.
And before you harp on AMEX, given your lack of understanding this is globally an issue with all providers. Zelle, venmo, paypal more domestically, that money isn't coming back. So again, underlying question is my USD at fault? Or is it me and the provider at fault?
if someone hacks my bank account and steals my money, the bank takes the loss, not me. The bank makes me whole. If not, the regulators shut them down.
If my crypto gets hacked, it doesn't matter who hacks it, it's gone. There is no one to make me whole and crypto won't be shut down. Totally different. There is no one to turn to if crypto goes bad. And it goes bad plenty. - 1yV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @Ken M.:
I guess you don't understand banking, but that's your problem, not mine.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Ken M.:
It doesn't matter who stole the money, it's stolen, gone, missing, kapupt. Interesting that you gloss over that.Quote from @V.G Jason:
I was waiting for this type of response.Quote from @Ken M.:
.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
apologies niece not daughter in law....getting old.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever.
It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever.
I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too.
I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid.
When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks.
The new shiny toy is ai.
Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).
People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world.In just the last 5 days BTC has ranged in value from a high of $94,380.26 too a low of $81,157.32.
BTC is the very definition of volatile.
No business can humanly exist selling say a loaf of bread on Monday at one value, and come Friday when they go to reorder items to produce more bread, 10% of the sale $ they took in has evaporated into thin air.
And that's just in 5 days. Real moves.
The only reason 85% of people were on the BTC and crypto "train" was because it was going UP in value. Just like NFT's. Just like Tulips had long before.
Now it's rhetoric and assorted other hype to keep the hopeium alive. Because all who have leveraged into it know the fade is running out of runway.
As people get tired of it, don't see parabolic growth and profits, the shine is wearing off and people will sell and move on to what is current, shiny and with prospects of parabolic growth and profits ie ai.
As people sell BTC value goes down. Because it's value is based on NOTHING, literally. It's based on people holding and buying it.
So as it flatlines as it is, sentiment of it coming down grows as it is, selling takes hold and as it sells value drops reinforcing the downward movement and decisions to sell. And a downward spiral begins.
AMC & GME was little different. People chasing rainbows of massive profits. Than bag holders holding out on hopeium. But as time passes more and more wake up to the reality that the rainbows are long gone and 100% annual returns are fantasy but 50% losses are real.
It's the Gold Rush mentality. or better said, a Pump-n-dump. BTC and crypto is just one with some longer track to it than others given the criminal utility of it all. Great if your an international arms smuggler, not so great for a 50-something Jane/John Doe.
It was fun while it lasted, I'm over it now and onto playing ai. Selling Put's, taking leaps, selling calls, making $ 4-ways on market movements.
And continuing to do Real Estate, good-ole-reliable.
Why waste time on a literal gamble of BTC when it's at bizonkers high prices?
It's called buy low n sell high, not buy high and pray for inhuman additional astronomical highs.
Government promised...... Yeah well they been promising me peace on earth, clean water, clear skies, low tax's and all the other oh-so-good for long as I can remember.
Words hype and hopes.
I operate on facts, math and certainty.
That's very appropriate vol for BTC; VTI and QQQ were 3.5-4% negative in 5d and range quite strong too. Comparatively, that vol for BTC is quite normal. We've seen way bigger vol swings for BTC so not sure that's the point I'd make against it.
BTC vol will tighten once there's more adoption. That's proven given the fact we had significantly more drawdowns and significantly more often when less were invested. Just to give you a vol comparison in the last 10 years Nvidia has had 2 50% drawdowns. There's risk to everything. Given 10 years ago BTC was a fraction of what it's worth now percentage based draw downs are a bit misled given absolute value differential.
BTC adoption has gone institutional, prior it was emerging markets and little retail. It's hard to call it pump & dump now.
BTC's biggest argument is it's a threat to the USD, and a savior for emerging markets. For that reason, BTC will continue to yield up to the right but also correct more harshly than any other asset class. Like I said in a previous post, this correction and perhaps recession that will take place will be quite devastating for BTC, but long-term BTC holders or maximalists will yield the most advantageous.
Oops."Recent and significant crypto hacks include the Bybit exchange hack on February 21, 2025, where nearly $1.5 billion worth of ether (ETH) was stolen, and a North Korean hack in March 2025 that stole $1.5 billion in cryptocurrency, making it the largest crypto hack on record according to the FBI.65
North Korean hackers have been increasingly active in the crypto space, stealing approximately $660.5 million across 20 incidents in 2023 and $1.34 billion across 47 incidents in 2024, marking a 102.88% rise in value stolen."
Show me you don't understand anything at all any more clear, Ken.
Bybit didn't hack "Ethereum". They hacked SAFE Wallet. Bybit was too cheap to purchase extra security (measures)--left UI systems as is & not enhanced. So again, it's user error and storage.
In laymen terms, this is like a scammer sending you a text to log in to confirm your AMEX details. You do, and they get access to steal funds. No other security measures. Did your USD get hacked? Or did AMEX get hacked? And are you the vulnerability or is USD?
Unfortunately, retorts like yours show that compete lack of knowledge & understanding.Let's try this another way because you have reading comprehension issues.
No **** the money is gone. The question is why? User error & storage, like I've mentioned several times. If my AMEX got compromised is it the USD's fault?
Money is gone, explain that.
The answer is no, it's my fault and my lack/AMEX lack of security protocols. This isn't rocket science, I am sure you're capable of understanding this.
And before you harp on AMEX, given your lack of understanding this is globally an issue with all providers. Zelle, venmo, paypal more domestically, that money isn't coming back. So again, underlying question is my USD at fault? Or is it me and the provider at fault?
if someone hacks my bank account and steals my money, the bank takes the loss, not me. The bank makes me whole. If not, the regulators shut them down.
If my crypto gets hacked, it doesn't matter who hacks it, it's gone. There is no one to make me whole and crypto won't be shut down. Totally different. There is no one to turn to if crypto goes bad. And it goes bad plenty.Banks do not refund scams, they refund fraud.
Big difference.
You're responsible for the scam. They're responsible for fraud.In Bybits case, they're SAFE wallet got scammed via security mishaps. Ethereum did not behave like a scam, nor like a fraud. Do you understand the difference?
As for James's point about heists coming more active, no doubt. Anything that becomes more valuable will get that attention. It doesn't mean the underlying investment is a fraud, just means your process needs to be tight to secure them. Huge difference.
- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes1y
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
I was waiting for this type of response.Quote from @Ken M.:
.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
apologies niece not daughter in law....getting old.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever.
It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever.
I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too.
I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid.
When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks.
The new shiny toy is ai.
Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).
People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world.In just the last 5 days BTC has ranged in value from a high of $94,380.26 too a low of $81,157.32.
BTC is the very definition of volatile.
No business can humanly exist selling say a loaf of bread on Monday at one value, and come Friday when they go to reorder items to produce more bread, 10% of the sale $ they took in has evaporated into thin air.
And that's just in 5 days. Real moves.
The only reason 85% of people were on the BTC and crypto "train" was because it was going UP in value. Just like NFT's. Just like Tulips had long before.
Now it's rhetoric and assorted other hype to keep the hopeium alive. Because all who have leveraged into it know the fade is running out of runway.
As people get tired of it, don't see parabolic growth and profits, the shine is wearing off and people will sell and move on to what is current, shiny and with prospects of parabolic growth and profits ie ai.
As people sell BTC value goes down. Because it's value is based on NOTHING, literally. It's based on people holding and buying it.
So as it flatlines as it is, sentiment of it coming down grows as it is, selling takes hold and as it sells value drops reinforcing the downward movement and decisions to sell. And a downward spiral begins.
AMC & GME was little different. People chasing rainbows of massive profits. Than bag holders holding out on hopeium. But as time passes more and more wake up to the reality that the rainbows are long gone and 100% annual returns are fantasy but 50% losses are real.
It's the Gold Rush mentality. or better said, a Pump-n-dump. BTC and crypto is just one with some longer track to it than others given the criminal utility of it all. Great if your an international arms smuggler, not so great for a 50-something Jane/John Doe.
It was fun while it lasted, I'm over it now and onto playing ai. Selling Put's, taking leaps, selling calls, making $ 4-ways on market movements.
And continuing to do Real Estate, good-ole-reliable.
Why waste time on a literal gamble of BTC when it's at bizonkers high prices?
It's called buy low n sell high, not buy high and pray for inhuman additional astronomical highs.
Government promised...... Yeah well they been promising me peace on earth, clean water, clear skies, low tax's and all the other oh-so-good for long as I can remember.
Words hype and hopes.
I operate on facts, math and certainty.
That's very appropriate vol for BTC; VTI and QQQ were 3.5-4% negative in 5d and range quite strong too. Comparatively, that vol for BTC is quite normal. We've seen way bigger vol swings for BTC so not sure that's the point I'd make against it.
BTC vol will tighten once there's more adoption. That's proven given the fact we had significantly more drawdowns and significantly more often when less were invested. Just to give you a vol comparison in the last 10 years Nvidia has had 2 50% drawdowns. There's risk to everything. Given 10 years ago BTC was a fraction of what it's worth now percentage based draw downs are a bit misled given absolute value differential.
BTC adoption has gone institutional, prior it was emerging markets and little retail. It's hard to call it pump & dump now.
BTC's biggest argument is it's a threat to the USD, and a savior for emerging markets. For that reason, BTC will continue to yield up to the right but also correct more harshly than any other asset class. Like I said in a previous post, this correction and perhaps recession that will take place will be quite devastating for BTC, but long-term BTC holders or maximalists will yield the most advantageous.
Oops."Recent and significant crypto hacks include the Bybit exchange hack on February 21, 2025, where nearly $1.5 billion worth of ether (ETH) was stolen, and a North Korean hack in March 2025 that stole $1.5 billion in cryptocurrency, making it the largest crypto hack on record according to the FBI.65
North Korean hackers have been increasingly active in the crypto space, stealing approximately $660.5 million across 20 incidents in 2023 and $1.34 billion across 47 incidents in 2024, marking a 102.88% rise in value stolen."
Show me you don't understand anything at all any more clear, Ken.
Bybit didn't hack "Ethereum". They hacked SAFE Wallet. Bybit was too cheap to purchase extra security (measures)--left UI systems as is & not enhanced. So again, it's user error and storage.
In laymen terms, this is like a scammer sending you a text to log in to confirm your AMEX details. You do, and they get access to steal funds. No other security measures. Did your USD get hacked? Or did AMEX get hacked? And are you the vulnerability or is USD?
Unfortunately, retorts like yours show that compete lack of knowledge & understanding.This is what is coined "SPIN".
Look it's simple.
For long crypto sold itself as SAFE, secure, even claiming for many years to be SAFER than current in use systems.
Crypto even slogan'd on anonymity.
If you have $ at a bank, and bank calls saying "sorry half your moneys gone, it was stolen" do you care HOW the thieves stole it? Does it matter HOW it was done? No, what matters is you thought it was safe, it was stolen, so now your sense of safety and security is GONE.
How NOT safe is crypto? I can sum it up in 1 word: WILLOW....
Every masters degree/ Phd level data scientist and computer engineer I know has exited crypto since the confirmation with WILLOW. ALL OF THEM, 100%.
For those who don't know or understand, WILLOW is the breakthrough in computing that is taking ai effectively from the era of the horse & buggy straight to nuclear propulsion.
And that analogy is even far too weak a comparison. It's more like from caveman too spaceman. Yeah, it's THAT big a leap.
So take an ai capable of running every cryptographic permutation in existence, in an hour. It can solve mathematical problems that would take conventional super computers billions upon billions of years, and do it in seconds.
Effectively, there is no such thing as data security anymore. All codes, all that jazz, DONE. All it requires is one with hardware access and the desire to implement it for such.
In other words, N.Korea, Iran, RU, etc etc etc.....
You will see crypto heists parabolically increase THIS YEAR, head my words, this is inevitable.
1) Bybit hack had nothing to do with QC. 100% to do with security. There's no spin here, if you're saying I am spinning it in a different like point #2 then sure but I never did that. Nor did I ever subscribe to it.
2) Don't care what crypto "slogan'd" itself for. I just take it for what it is. Again, I don't parrot and form my own thesis. If someone thought they'd be anonymous, they needed to verify that then engage in illegal trades because someone told them it was anonymous. You'd trust your drug dealer to tell you how to operate? Give me a break.
3) Willow is google's QC chip. Go get long GOOGL or long quantum ETFs. It is not inversely related to BTC and Blockchain's health. FYI there's more of a threat to Willow than there is to Nvidia Blackwell on the horizon-- not advice just a note.Willow is a weak, kind of amateur answer to why BTC will fail. As this has been a material sight on the horizon-- notice I said sight not obstacle--for some time as well as some other QCs. Willow is also nowhere near a threat to cryptography; Google will admit that.
Anyone at the institutional level has underwrote this risk and has not found it tangible. Anyone at the institutional level that's against BTC has bet on this and realized it's a quite a way from any recognition or realization. I don't know one that hasn't that we've conversed with, along with other Chinese chips like Zucho or distantly down Majorana among others.
For the people that actually are in the know with institutions that are heavily against BTC and heavily PRO the easiest way for me to summarize the threat of quantum computing is that it's way easier to develop resistant forks on the blockchain than to get QC scalable.
That's the general consensus among some of the real smart money pro & anti BTC. There's one reputationally aggressive fund, if not the most aggressive, that's tried to up the ante in QC to create this as they believe it's a threat to USD-- I know you don't-- that even admits it's a far larger reach than the solution for the blockchain fixing itself via latency, soft forks, etc.
You do realize if QC becomes scalable and defeats any fork attempt or latency attempt to a blockchain, then all digital security is at risk. A lazy answer for sure, but definitely a point to note. It means your communications, local bank, etc., all at risk.
Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure.
Another retribute against QC against blockchain is there's PQC(post quantum cryptography) & QSC(quantum-safe-cryptography) which is already advancing faster than QC and faster than your local massive banks at creating resistance to their own security. And what happens if more adoption appears at the BTC level? Then, you'll see increased efforts of penetrating it but also saving it.
Again-- IF, THEN.
You're missing the forest for the trees.
This is spinning out down a rabbit hole that all of about 7 people on BP will comprehend, lol.
Short version is; the vast majority of people have no comprehension of nor do they want to fully know or comprehend all of the details. They want there money to be safe, simple and easy.
They earn $___, it shows up in an account, they go buy ___, know the price, simple life.
When they hear of this hack, that heist, this exploit etc. it scares them plain n simple.
And crypto won't work if 90% of people fear the use of it.
BTC value is set by usership. Less users = less market value.
It's shine is already wearing off. Will diehards such as yourself keep in, sure, of course. But reality is at least 50% in BTC today are not the ilk of yourself. There novices at best, and most just blindly holding something because it's value held promise of making them $. Lot's of $.
Burst that perception bubble, and watch those masses of novice exit. As they are literally today. I in one of my BTC chat's just read countless persons say "WTF is all this $ going from people selling????".
Well, guess who IS green today? Remember what I wrote before? O, Realty Income Corp. They are UP today, as so much else is gushing red all over the market. F Ford was up now down 0.35% as COIN is down (OOF-DAH) 17%.......
I warned, I said you WILL see this happen and happen very soon. I didn't expect it the next day, lol, but I did call it. I even called where some of the $ would go, which is exactly what it's doing.
- 1yV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
I was waiting for this type of response.Quote from @Ken M.:
.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
apologies niece not daughter in law....getting old.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever.
It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever.
I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too.
I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid.
When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks.
The new shiny toy is ai.
Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).
People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world.In just the last 5 days BTC has ranged in value from a high of $94,380.26 too a low of $81,157.32.
BTC is the very definition of volatile.
No business can humanly exist selling say a loaf of bread on Monday at one value, and come Friday when they go to reorder items to produce more bread, 10% of the sale $ they took in has evaporated into thin air.
And that's just in 5 days. Real moves.
The only reason 85% of people were on the BTC and crypto "train" was because it was going UP in value. Just like NFT's. Just like Tulips had long before.
Now it's rhetoric and assorted other hype to keep the hopeium alive. Because all who have leveraged into it know the fade is running out of runway.
As people get tired of it, don't see parabolic growth and profits, the shine is wearing off and people will sell and move on to what is current, shiny and with prospects of parabolic growth and profits ie ai.
As people sell BTC value goes down. Because it's value is based on NOTHING, literally. It's based on people holding and buying it.
So as it flatlines as it is, sentiment of it coming down grows as it is, selling takes hold and as it sells value drops reinforcing the downward movement and decisions to sell. And a downward spiral begins.
AMC & GME was little different. People chasing rainbows of massive profits. Than bag holders holding out on hopeium. But as time passes more and more wake up to the reality that the rainbows are long gone and 100% annual returns are fantasy but 50% losses are real.
It's the Gold Rush mentality. or better said, a Pump-n-dump. BTC and crypto is just one with some longer track to it than others given the criminal utility of it all. Great if your an international arms smuggler, not so great for a 50-something Jane/John Doe.
It was fun while it lasted, I'm over it now and onto playing ai. Selling Put's, taking leaps, selling calls, making $ 4-ways on market movements.
And continuing to do Real Estate, good-ole-reliable.
Why waste time on a literal gamble of BTC when it's at bizonkers high prices?
It's called buy low n sell high, not buy high and pray for inhuman additional astronomical highs.
Government promised...... Yeah well they been promising me peace on earth, clean water, clear skies, low tax's and all the other oh-so-good for long as I can remember.
Words hype and hopes.
I operate on facts, math and certainty.
That's very appropriate vol for BTC; VTI and QQQ were 3.5-4% negative in 5d and range quite strong too. Comparatively, that vol for BTC is quite normal. We've seen way bigger vol swings for BTC so not sure that's the point I'd make against it.
BTC vol will tighten once there's more adoption. That's proven given the fact we had significantly more drawdowns and significantly more often when less were invested. Just to give you a vol comparison in the last 10 years Nvidia has had 2 50% drawdowns. There's risk to everything. Given 10 years ago BTC was a fraction of what it's worth now percentage based draw downs are a bit misled given absolute value differential.
BTC adoption has gone institutional, prior it was emerging markets and little retail. It's hard to call it pump & dump now.
BTC's biggest argument is it's a threat to the USD, and a savior for emerging markets. For that reason, BTC will continue to yield up to the right but also correct more harshly than any other asset class. Like I said in a previous post, this correction and perhaps recession that will take place will be quite devastating for BTC, but long-term BTC holders or maximalists will yield the most advantageous.
Oops."Recent and significant crypto hacks include the Bybit exchange hack on February 21, 2025, where nearly $1.5 billion worth of ether (ETH) was stolen, and a North Korean hack in March 2025 that stole $1.5 billion in cryptocurrency, making it the largest crypto hack on record according to the FBI.65
North Korean hackers have been increasingly active in the crypto space, stealing approximately $660.5 million across 20 incidents in 2023 and $1.34 billion across 47 incidents in 2024, marking a 102.88% rise in value stolen."
Show me you don't understand anything at all any more clear, Ken.
Bybit didn't hack "Ethereum". They hacked SAFE Wallet. Bybit was too cheap to purchase extra security (measures)--left UI systems as is & not enhanced. So again, it's user error and storage.
In laymen terms, this is like a scammer sending you a text to log in to confirm your AMEX details. You do, and they get access to steal funds. No other security measures. Did your USD get hacked? Or did AMEX get hacked? And are you the vulnerability or is USD?
Unfortunately, retorts like yours show that compete lack of knowledge & understanding.This is what is coined "SPIN".
Look it's simple.
For long crypto sold itself as SAFE, secure, even claiming for many years to be SAFER than current in use systems.
Crypto even slogan'd on anonymity.
If you have $ at a bank, and bank calls saying "sorry half your moneys gone, it was stolen" do you care HOW the thieves stole it? Does it matter HOW it was done? No, what matters is you thought it was safe, it was stolen, so now your sense of safety and security is GONE.
How NOT safe is crypto? I can sum it up in 1 word: WILLOW....
Every masters degree/ Phd level data scientist and computer engineer I know has exited crypto since the confirmation with WILLOW. ALL OF THEM, 100%.
For those who don't know or understand, WILLOW is the breakthrough in computing that is taking ai effectively from the era of the horse & buggy straight to nuclear propulsion.
And that analogy is even far too weak a comparison. It's more like from caveman too spaceman. Yeah, it's THAT big a leap.
So take an ai capable of running every cryptographic permutation in existence, in an hour. It can solve mathematical problems that would take conventional super computers billions upon billions of years, and do it in seconds.
Effectively, there is no such thing as data security anymore. All codes, all that jazz, DONE. All it requires is one with hardware access and the desire to implement it for such.
In other words, N.Korea, Iran, RU, etc etc etc.....
You will see crypto heists parabolically increase THIS YEAR, head my words, this is inevitable.
1) Bybit hack had nothing to do with QC. 100% to do with security. There's no spin here, if you're saying I am spinning it in a different like point #2 then sure but I never did that. Nor did I ever subscribe to it.
2) Don't care what crypto "slogan'd" itself for. I just take it for what it is. Again, I don't parrot and form my own thesis. If someone thought they'd be anonymous, they needed to verify that then engage in illegal trades because someone told them it was anonymous. You'd trust your drug dealer to tell you how to operate? Give me a break.
3) Willow is google's QC chip. Go get long GOOGL or long quantum ETFs. It is not inversely related to BTC and Blockchain's health. FYI there's more of a threat to Willow than there is to Nvidia Blackwell on the horizon-- not advice just a note.Willow is a weak, kind of amateur answer to why BTC will fail. As this has been a material sight on the horizon-- notice I said sight not obstacle--for some time as well as some other QCs. Willow is also nowhere near a threat to cryptography; Google will admit that.
Anyone at the institutional level has underwrote this risk and has not found it tangible. Anyone at the institutional level that's against BTC has bet on this and realized it's a quite a way from any recognition or realization. I don't know one that hasn't that we've conversed with, along with other Chinese chips like Zucho or distantly down Majorana among others.
For the people that actually are in the know with institutions that are heavily against BTC and heavily PRO the easiest way for me to summarize the threat of quantum computing is that it's way easier to develop resistant forks on the blockchain than to get QC scalable.
That's the general consensus among some of the real smart money pro & anti BTC. There's one reputationally aggressive fund, if not the most aggressive, that's tried to up the ante in QC to create this as they believe it's a threat to USD-- I know you don't-- that even admits it's a far larger reach than the solution for the blockchain fixing itself via latency, soft forks, etc.
You do realize if QC becomes scalable and defeats any fork attempt or latency attempt to a blockchain, then all digital security is at risk. A lazy answer for sure, but definitely a point to note. It means your communications, local bank, etc., all at risk.
Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure.
Another retribute against QC against blockchain is there's PQC(post quantum cryptography) & QSC(quantum-safe-cryptography) which is already advancing faster than QC and faster than your local massive banks at creating resistance to their own security. And what happens if more adoption appears at the BTC level? Then, you'll see increased efforts of penetrating it but also saving it.
Again-- IF, THEN.
You're missing the forest for the trees.
This is spinning out down a rabbit hole that all of about 7 people on BP will comprehend, lol.
Short version is; the vast majority of people have no comprehension of nor do they want to fully know or comprehend all of the details. They want there money to be safe, simple and easy.
They earn $___, it shows up in an account, they go buy ___, know the price, simple life.
When they hear of this hack, that heist, this exploit etc. it scares them plain n simple.
And crypto won't work if 90% of people fear the use of it.
BTC value is set by usership. Less users = less market value.
It's shine is already wearing off. Will diehards such as yourself keep in, sure, of course. But reality is at least 50% in BTC today are not the ilk of yourself. There novices at best, and most just blindly holding something because it's value held promise of making them $. Lot's of $.
Burst that perception bubble, and watch those masses of novice exit. As they are literally today. I in one of my BTC chat's just read countless persons say "WTF is all this $ going from people selling????".
Well, guess who IS green today? Remember what I wrote before? O, Realty Income Corp. They are UP today, as so much else is gushing red all over the market. F Ford was up now down 0.35% as COIN is down (OOF-DAH) 17%.......
I warned, I said you WILL see this happen and happen very soon. I didn't expect it the next day, lol, but I did call it. I even called where some of the $ would go, which is exactly what it's doing.
Maybe you missed it, but I put it in bold again.
"Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure."
It will scare some folks, but it's not the end of the journey for BTC. Just like SBF/FTX scared tons of folks, it still came back. FWIW, I got into BTC as an allocation after Mt Gox. That did not scare me, it's actually where I started to educate myself. And actually where some of the largest investors came in, too. Little history will show some of the largest institutional players(as individuals not on the behalf of institutions) jumped in also in mid 2014-early 2015.There's no missing the forest for the trees here-- we believe the same outcome for most assets(in the short term). We'll continue to disagree on the (long term) outcome of Bitcoin and that's fine. We see it in a binary fold; you see the headwinds as the reason it goes to 0, I see the headwinds as opportunities to buy. Time will tell.
I also said I am not a diehard or maximalist, I just believe the mechanism has a lot of rumors and little facts circulating around it. Like anonymity, and other ********.
But to go back to the how & why part-- it's leverage. It's not people selling BTC to buy Ford or O.
The entire market has/had too much of expectations and engaged in too much leverage. @Chris Seveney and I have been saying this for along time and even joked about whose more cynical/pessimistic about it. In that other locked thread, @Henry Clark and I were saying there'll be a massive drawdown on equities.
They're not selling BTC to buy Ford, they're selling BTC because they are overleveraged & expectations are missing because everything is pricing for perfection.
And I mean everything is pricing for perfection;
Houses are priced to date the rate, marry the house like some folks spew. That changed the valuation and folks are compromised with their monthly payment. Some are underwater with even higher rates when agents told them to wait till 2025. Good luck. There's little liquidity here so it's usually the last fall.
Equities were priced for perfect earnings, any beat but not significantly higher is a net negative. We're seeing that reckoning begin now.
Crypto stormed 40-80% higher post trump presidency based off the premise of a pro-crypto president with little tangible strategy on how and what it'll be to get there. They bought the talk, not the walk. Unfortunately, they bought a giant share of that gain with leverage.
They're not selling BTC to buy Ford or O. Such a ridiculous take, they are selling BTC cause they are overleveraged. Just like they're selling mega cap and tech. Too much expectations and too much leverage.
And like I said before, go identify where the leverage is. The most right now is BTC, it does not mean it's dead when it gets pounded. It just means it'll get pounded.
"Any leverage in any market is going to radically flip on it's head. Identify where that is, and you found the opportunity.In America, it's almost every market. So all NAV in every field will take a circumstantial hit."
- Investor · Get yourself trained before doing something inadvisable. · Member since 2024 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes1y
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
I was waiting for this type of response.Quote from @Ken M.:
.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
apologies niece not daughter in law....getting old.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever.
It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever.
I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too.
I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid.
When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks.
The new shiny toy is ai.
Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).
People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world.In just the last 5 days BTC has ranged in value from a high of $94,380.26 too a low of $81,157.32.
BTC is the very definition of volatile.
No business can humanly exist selling say a loaf of bread on Monday at one value, and come Friday when they go to reorder items to produce more bread, 10% of the sale $ they took in has evaporated into thin air.
And that's just in 5 days. Real moves.
The only reason 85% of people were on the BTC and crypto "train" was because it was going UP in value. Just like NFT's. Just like Tulips had long before.
Now it's rhetoric and assorted other hype to keep the hopeium alive. Because all who have leveraged into it know the fade is running out of runway.
As people get tired of it, don't see parabolic growth and profits, the shine is wearing off and people will sell and move on to what is current, shiny and with prospects of parabolic growth and profits ie ai.
As people sell BTC value goes down. Because it's value is based on NOTHING, literally. It's based on people holding and buying it.
So as it flatlines as it is, sentiment of it coming down grows as it is, selling takes hold and as it sells value drops reinforcing the downward movement and decisions to sell. And a downward spiral begins.
AMC & GME was little different. People chasing rainbows of massive profits. Than bag holders holding out on hopeium. But as time passes more and more wake up to the reality that the rainbows are long gone and 100% annual returns are fantasy but 50% losses are real.
It's the Gold Rush mentality. or better said, a Pump-n-dump. BTC and crypto is just one with some longer track to it than others given the criminal utility of it all. Great if your an international arms smuggler, not so great for a 50-something Jane/John Doe.
It was fun while it lasted, I'm over it now and onto playing ai. Selling Put's, taking leaps, selling calls, making $ 4-ways on market movements.
And continuing to do Real Estate, good-ole-reliable.
Why waste time on a literal gamble of BTC when it's at bizonkers high prices?
It's called buy low n sell high, not buy high and pray for inhuman additional astronomical highs.
Government promised...... Yeah well they been promising me peace on earth, clean water, clear skies, low tax's and all the other oh-so-good for long as I can remember.
Words hype and hopes.
I operate on facts, math and certainty.
That's very appropriate vol for BTC; VTI and QQQ were 3.5-4% negative in 5d and range quite strong too. Comparatively, that vol for BTC is quite normal. We've seen way bigger vol swings for BTC so not sure that's the point I'd make against it.
BTC vol will tighten once there's more adoption. That's proven given the fact we had significantly more drawdowns and significantly more often when less were invested. Just to give you a vol comparison in the last 10 years Nvidia has had 2 50% drawdowns. There's risk to everything. Given 10 years ago BTC was a fraction of what it's worth now percentage based draw downs are a bit misled given absolute value differential.
BTC adoption has gone institutional, prior it was emerging markets and little retail. It's hard to call it pump & dump now.
BTC's biggest argument is it's a threat to the USD, and a savior for emerging markets. For that reason, BTC will continue to yield up to the right but also correct more harshly than any other asset class. Like I said in a previous post, this correction and perhaps recession that will take place will be quite devastating for BTC, but long-term BTC holders or maximalists will yield the most advantageous.
Oops."Recent and significant crypto hacks include the Bybit exchange hack on February 21, 2025, where nearly $1.5 billion worth of ether (ETH) was stolen, and a North Korean hack in March 2025 that stole $1.5 billion in cryptocurrency, making it the largest crypto hack on record according to the FBI.65
North Korean hackers have been increasingly active in the crypto space, stealing approximately $660.5 million across 20 incidents in 2023 and $1.34 billion across 47 incidents in 2024, marking a 102.88% rise in value stolen."
Show me you don't understand anything at all any more clear, Ken.
Bybit didn't hack "Ethereum". They hacked SAFE Wallet. Bybit was too cheap to purchase extra security (measures)--left UI systems as is & not enhanced. So again, it's user error and storage.
In laymen terms, this is like a scammer sending you a text to log in to confirm your AMEX details. You do, and they get access to steal funds. No other security measures. Did your USD get hacked? Or did AMEX get hacked? And are you the vulnerability or is USD?
Unfortunately, retorts like yours show that compete lack of knowledge & understanding.This is what is coined "SPIN".
Look it's simple.
For long crypto sold itself as SAFE, secure, even claiming for many years to be SAFER than current in use systems.
Crypto even slogan'd on anonymity.
If you have $ at a bank, and bank calls saying "sorry half your moneys gone, it was stolen" do you care HOW the thieves stole it? Does it matter HOW it was done? No, what matters is you thought it was safe, it was stolen, so now your sense of safety and security is GONE.
How NOT safe is crypto? I can sum it up in 1 word: WILLOW....
Every masters degree/ Phd level data scientist and computer engineer I know has exited crypto since the confirmation with WILLOW. ALL OF THEM, 100%.
For those who don't know or understand, WILLOW is the breakthrough in computing that is taking ai effectively from the era of the horse & buggy straight to nuclear propulsion.
And that analogy is even far too weak a comparison. It's more like from caveman too spaceman. Yeah, it's THAT big a leap.
So take an ai capable of running every cryptographic permutation in existence, in an hour. It can solve mathematical problems that would take conventional super computers billions upon billions of years, and do it in seconds.
Effectively, there is no such thing as data security anymore. All codes, all that jazz, DONE. All it requires is one with hardware access and the desire to implement it for such.
In other words, N.Korea, Iran, RU, etc etc etc.....
You will see crypto heists parabolically increase THIS YEAR, head my words, this is inevitable.
1) Bybit hack had nothing to do with QC. 100% to do with security. There's no spin here, if you're saying I am spinning it in a different like point #2 then sure but I never did that. Nor did I ever subscribe to it.
2) Don't care what crypto "slogan'd" itself for. I just take it for what it is. Again, I don't parrot and form my own thesis. If someone thought they'd be anonymous, they needed to verify that then engage in illegal trades because someone told them it was anonymous. You'd trust your drug dealer to tell you how to operate? Give me a break.
3) Willow is google's QC chip. Go get long GOOGL or long quantum ETFs. It is not inversely related to BTC and Blockchain's health. FYI there's more of a threat to Willow than there is to Nvidia Blackwell on the horizon-- not advice just a note.Willow is a weak, kind of amateur answer to why BTC will fail. As this has been a material sight on the horizon-- notice I said sight not obstacle--for some time as well as some other QCs. Willow is also nowhere near a threat to cryptography; Google will admit that.
Anyone at the institutional level has underwrote this risk and has not found it tangible. Anyone at the institutional level that's against BTC has bet on this and realized it's a quite a way from any recognition or realization. I don't know one that hasn't that we've conversed with, along with other Chinese chips like Zucho or distantly down Majorana among others.
For the people that actually are in the know with institutions that are heavily against BTC and heavily PRO the easiest way for me to summarize the threat of quantum computing is that it's way easier to develop resistant forks on the blockchain than to get QC scalable.
That's the general consensus among some of the real smart money pro & anti BTC. There's one reputationally aggressive fund, if not the most aggressive, that's tried to up the ante in QC to create this as they believe it's a threat to USD-- I know you don't-- that even admits it's a far larger reach than the solution for the blockchain fixing itself via latency, soft forks, etc.
You do realize if QC becomes scalable and defeats any fork attempt or latency attempt to a blockchain, then all digital security is at risk. A lazy answer for sure, but definitely a point to note. It means your communications, local bank, etc., all at risk.
Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure.
Another retribute against QC against blockchain is there's PQC(post quantum cryptography) & QSC(quantum-safe-cryptography) which is already advancing faster than QC and faster than your local massive banks at creating resistance to their own security. And what happens if more adoption appears at the BTC level? Then, you'll see increased efforts of penetrating it but also saving it.
Again-- IF, THEN.
You're missing the forest for the trees.
This is spinning out down a rabbit hole that all of about 7 people on BP will comprehend, lol.
Short version is; the vast majority of people have no comprehension of nor do they want to fully know or comprehend all of the details. They want there money to be safe, simple and easy.
They earn $___, it shows up in an account, they go buy ___, know the price, simple life.
When they hear of this hack, that heist, this exploit etc. it scares them plain n simple.
And crypto won't work if 90% of people fear the use of it.
BTC value is set by usership. Less users = less market value.
It's shine is already wearing off. Will diehards such as yourself keep in, sure, of course. But reality is at least 50% in BTC today are not the ilk of yourself. There novices at best, and most just blindly holding something because it's value held promise of making them $. Lot's of $.
Burst that perception bubble, and watch those masses of novice exit. As they are literally today. I in one of my BTC chat's just read countless persons say "WTF is all this $ going from people selling????".
Well, guess who IS green today? Remember what I wrote before? O, Realty Income Corp. They are UP today, as so much else is gushing red all over the market. F Ford was up now down 0.35% as COIN is down (OOF-DAH) 17%.......
I warned, I said you WILL see this happen and happen very soon. I didn't expect it the next day, lol, but I did call it. I even called where some of the $ would go, which is exactly what it's doing.
Maybe you missed it, but I put it in bold again.
"Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure."
It will scare some folks, but it's not the end of the journey for BTC. Just like SBF/FTX scared tons of folks, it still came back. FWIW, I got into BTC as an allocation after Mt Gox. That did not scare me, it's actually where I started to educate myself. And actually where some of the largest investors came in, too. Little history will show some of the largest institutional players(as individuals not on the behalf of institutions) jumped in also in mid 2014-early 2015.There's no missing the forest for the trees here-- we believe the same outcome for most assets(in the short term). We'll continue to disagree on the (long term) outcome of Bitcoin and that's fine. We see it in a binary fold; you see the headwinds as the reason it goes to 0, I see the headwinds as opportunities to buy. Time will tell.
I also said I am not a diehard or maximalist, I just believe the mechanism has a lot of rumors and little facts circulating around it. Like anonymity, and other ********.
But to go back to the how & why part-- it's leverage. It's not people selling BTC to buy Ford or O.
The entire market has/had too much of expectations and engaged in too much leverage. @Chris Seveney and I have been saying this for along time and even joked about whose more cynical/pessimistic about it. In that other locked thread, @Henry Clark and I were saying there'll be a massive drawdown on equities.
They're not selling BTC to buy Ford, they're selling BTC because they are overleveraged & expectations are missing because everything is pricing for perfection.
And I mean everything is pricing for perfection;
Houses are priced to date the rate, marry the house like some folks spew. That changed the valuation and folks are compromised with their monthly payment. Some are underwater with even higher rates when agents told them to wait till 2025. Good luck. There's little liquidity here so it's usually the last fall.
Equities were priced for perfect earnings, any beat but not significantly higher is a net negative. We're seeing that reckoning begin now.
Crypto stormed 40-80% higher post trump presidency based off the premise of a pro-crypto president with little tangible strategy on how and what it'll be to get there. They bought the talk, not the walk. Unfortunately, they bought a giant share of that gain with leverage.
They're not selling BTC to buy Ford or O. Such a ridiculous take, they are selling BTC cause they are overleveraged. Just like they're selling mega cap and tech. Too much expectations and too much leverage.
And like I said before, go identify where the leverage is. The most right now is BTC, it does not mean it's dead when it gets pounded. It just means it'll get pounded.
"Any leverage in any market is going to radically flip on it's head. Identify where that is, and you found the opportunity.In America, it's almost every market. So all NAV in every field will take a circumstantial hit."
Burned by Crypto, Built by Real Estate: My Journey from Rock Bottom to 10+ Deals/Year
https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/55/topics/1234436-burne...
"Then the crypto crash hit, and we lost 90% of our funds." - 1yV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @Ken M.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
I was waiting for this type of response.Quote from @Ken M.:
.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
apologies niece not daughter in law....getting old.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever.
It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever.
I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too.
I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid.
When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks.
The new shiny toy is ai.
Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).
People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world.In just the last 5 days BTC has ranged in value from a high of $94,380.26 too a low of $81,157.32.
BTC is the very definition of volatile.
No business can humanly exist selling say a loaf of bread on Monday at one value, and come Friday when they go to reorder items to produce more bread, 10% of the sale $ they took in has evaporated into thin air.
And that's just in 5 days. Real moves.
The only reason 85% of people were on the BTC and crypto "train" was because it was going UP in value. Just like NFT's. Just like Tulips had long before.
Now it's rhetoric and assorted other hype to keep the hopeium alive. Because all who have leveraged into it know the fade is running out of runway.
As people get tired of it, don't see parabolic growth and profits, the shine is wearing off and people will sell and move on to what is current, shiny and with prospects of parabolic growth and profits ie ai.
As people sell BTC value goes down. Because it's value is based on NOTHING, literally. It's based on people holding and buying it.
So as it flatlines as it is, sentiment of it coming down grows as it is, selling takes hold and as it sells value drops reinforcing the downward movement and decisions to sell. And a downward spiral begins.
AMC & GME was little different. People chasing rainbows of massive profits. Than bag holders holding out on hopeium. But as time passes more and more wake up to the reality that the rainbows are long gone and 100% annual returns are fantasy but 50% losses are real.
It's the Gold Rush mentality. or better said, a Pump-n-dump. BTC and crypto is just one with some longer track to it than others given the criminal utility of it all. Great if your an international arms smuggler, not so great for a 50-something Jane/John Doe.
It was fun while it lasted, I'm over it now and onto playing ai. Selling Put's, taking leaps, selling calls, making $ 4-ways on market movements.
And continuing to do Real Estate, good-ole-reliable.
Why waste time on a literal gamble of BTC when it's at bizonkers high prices?
It's called buy low n sell high, not buy high and pray for inhuman additional astronomical highs.
Government promised...... Yeah well they been promising me peace on earth, clean water, clear skies, low tax's and all the other oh-so-good for long as I can remember.
Words hype and hopes.
I operate on facts, math and certainty.
That's very appropriate vol for BTC; VTI and QQQ were 3.5-4% negative in 5d and range quite strong too. Comparatively, that vol for BTC is quite normal. We've seen way bigger vol swings for BTC so not sure that's the point I'd make against it.
BTC vol will tighten once there's more adoption. That's proven given the fact we had significantly more drawdowns and significantly more often when less were invested. Just to give you a vol comparison in the last 10 years Nvidia has had 2 50% drawdowns. There's risk to everything. Given 10 years ago BTC was a fraction of what it's worth now percentage based draw downs are a bit misled given absolute value differential.
BTC adoption has gone institutional, prior it was emerging markets and little retail. It's hard to call it pump & dump now.
BTC's biggest argument is it's a threat to the USD, and a savior for emerging markets. For that reason, BTC will continue to yield up to the right but also correct more harshly than any other asset class. Like I said in a previous post, this correction and perhaps recession that will take place will be quite devastating for BTC, but long-term BTC holders or maximalists will yield the most advantageous.
Oops."Recent and significant crypto hacks include the Bybit exchange hack on February 21, 2025, where nearly $1.5 billion worth of ether (ETH) was stolen, and a North Korean hack in March 2025 that stole $1.5 billion in cryptocurrency, making it the largest crypto hack on record according to the FBI.65
North Korean hackers have been increasingly active in the crypto space, stealing approximately $660.5 million across 20 incidents in 2023 and $1.34 billion across 47 incidents in 2024, marking a 102.88% rise in value stolen."
Show me you don't understand anything at all any more clear, Ken.
Bybit didn't hack "Ethereum". They hacked SAFE Wallet. Bybit was too cheap to purchase extra security (measures)--left UI systems as is & not enhanced. So again, it's user error and storage.
In laymen terms, this is like a scammer sending you a text to log in to confirm your AMEX details. You do, and they get access to steal funds. No other security measures. Did your USD get hacked? Or did AMEX get hacked? And are you the vulnerability or is USD?
Unfortunately, retorts like yours show that compete lack of knowledge & understanding.This is what is coined "SPIN".
Look it's simple.
For long crypto sold itself as SAFE, secure, even claiming for many years to be SAFER than current in use systems.
Crypto even slogan'd on anonymity.
If you have $ at a bank, and bank calls saying "sorry half your moneys gone, it was stolen" do you care HOW the thieves stole it? Does it matter HOW it was done? No, what matters is you thought it was safe, it was stolen, so now your sense of safety and security is GONE.
How NOT safe is crypto? I can sum it up in 1 word: WILLOW....
Every masters degree/ Phd level data scientist and computer engineer I know has exited crypto since the confirmation with WILLOW. ALL OF THEM, 100%.
For those who don't know or understand, WILLOW is the breakthrough in computing that is taking ai effectively from the era of the horse & buggy straight to nuclear propulsion.
And that analogy is even far too weak a comparison. It's more like from caveman too spaceman. Yeah, it's THAT big a leap.
So take an ai capable of running every cryptographic permutation in existence, in an hour. It can solve mathematical problems that would take conventional super computers billions upon billions of years, and do it in seconds.
Effectively, there is no such thing as data security anymore. All codes, all that jazz, DONE. All it requires is one with hardware access and the desire to implement it for such.
In other words, N.Korea, Iran, RU, etc etc etc.....
You will see crypto heists parabolically increase THIS YEAR, head my words, this is inevitable.
1) Bybit hack had nothing to do with QC. 100% to do with security. There's no spin here, if you're saying I am spinning it in a different like point #2 then sure but I never did that. Nor did I ever subscribe to it.
2) Don't care what crypto "slogan'd" itself for. I just take it for what it is. Again, I don't parrot and form my own thesis. If someone thought they'd be anonymous, they needed to verify that then engage in illegal trades because someone told them it was anonymous. You'd trust your drug dealer to tell you how to operate? Give me a break.
3) Willow is google's QC chip. Go get long GOOGL or long quantum ETFs. It is not inversely related to BTC and Blockchain's health. FYI there's more of a threat to Willow than there is to Nvidia Blackwell on the horizon-- not advice just a note.Willow is a weak, kind of amateur answer to why BTC will fail. As this has been a material sight on the horizon-- notice I said sight not obstacle--for some time as well as some other QCs. Willow is also nowhere near a threat to cryptography; Google will admit that.
Anyone at the institutional level has underwrote this risk and has not found it tangible. Anyone at the institutional level that's against BTC has bet on this and realized it's a quite a way from any recognition or realization. I don't know one that hasn't that we've conversed with, along with other Chinese chips like Zucho or distantly down Majorana among others.
For the people that actually are in the know with institutions that are heavily against BTC and heavily PRO the easiest way for me to summarize the threat of quantum computing is that it's way easier to develop resistant forks on the blockchain than to get QC scalable.
That's the general consensus among some of the real smart money pro & anti BTC. There's one reputationally aggressive fund, if not the most aggressive, that's tried to up the ante in QC to create this as they believe it's a threat to USD-- I know you don't-- that even admits it's a far larger reach than the solution for the blockchain fixing itself via latency, soft forks, etc.
You do realize if QC becomes scalable and defeats any fork attempt or latency attempt to a blockchain, then all digital security is at risk. A lazy answer for sure, but definitely a point to note. It means your communications, local bank, etc., all at risk.
Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure.
Another retribute against QC against blockchain is there's PQC(post quantum cryptography) & QSC(quantum-safe-cryptography) which is already advancing faster than QC and faster than your local massive banks at creating resistance to their own security. And what happens if more adoption appears at the BTC level? Then, you'll see increased efforts of penetrating it but also saving it.
Again-- IF, THEN.
You're missing the forest for the trees.
This is spinning out down a rabbit hole that all of about 7 people on BP will comprehend, lol.
Short version is; the vast majority of people have no comprehension of nor do they want to fully know or comprehend all of the details. They want there money to be safe, simple and easy.
They earn $___, it shows up in an account, they go buy ___, know the price, simple life.
When they hear of this hack, that heist, this exploit etc. it scares them plain n simple.
And crypto won't work if 90% of people fear the use of it.
BTC value is set by usership. Less users = less market value.
It's shine is already wearing off. Will diehards such as yourself keep in, sure, of course. But reality is at least 50% in BTC today are not the ilk of yourself. There novices at best, and most just blindly holding something because it's value held promise of making them $. Lot's of $.
Burst that perception bubble, and watch those masses of novice exit. As they are literally today. I in one of my BTC chat's just read countless persons say "WTF is all this $ going from people selling????".
Well, guess who IS green today? Remember what I wrote before? O, Realty Income Corp. They are UP today, as so much else is gushing red all over the market. F Ford was up now down 0.35% as COIN is down (OOF-DAH) 17%.......
I warned, I said you WILL see this happen and happen very soon. I didn't expect it the next day, lol, but I did call it. I even called where some of the $ would go, which is exactly what it's doing.
Maybe you missed it, but I put it in bold again.
"Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure."
It will scare some folks, but it's not the end of the journey for BTC. Just like SBF/FTX scared tons of folks, it still came back. FWIW, I got into BTC as an allocation after Mt Gox. That did not scare me, it's actually where I started to educate myself. And actually where some of the largest investors came in, too. Little history will show some of the largest institutional players(as individuals not on the behalf of institutions) jumped in also in mid 2014-early 2015.There's no missing the forest for the trees here-- we believe the same outcome for most assets(in the short term). We'll continue to disagree on the (long term) outcome of Bitcoin and that's fine. We see it in a binary fold; you see the headwinds as the reason it goes to 0, I see the headwinds as opportunities to buy. Time will tell.
I also said I am not a diehard or maximalist, I just believe the mechanism has a lot of rumors and little facts circulating around it. Like anonymity, and other ********.
But to go back to the how & why part-- it's leverage. It's not people selling BTC to buy Ford or O.
The entire market has/had too much of expectations and engaged in too much leverage. @Chris Seveney and I have been saying this for along time and even joked about whose more cynical/pessimistic about it. In that other locked thread, @Henry Clark and I were saying there'll be a massive drawdown on equities.
They're not selling BTC to buy Ford, they're selling BTC because they are overleveraged & expectations are missing because everything is pricing for perfection.
And I mean everything is pricing for perfection;
Houses are priced to date the rate, marry the house like some folks spew. That changed the valuation and folks are compromised with their monthly payment. Some are underwater with even higher rates when agents told them to wait till 2025. Good luck. There's little liquidity here so it's usually the last fall.
Equities were priced for perfect earnings, any beat but not significantly higher is a net negative. We're seeing that reckoning begin now.
Crypto stormed 40-80% higher post trump presidency based off the premise of a pro-crypto president with little tangible strategy on how and what it'll be to get there. They bought the talk, not the walk. Unfortunately, they bought a giant share of that gain with leverage.
They're not selling BTC to buy Ford or O. Such a ridiculous take, they are selling BTC cause they are overleveraged. Just like they're selling mega cap and tech. Too much expectations and too much leverage.
And like I said before, go identify where the leverage is. The most right now is BTC, it does not mean it's dead when it gets pounded. It just means it'll get pounded.
"Any leverage in any market is going to radically flip on it's head. Identify where that is, and you found the opportunity.In America, it's almost every market. So all NAV in every field will take a circumstantial hit."
Burned by Crypto, Built by Real Estate: My Journey from Rock Bottom to 10+ Deals/Year
https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/55/topics/1234436-burne...
"Then the crypto crash hit, and we lost 90% of our funds."You're just proving my point about buying what falls due to overlevegage.
Late 2022, I bought more. They sold and realized a large loss.
Identify the leverage, and buy the fall. You're just exposing folks who are **** at understanding it and one's who've made a career in it.
Go check where BTC traded late 2022 and it's current price. BTC, like other assets, need to be held for some term. Go check returns from late 2022 vs RE, not to say this will also be the trend but since you are asking for it. Take a look.
This is also my point James, yes folks like this guy panic sell and life is "ruined". You're not wrong about that, I just think the support bid & participants are not as weak as you suspect. 2022 was $12k expectations, $16k real, no institutions. Today I think it's high 30s with lots of institutions. No idea about nations.
Here's a trick question, Ken. Why did RE collapse in 08-09?
Is RE fraudulent or a scam?
- 1ySteve K.Realtor · Boulder, CO · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 5k+ votesOPVG Jason are you buying the dip today? TSLA also on sale, down 15%. Who wants to make a bet that Elon comes up with some new fake product to hype the stock price up again this week. I’ll bet extra that the new shiny object is AI-related.
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Ken M.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
I was waiting for this type of response.Quote from @Ken M.:
.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
apologies niece not daughter in law....getting old.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever.
It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever.
I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too.
I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid.
When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks.
The new shiny toy is ai.
Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).
People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world.In just the last 5 days BTC has ranged in value from a high of $94,380.26 too a low of $81,157.32.
BTC is the very definition of volatile.
No business can humanly exist selling say a loaf of bread on Monday at one value, and come Friday when they go to reorder items to produce more bread, 10% of the sale $ they took in has evaporated into thin air.
And that's just in 5 days. Real moves.
The only reason 85% of people were on the BTC and crypto "train" was because it was going UP in value. Just like NFT's. Just like Tulips had long before.
Now it's rhetoric and assorted other hype to keep the hopeium alive. Because all who have leveraged into it know the fade is running out of runway.
As people get tired of it, don't see parabolic growth and profits, the shine is wearing off and people will sell and move on to what is current, shiny and with prospects of parabolic growth and profits ie ai.
As people sell BTC value goes down. Because it's value is based on NOTHING, literally. It's based on people holding and buying it.
So as it flatlines as it is, sentiment of it coming down grows as it is, selling takes hold and as it sells value drops reinforcing the downward movement and decisions to sell. And a downward spiral begins.
AMC & GME was little different. People chasing rainbows of massive profits. Than bag holders holding out on hopeium. But as time passes more and more wake up to the reality that the rainbows are long gone and 100% annual returns are fantasy but 50% losses are real.
It's the Gold Rush mentality. or better said, a Pump-n-dump. BTC and crypto is just one with some longer track to it than others given the criminal utility of it all. Great if your an international arms smuggler, not so great for a 50-something Jane/John Doe.
It was fun while it lasted, I'm over it now and onto playing ai. Selling Put's, taking leaps, selling calls, making $ 4-ways on market movements.
And continuing to do Real Estate, good-ole-reliable.
Why waste time on a literal gamble of BTC when it's at bizonkers high prices?
It's called buy low n sell high, not buy high and pray for inhuman additional astronomical highs.
Government promised...... Yeah well they been promising me peace on earth, clean water, clear skies, low tax's and all the other oh-so-good for long as I can remember.
Words hype and hopes.
I operate on facts, math and certainty.
That's very appropriate vol for BTC; VTI and QQQ were 3.5-4% negative in 5d and range quite strong too. Comparatively, that vol for BTC is quite normal. We've seen way bigger vol swings for BTC so not sure that's the point I'd make against it.
BTC vol will tighten once there's more adoption. That's proven given the fact we had significantly more drawdowns and significantly more often when less were invested. Just to give you a vol comparison in the last 10 years Nvidia has had 2 50% drawdowns. There's risk to everything. Given 10 years ago BTC was a fraction of what it's worth now percentage based draw downs are a bit misled given absolute value differential.
BTC adoption has gone institutional, prior it was emerging markets and little retail. It's hard to call it pump & dump now.
BTC's biggest argument is it's a threat to the USD, and a savior for emerging markets. For that reason, BTC will continue to yield up to the right but also correct more harshly than any other asset class. Like I said in a previous post, this correction and perhaps recession that will take place will be quite devastating for BTC, but long-term BTC holders or maximalists will yield the most advantageous.
Oops."Recent and significant crypto hacks include the Bybit exchange hack on February 21, 2025, where nearly $1.5 billion worth of ether (ETH) was stolen, and a North Korean hack in March 2025 that stole $1.5 billion in cryptocurrency, making it the largest crypto hack on record according to the FBI.65
North Korean hackers have been increasingly active in the crypto space, stealing approximately $660.5 million across 20 incidents in 2023 and $1.34 billion across 47 incidents in 2024, marking a 102.88% rise in value stolen."
Show me you don't understand anything at all any more clear, Ken.
Bybit didn't hack "Ethereum". They hacked SAFE Wallet. Bybit was too cheap to purchase extra security (measures)--left UI systems as is & not enhanced. So again, it's user error and storage.
In laymen terms, this is like a scammer sending you a text to log in to confirm your AMEX details. You do, and they get access to steal funds. No other security measures. Did your USD get hacked? Or did AMEX get hacked? And are you the vulnerability or is USD?
Unfortunately, retorts like yours show that compete lack of knowledge & understanding.This is what is coined "SPIN".
Look it's simple.
For long crypto sold itself as SAFE, secure, even claiming for many years to be SAFER than current in use systems.
Crypto even slogan'd on anonymity.
If you have $ at a bank, and bank calls saying "sorry half your moneys gone, it was stolen" do you care HOW the thieves stole it? Does it matter HOW it was done? No, what matters is you thought it was safe, it was stolen, so now your sense of safety and security is GONE.
How NOT safe is crypto? I can sum it up in 1 word: WILLOW....
Every masters degree/ Phd level data scientist and computer engineer I know has exited crypto since the confirmation with WILLOW. ALL OF THEM, 100%.
For those who don't know or understand, WILLOW is the breakthrough in computing that is taking ai effectively from the era of the horse & buggy straight to nuclear propulsion.
And that analogy is even far too weak a comparison. It's more like from caveman too spaceman. Yeah, it's THAT big a leap.
So take an ai capable of running every cryptographic permutation in existence, in an hour. It can solve mathematical problems that would take conventional super computers billions upon billions of years, and do it in seconds.
Effectively, there is no such thing as data security anymore. All codes, all that jazz, DONE. All it requires is one with hardware access and the desire to implement it for such.
In other words, N.Korea, Iran, RU, etc etc etc.....
You will see crypto heists parabolically increase THIS YEAR, head my words, this is inevitable.
1) Bybit hack had nothing to do with QC. 100% to do with security. There's no spin here, if you're saying I am spinning it in a different like point #2 then sure but I never did that. Nor did I ever subscribe to it.
2) Don't care what crypto "slogan'd" itself for. I just take it for what it is. Again, I don't parrot and form my own thesis. If someone thought they'd be anonymous, they needed to verify that then engage in illegal trades because someone told them it was anonymous. You'd trust your drug dealer to tell you how to operate? Give me a break.
3) Willow is google's QC chip. Go get long GOOGL or long quantum ETFs. It is not inversely related to BTC and Blockchain's health. FYI there's more of a threat to Willow than there is to Nvidia Blackwell on the horizon-- not advice just a note.Willow is a weak, kind of amateur answer to why BTC will fail. As this has been a material sight on the horizon-- notice I said sight not obstacle--for some time as well as some other QCs. Willow is also nowhere near a threat to cryptography; Google will admit that.
Anyone at the institutional level has underwrote this risk and has not found it tangible. Anyone at the institutional level that's against BTC has bet on this and realized it's a quite a way from any recognition or realization. I don't know one that hasn't that we've conversed with, along with other Chinese chips like Zucho or distantly down Majorana among others.
For the people that actually are in the know with institutions that are heavily against BTC and heavily PRO the easiest way for me to summarize the threat of quantum computing is that it's way easier to develop resistant forks on the blockchain than to get QC scalable.
That's the general consensus among some of the real smart money pro & anti BTC. There's one reputationally aggressive fund, if not the most aggressive, that's tried to up the ante in QC to create this as they believe it's a threat to USD-- I know you don't-- that even admits it's a far larger reach than the solution for the blockchain fixing itself via latency, soft forks, etc.
You do realize if QC becomes scalable and defeats any fork attempt or latency attempt to a blockchain, then all digital security is at risk. A lazy answer for sure, but definitely a point to note. It means your communications, local bank, etc., all at risk.
Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure.
Another retribute against QC against blockchain is there's PQC(post quantum cryptography) & QSC(quantum-safe-cryptography) which is already advancing faster than QC and faster than your local massive banks at creating resistance to their own security. And what happens if more adoption appears at the BTC level? Then, you'll see increased efforts of penetrating it but also saving it.
Again-- IF, THEN.
You're missing the forest for the trees.
This is spinning out down a rabbit hole that all of about 7 people on BP will comprehend, lol.
Short version is; the vast majority of people have no comprehension of nor do they want to fully know or comprehend all of the details. They want there money to be safe, simple and easy.
They earn $___, it shows up in an account, they go buy ___, know the price, simple life.
When they hear of this hack, that heist, this exploit etc. it scares them plain n simple.
And crypto won't work if 90% of people fear the use of it.
BTC value is set by usership. Less users = less market value.
It's shine is already wearing off. Will diehards such as yourself keep in, sure, of course. But reality is at least 50% in BTC today are not the ilk of yourself. There novices at best, and most just blindly holding something because it's value held promise of making them $. Lot's of $.
Burst that perception bubble, and watch those masses of novice exit. As they are literally today. I in one of my BTC chat's just read countless persons say "WTF is all this $ going from people selling????".
Well, guess who IS green today? Remember what I wrote before? O, Realty Income Corp. They are UP today, as so much else is gushing red all over the market. F Ford was up now down 0.35% as COIN is down (OOF-DAH) 17%.......
I warned, I said you WILL see this happen and happen very soon. I didn't expect it the next day, lol, but I did call it. I even called where some of the $ would go, which is exactly what it's doing.
Maybe you missed it, but I put it in bold again.
"Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure."
It will scare some folks, but it's not the end of the journey for BTC. Just like SBF/FTX scared tons of folks, it still came back. FWIW, I got into BTC as an allocation after Mt Gox. That did not scare me, it's actually where I started to educate myself. And actually where some of the largest investors came in, too. Little history will show some of the largest institutional players(as individuals not on the behalf of institutions) jumped in also in mid 2014-early 2015.There's no missing the forest for the trees here-- we believe the same outcome for most assets(in the short term). We'll continue to disagree on the (long term) outcome of Bitcoin and that's fine. We see it in a binary fold; you see the headwinds as the reason it goes to 0, I see the headwinds as opportunities to buy. Time will tell.
I also said I am not a diehard or maximalist, I just believe the mechanism has a lot of rumors and little facts circulating around it. Like anonymity, and other ********.
But to go back to the how & why part-- it's leverage. It's not people selling BTC to buy Ford or O.
The entire market has/had too much of expectations and engaged in too much leverage. @Chris Seveney and I have been saying this for along time and even joked about whose more cynical/pessimistic about it. In that other locked thread, @Henry Clark and I were saying there'll be a massive drawdown on equities.
They're not selling BTC to buy Ford, they're selling BTC because they are overleveraged & expectations are missing because everything is pricing for perfection.
And I mean everything is pricing for perfection;
Houses are priced to date the rate, marry the house like some folks spew. That changed the valuation and folks are compromised with their monthly payment. Some are underwater with even higher rates when agents told them to wait till 2025. Good luck. There's little liquidity here so it's usually the last fall.
Equities were priced for perfect earnings, any beat but not significantly higher is a net negative. We're seeing that reckoning begin now.
Crypto stormed 40-80% higher post trump presidency based off the premise of a pro-crypto president with little tangible strategy on how and what it'll be to get there. They bought the talk, not the walk. Unfortunately, they bought a giant share of that gain with leverage.
They're not selling BTC to buy Ford or O. Such a ridiculous take, they are selling BTC cause they are overleveraged. Just like they're selling mega cap and tech. Too much expectations and too much leverage.
And like I said before, go identify where the leverage is. The most right now is BTC, it does not mean it's dead when it gets pounded. It just means it'll get pounded.
"Any leverage in any market is going to radically flip on it's head. Identify where that is, and you found the opportunity.In America, it's almost every market. So all NAV in every field will take a circumstantial hit."
Burned by Crypto, Built by Real Estate: My Journey from Rock Bottom to 10+ Deals/Year
https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/55/topics/1234436-burne...
"Then the crypto crash hit, and we lost 90% of our funds."You're just proving my point about buying what falls due to overlevegage.
Late 2022, I bought more. They sold and realized a large loss.
Identify the leverage, and buy the fall. You're just exposing folks who are **** at understanding it and one's who've made a career in it.
Go check where BTC traded late 2022 and it's current price. BTC, like other assets, need to be held for some term. Go check returns from late 2022 vs RE, not to say this will also be the trend but since you are asking for it. Take a look.
This is also my point James, yes folks like this guy panic sell and life is "ruined". You're not wrong about that, I just think the support bid & participants are not as weak as you suspect. 2022 was $12k expectations, $16k real, no institutions. Today I think it's high 30s with lots of institutions. No idea about nations.
Here's a trick question, Ken. Why did RE collapse in 08-09?
Is RE fraudulent or a scam?
- 1yV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @Steve K.:
VG Jason are you buying the dip today? TSLA also on sale, down 15%. Who wants to make a bet that Elon comes up with some new fake product to hype the stock price up again this week. I’ll bet extra that the new shiny object is AI-related.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Ken M.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
I was waiting for this type of response.Quote from @Ken M.:
.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
apologies niece not daughter in law....getting old.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever.
It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever.
I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too.
I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid.
When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks.
The new shiny toy is ai.
Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).
People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world.In just the last 5 days BTC has ranged in value from a high of $94,380.26 too a low of $81,157.32.
BTC is the very definition of volatile.
No business can humanly exist selling say a loaf of bread on Monday at one value, and come Friday when they go to reorder items to produce more bread, 10% of the sale $ they took in has evaporated into thin air.
And that's just in 5 days. Real moves.
The only reason 85% of people were on the BTC and crypto "train" was because it was going UP in value. Just like NFT's. Just like Tulips had long before.
Now it's rhetoric and assorted other hype to keep the hopeium alive. Because all who have leveraged into it know the fade is running out of runway.
As people get tired of it, don't see parabolic growth and profits, the shine is wearing off and people will sell and move on to what is current, shiny and with prospects of parabolic growth and profits ie ai.
As people sell BTC value goes down. Because it's value is based on NOTHING, literally. It's based on people holding and buying it.
So as it flatlines as it is, sentiment of it coming down grows as it is, selling takes hold and as it sells value drops reinforcing the downward movement and decisions to sell. And a downward spiral begins.
AMC & GME was little different. People chasing rainbows of massive profits. Than bag holders holding out on hopeium. But as time passes more and more wake up to the reality that the rainbows are long gone and 100% annual returns are fantasy but 50% losses are real.
It's the Gold Rush mentality. or better said, a Pump-n-dump. BTC and crypto is just one with some longer track to it than others given the criminal utility of it all. Great if your an international arms smuggler, not so great for a 50-something Jane/John Doe.
It was fun while it lasted, I'm over it now and onto playing ai. Selling Put's, taking leaps, selling calls, making $ 4-ways on market movements.
And continuing to do Real Estate, good-ole-reliable.
Why waste time on a literal gamble of BTC when it's at bizonkers high prices?
It's called buy low n sell high, not buy high and pray for inhuman additional astronomical highs.
Government promised...... Yeah well they been promising me peace on earth, clean water, clear skies, low tax's and all the other oh-so-good for long as I can remember.
Words hype and hopes.
I operate on facts, math and certainty.
That's very appropriate vol for BTC; VTI and QQQ were 3.5-4% negative in 5d and range quite strong too. Comparatively, that vol for BTC is quite normal. We've seen way bigger vol swings for BTC so not sure that's the point I'd make against it.
BTC vol will tighten once there's more adoption. That's proven given the fact we had significantly more drawdowns and significantly more often when less were invested. Just to give you a vol comparison in the last 10 years Nvidia has had 2 50% drawdowns. There's risk to everything. Given 10 years ago BTC was a fraction of what it's worth now percentage based draw downs are a bit misled given absolute value differential.
BTC adoption has gone institutional, prior it was emerging markets and little retail. It's hard to call it pump & dump now.
BTC's biggest argument is it's a threat to the USD, and a savior for emerging markets. For that reason, BTC will continue to yield up to the right but also correct more harshly than any other asset class. Like I said in a previous post, this correction and perhaps recession that will take place will be quite devastating for BTC, but long-term BTC holders or maximalists will yield the most advantageous.
Oops."Recent and significant crypto hacks include the Bybit exchange hack on February 21, 2025, where nearly $1.5 billion worth of ether (ETH) was stolen, and a North Korean hack in March 2025 that stole $1.5 billion in cryptocurrency, making it the largest crypto hack on record according to the FBI.65
North Korean hackers have been increasingly active in the crypto space, stealing approximately $660.5 million across 20 incidents in 2023 and $1.34 billion across 47 incidents in 2024, marking a 102.88% rise in value stolen."
Show me you don't understand anything at all any more clear, Ken.
Bybit didn't hack "Ethereum". They hacked SAFE Wallet. Bybit was too cheap to purchase extra security (measures)--left UI systems as is & not enhanced. So again, it's user error and storage.
In laymen terms, this is like a scammer sending you a text to log in to confirm your AMEX details. You do, and they get access to steal funds. No other security measures. Did your USD get hacked? Or did AMEX get hacked? And are you the vulnerability or is USD?
Unfortunately, retorts like yours show that compete lack of knowledge & understanding.This is what is coined "SPIN".
Look it's simple.
For long crypto sold itself as SAFE, secure, even claiming for many years to be SAFER than current in use systems.
Crypto even slogan'd on anonymity.
If you have $ at a bank, and bank calls saying "sorry half your moneys gone, it was stolen" do you care HOW the thieves stole it? Does it matter HOW it was done? No, what matters is you thought it was safe, it was stolen, so now your sense of safety and security is GONE.
How NOT safe is crypto? I can sum it up in 1 word: WILLOW....
Every masters degree/ Phd level data scientist and computer engineer I know has exited crypto since the confirmation with WILLOW. ALL OF THEM, 100%.
For those who don't know or understand, WILLOW is the breakthrough in computing that is taking ai effectively from the era of the horse & buggy straight to nuclear propulsion.
And that analogy is even far too weak a comparison. It's more like from caveman too spaceman. Yeah, it's THAT big a leap.
So take an ai capable of running every cryptographic permutation in existence, in an hour. It can solve mathematical problems that would take conventional super computers billions upon billions of years, and do it in seconds.
Effectively, there is no such thing as data security anymore. All codes, all that jazz, DONE. All it requires is one with hardware access and the desire to implement it for such.
In other words, N.Korea, Iran, RU, etc etc etc.....
You will see crypto heists parabolically increase THIS YEAR, head my words, this is inevitable.
1) Bybit hack had nothing to do with QC. 100% to do with security. There's no spin here, if you're saying I am spinning it in a different like point #2 then sure but I never did that. Nor did I ever subscribe to it.
2) Don't care what crypto "slogan'd" itself for. I just take it for what it is. Again, I don't parrot and form my own thesis. If someone thought they'd be anonymous, they needed to verify that then engage in illegal trades because someone told them it was anonymous. You'd trust your drug dealer to tell you how to operate? Give me a break.
3) Willow is google's QC chip. Go get long GOOGL or long quantum ETFs. It is not inversely related to BTC and Blockchain's health. FYI there's more of a threat to Willow than there is to Nvidia Blackwell on the horizon-- not advice just a note.Willow is a weak, kind of amateur answer to why BTC will fail. As this has been a material sight on the horizon-- notice I said sight not obstacle--for some time as well as some other QCs. Willow is also nowhere near a threat to cryptography; Google will admit that.
Anyone at the institutional level has underwrote this risk and has not found it tangible. Anyone at the institutional level that's against BTC has bet on this and realized it's a quite a way from any recognition or realization. I don't know one that hasn't that we've conversed with, along with other Chinese chips like Zucho or distantly down Majorana among others.
For the people that actually are in the know with institutions that are heavily against BTC and heavily PRO the easiest way for me to summarize the threat of quantum computing is that it's way easier to develop resistant forks on the blockchain than to get QC scalable.
That's the general consensus among some of the real smart money pro & anti BTC. There's one reputationally aggressive fund, if not the most aggressive, that's tried to up the ante in QC to create this as they believe it's a threat to USD-- I know you don't-- that even admits it's a far larger reach than the solution for the blockchain fixing itself via latency, soft forks, etc.
You do realize if QC becomes scalable and defeats any fork attempt or latency attempt to a blockchain, then all digital security is at risk. A lazy answer for sure, but definitely a point to note. It means your communications, local bank, etc., all at risk.
Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure.
Another retribute against QC against blockchain is there's PQC(post quantum cryptography) & QSC(quantum-safe-cryptography) which is already advancing faster than QC and faster than your local massive banks at creating resistance to their own security. And what happens if more adoption appears at the BTC level? Then, you'll see increased efforts of penetrating it but also saving it.
Again-- IF, THEN.
You're missing the forest for the trees.
This is spinning out down a rabbit hole that all of about 7 people on BP will comprehend, lol.
Short version is; the vast majority of people have no comprehension of nor do they want to fully know or comprehend all of the details. They want there money to be safe, simple and easy.
They earn $___, it shows up in an account, they go buy ___, know the price, simple life.
When they hear of this hack, that heist, this exploit etc. it scares them plain n simple.
And crypto won't work if 90% of people fear the use of it.
BTC value is set by usership. Less users = less market value.
It's shine is already wearing off. Will diehards such as yourself keep in, sure, of course. But reality is at least 50% in BTC today are not the ilk of yourself. There novices at best, and most just blindly holding something because it's value held promise of making them $. Lot's of $.
Burst that perception bubble, and watch those masses of novice exit. As they are literally today. I in one of my BTC chat's just read countless persons say "WTF is all this $ going from people selling????".
Well, guess who IS green today? Remember what I wrote before? O, Realty Income Corp. They are UP today, as so much else is gushing red all over the market. F Ford was up now down 0.35% as COIN is down (OOF-DAH) 17%.......
I warned, I said you WILL see this happen and happen very soon. I didn't expect it the next day, lol, but I did call it. I even called where some of the $ would go, which is exactly what it's doing.
Maybe you missed it, but I put it in bold again.
"Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure."
It will scare some folks, but it's not the end of the journey for BTC. Just like SBF/FTX scared tons of folks, it still came back. FWIW, I got into BTC as an allocation after Mt Gox. That did not scare me, it's actually where I started to educate myself. And actually where some of the largest investors came in, too. Little history will show some of the largest institutional players(as individuals not on the behalf of institutions) jumped in also in mid 2014-early 2015.There's no missing the forest for the trees here-- we believe the same outcome for most assets(in the short term). We'll continue to disagree on the (long term) outcome of Bitcoin and that's fine. We see it in a binary fold; you see the headwinds as the reason it goes to 0, I see the headwinds as opportunities to buy. Time will tell.
I also said I am not a diehard or maximalist, I just believe the mechanism has a lot of rumors and little facts circulating around it. Like anonymity, and other ********.
But to go back to the how & why part-- it's leverage. It's not people selling BTC to buy Ford or O.
The entire market has/had too much of expectations and engaged in too much leverage. @Chris Seveney and I have been saying this for along time and even joked about whose more cynical/pessimistic about it. In that other locked thread, @Henry Clark and I were saying there'll be a massive drawdown on equities.
They're not selling BTC to buy Ford, they're selling BTC because they are overleveraged & expectations are missing because everything is pricing for perfection.
And I mean everything is pricing for perfection;
Houses are priced to date the rate, marry the house like some folks spew. That changed the valuation and folks are compromised with their monthly payment. Some are underwater with even higher rates when agents told them to wait till 2025. Good luck. There's little liquidity here so it's usually the last fall.
Equities were priced for perfect earnings, any beat but not significantly higher is a net negative. We're seeing that reckoning begin now.
Crypto stormed 40-80% higher post trump presidency based off the premise of a pro-crypto president with little tangible strategy on how and what it'll be to get there. They bought the talk, not the walk. Unfortunately, they bought a giant share of that gain with leverage.
They're not selling BTC to buy Ford or O. Such a ridiculous take, they are selling BTC cause they are overleveraged. Just like they're selling mega cap and tech. Too much expectations and too much leverage.
And like I said before, go identify where the leverage is. The most right now is BTC, it does not mean it's dead when it gets pounded. It just means it'll get pounded.
"Any leverage in any market is going to radically flip on it's head. Identify where that is, and you found the opportunity.In America, it's almost every market. So all NAV in every field will take a circumstantial hit."
Burned by Crypto, Built by Real Estate: My Journey from Rock Bottom to 10+ Deals/Year
https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/55/topics/1234436-burne...
"Then the crypto crash hit, and we lost 90% of our funds."You're just proving my point about buying what falls due to overlevegage.
Late 2022, I bought more. They sold and realized a large loss.
Identify the leverage, and buy the fall. You're just exposing folks who are **** at understanding it and one's who've made a career in it.
Go check where BTC traded late 2022 and it's current price. BTC, like other assets, need to be held for some term. Go check returns from late 2022 vs RE, not to say this will also be the trend but since you are asking for it. Take a look.
This is also my point James, yes folks like this guy panic sell and life is "ruined". You're not wrong about that, I just think the support bid & participants are not as weak as you suspect. 2022 was $12k expectations, $16k real, no institutions. Today I think it's high 30s with lots of institutions. No idea about nations.
Here's a trick question, Ken. Why did RE collapse in 08-09?
Is RE fraudulent or a scam?
Yes, I did buy some TSLA today & NASDAQ(via QQQ) as a hedge & as an entry at $224 & $469.
I have no shorts on these. I'm just entering a strategic long in these at certain levels against my widespread short-term shorts. Not signaling these are the lows or the bottom, by any stretch.
Lots of things I'm watching, but few concentrated positions. Won't take that bet, but believe it has more room down by end of Q2 maybe not EOW. The humanoid object will be a rally whenever it's announced, then a hit when it's delayed. - Investor · Get yourself trained before doing something inadvisable. · Member since 2024 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes1y
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Ken M.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
I was waiting for this type of response.Quote from @Ken M.:
.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
apologies niece not daughter in law....getting old.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever.
It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever.
I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too.
I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid.
When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks.
The new shiny toy is ai.
Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).
People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world.In just the last 5 days BTC has ranged in value from a high of $94,380.26 too a low of $81,157.32.
BTC is the very definition of volatile.
No business can humanly exist selling say a loaf of bread on Monday at one value, and come Friday when they go to reorder items to produce more bread, 10% of the sale $ they took in has evaporated into thin air.
And that's just in 5 days. Real moves.
The only reason 85% of people were on the BTC and crypto "train" was because it was going UP in value. Just like NFT's. Just like Tulips had long before.
Now it's rhetoric and assorted other hype to keep the hopeium alive. Because all who have leveraged into it know the fade is running out of runway.
As people get tired of it, don't see parabolic growth and profits, the shine is wearing off and people will sell and move on to what is current, shiny and with prospects of parabolic growth and profits ie ai.
As people sell BTC value goes down. Because it's value is based on NOTHING, literally. It's based on people holding and buying it.
So as it flatlines as it is, sentiment of it coming down grows as it is, selling takes hold and as it sells value drops reinforcing the downward movement and decisions to sell. And a downward spiral begins.
AMC & GME was little different. People chasing rainbows of massive profits. Than bag holders holding out on hopeium. But as time passes more and more wake up to the reality that the rainbows are long gone and 100% annual returns are fantasy but 50% losses are real.
It's the Gold Rush mentality. or better said, a Pump-n-dump. BTC and crypto is just one with some longer track to it than others given the criminal utility of it all. Great if your an international arms smuggler, not so great for a 50-something Jane/John Doe.
It was fun while it lasted, I'm over it now and onto playing ai. Selling Put's, taking leaps, selling calls, making $ 4-ways on market movements.
And continuing to do Real Estate, good-ole-reliable.
Why waste time on a literal gamble of BTC when it's at bizonkers high prices?
It's called buy low n sell high, not buy high and pray for inhuman additional astronomical highs.
Government promised...... Yeah well they been promising me peace on earth, clean water, clear skies, low tax's and all the other oh-so-good for long as I can remember.
Words hype and hopes.
I operate on facts, math and certainty.
That's very appropriate vol for BTC; VTI and QQQ were 3.5-4% negative in 5d and range quite strong too. Comparatively, that vol for BTC is quite normal. We've seen way bigger vol swings for BTC so not sure that's the point I'd make against it.
BTC vol will tighten once there's more adoption. That's proven given the fact we had significantly more drawdowns and significantly more often when less were invested. Just to give you a vol comparison in the last 10 years Nvidia has had 2 50% drawdowns. There's risk to everything. Given 10 years ago BTC was a fraction of what it's worth now percentage based draw downs are a bit misled given absolute value differential.
BTC adoption has gone institutional, prior it was emerging markets and little retail. It's hard to call it pump & dump now.
BTC's biggest argument is it's a threat to the USD, and a savior for emerging markets. For that reason, BTC will continue to yield up to the right but also correct more harshly than any other asset class. Like I said in a previous post, this correction and perhaps recession that will take place will be quite devastating for BTC, but long-term BTC holders or maximalists will yield the most advantageous.
Oops."Recent and significant crypto hacks include the Bybit exchange hack on February 21, 2025, where nearly $1.5 billion worth of ether (ETH) was stolen, and a North Korean hack in March 2025 that stole $1.5 billion in cryptocurrency, making it the largest crypto hack on record according to the FBI.65
North Korean hackers have been increasingly active in the crypto space, stealing approximately $660.5 million across 20 incidents in 2023 and $1.34 billion across 47 incidents in 2024, marking a 102.88% rise in value stolen."
Show me you don't understand anything at all any more clear, Ken.
Bybit didn't hack "Ethereum". They hacked SAFE Wallet. Bybit was too cheap to purchase extra security (measures)--left UI systems as is & not enhanced. So again, it's user error and storage.
In laymen terms, this is like a scammer sending you a text to log in to confirm your AMEX details. You do, and they get access to steal funds. No other security measures. Did your USD get hacked? Or did AMEX get hacked? And are you the vulnerability or is USD?
Unfortunately, retorts like yours show that compete lack of knowledge & understanding.This is what is coined "SPIN".
Look it's simple.
For long crypto sold itself as SAFE, secure, even claiming for many years to be SAFER than current in use systems.
Crypto even slogan'd on anonymity.
If you have $ at a bank, and bank calls saying "sorry half your moneys gone, it was stolen" do you care HOW the thieves stole it? Does it matter HOW it was done? No, what matters is you thought it was safe, it was stolen, so now your sense of safety and security is GONE.
How NOT safe is crypto? I can sum it up in 1 word: WILLOW....
Every masters degree/ Phd level data scientist and computer engineer I know has exited crypto since the confirmation with WILLOW. ALL OF THEM, 100%.
For those who don't know or understand, WILLOW is the breakthrough in computing that is taking ai effectively from the era of the horse & buggy straight to nuclear propulsion.
And that analogy is even far too weak a comparison. It's more like from caveman too spaceman. Yeah, it's THAT big a leap.
So take an ai capable of running every cryptographic permutation in existence, in an hour. It can solve mathematical problems that would take conventional super computers billions upon billions of years, and do it in seconds.
Effectively, there is no such thing as data security anymore. All codes, all that jazz, DONE. All it requires is one with hardware access and the desire to implement it for such.
In other words, N.Korea, Iran, RU, etc etc etc.....
You will see crypto heists parabolically increase THIS YEAR, head my words, this is inevitable.
1) Bybit hack had nothing to do with QC. 100% to do with security. There's no spin here, if you're saying I am spinning it in a different like point #2 then sure but I never did that. Nor did I ever subscribe to it.
2) Don't care what crypto "slogan'd" itself for. I just take it for what it is. Again, I don't parrot and form my own thesis. If someone thought they'd be anonymous, they needed to verify that then engage in illegal trades because someone told them it was anonymous. You'd trust your drug dealer to tell you how to operate? Give me a break.
3) Willow is google's QC chip. Go get long GOOGL or long quantum ETFs. It is not inversely related to BTC and Blockchain's health. FYI there's more of a threat to Willow than there is to Nvidia Blackwell on the horizon-- not advice just a note.Willow is a weak, kind of amateur answer to why BTC will fail. As this has been a material sight on the horizon-- notice I said sight not obstacle--for some time as well as some other QCs. Willow is also nowhere near a threat to cryptography; Google will admit that.
Anyone at the institutional level has underwrote this risk and has not found it tangible. Anyone at the institutional level that's against BTC has bet on this and realized it's a quite a way from any recognition or realization. I don't know one that hasn't that we've conversed with, along with other Chinese chips like Zucho or distantly down Majorana among others.
For the people that actually are in the know with institutions that are heavily against BTC and heavily PRO the easiest way for me to summarize the threat of quantum computing is that it's way easier to develop resistant forks on the blockchain than to get QC scalable.
That's the general consensus among some of the real smart money pro & anti BTC. There's one reputationally aggressive fund, if not the most aggressive, that's tried to up the ante in QC to create this as they believe it's a threat to USD-- I know you don't-- that even admits it's a far larger reach than the solution for the blockchain fixing itself via latency, soft forks, etc.
You do realize if QC becomes scalable and defeats any fork attempt or latency attempt to a blockchain, then all digital security is at risk. A lazy answer for sure, but definitely a point to note. It means your communications, local bank, etc., all at risk.
Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure.
Another retribute against QC against blockchain is there's PQC(post quantum cryptography) & QSC(quantum-safe-cryptography) which is already advancing faster than QC and faster than your local massive banks at creating resistance to their own security. And what happens if more adoption appears at the BTC level? Then, you'll see increased efforts of penetrating it but also saving it.
Again-- IF, THEN.
You're missing the forest for the trees.
This is spinning out down a rabbit hole that all of about 7 people on BP will comprehend, lol.
Short version is; the vast majority of people have no comprehension of nor do they want to fully know or comprehend all of the details. They want there money to be safe, simple and easy.
They earn $___, it shows up in an account, they go buy ___, know the price, simple life.
When they hear of this hack, that heist, this exploit etc. it scares them plain n simple.
And crypto won't work if 90% of people fear the use of it.
BTC value is set by usership. Less users = less market value.
It's shine is already wearing off. Will diehards such as yourself keep in, sure, of course. But reality is at least 50% in BTC today are not the ilk of yourself. There novices at best, and most just blindly holding something because it's value held promise of making them $. Lot's of $.
Burst that perception bubble, and watch those masses of novice exit. As they are literally today. I in one of my BTC chat's just read countless persons say "WTF is all this $ going from people selling????".
Well, guess who IS green today? Remember what I wrote before? O, Realty Income Corp. They are UP today, as so much else is gushing red all over the market. F Ford was up now down 0.35% as COIN is down (OOF-DAH) 17%.......
I warned, I said you WILL see this happen and happen very soon. I didn't expect it the next day, lol, but I did call it. I even called where some of the $ would go, which is exactly what it's doing.
Maybe you missed it, but I put it in bold again.
"Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure."
It will scare some folks, but it's not the end of the journey for BTC. Just like SBF/FTX scared tons of folks, it still came back. FWIW, I got into BTC as an allocation after Mt Gox. That did not scare me, it's actually where I started to educate myself. And actually where some of the largest investors came in, too. Little history will show some of the largest institutional players(as individuals not on the behalf of institutions) jumped in also in mid 2014-early 2015.There's no missing the forest for the trees here-- we believe the same outcome for most assets(in the short term). We'll continue to disagree on the (long term) outcome of Bitcoin and that's fine. We see it in a binary fold; you see the headwinds as the reason it goes to 0, I see the headwinds as opportunities to buy. Time will tell.
I also said I am not a diehard or maximalist, I just believe the mechanism has a lot of rumors and little facts circulating around it. Like anonymity, and other ********.
But to go back to the how & why part-- it's leverage. It's not people selling BTC to buy Ford or O.
The entire market has/had too much of expectations and engaged in too much leverage. @Chris Seveney and I have been saying this for along time and even joked about whose more cynical/pessimistic about it. In that other locked thread, @Henry Clark and I were saying there'll be a massive drawdown on equities.
They're not selling BTC to buy Ford, they're selling BTC because they are overleveraged & expectations are missing because everything is pricing for perfection.
And I mean everything is pricing for perfection;
Houses are priced to date the rate, marry the house like some folks spew. That changed the valuation and folks are compromised with their monthly payment. Some are underwater with even higher rates when agents told them to wait till 2025. Good luck. There's little liquidity here so it's usually the last fall.
Equities were priced for perfect earnings, any beat but not significantly higher is a net negative. We're seeing that reckoning begin now.
Crypto stormed 40-80% higher post trump presidency based off the premise of a pro-crypto president with little tangible strategy on how and what it'll be to get there. They bought the talk, not the walk. Unfortunately, they bought a giant share of that gain with leverage.
They're not selling BTC to buy Ford or O. Such a ridiculous take, they are selling BTC cause they are overleveraged. Just like they're selling mega cap and tech. Too much expectations and too much leverage.
And like I said before, go identify where the leverage is. The most right now is BTC, it does not mean it's dead when it gets pounded. It just means it'll get pounded.
"Any leverage in any market is going to radically flip on it's head. Identify where that is, and you found the opportunity.In America, it's almost every market. So all NAV in every field will take a circumstantial hit."
Burned by Crypto, Built by Real Estate: My Journey from Rock Bottom to 10+ Deals/Year
https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/55/topics/1234436-burne...
"Then the crypto crash hit, and we lost 90% of our funds."You're just proving my point about buying what falls due to overlevegage.
Late 2022, I bought more. They sold and realized a large loss.
Identify the leverage, and buy the fall. You're just exposing folks who are **** at understanding it and one's who've made a career in it.
Go check where BTC traded late 2022 and it's current price. BTC, like other assets, need to be held for some term. Go check returns from late 2022 vs RE, not to say this will also be the trend but since you are asking for it. Take a look.
This is also my point James, yes folks like this guy panic sell and life is "ruined". You're not wrong about that, I just think the support bid & participants are not as weak as you suspect. 2022 was $12k expectations, $16k real, no institutions. Today I think it's high 30s with lots of institutions. No idea about nations.
Here's a trick question, Ken. Why did RE collapse in 08-09?
Is RE fraudulent or a scam?
You should watch the Big Short to understand that the 2008 real estate crash was based on a big fraudulent scam called MDS and CDOs.
But the government backstopped the loses, for the banks ;-) The biggest scam is real estate property taxes. Under the current system you can never really own your real estate even if it's paid off.
- 1yV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votesOk, I see you're not really able to understand the logic. I'll go step by step here. It'll be like Bob Stevens "appreciation" trap.
Quote from @Ken M.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Ken M.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
I was waiting for this type of response.Quote from @Ken M.:
.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
apologies niece not daughter in law....getting old.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever.
It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever.
I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too.
I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid.
When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks.
The new shiny toy is ai.
Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).
People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world.In just the last 5 days BTC has ranged in value from a high of $94,380.26 too a low of $81,157.32.
BTC is the very definition of volatile.
No business can humanly exist selling say a loaf of bread on Monday at one value, and come Friday when they go to reorder items to produce more bread, 10% of the sale $ they took in has evaporated into thin air.
And that's just in 5 days. Real moves.
The only reason 85% of people were on the BTC and crypto "train" was because it was going UP in value. Just like NFT's. Just like Tulips had long before.
Now it's rhetoric and assorted other hype to keep the hopeium alive. Because all who have leveraged into it know the fade is running out of runway.
As people get tired of it, don't see parabolic growth and profits, the shine is wearing off and people will sell and move on to what is current, shiny and with prospects of parabolic growth and profits ie ai.
As people sell BTC value goes down. Because it's value is based on NOTHING, literally. It's based on people holding and buying it.
So as it flatlines as it is, sentiment of it coming down grows as it is, selling takes hold and as it sells value drops reinforcing the downward movement and decisions to sell. And a downward spiral begins.
AMC & GME was little different. People chasing rainbows of massive profits. Than bag holders holding out on hopeium. But as time passes more and more wake up to the reality that the rainbows are long gone and 100% annual returns are fantasy but 50% losses are real.
It's the Gold Rush mentality. or better said, a Pump-n-dump. BTC and crypto is just one with some longer track to it than others given the criminal utility of it all. Great if your an international arms smuggler, not so great for a 50-something Jane/John Doe.
It was fun while it lasted, I'm over it now and onto playing ai. Selling Put's, taking leaps, selling calls, making $ 4-ways on market movements.
And continuing to do Real Estate, good-ole-reliable.
Why waste time on a literal gamble of BTC when it's at bizonkers high prices?
It's called buy low n sell high, not buy high and pray for inhuman additional astronomical highs.
Government promised...... Yeah well they been promising me peace on earth, clean water, clear skies, low tax's and all the other oh-so-good for long as I can remember.
Words hype and hopes.
I operate on facts, math and certainty.
That's very appropriate vol for BTC; VTI and QQQ were 3.5-4% negative in 5d and range quite strong too. Comparatively, that vol for BTC is quite normal. We've seen way bigger vol swings for BTC so not sure that's the point I'd make against it.
BTC vol will tighten once there's more adoption. That's proven given the fact we had significantly more drawdowns and significantly more often when less were invested. Just to give you a vol comparison in the last 10 years Nvidia has had 2 50% drawdowns. There's risk to everything. Given 10 years ago BTC was a fraction of what it's worth now percentage based draw downs are a bit misled given absolute value differential.
BTC adoption has gone institutional, prior it was emerging markets and little retail. It's hard to call it pump & dump now.
BTC's biggest argument is it's a threat to the USD, and a savior for emerging markets. For that reason, BTC will continue to yield up to the right but also correct more harshly than any other asset class. Like I said in a previous post, this correction and perhaps recession that will take place will be quite devastating for BTC, but long-term BTC holders or maximalists will yield the most advantageous.
Oops."Recent and significant crypto hacks include the Bybit exchange hack on February 21, 2025, where nearly $1.5 billion worth of ether (ETH) was stolen, and a North Korean hack in March 2025 that stole $1.5 billion in cryptocurrency, making it the largest crypto hack on record according to the FBI.65
North Korean hackers have been increasingly active in the crypto space, stealing approximately $660.5 million across 20 incidents in 2023 and $1.34 billion across 47 incidents in 2024, marking a 102.88% rise in value stolen."
Show me you don't understand anything at all any more clear, Ken.
Bybit didn't hack "Ethereum". They hacked SAFE Wallet. Bybit was too cheap to purchase extra security (measures)--left UI systems as is & not enhanced. So again, it's user error and storage.
In laymen terms, this is like a scammer sending you a text to log in to confirm your AMEX details. You do, and they get access to steal funds. No other security measures. Did your USD get hacked? Or did AMEX get hacked? And are you the vulnerability or is USD?
Unfortunately, retorts like yours show that compete lack of knowledge & understanding.This is what is coined "SPIN".
Look it's simple.
For long crypto sold itself as SAFE, secure, even claiming for many years to be SAFER than current in use systems.
Crypto even slogan'd on anonymity.
If you have $ at a bank, and bank calls saying "sorry half your moneys gone, it was stolen" do you care HOW the thieves stole it? Does it matter HOW it was done? No, what matters is you thought it was safe, it was stolen, so now your sense of safety and security is GONE.
How NOT safe is crypto? I can sum it up in 1 word: WILLOW....
Every masters degree/ Phd level data scientist and computer engineer I know has exited crypto since the confirmation with WILLOW. ALL OF THEM, 100%.
For those who don't know or understand, WILLOW is the breakthrough in computing that is taking ai effectively from the era of the horse & buggy straight to nuclear propulsion.
And that analogy is even far too weak a comparison. It's more like from caveman too spaceman. Yeah, it's THAT big a leap.
So take an ai capable of running every cryptographic permutation in existence, in an hour. It can solve mathematical problems that would take conventional super computers billions upon billions of years, and do it in seconds.
Effectively, there is no such thing as data security anymore. All codes, all that jazz, DONE. All it requires is one with hardware access and the desire to implement it for such.
In other words, N.Korea, Iran, RU, etc etc etc.....
You will see crypto heists parabolically increase THIS YEAR, head my words, this is inevitable.
1) Bybit hack had nothing to do with QC. 100% to do with security. There's no spin here, if you're saying I am spinning it in a different like point #2 then sure but I never did that. Nor did I ever subscribe to it.
2) Don't care what crypto "slogan'd" itself for. I just take it for what it is. Again, I don't parrot and form my own thesis. If someone thought they'd be anonymous, they needed to verify that then engage in illegal trades because someone told them it was anonymous. You'd trust your drug dealer to tell you how to operate? Give me a break.
3) Willow is google's QC chip. Go get long GOOGL or long quantum ETFs. It is not inversely related to BTC and Blockchain's health. FYI there's more of a threat to Willow than there is to Nvidia Blackwell on the horizon-- not advice just a note.Willow is a weak, kind of amateur answer to why BTC will fail. As this has been a material sight on the horizon-- notice I said sight not obstacle--for some time as well as some other QCs. Willow is also nowhere near a threat to cryptography; Google will admit that.
Anyone at the institutional level has underwrote this risk and has not found it tangible. Anyone at the institutional level that's against BTC has bet on this and realized it's a quite a way from any recognition or realization. I don't know one that hasn't that we've conversed with, along with other Chinese chips like Zucho or distantly down Majorana among others.
For the people that actually are in the know with institutions that are heavily against BTC and heavily PRO the easiest way for me to summarize the threat of quantum computing is that it's way easier to develop resistant forks on the blockchain than to get QC scalable.
That's the general consensus among some of the real smart money pro & anti BTC. There's one reputationally aggressive fund, if not the most aggressive, that's tried to up the ante in QC to create this as they believe it's a threat to USD-- I know you don't-- that even admits it's a far larger reach than the solution for the blockchain fixing itself via latency, soft forks, etc.
You do realize if QC becomes scalable and defeats any fork attempt or latency attempt to a blockchain, then all digital security is at risk. A lazy answer for sure, but definitely a point to note. It means your communications, local bank, etc., all at risk.
Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure.
Another retribute against QC against blockchain is there's PQC(post quantum cryptography) & QSC(quantum-safe-cryptography) which is already advancing faster than QC and faster than your local massive banks at creating resistance to their own security. And what happens if more adoption appears at the BTC level? Then, you'll see increased efforts of penetrating it but also saving it.
Again-- IF, THEN.
You're missing the forest for the trees.
This is spinning out down a rabbit hole that all of about 7 people on BP will comprehend, lol.
Short version is; the vast majority of people have no comprehension of nor do they want to fully know or comprehend all of the details. They want there money to be safe, simple and easy.
They earn $___, it shows up in an account, they go buy ___, know the price, simple life.
When they hear of this hack, that heist, this exploit etc. it scares them plain n simple.
And crypto won't work if 90% of people fear the use of it.
BTC value is set by usership. Less users = less market value.
It's shine is already wearing off. Will diehards such as yourself keep in, sure, of course. But reality is at least 50% in BTC today are not the ilk of yourself. There novices at best, and most just blindly holding something because it's value held promise of making them $. Lot's of $.
Burst that perception bubble, and watch those masses of novice exit. As they are literally today. I in one of my BTC chat's just read countless persons say "WTF is all this $ going from people selling????".
Well, guess who IS green today? Remember what I wrote before? O, Realty Income Corp. They are UP today, as so much else is gushing red all over the market. F Ford was up now down 0.35% as COIN is down (OOF-DAH) 17%.......
I warned, I said you WILL see this happen and happen very soon. I didn't expect it the next day, lol, but I did call it. I even called where some of the $ would go, which is exactly what it's doing.
Maybe you missed it, but I put it in bold again.
"Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure."
It will scare some folks, but it's not the end of the journey for BTC. Just like SBF/FTX scared tons of folks, it still came back. FWIW, I got into BTC as an allocation after Mt Gox. That did not scare me, it's actually where I started to educate myself. And actually where some of the largest investors came in, too. Little history will show some of the largest institutional players(as individuals not on the behalf of institutions) jumped in also in mid 2014-early 2015.There's no missing the forest for the trees here-- we believe the same outcome for most assets(in the short term). We'll continue to disagree on the (long term) outcome of Bitcoin and that's fine. We see it in a binary fold; you see the headwinds as the reason it goes to 0, I see the headwinds as opportunities to buy. Time will tell.
I also said I am not a diehard or maximalist, I just believe the mechanism has a lot of rumors and little facts circulating around it. Like anonymity, and other ********.
But to go back to the how & why part-- it's leverage. It's not people selling BTC to buy Ford or O.
The entire market has/had too much of expectations and engaged in too much leverage. @Chris Seveney and I have been saying this for along time and even joked about whose more cynical/pessimistic about it. In that other locked thread, @Henry Clark and I were saying there'll be a massive drawdown on equities.
They're not selling BTC to buy Ford, they're selling BTC because they are overleveraged & expectations are missing because everything is pricing for perfection.
And I mean everything is pricing for perfection;
Houses are priced to date the rate, marry the house like some folks spew. That changed the valuation and folks are compromised with their monthly payment. Some are underwater with even higher rates when agents told them to wait till 2025. Good luck. There's little liquidity here so it's usually the last fall.
Equities were priced for perfect earnings, any beat but not significantly higher is a net negative. We're seeing that reckoning begin now.
Crypto stormed 40-80% higher post trump presidency based off the premise of a pro-crypto president with little tangible strategy on how and what it'll be to get there. They bought the talk, not the walk. Unfortunately, they bought a giant share of that gain with leverage.
They're not selling BTC to buy Ford or O. Such a ridiculous take, they are selling BTC cause they are overleveraged. Just like they're selling mega cap and tech. Too much expectations and too much leverage.
And like I said before, go identify where the leverage is. The most right now is BTC, it does not mean it's dead when it gets pounded. It just means it'll get pounded.
"Any leverage in any market is going to radically flip on it's head. Identify where that is, and you found the opportunity.In America, it's almost every market. So all NAV in every field will take a circumstantial hit."
Burned by Crypto, Built by Real Estate: My Journey from Rock Bottom to 10+ Deals/Year
https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/55/topics/1234436-burne...
"Then the crypto crash hit, and we lost 90% of our funds."You're just proving my point about buying what falls due to overlevegage.
Late 2022, I bought more. They sold and realized a large loss.
Identify the leverage, and buy the fall. You're just exposing folks who are **** at understanding it and one's who've made a career in it.
Go check where BTC traded late 2022 and it's current price. BTC, like other assets, need to be held for some term. Go check returns from late 2022 vs RE, not to say this will also be the trend but since you are asking for it. Take a look.
This is also my point James, yes folks like this guy panic sell and life is "ruined". You're not wrong about that, I just think the support bid & participants are not as weak as you suspect. 2022 was $12k expectations, $16k real, no institutions. Today I think it's high 30s with lots of institutions. No idea about nations.
Here's a trick question, Ken. Why did RE collapse in 08-09?
Is RE fraudulent or a scam?
You should watch the Big Short to understand that the 2008 real estate crash was based on a big fraudulent scam called MDS and CDOs.
But the government backstopped the loses, for the banks ;-) The biggest scam is real estate property taxes. Under the current system you can never really own your real estate even if it's paid off.
1) I assume you mean MBS not MDS. MBS has been around the late 1970s & are still around. Why hasn't there been more crashes? - Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes1y
Quote from @Steve K.:
VG Jason are you buying the dip today? TSLA also on sale, down 15%. Who wants to make a bet that Elon comes up with some new fake product to hype the stock price up again this week. I’ll bet extra that the new shiny object is AI-related.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Ken M.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
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I was waiting for this type of response.Quote from @Ken M.:
.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
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apologies niece not daughter in law....getting old.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever.
It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever.
I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too.
I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid.
When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks.
The new shiny toy is ai.
Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).
People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world.In just the last 5 days BTC has ranged in value from a high of $94,380.26 too a low of $81,157.32.
BTC is the very definition of volatile.
No business can humanly exist selling say a loaf of bread on Monday at one value, and come Friday when they go to reorder items to produce more bread, 10% of the sale $ they took in has evaporated into thin air.
And that's just in 5 days. Real moves.
The only reason 85% of people were on the BTC and crypto "train" was because it was going UP in value. Just like NFT's. Just like Tulips had long before.
Now it's rhetoric and assorted other hype to keep the hopeium alive. Because all who have leveraged into it know the fade is running out of runway.
As people get tired of it, don't see parabolic growth and profits, the shine is wearing off and people will sell and move on to what is current, shiny and with prospects of parabolic growth and profits ie ai.
As people sell BTC value goes down. Because it's value is based on NOTHING, literally. It's based on people holding and buying it.
So as it flatlines as it is, sentiment of it coming down grows as it is, selling takes hold and as it sells value drops reinforcing the downward movement and decisions to sell. And a downward spiral begins.
AMC & GME was little different. People chasing rainbows of massive profits. Than bag holders holding out on hopeium. But as time passes more and more wake up to the reality that the rainbows are long gone and 100% annual returns are fantasy but 50% losses are real.
It's the Gold Rush mentality. or better said, a Pump-n-dump. BTC and crypto is just one with some longer track to it than others given the criminal utility of it all. Great if your an international arms smuggler, not so great for a 50-something Jane/John Doe.
It was fun while it lasted, I'm over it now and onto playing ai. Selling Put's, taking leaps, selling calls, making $ 4-ways on market movements.
And continuing to do Real Estate, good-ole-reliable.
Why waste time on a literal gamble of BTC when it's at bizonkers high prices?
It's called buy low n sell high, not buy high and pray for inhuman additional astronomical highs.
Government promised...... Yeah well they been promising me peace on earth, clean water, clear skies, low tax's and all the other oh-so-good for long as I can remember.
Words hype and hopes.
I operate on facts, math and certainty.
That's very appropriate vol for BTC; VTI and QQQ were 3.5-4% negative in 5d and range quite strong too. Comparatively, that vol for BTC is quite normal. We've seen way bigger vol swings for BTC so not sure that's the point I'd make against it.
BTC vol will tighten once there's more adoption. That's proven given the fact we had significantly more drawdowns and significantly more often when less were invested. Just to give you a vol comparison in the last 10 years Nvidia has had 2 50% drawdowns. There's risk to everything. Given 10 years ago BTC was a fraction of what it's worth now percentage based draw downs are a bit misled given absolute value differential.
BTC adoption has gone institutional, prior it was emerging markets and little retail. It's hard to call it pump & dump now.
BTC's biggest argument is it's a threat to the USD, and a savior for emerging markets. For that reason, BTC will continue to yield up to the right but also correct more harshly than any other asset class. Like I said in a previous post, this correction and perhaps recession that will take place will be quite devastating for BTC, but long-term BTC holders or maximalists will yield the most advantageous.
Oops."Recent and significant crypto hacks include the Bybit exchange hack on February 21, 2025, where nearly $1.5 billion worth of ether (ETH) was stolen, and a North Korean hack in March 2025 that stole $1.5 billion in cryptocurrency, making it the largest crypto hack on record according to the FBI.65
North Korean hackers have been increasingly active in the crypto space, stealing approximately $660.5 million across 20 incidents in 2023 and $1.34 billion across 47 incidents in 2024, marking a 102.88% rise in value stolen."
Show me you don't understand anything at all any more clear, Ken.
Bybit didn't hack "Ethereum". They hacked SAFE Wallet. Bybit was too cheap to purchase extra security (measures)--left UI systems as is & not enhanced. So again, it's user error and storage.
In laymen terms, this is like a scammer sending you a text to log in to confirm your AMEX details. You do, and they get access to steal funds. No other security measures. Did your USD get hacked? Or did AMEX get hacked? And are you the vulnerability or is USD?
Unfortunately, retorts like yours show that compete lack of knowledge & understanding.This is what is coined "SPIN".
Look it's simple.
For long crypto sold itself as SAFE, secure, even claiming for many years to be SAFER than current in use systems.
Crypto even slogan'd on anonymity.
If you have $ at a bank, and bank calls saying "sorry half your moneys gone, it was stolen" do you care HOW the thieves stole it? Does it matter HOW it was done? No, what matters is you thought it was safe, it was stolen, so now your sense of safety and security is GONE.
How NOT safe is crypto? I can sum it up in 1 word: WILLOW....
Every masters degree/ Phd level data scientist and computer engineer I know has exited crypto since the confirmation with WILLOW. ALL OF THEM, 100%.
For those who don't know or understand, WILLOW is the breakthrough in computing that is taking ai effectively from the era of the horse & buggy straight to nuclear propulsion.
And that analogy is even far too weak a comparison. It's more like from caveman too spaceman. Yeah, it's THAT big a leap.
So take an ai capable of running every cryptographic permutation in existence, in an hour. It can solve mathematical problems that would take conventional super computers billions upon billions of years, and do it in seconds.
Effectively, there is no such thing as data security anymore. All codes, all that jazz, DONE. All it requires is one with hardware access and the desire to implement it for such.
In other words, N.Korea, Iran, RU, etc etc etc.....
You will see crypto heists parabolically increase THIS YEAR, head my words, this is inevitable.
1) Bybit hack had nothing to do with QC. 100% to do with security. There's no spin here, if you're saying I am spinning it in a different like point #2 then sure but I never did that. Nor did I ever subscribe to it.
2) Don't care what crypto "slogan'd" itself for. I just take it for what it is. Again, I don't parrot and form my own thesis. If someone thought they'd be anonymous, they needed to verify that then engage in illegal trades because someone told them it was anonymous. You'd trust your drug dealer to tell you how to operate? Give me a break.
3) Willow is google's QC chip. Go get long GOOGL or long quantum ETFs. It is not inversely related to BTC and Blockchain's health. FYI there's more of a threat to Willow than there is to Nvidia Blackwell on the horizon-- not advice just a note.Willow is a weak, kind of amateur answer to why BTC will fail. As this has been a material sight on the horizon-- notice I said sight not obstacle--for some time as well as some other QCs. Willow is also nowhere near a threat to cryptography; Google will admit that.
Anyone at the institutional level has underwrote this risk and has not found it tangible. Anyone at the institutional level that's against BTC has bet on this and realized it's a quite a way from any recognition or realization. I don't know one that hasn't that we've conversed with, along with other Chinese chips like Zucho or distantly down Majorana among others.
For the people that actually are in the know with institutions that are heavily against BTC and heavily PRO the easiest way for me to summarize the threat of quantum computing is that it's way easier to develop resistant forks on the blockchain than to get QC scalable.
That's the general consensus among some of the real smart money pro & anti BTC. There's one reputationally aggressive fund, if not the most aggressive, that's tried to up the ante in QC to create this as they believe it's a threat to USD-- I know you don't-- that even admits it's a far larger reach than the solution for the blockchain fixing itself via latency, soft forks, etc.
You do realize if QC becomes scalable and defeats any fork attempt or latency attempt to a blockchain, then all digital security is at risk. A lazy answer for sure, but definitely a point to note. It means your communications, local bank, etc., all at risk.
Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure.
Another retribute against QC against blockchain is there's PQC(post quantum cryptography) & QSC(quantum-safe-cryptography) which is already advancing faster than QC and faster than your local massive banks at creating resistance to their own security. And what happens if more adoption appears at the BTC level? Then, you'll see increased efforts of penetrating it but also saving it.
Again-- IF, THEN.
You're missing the forest for the trees.
This is spinning out down a rabbit hole that all of about 7 people on BP will comprehend, lol.
Short version is; the vast majority of people have no comprehension of nor do they want to fully know or comprehend all of the details. They want there money to be safe, simple and easy.
They earn $___, it shows up in an account, they go buy ___, know the price, simple life.
When they hear of this hack, that heist, this exploit etc. it scares them plain n simple.
And crypto won't work if 90% of people fear the use of it.
BTC value is set by usership. Less users = less market value.
It's shine is already wearing off. Will diehards such as yourself keep in, sure, of course. But reality is at least 50% in BTC today are not the ilk of yourself. There novices at best, and most just blindly holding something because it's value held promise of making them $. Lot's of $.
Burst that perception bubble, and watch those masses of novice exit. As they are literally today. I in one of my BTC chat's just read countless persons say "WTF is all this $ going from people selling????".
Well, guess who IS green today? Remember what I wrote before? O, Realty Income Corp. They are UP today, as so much else is gushing red all over the market. F Ford was up now down 0.35% as COIN is down (OOF-DAH) 17%.......
I warned, I said you WILL see this happen and happen very soon. I didn't expect it the next day, lol, but I did call it. I even called where some of the $ would go, which is exactly what it's doing.
Maybe you missed it, but I put it in bold again.
"Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure."
It will scare some folks, but it's not the end of the journey for BTC. Just like SBF/FTX scared tons of folks, it still came back. FWIW, I got into BTC as an allocation after Mt Gox. That did not scare me, it's actually where I started to educate myself. And actually where some of the largest investors came in, too. Little history will show some of the largest institutional players(as individuals not on the behalf of institutions) jumped in also in mid 2014-early 2015.There's no missing the forest for the trees here-- we believe the same outcome for most assets(in the short term). We'll continue to disagree on the (long term) outcome of Bitcoin and that's fine. We see it in a binary fold; you see the headwinds as the reason it goes to 0, I see the headwinds as opportunities to buy. Time will tell.
I also said I am not a diehard or maximalist, I just believe the mechanism has a lot of rumors and little facts circulating around it. Like anonymity, and other ********.
But to go back to the how & why part-- it's leverage. It's not people selling BTC to buy Ford or O.
The entire market has/had too much of expectations and engaged in too much leverage. @Chris Seveney and I have been saying this for along time and even joked about whose more cynical/pessimistic about it. In that other locked thread, @Henry Clark and I were saying there'll be a massive drawdown on equities.
They're not selling BTC to buy Ford, they're selling BTC because they are overleveraged & expectations are missing because everything is pricing for perfection.
And I mean everything is pricing for perfection;
Houses are priced to date the rate, marry the house like some folks spew. That changed the valuation and folks are compromised with their monthly payment. Some are underwater with even higher rates when agents told them to wait till 2025. Good luck. There's little liquidity here so it's usually the last fall.
Equities were priced for perfect earnings, any beat but not significantly higher is a net negative. We're seeing that reckoning begin now.
Crypto stormed 40-80% higher post trump presidency based off the premise of a pro-crypto president with little tangible strategy on how and what it'll be to get there. They bought the talk, not the walk. Unfortunately, they bought a giant share of that gain with leverage.
They're not selling BTC to buy Ford or O. Such a ridiculous take, they are selling BTC cause they are overleveraged. Just like they're selling mega cap and tech. Too much expectations and too much leverage.
And like I said before, go identify where the leverage is. The most right now is BTC, it does not mean it's dead when it gets pounded. It just means it'll get pounded.
"Any leverage in any market is going to radically flip on it's head. Identify where that is, and you found the opportunity.In America, it's almost every market. So all NAV in every field will take a circumstantial hit."
Burned by Crypto, Built by Real Estate: My Journey from Rock Bottom to 10+ Deals/Year
https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/55/topics/1234436-burne...
"Then the crypto crash hit, and we lost 90% of our funds."You're just proving my point about buying what falls due to overlevegage.
Late 2022, I bought more. They sold and realized a large loss.
Identify the leverage, and buy the fall. You're just exposing folks who are **** at understanding it and one's who've made a career in it.
Go check where BTC traded late 2022 and it's current price. BTC, like other assets, need to be held for some term. Go check returns from late 2022 vs RE, not to say this will also be the trend but since you are asking for it. Take a look.
This is also my point James, yes folks like this guy panic sell and life is "ruined". You're not wrong about that, I just think the support bid & participants are not as weak as you suspect. 2022 was $12k expectations, $16k real, no institutions. Today I think it's high 30s with lots of institutions. No idea about nations.
Here's a trick question, Ken. Why did RE collapse in 08-09?
Is RE fraudulent or a scam?
Better not..... I've been shorting the hell outta em for last 2 weeks. just took profits and recycled into MORE shorts today. Tripled down baby! Down DOWN down!
- Investor · Get yourself trained before doing something inadvisable. · Member since 2024 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes1y
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Ok, I see you're not really able to understand the logic. I'll go step by step here. It'll be like Bob Stevens "appreciation" trap.Quote from @Ken M.:
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Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
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Quote from @V.G Jason:
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@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever.
You should watch the Big Short to understand that the 2008 real estate crash was based on a big fraudulent scam called MDS and CDOs.
But the government backstopped the loses, for the banks ;-) The biggest scam is real estate property taxes. Under the current system you can never really own your real estate even if it's paid off.
1) I assume you mean MBS not MDS. MBS has been around the late 1970s & are still around. Why hasn't there been more crashes?
Yep, I mean MBS. Thanks for the correction. But, you failed to mention the fraud and the CDOs. Investors **assume** that bulk loans that are originated by "legitimate" banks, which institutional investors buy from, have been properly underwritten and insured. That is what they are told. That is what they think they're buying. Properly underwritten, low risk loans.
If the secondary market marks "B" paper, as "A" paper and Say, S&P grades them as "A" paper and AIG insures those tranches, you have total deception and fraud.
When banks lend a lot of money to people with no income and no verifiable way of repaying, yet mark it as "A" paper, you get CDOs and then synthetic CDOs on top of that, before long you have a product as speculative as BitCoin. (BitCoin, Which is backed by nothing. No hard asset, no insurance and no taxation.) And in lending, payments started getting missed. In 2008, that was on a grand scale. At least there was a 10 cent on the dollar hard asset in property.
I originated a bunch of those loans when I was first starting out as a loan officer for a mortgage broker in the late 1990's bailing people out of foreclosure. (WAMAU, Option One, First Option, OCWEN) and made a ton of money. Commissions were very, very high. We took the borrower's missed payments (arrears) of tens of thousands of dollars, from their existing loan of 8% and put them into a refinance at 14%. Well, my cohorts did, I simply showed the borrower the numbers and they'd freak out. So, I bought the foreclosing properties subject to, brought the loans current, gave the sellers their equity, rehabbed as a rental or flipped it. I made my first million doing those.But, the point is, if a guy falls behind on his 8% loan, how is he going to make a payment at 14% ? I can do simple math, it rarely worked out. :-)
That problem doesn't really exist today.
And Bitcoin has to go through that same kind of cycle for people to realize the smoke and mirrors the blockchain money world is. There is nothing behind it. Except greed and hope. - 1yV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @Ken M.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Ok, I see you're not really able to understand the logic. I'll go step by step here. It'll be like Bob Stevens "appreciation" trap.Quote from @Ken M.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Ken M.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Ken M.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever.
You should watch the Big Short to understand that the 2008 real estate crash was based on a big fraudulent scam called MDS and CDOs.
But the government backstopped the loses, for the banks ;-) The biggest scam is real estate property taxes. Under the current system you can never really own your real estate even if it's paid off.
1) I assume you mean MBS not MDS. MBS has been around the late 1970s & are still around. Why hasn't there been more crashes?
Yep, I mean MBS. Thanks for the correction. But, you failed to mention the fraud and the CDOs. Investors **assume** that bulk loans that are originated by "legitimate" banks, which institutional investors buy from, have been properly underwritten and insured. That is what they are told. That is what they think they're buying. Properly underwritten, low risk loans.
If the secondary market marks "B" paper, as "A" paper and Say, S&P grades them as "A" paper and AIG insures those tranches, you have total deception and fraud.
When banks lend a lot of money to people with no income and no verifiable way of repaying, yet mark it as "A" paper, you get CDOs and then synthetic CDOs on top of that, before long you have a product as speculative as BitCoin. (BitCoin, Which is backed by nothing. No hard asset, no insurance and no taxation.) And in lending, payments started getting missed. In 2008, that was on a grand scale. At least there was a 10 cent on the dollar hard asset in property.
I originated a bunch of those loans when I was first starting out as a loan officer for a mortgage broker in the late 1990's bailing people out of foreclosure. (WAMAU, Option One, First Option, OCWEN) and made a ton of money. Commissions were very, very high. We took the borrower's missed payments (arrears) of tens of thousands of dollars, from their existing loan of 8% and put them into a refinance at 14%. Well, my cohorts did, I simply showed the borrower the numbers and they'd freak out. So, I bought the foreclosing properties subject to, brought the loans current, gave the sellers their equity, rehabbed as a rental or flipped it. I made my first million doing those.But, the point is, if a guy falls behind on his 8% loan, how is he going to make a payment at 14% ? I can do simple math, it rarely worked out. :-)
That problem doesn't really exist today.
And Bitcoin has to go through that same kind of cycle for people to realize the smoke and mirrors the blockchain money world is. There is nothing behind it. Except greed and hope.It's just a simple question. I was getting to the other points. MBS are instruments, they're not why the the GFC happened. The inappropriate leverage in them coupled with high expectations (qualified loans) caused the crash. CDOs same thing, came about in the late 80s still around. Can be a perfectly fine instrument. When you have inappropriate leverage, rarely do good things work out.
The instrument is solid, the issue is the underwriter, issuer and the buyer. I don't blame MBS, or CDOs, much like I don't blame Bitcoin. I blame the bank/exchange, I blame the user/borrower, and I blame the storage/smart contracts/underwriter.That's my point. I don't blame loans for the GFC. I blame the issuer, underwriter and borrower. The accountability needs to stick, it's not on the instrument. I don't blame Bitcoin for "heists", it's on the user, exchange, and storage mechanism.
Greed & fear always dictate the markets. That's never going to change, don't confuse that with the underlying instrument being fraudulent or scam.
Reckon that with the action of greed being conveyed via leverage. We'll see it again, like we always do.
- 1yV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votesThis will be a chopy ride, but down we go.
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Steve K.:
VG Jason are you buying the dip today? TSLA also on sale, down 15%. Who wants to make a bet that Elon comes up with some new fake product to hype the stock price up again this week. I’ll bet extra that the new shiny object is AI-related.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Ken M.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
I was waiting for this type of response.Quote from @Ken M.:
.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
apologies niece not daughter in law....getting old.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever.
It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever.
I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too.
I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid.
When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks.
The new shiny toy is ai.
Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).
People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world.In just the last 5 days BTC has ranged in value from a high of $94,380.26 too a low of $81,157.32.
BTC is the very definition of volatile.
No business can humanly exist selling say a loaf of bread on Monday at one value, and come Friday when they go to reorder items to produce more bread, 10% of the sale $ they took in has evaporated into thin air.
And that's just in 5 days. Real moves.
The only reason 85% of people were on the BTC and crypto "train" was because it was going UP in value. Just like NFT's. Just like Tulips had long before.
Now it's rhetoric and assorted other hype to keep the hopeium alive. Because all who have leveraged into it know the fade is running out of runway.
As people get tired of it, don't see parabolic growth and profits, the shine is wearing off and people will sell and move on to what is current, shiny and with prospects of parabolic growth and profits ie ai.
As people sell BTC value goes down. Because it's value is based on NOTHING, literally. It's based on people holding and buying it.
So as it flatlines as it is, sentiment of it coming down grows as it is, selling takes hold and as it sells value drops reinforcing the downward movement and decisions to sell. And a downward spiral begins.
AMC & GME was little different. People chasing rainbows of massive profits. Than bag holders holding out on hopeium. But as time passes more and more wake up to the reality that the rainbows are long gone and 100% annual returns are fantasy but 50% losses are real.
It's the Gold Rush mentality. or better said, a Pump-n-dump. BTC and crypto is just one with some longer track to it than others given the criminal utility of it all. Great if your an international arms smuggler, not so great for a 50-something Jane/John Doe.
It was fun while it lasted, I'm over it now and onto playing ai. Selling Put's, taking leaps, selling calls, making $ 4-ways on market movements.
And continuing to do Real Estate, good-ole-reliable.
Why waste time on a literal gamble of BTC when it's at bizonkers high prices?
It's called buy low n sell high, not buy high and pray for inhuman additional astronomical highs.
Government promised...... Yeah well they been promising me peace on earth, clean water, clear skies, low tax's and all the other oh-so-good for long as I can remember.
Words hype and hopes.
I operate on facts, math and certainty.
That's very appropriate vol for BTC; VTI and QQQ were 3.5-4% negative in 5d and range quite strong too. Comparatively, that vol for BTC is quite normal. We've seen way bigger vol swings for BTC so not sure that's the point I'd make against it.
BTC vol will tighten once there's more adoption. That's proven given the fact we had significantly more drawdowns and significantly more often when less were invested. Just to give you a vol comparison in the last 10 years Nvidia has had 2 50% drawdowns. There's risk to everything. Given 10 years ago BTC was a fraction of what it's worth now percentage based draw downs are a bit misled given absolute value differential.
BTC adoption has gone institutional, prior it was emerging markets and little retail. It's hard to call it pump & dump now.
BTC's biggest argument is it's a threat to the USD, and a savior for emerging markets. For that reason, BTC will continue to yield up to the right but also correct more harshly than any other asset class. Like I said in a previous post, this correction and perhaps recession that will take place will be quite devastating for BTC, but long-term BTC holders or maximalists will yield the most advantageous.
Oops."Recent and significant crypto hacks include the Bybit exchange hack on February 21, 2025, where nearly $1.5 billion worth of ether (ETH) was stolen, and a North Korean hack in March 2025 that stole $1.5 billion in cryptocurrency, making it the largest crypto hack on record according to the FBI.65
North Korean hackers have been increasingly active in the crypto space, stealing approximately $660.5 million across 20 incidents in 2023 and $1.34 billion across 47 incidents in 2024, marking a 102.88% rise in value stolen."
Show me you don't understand anything at all any more clear, Ken.
Bybit didn't hack "Ethereum". They hacked SAFE Wallet. Bybit was too cheap to purchase extra security (measures)--left UI systems as is & not enhanced. So again, it's user error and storage.
In laymen terms, this is like a scammer sending you a text to log in to confirm your AMEX details. You do, and they get access to steal funds. No other security measures. Did your USD get hacked? Or did AMEX get hacked? And are you the vulnerability or is USD?
Unfortunately, retorts like yours show that compete lack of knowledge & understanding.This is what is coined "SPIN".
Look it's simple.
For long crypto sold itself as SAFE, secure, even claiming for many years to be SAFER than current in use systems.
Crypto even slogan'd on anonymity.
If you have $ at a bank, and bank calls saying "sorry half your moneys gone, it was stolen" do you care HOW the thieves stole it? Does it matter HOW it was done? No, what matters is you thought it was safe, it was stolen, so now your sense of safety and security is GONE.
How NOT safe is crypto? I can sum it up in 1 word: WILLOW....
Every masters degree/ Phd level data scientist and computer engineer I know has exited crypto since the confirmation with WILLOW. ALL OF THEM, 100%.
For those who don't know or understand, WILLOW is the breakthrough in computing that is taking ai effectively from the era of the horse & buggy straight to nuclear propulsion.
And that analogy is even far too weak a comparison. It's more like from caveman too spaceman. Yeah, it's THAT big a leap.
So take an ai capable of running every cryptographic permutation in existence, in an hour. It can solve mathematical problems that would take conventional super computers billions upon billions of years, and do it in seconds.
Effectively, there is no such thing as data security anymore. All codes, all that jazz, DONE. All it requires is one with hardware access and the desire to implement it for such.
In other words, N.Korea, Iran, RU, etc etc etc.....
You will see crypto heists parabolically increase THIS YEAR, head my words, this is inevitable.
1) Bybit hack had nothing to do with QC. 100% to do with security. There's no spin here, if you're saying I am spinning it in a different like point #2 then sure but I never did that. Nor did I ever subscribe to it.
2) Don't care what crypto "slogan'd" itself for. I just take it for what it is. Again, I don't parrot and form my own thesis. If someone thought they'd be anonymous, they needed to verify that then engage in illegal trades because someone told them it was anonymous. You'd trust your drug dealer to tell you how to operate? Give me a break.
3) Willow is google's QC chip. Go get long GOOGL or long quantum ETFs. It is not inversely related to BTC and Blockchain's health. FYI there's more of a threat to Willow than there is to Nvidia Blackwell on the horizon-- not advice just a note.Willow is a weak, kind of amateur answer to why BTC will fail. As this has been a material sight on the horizon-- notice I said sight not obstacle--for some time as well as some other QCs. Willow is also nowhere near a threat to cryptography; Google will admit that.
Anyone at the institutional level has underwrote this risk and has not found it tangible. Anyone at the institutional level that's against BTC has bet on this and realized it's a quite a way from any recognition or realization. I don't know one that hasn't that we've conversed with, along with other Chinese chips like Zucho or distantly down Majorana among others.
For the people that actually are in the know with institutions that are heavily against BTC and heavily PRO the easiest way for me to summarize the threat of quantum computing is that it's way easier to develop resistant forks on the blockchain than to get QC scalable.
That's the general consensus among some of the real smart money pro & anti BTC. There's one reputationally aggressive fund, if not the most aggressive, that's tried to up the ante in QC to create this as they believe it's a threat to USD-- I know you don't-- that even admits it's a far larger reach than the solution for the blockchain fixing itself via latency, soft forks, etc.
You do realize if QC becomes scalable and defeats any fork attempt or latency attempt to a blockchain, then all digital security is at risk. A lazy answer for sure, but definitely a point to note. It means your communications, local bank, etc., all at risk.
Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure.
Another retribute against QC against blockchain is there's PQC(post quantum cryptography) & QSC(quantum-safe-cryptography) which is already advancing faster than QC and faster than your local massive banks at creating resistance to their own security. And what happens if more adoption appears at the BTC level? Then, you'll see increased efforts of penetrating it but also saving it.
Again-- IF, THEN.
You're missing the forest for the trees.
This is spinning out down a rabbit hole that all of about 7 people on BP will comprehend, lol.
Short version is; the vast majority of people have no comprehension of nor do they want to fully know or comprehend all of the details. They want there money to be safe, simple and easy.
They earn $___, it shows up in an account, they go buy ___, know the price, simple life.
When they hear of this hack, that heist, this exploit etc. it scares them plain n simple.
And crypto won't work if 90% of people fear the use of it.
BTC value is set by usership. Less users = less market value.
It's shine is already wearing off. Will diehards such as yourself keep in, sure, of course. But reality is at least 50% in BTC today are not the ilk of yourself. There novices at best, and most just blindly holding something because it's value held promise of making them $. Lot's of $.
Burst that perception bubble, and watch those masses of novice exit. As they are literally today. I in one of my BTC chat's just read countless persons say "WTF is all this $ going from people selling????".
Well, guess who IS green today? Remember what I wrote before? O, Realty Income Corp. They are UP today, as so much else is gushing red all over the market. F Ford was up now down 0.35% as COIN is down (OOF-DAH) 17%.......
I warned, I said you WILL see this happen and happen very soon. I didn't expect it the next day, lol, but I did call it. I even called where some of the $ would go, which is exactly what it's doing.
Maybe you missed it, but I put it in bold again.
"Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure."
It will scare some folks, but it's not the end of the journey for BTC. Just like SBF/FTX scared tons of folks, it still came back. FWIW, I got into BTC as an allocation after Mt Gox. That did not scare me, it's actually where I started to educate myself. And actually where some of the largest investors came in, too. Little history will show some of the largest institutional players(as individuals not on the behalf of institutions) jumped in also in mid 2014-early 2015.There's no missing the forest for the trees here-- we believe the same outcome for most assets(in the short term). We'll continue to disagree on the (long term) outcome of Bitcoin and that's fine. We see it in a binary fold; you see the headwinds as the reason it goes to 0, I see the headwinds as opportunities to buy. Time will tell.
I also said I am not a diehard or maximalist, I just believe the mechanism has a lot of rumors and little facts circulating around it. Like anonymity, and other ********.
But to go back to the how & why part-- it's leverage. It's not people selling BTC to buy Ford or O.
The entire market has/had too much of expectations and engaged in too much leverage. @Chris Seveney and I have been saying this for along time and even joked about whose more cynical/pessimistic about it. In that other locked thread, @Henry Clark and I were saying there'll be a massive drawdown on equities.
They're not selling BTC to buy Ford, they're selling BTC because they are overleveraged & expectations are missing because everything is pricing for perfection.
And I mean everything is pricing for perfection;
Houses are priced to date the rate, marry the house like some folks spew. That changed the valuation and folks are compromised with their monthly payment. Some are underwater with even higher rates when agents told them to wait till 2025. Good luck. There's little liquidity here so it's usually the last fall.
Equities were priced for perfect earnings, any beat but not significantly higher is a net negative. We're seeing that reckoning begin now.
Crypto stormed 40-80% higher post trump presidency based off the premise of a pro-crypto president with little tangible strategy on how and what it'll be to get there. They bought the talk, not the walk. Unfortunately, they bought a giant share of that gain with leverage.
They're not selling BTC to buy Ford or O. Such a ridiculous take, they are selling BTC cause they are overleveraged. Just like they're selling mega cap and tech. Too much expectations and too much leverage.
And like I said before, go identify where the leverage is. The most right now is BTC, it does not mean it's dead when it gets pounded. It just means it'll get pounded.
"Any leverage in any market is going to radically flip on it's head. Identify where that is, and you found the opportunity.In America, it's almost every market. So all NAV in every field will take a circumstantial hit."
Burned by Crypto, Built by Real Estate: My Journey from Rock Bottom to 10+ Deals/Year
https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/55/topics/1234436-burne...
"Then the crypto crash hit, and we lost 90% of our funds."You're just proving my point about buying what falls due to overlevegage.
Late 2022, I bought more. They sold and realized a large loss.
Identify the leverage, and buy the fall. You're just exposing folks who are **** at understanding it and one's who've made a career in it.
Go check where BTC traded late 2022 and it's current price. BTC, like other assets, need to be held for some term. Go check returns from late 2022 vs RE, not to say this will also be the trend but since you are asking for it. Take a look.
This is also my point James, yes folks like this guy panic sell and life is "ruined". You're not wrong about that, I just think the support bid & participants are not as weak as you suspect. 2022 was $12k expectations, $16k real, no institutions. Today I think it's high 30s with lots of institutions. No idea about nations.
Here's a trick question, Ken. Why did RE collapse in 08-09?
Is RE fraudulent or a scam?
Better not..... I've been shorting the hell outta em for last 2 weeks. just took profits and recycled into MORE shorts today. Tripled down baby! Down DOWN down!
Aiming for 4800-4900 S&P. - 1yV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votesThis will be a chopy ride, but down we go.
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Steve K.:
VG Jason are you buying the dip today? TSLA also on sale, down 15%. Who wants to make a bet that Elon comes up with some new fake product to hype the stock price up again this week. I’ll bet extra that the new shiny object is AI-related.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Ken M.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
I was waiting for this type of response.Quote from @Ken M.:
.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
apologies niece not daughter in law....getting old.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever.
It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever.
I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too.
I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid.
When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks.
The new shiny toy is ai.
Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).
People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world.In just the last 5 days BTC has ranged in value from a high of $94,380.26 too a low of $81,157.32.
BTC is the very definition of volatile.
No business can humanly exist selling say a loaf of bread on Monday at one value, and come Friday when they go to reorder items to produce more bread, 10% of the sale $ they took in has evaporated into thin air.
And that's just in 5 days. Real moves.
The only reason 85% of people were on the BTC and crypto "train" was because it was going UP in value. Just like NFT's. Just like Tulips had long before.
Now it's rhetoric and assorted other hype to keep the hopeium alive. Because all who have leveraged into it know the fade is running out of runway.
As people get tired of it, don't see parabolic growth and profits, the shine is wearing off and people will sell and move on to what is current, shiny and with prospects of parabolic growth and profits ie ai.
As people sell BTC value goes down. Because it's value is based on NOTHING, literally. It's based on people holding and buying it.
So as it flatlines as it is, sentiment of it coming down grows as it is, selling takes hold and as it sells value drops reinforcing the downward movement and decisions to sell. And a downward spiral begins.
AMC & GME was little different. People chasing rainbows of massive profits. Than bag holders holding out on hopeium. But as time passes more and more wake up to the reality that the rainbows are long gone and 100% annual returns are fantasy but 50% losses are real.
It's the Gold Rush mentality. or better said, a Pump-n-dump. BTC and crypto is just one with some longer track to it than others given the criminal utility of it all. Great if your an international arms smuggler, not so great for a 50-something Jane/John Doe.
It was fun while it lasted, I'm over it now and onto playing ai. Selling Put's, taking leaps, selling calls, making $ 4-ways on market movements.
And continuing to do Real Estate, good-ole-reliable.
Why waste time on a literal gamble of BTC when it's at bizonkers high prices?
It's called buy low n sell high, not buy high and pray for inhuman additional astronomical highs.
Government promised...... Yeah well they been promising me peace on earth, clean water, clear skies, low tax's and all the other oh-so-good for long as I can remember.
Words hype and hopes.
I operate on facts, math and certainty.
That's very appropriate vol for BTC; VTI and QQQ were 3.5-4% negative in 5d and range quite strong too. Comparatively, that vol for BTC is quite normal. We've seen way bigger vol swings for BTC so not sure that's the point I'd make against it.
BTC vol will tighten once there's more adoption. That's proven given the fact we had significantly more drawdowns and significantly more often when less were invested. Just to give you a vol comparison in the last 10 years Nvidia has had 2 50% drawdowns. There's risk to everything. Given 10 years ago BTC was a fraction of what it's worth now percentage based draw downs are a bit misled given absolute value differential.
BTC adoption has gone institutional, prior it was emerging markets and little retail. It's hard to call it pump & dump now.
BTC's biggest argument is it's a threat to the USD, and a savior for emerging markets. For that reason, BTC will continue to yield up to the right but also correct more harshly than any other asset class. Like I said in a previous post, this correction and perhaps recession that will take place will be quite devastating for BTC, but long-term BTC holders or maximalists will yield the most advantageous.
Oops."Recent and significant crypto hacks include the Bybit exchange hack on February 21, 2025, where nearly $1.5 billion worth of ether (ETH) was stolen, and a North Korean hack in March 2025 that stole $1.5 billion in cryptocurrency, making it the largest crypto hack on record according to the FBI.65
North Korean hackers have been increasingly active in the crypto space, stealing approximately $660.5 million across 20 incidents in 2023 and $1.34 billion across 47 incidents in 2024, marking a 102.88% rise in value stolen."
Show me you don't understand anything at all any more clear, Ken.
Bybit didn't hack "Ethereum". They hacked SAFE Wallet. Bybit was too cheap to purchase extra security (measures)--left UI systems as is & not enhanced. So again, it's user error and storage.
In laymen terms, this is like a scammer sending you a text to log in to confirm your AMEX details. You do, and they get access to steal funds. No other security measures. Did your USD get hacked? Or did AMEX get hacked? And are you the vulnerability or is USD?
Unfortunately, retorts like yours show that compete lack of knowledge & understanding.This is what is coined "SPIN".
Look it's simple.
For long crypto sold itself as SAFE, secure, even claiming for many years to be SAFER than current in use systems.
Crypto even slogan'd on anonymity.
If you have $ at a bank, and bank calls saying "sorry half your moneys gone, it was stolen" do you care HOW the thieves stole it? Does it matter HOW it was done? No, what matters is you thought it was safe, it was stolen, so now your sense of safety and security is GONE.
How NOT safe is crypto? I can sum it up in 1 word: WILLOW....
Every masters degree/ Phd level data scientist and computer engineer I know has exited crypto since the confirmation with WILLOW. ALL OF THEM, 100%.
For those who don't know or understand, WILLOW is the breakthrough in computing that is taking ai effectively from the era of the horse & buggy straight to nuclear propulsion.
And that analogy is even far too weak a comparison. It's more like from caveman too spaceman. Yeah, it's THAT big a leap.
So take an ai capable of running every cryptographic permutation in existence, in an hour. It can solve mathematical problems that would take conventional super computers billions upon billions of years, and do it in seconds.
Effectively, there is no such thing as data security anymore. All codes, all that jazz, DONE. All it requires is one with hardware access and the desire to implement it for such.
In other words, N.Korea, Iran, RU, etc etc etc.....
You will see crypto heists parabolically increase THIS YEAR, head my words, this is inevitable.
1) Bybit hack had nothing to do with QC. 100% to do with security. There's no spin here, if you're saying I am spinning it in a different like point #2 then sure but I never did that. Nor did I ever subscribe to it.
2) Don't care what crypto "slogan'd" itself for. I just take it for what it is. Again, I don't parrot and form my own thesis. If someone thought they'd be anonymous, they needed to verify that then engage in illegal trades because someone told them it was anonymous. You'd trust your drug dealer to tell you how to operate? Give me a break.
3) Willow is google's QC chip. Go get long GOOGL or long quantum ETFs. It is not inversely related to BTC and Blockchain's health. FYI there's more of a threat to Willow than there is to Nvidia Blackwell on the horizon-- not advice just a note.Willow is a weak, kind of amateur answer to why BTC will fail. As this has been a material sight on the horizon-- notice I said sight not obstacle--for some time as well as some other QCs. Willow is also nowhere near a threat to cryptography; Google will admit that.
Anyone at the institutional level has underwrote this risk and has not found it tangible. Anyone at the institutional level that's against BTC has bet on this and realized it's a quite a way from any recognition or realization. I don't know one that hasn't that we've conversed with, along with other Chinese chips like Zucho or distantly down Majorana among others.
For the people that actually are in the know with institutions that are heavily against BTC and heavily PRO the easiest way for me to summarize the threat of quantum computing is that it's way easier to develop resistant forks on the blockchain than to get QC scalable.
That's the general consensus among some of the real smart money pro & anti BTC. There's one reputationally aggressive fund, if not the most aggressive, that's tried to up the ante in QC to create this as they believe it's a threat to USD-- I know you don't-- that even admits it's a far larger reach than the solution for the blockchain fixing itself via latency, soft forks, etc.
You do realize if QC becomes scalable and defeats any fork attempt or latency attempt to a blockchain, then all digital security is at risk. A lazy answer for sure, but definitely a point to note. It means your communications, local bank, etc., all at risk.
Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure.
Another retribute against QC against blockchain is there's PQC(post quantum cryptography) & QSC(quantum-safe-cryptography) which is already advancing faster than QC and faster than your local massive banks at creating resistance to their own security. And what happens if more adoption appears at the BTC level? Then, you'll see increased efforts of penetrating it but also saving it.
Again-- IF, THEN.
You're missing the forest for the trees.
This is spinning out down a rabbit hole that all of about 7 people on BP will comprehend, lol.
Short version is; the vast majority of people have no comprehension of nor do they want to fully know or comprehend all of the details. They want there money to be safe, simple and easy.
They earn $___, it shows up in an account, they go buy ___, know the price, simple life.
When they hear of this hack, that heist, this exploit etc. it scares them plain n simple.
And crypto won't work if 90% of people fear the use of it.
BTC value is set by usership. Less users = less market value.
It's shine is already wearing off. Will diehards such as yourself keep in, sure, of course. But reality is at least 50% in BTC today are not the ilk of yourself. There novices at best, and most just blindly holding something because it's value held promise of making them $. Lot's of $.
Burst that perception bubble, and watch those masses of novice exit. As they are literally today. I in one of my BTC chat's just read countless persons say "WTF is all this $ going from people selling????".
Well, guess who IS green today? Remember what I wrote before? O, Realty Income Corp. They are UP today, as so much else is gushing red all over the market. F Ford was up now down 0.35% as COIN is down (OOF-DAH) 17%.......
I warned, I said you WILL see this happen and happen very soon. I didn't expect it the next day, lol, but I did call it. I even called where some of the $ would go, which is exactly what it's doing.
Maybe you missed it, but I put it in bold again.
"Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure."
It will scare some folks, but it's not the end of the journey for BTC. Just like SBF/FTX scared tons of folks, it still came back. FWIW, I got into BTC as an allocation after Mt Gox. That did not scare me, it's actually where I started to educate myself. And actually where some of the largest investors came in, too. Little history will show some of the largest institutional players(as individuals not on the behalf of institutions) jumped in also in mid 2014-early 2015.There's no missing the forest for the trees here-- we believe the same outcome for most assets(in the short term). We'll continue to disagree on the (long term) outcome of Bitcoin and that's fine. We see it in a binary fold; you see the headwinds as the reason it goes to 0, I see the headwinds as opportunities to buy. Time will tell.
I also said I am not a diehard or maximalist, I just believe the mechanism has a lot of rumors and little facts circulating around it. Like anonymity, and other ********.
But to go back to the how & why part-- it's leverage. It's not people selling BTC to buy Ford or O.
The entire market has/had too much of expectations and engaged in too much leverage. @Chris Seveney and I have been saying this for along time and even joked about whose more cynical/pessimistic about it. In that other locked thread, @Henry Clark and I were saying there'll be a massive drawdown on equities.
They're not selling BTC to buy Ford, they're selling BTC because they are overleveraged & expectations are missing because everything is pricing for perfection.
And I mean everything is pricing for perfection;
Houses are priced to date the rate, marry the house like some folks spew. That changed the valuation and folks are compromised with their monthly payment. Some are underwater with even higher rates when agents told them to wait till 2025. Good luck. There's little liquidity here so it's usually the last fall.
Equities were priced for perfect earnings, any beat but not significantly higher is a net negative. We're seeing that reckoning begin now.
Crypto stormed 40-80% higher post trump presidency based off the premise of a pro-crypto president with little tangible strategy on how and what it'll be to get there. They bought the talk, not the walk. Unfortunately, they bought a giant share of that gain with leverage.
They're not selling BTC to buy Ford or O. Such a ridiculous take, they are selling BTC cause they are overleveraged. Just like they're selling mega cap and tech. Too much expectations and too much leverage.
And like I said before, go identify where the leverage is. The most right now is BTC, it does not mean it's dead when it gets pounded. It just means it'll get pounded.
"Any leverage in any market is going to radically flip on it's head. Identify where that is, and you found the opportunity.In America, it's almost every market. So all NAV in every field will take a circumstantial hit."
Burned by Crypto, Built by Real Estate: My Journey from Rock Bottom to 10+ Deals/Year
https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/55/topics/1234436-burne...
"Then the crypto crash hit, and we lost 90% of our funds."You're just proving my point about buying what falls due to overlevegage.
Late 2022, I bought more. They sold and realized a large loss.
Identify the leverage, and buy the fall. You're just exposing folks who are **** at understanding it and one's who've made a career in it.
Go check where BTC traded late 2022 and it's current price. BTC, like other assets, need to be held for some term. Go check returns from late 2022 vs RE, not to say this will also be the trend but since you are asking for it. Take a look.
This is also my point James, yes folks like this guy panic sell and life is "ruined". You're not wrong about that, I just think the support bid & participants are not as weak as you suspect. 2022 was $12k expectations, $16k real, no institutions. Today I think it's high 30s with lots of institutions. No idea about nations.
Here's a trick question, Ken. Why did RE collapse in 08-09?
Is RE fraudulent or a scam?
Better not..... I've been shorting the hell outta em for last 2 weeks. just took profits and recycled into MORE shorts today. Tripled down baby! Down DOWN down!
Aiming for 4800-4900 S&P. - Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes1y
Quote from @V.G Jason:
This will be a chopy ride, but down we go.Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Steve K.:
VG Jason are you buying the dip today? TSLA also on sale, down 15%. Who wants to make a bet that Elon comes up with some new fake product to hype the stock price up again this week. I’ll bet extra that the new shiny object is AI-related.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Ken M.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
I was waiting for this type of response.Quote from @Ken M.:
.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
apologies niece not daughter in law....getting old.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever.
It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever.
I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too.
I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid.
When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks.
The new shiny toy is ai.
Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).
People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world.In just the last 5 days BTC has ranged in value from a high of $94,380.26 too a low of $81,157.32.
BTC is the very definition of volatile.
No business can humanly exist selling say a loaf of bread on Monday at one value, and come Friday when they go to reorder items to produce more bread, 10% of the sale $ they took in has evaporated into thin air.
And that's just in 5 days. Real moves.
The only reason 85% of people were on the BTC and crypto "train" was because it was going UP in value. Just like NFT's. Just like Tulips had long before.
Now it's rhetoric and assorted other hype to keep the hopeium alive. Because all who have leveraged into it know the fade is running out of runway.
As people get tired of it, don't see parabolic growth and profits, the shine is wearing off and people will sell and move on to what is current, shiny and with prospects of parabolic growth and profits ie ai.
As people sell BTC value goes down. Because it's value is based on NOTHING, literally. It's based on people holding and buying it.
So as it flatlines as it is, sentiment of it coming down grows as it is, selling takes hold and as it sells value drops reinforcing the downward movement and decisions to sell. And a downward spiral begins.
AMC & GME was little different. People chasing rainbows of massive profits. Than bag holders holding out on hopeium. But as time passes more and more wake up to the reality that the rainbows are long gone and 100% annual returns are fantasy but 50% losses are real.
It's the Gold Rush mentality. or better said, a Pump-n-dump. BTC and crypto is just one with some longer track to it than others given the criminal utility of it all. Great if your an international arms smuggler, not so great for a 50-something Jane/John Doe.
It was fun while it lasted, I'm over it now and onto playing ai. Selling Put's, taking leaps, selling calls, making $ 4-ways on market movements.
And continuing to do Real Estate, good-ole-reliable.
Why waste time on a literal gamble of BTC when it's at bizonkers high prices?
It's called buy low n sell high, not buy high and pray for inhuman additional astronomical highs.
Government promised...... Yeah well they been promising me peace on earth, clean water, clear skies, low tax's and all the other oh-so-good for long as I can remember.
Words hype and hopes.
I operate on facts, math and certainty.
That's very appropriate vol for BTC; VTI and QQQ were 3.5-4% negative in 5d and range quite strong too. Comparatively, that vol for BTC is quite normal. We've seen way bigger vol swings for BTC so not sure that's the point I'd make against it.
BTC vol will tighten once there's more adoption. That's proven given the fact we had significantly more drawdowns and significantly more often when less were invested. Just to give you a vol comparison in the last 10 years Nvidia has had 2 50% drawdowns. There's risk to everything. Given 10 years ago BTC was a fraction of what it's worth now percentage based draw downs are a bit misled given absolute value differential.
BTC adoption has gone institutional, prior it was emerging markets and little retail. It's hard to call it pump & dump now.
BTC's biggest argument is it's a threat to the USD, and a savior for emerging markets. For that reason, BTC will continue to yield up to the right but also correct more harshly than any other asset class. Like I said in a previous post, this correction and perhaps recession that will take place will be quite devastating for BTC, but long-term BTC holders or maximalists will yield the most advantageous.
Oops."Recent and significant crypto hacks include the Bybit exchange hack on February 21, 2025, where nearly $1.5 billion worth of ether (ETH) was stolen, and a North Korean hack in March 2025 that stole $1.5 billion in cryptocurrency, making it the largest crypto hack on record according to the FBI.65
North Korean hackers have been increasingly active in the crypto space, stealing approximately $660.5 million across 20 incidents in 2023 and $1.34 billion across 47 incidents in 2024, marking a 102.88% rise in value stolen."
Show me you don't understand anything at all any more clear, Ken.
Bybit didn't hack "Ethereum". They hacked SAFE Wallet. Bybit was too cheap to purchase extra security (measures)--left UI systems as is & not enhanced. So again, it's user error and storage.
In laymen terms, this is like a scammer sending you a text to log in to confirm your AMEX details. You do, and they get access to steal funds. No other security measures. Did your USD get hacked? Or did AMEX get hacked? And are you the vulnerability or is USD?
Unfortunately, retorts like yours show that compete lack of knowledge & understanding.This is what is coined "SPIN".
Look it's simple.
For long crypto sold itself as SAFE, secure, even claiming for many years to be SAFER than current in use systems.
Crypto even slogan'd on anonymity.
If you have $ at a bank, and bank calls saying "sorry half your moneys gone, it was stolen" do you care HOW the thieves stole it? Does it matter HOW it was done? No, what matters is you thought it was safe, it was stolen, so now your sense of safety and security is GONE.
How NOT safe is crypto? I can sum it up in 1 word: WILLOW....
Every masters degree/ Phd level data scientist and computer engineer I know has exited crypto since the confirmation with WILLOW. ALL OF THEM, 100%.
For those who don't know or understand, WILLOW is the breakthrough in computing that is taking ai effectively from the era of the horse & buggy straight to nuclear propulsion.
And that analogy is even far too weak a comparison. It's more like from caveman too spaceman. Yeah, it's THAT big a leap.
So take an ai capable of running every cryptographic permutation in existence, in an hour. It can solve mathematical problems that would take conventional super computers billions upon billions of years, and do it in seconds.
Effectively, there is no such thing as data security anymore. All codes, all that jazz, DONE. All it requires is one with hardware access and the desire to implement it for such.
In other words, N.Korea, Iran, RU, etc etc etc.....
You will see crypto heists parabolically increase THIS YEAR, head my words, this is inevitable.
1) Bybit hack had nothing to do with QC. 100% to do with security. There's no spin here, if you're saying I am spinning it in a different like point #2 then sure but I never did that. Nor did I ever subscribe to it.
2) Don't care what crypto "slogan'd" itself for. I just take it for what it is. Again, I don't parrot and form my own thesis. If someone thought they'd be anonymous, they needed to verify that then engage in illegal trades because someone told them it was anonymous. You'd trust your drug dealer to tell you how to operate? Give me a break.
3) Willow is google's QC chip. Go get long GOOGL or long quantum ETFs. It is not inversely related to BTC and Blockchain's health. FYI there's more of a threat to Willow than there is to Nvidia Blackwell on the horizon-- not advice just a note.Willow is a weak, kind of amateur answer to why BTC will fail. As this has been a material sight on the horizon-- notice I said sight not obstacle--for some time as well as some other QCs. Willow is also nowhere near a threat to cryptography; Google will admit that.
Anyone at the institutional level has underwrote this risk and has not found it tangible. Anyone at the institutional level that's against BTC has bet on this and realized it's a quite a way from any recognition or realization. I don't know one that hasn't that we've conversed with, along with other Chinese chips like Zucho or distantly down Majorana among others.
For the people that actually are in the know with institutions that are heavily against BTC and heavily PRO the easiest way for me to summarize the threat of quantum computing is that it's way easier to develop resistant forks on the blockchain than to get QC scalable.
That's the general consensus among some of the real smart money pro & anti BTC. There's one reputationally aggressive fund, if not the most aggressive, that's tried to up the ante in QC to create this as they believe it's a threat to USD-- I know you don't-- that even admits it's a far larger reach than the solution for the blockchain fixing itself via latency, soft forks, etc.
You do realize if QC becomes scalable and defeats any fork attempt or latency attempt to a blockchain, then all digital security is at risk. A lazy answer for sure, but definitely a point to note. It means your communications, local bank, etc., all at risk.
Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure.
Another retribute against QC against blockchain is there's PQC(post quantum cryptography) & QSC(quantum-safe-cryptography) which is already advancing faster than QC and faster than your local massive banks at creating resistance to their own security. And what happens if more adoption appears at the BTC level? Then, you'll see increased efforts of penetrating it but also saving it.
Again-- IF, THEN.
You're missing the forest for the trees.
This is spinning out down a rabbit hole that all of about 7 people on BP will comprehend, lol.
Short version is; the vast majority of people have no comprehension of nor do they want to fully know or comprehend all of the details. They want there money to be safe, simple and easy.
They earn $___, it shows up in an account, they go buy ___, know the price, simple life.
When they hear of this hack, that heist, this exploit etc. it scares them plain n simple.
And crypto won't work if 90% of people fear the use of it.
BTC value is set by usership. Less users = less market value.
It's shine is already wearing off. Will diehards such as yourself keep in, sure, of course. But reality is at least 50% in BTC today are not the ilk of yourself. There novices at best, and most just blindly holding something because it's value held promise of making them $. Lot's of $.
Burst that perception bubble, and watch those masses of novice exit. As they are literally today. I in one of my BTC chat's just read countless persons say "WTF is all this $ going from people selling????".
Well, guess who IS green today? Remember what I wrote before? O, Realty Income Corp. They are UP today, as so much else is gushing red all over the market. F Ford was up now down 0.35% as COIN is down (OOF-DAH) 17%.......
I warned, I said you WILL see this happen and happen very soon. I didn't expect it the next day, lol, but I did call it. I even called where some of the $ would go, which is exactly what it's doing.
Maybe you missed it, but I put it in bold again.
"Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure."
It will scare some folks, but it's not the end of the journey for BTC. Just like SBF/FTX scared tons of folks, it still came back. FWIW, I got into BTC as an allocation after Mt Gox. That did not scare me, it's actually where I started to educate myself. And actually where some of the largest investors came in, too. Little history will show some of the largest institutional players(as individuals not on the behalf of institutions) jumped in also in mid 2014-early 2015.There's no missing the forest for the trees here-- we believe the same outcome for most assets(in the short term). We'll continue to disagree on the (long term) outcome of Bitcoin and that's fine. We see it in a binary fold; you see the headwinds as the reason it goes to 0, I see the headwinds as opportunities to buy. Time will tell.
I also said I am not a diehard or maximalist, I just believe the mechanism has a lot of rumors and little facts circulating around it. Like anonymity, and other ********.
But to go back to the how & why part-- it's leverage. It's not people selling BTC to buy Ford or O.
The entire market has/had too much of expectations and engaged in too much leverage. @Chris Seveney and I have been saying this for along time and even joked about whose more cynical/pessimistic about it. In that other locked thread, @Henry Clark and I were saying there'll be a massive drawdown on equities.
They're not selling BTC to buy Ford, they're selling BTC because they are overleveraged & expectations are missing because everything is pricing for perfection.
And I mean everything is pricing for perfection;
Houses are priced to date the rate, marry the house like some folks spew. That changed the valuation and folks are compromised with their monthly payment. Some are underwater with even higher rates when agents told them to wait till 2025. Good luck. There's little liquidity here so it's usually the last fall.
Equities were priced for perfect earnings, any beat but not significantly higher is a net negative. We're seeing that reckoning begin now.
Crypto stormed 40-80% higher post trump presidency based off the premise of a pro-crypto president with little tangible strategy on how and what it'll be to get there. They bought the talk, not the walk. Unfortunately, they bought a giant share of that gain with leverage.
They're not selling BTC to buy Ford or O. Such a ridiculous take, they are selling BTC cause they are overleveraged. Just like they're selling mega cap and tech. Too much expectations and too much leverage.
And like I said before, go identify where the leverage is. The most right now is BTC, it does not mean it's dead when it gets pounded. It just means it'll get pounded.
"Any leverage in any market is going to radically flip on it's head. Identify where that is, and you found the opportunity.In America, it's almost every market. So all NAV in every field will take a circumstantial hit."
Burned by Crypto, Built by Real Estate: My Journey from Rock Bottom to 10+ Deals/Year
https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/55/topics/1234436-burne...
"Then the crypto crash hit, and we lost 90% of our funds."You're just proving my point about buying what falls due to overlevegage.
Late 2022, I bought more. They sold and realized a large loss.
Identify the leverage, and buy the fall. You're just exposing folks who are **** at understanding it and one's who've made a career in it.
Go check where BTC traded late 2022 and it's current price. BTC, like other assets, need to be held for some term. Go check returns from late 2022 vs RE, not to say this will also be the trend but since you are asking for it. Take a look.
This is also my point James, yes folks like this guy panic sell and life is "ruined". You're not wrong about that, I just think the support bid & participants are not as weak as you suspect. 2022 was $12k expectations, $16k real, no institutions. Today I think it's high 30s with lots of institutions. No idea about nations.
Here's a trick question, Ken. Why did RE collapse in 08-09?
Is RE fraudulent or a scam?
Better not..... I've been shorting the hell outta em for last 2 weeks. just took profits and recycled into MORE shorts today. Tripled down baby! Down DOWN down!
Aiming for 4800-4900 S&P.How ironic that as were debating all this POW it kicks off....
Now I'm starting to look back over past 3-4 weeks asking self what it is that I sniffed out that gave me this instinct to get uber defensive in things. Maybe it was luck, but maybe there was more in the signals that i subconsciously read and just knew.
And I did. I got UBER defensive. I liquidated all crypto, I had never done that in all the years not once ever. And I liquidated 30% of portfolios. And i started focusing on shorts vs going long. I removed ALL long plays, and that's normally my "jam".
My gut tells me this is gonna get bloody, mighty bloody.
I am just hopeful it reflects in 10yr bond and we could see 5% mortgage finance again here soon. That would be a silver lining for sure.
- 1yV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
This will be a chopy ride, but down we go.Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Steve K.:
VG Jason are you buying the dip today? TSLA also on sale, down 15%. Who wants to make a bet that Elon comes up with some new fake product to hype the stock price up again this week. I’ll bet extra that the new shiny object is AI-related.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Ken M.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
I was waiting for this type of response.Quote from @Ken M.:
.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
apologies niece not daughter in law....getting old.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever.
It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever.
I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too.
I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid.
When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks.
The new shiny toy is ai.
Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).
People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world.In just the last 5 days BTC has ranged in value from a high of $94,380.26 too a low of $81,157.32.
BTC is the very definition of volatile.
No business can humanly exist selling say a loaf of bread on Monday at one value, and come Friday when they go to reorder items to produce more bread, 10% of the sale $ they took in has evaporated into thin air.
And that's just in 5 days. Real moves.
The only reason 85% of people were on the BTC and crypto "train" was because it was going UP in value. Just like NFT's. Just like Tulips had long before.
Now it's rhetoric and assorted other hype to keep the hopeium alive. Because all who have leveraged into it know the fade is running out of runway.
As people get tired of it, don't see parabolic growth and profits, the shine is wearing off and people will sell and move on to what is current, shiny and with prospects of parabolic growth and profits ie ai.
As people sell BTC value goes down. Because it's value is based on NOTHING, literally. It's based on people holding and buying it.
So as it flatlines as it is, sentiment of it coming down grows as it is, selling takes hold and as it sells value drops reinforcing the downward movement and decisions to sell. And a downward spiral begins.
AMC & GME was little different. People chasing rainbows of massive profits. Than bag holders holding out on hopeium. But as time passes more and more wake up to the reality that the rainbows are long gone and 100% annual returns are fantasy but 50% losses are real.
It's the Gold Rush mentality. or better said, a Pump-n-dump. BTC and crypto is just one with some longer track to it than others given the criminal utility of it all. Great if your an international arms smuggler, not so great for a 50-something Jane/John Doe.
It was fun while it lasted, I'm over it now and onto playing ai. Selling Put's, taking leaps, selling calls, making $ 4-ways on market movements.
And continuing to do Real Estate, good-ole-reliable.
Why waste time on a literal gamble of BTC when it's at bizonkers high prices?
It's called buy low n sell high, not buy high and pray for inhuman additional astronomical highs.
Government promised...... Yeah well they been promising me peace on earth, clean water, clear skies, low tax's and all the other oh-so-good for long as I can remember.
Words hype and hopes.
I operate on facts, math and certainty.
That's very appropriate vol for BTC; VTI and QQQ were 3.5-4% negative in 5d and range quite strong too. Comparatively, that vol for BTC is quite normal. We've seen way bigger vol swings for BTC so not sure that's the point I'd make against it.
BTC vol will tighten once there's more adoption. That's proven given the fact we had significantly more drawdowns and significantly more often when less were invested. Just to give you a vol comparison in the last 10 years Nvidia has had 2 50% drawdowns. There's risk to everything. Given 10 years ago BTC was a fraction of what it's worth now percentage based draw downs are a bit misled given absolute value differential.
BTC adoption has gone institutional, prior it was emerging markets and little retail. It's hard to call it pump & dump now.
BTC's biggest argument is it's a threat to the USD, and a savior for emerging markets. For that reason, BTC will continue to yield up to the right but also correct more harshly than any other asset class. Like I said in a previous post, this correction and perhaps recession that will take place will be quite devastating for BTC, but long-term BTC holders or maximalists will yield the most advantageous.
Oops."Recent and significant crypto hacks include the Bybit exchange hack on February 21, 2025, where nearly $1.5 billion worth of ether (ETH) was stolen, and a North Korean hack in March 2025 that stole $1.5 billion in cryptocurrency, making it the largest crypto hack on record according to the FBI.65
North Korean hackers have been increasingly active in the crypto space, stealing approximately $660.5 million across 20 incidents in 2023 and $1.34 billion across 47 incidents in 2024, marking a 102.88% rise in value stolen."
Show me you don't understand anything at all any more clear, Ken.
Bybit didn't hack "Ethereum". They hacked SAFE Wallet. Bybit was too cheap to purchase extra security (measures)--left UI systems as is & not enhanced. So again, it's user error and storage.
In laymen terms, this is like a scammer sending you a text to log in to confirm your AMEX details. You do, and they get access to steal funds. No other security measures. Did your USD get hacked? Or did AMEX get hacked? And are you the vulnerability or is USD?
Unfortunately, retorts like yours show that compete lack of knowledge & understanding.This is what is coined "SPIN".
Look it's simple.
For long crypto sold itself as SAFE, secure, even claiming for many years to be SAFER than current in use systems.
Crypto even slogan'd on anonymity.
If you have $ at a bank, and bank calls saying "sorry half your moneys gone, it was stolen" do you care HOW the thieves stole it? Does it matter HOW it was done? No, what matters is you thought it was safe, it was stolen, so now your sense of safety and security is GONE.
How NOT safe is crypto? I can sum it up in 1 word: WILLOW....
Every masters degree/ Phd level data scientist and computer engineer I know has exited crypto since the confirmation with WILLOW. ALL OF THEM, 100%.
For those who don't know or understand, WILLOW is the breakthrough in computing that is taking ai effectively from the era of the horse & buggy straight to nuclear propulsion.
And that analogy is even far too weak a comparison. It's more like from caveman too spaceman. Yeah, it's THAT big a leap.
So take an ai capable of running every cryptographic permutation in existence, in an hour. It can solve mathematical problems that would take conventional super computers billions upon billions of years, and do it in seconds.
Effectively, there is no such thing as data security anymore. All codes, all that jazz, DONE. All it requires is one with hardware access and the desire to implement it for such.
In other words, N.Korea, Iran, RU, etc etc etc.....
You will see crypto heists parabolically increase THIS YEAR, head my words, this is inevitable.
1) Bybit hack had nothing to do with QC. 100% to do with security. There's no spin here, if you're saying I am spinning it in a different like point #2 then sure but I never did that. Nor did I ever subscribe to it.
2) Don't care what crypto "slogan'd" itself for. I just take it for what it is. Again, I don't parrot and form my own thesis. If someone thought they'd be anonymous, they needed to verify that then engage in illegal trades because someone told them it was anonymous. You'd trust your drug dealer to tell you how to operate? Give me a break.
3) Willow is google's QC chip. Go get long GOOGL or long quantum ETFs. It is not inversely related to BTC and Blockchain's health. FYI there's more of a threat to Willow than there is to Nvidia Blackwell on the horizon-- not advice just a note.Willow is a weak, kind of amateur answer to why BTC will fail. As this has been a material sight on the horizon-- notice I said sight not obstacle--for some time as well as some other QCs. Willow is also nowhere near a threat to cryptography; Google will admit that.
Anyone at the institutional level has underwrote this risk and has not found it tangible. Anyone at the institutional level that's against BTC has bet on this and realized it's a quite a way from any recognition or realization. I don't know one that hasn't that we've conversed with, along with other Chinese chips like Zucho or distantly down Majorana among others.
For the people that actually are in the know with institutions that are heavily against BTC and heavily PRO the easiest way for me to summarize the threat of quantum computing is that it's way easier to develop resistant forks on the blockchain than to get QC scalable.
That's the general consensus among some of the real smart money pro & anti BTC. There's one reputationally aggressive fund, if not the most aggressive, that's tried to up the ante in QC to create this as they believe it's a threat to USD-- I know you don't-- that even admits it's a far larger reach than the solution for the blockchain fixing itself via latency, soft forks, etc.
You do realize if QC becomes scalable and defeats any fork attempt or latency attempt to a blockchain, then all digital security is at risk. A lazy answer for sure, but definitely a point to note. It means your communications, local bank, etc., all at risk.
Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure.
Another retribute against QC against blockchain is there's PQC(post quantum cryptography) & QSC(quantum-safe-cryptography) which is already advancing faster than QC and faster than your local massive banks at creating resistance to their own security. And what happens if more adoption appears at the BTC level? Then, you'll see increased efforts of penetrating it but also saving it.
Again-- IF, THEN.
You're missing the forest for the trees.
This is spinning out down a rabbit hole that all of about 7 people on BP will comprehend, lol.
Short version is; the vast majority of people have no comprehension of nor do they want to fully know or comprehend all of the details. They want there money to be safe, simple and easy.
They earn $___, it shows up in an account, they go buy ___, know the price, simple life.
When they hear of this hack, that heist, this exploit etc. it scares them plain n simple.
And crypto won't work if 90% of people fear the use of it.
BTC value is set by usership. Less users = less market value.
It's shine is already wearing off. Will diehards such as yourself keep in, sure, of course. But reality is at least 50% in BTC today are not the ilk of yourself. There novices at best, and most just blindly holding something because it's value held promise of making them $. Lot's of $.
Burst that perception bubble, and watch those masses of novice exit. As they are literally today. I in one of my BTC chat's just read countless persons say "WTF is all this $ going from people selling????".
Well, guess who IS green today? Remember what I wrote before? O, Realty Income Corp. They are UP today, as so much else is gushing red all over the market. F Ford was up now down 0.35% as COIN is down (OOF-DAH) 17%.......
I warned, I said you WILL see this happen and happen very soon. I didn't expect it the next day, lol, but I did call it. I even called where some of the $ would go, which is exactly what it's doing.
Maybe you missed it, but I put it in bold again.
"Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure."
It will scare some folks, but it's not the end of the journey for BTC. Just like SBF/FTX scared tons of folks, it still came back. FWIW, I got into BTC as an allocation after Mt Gox. That did not scare me, it's actually where I started to educate myself. And actually where some of the largest investors came in, too. Little history will show some of the largest institutional players(as individuals not on the behalf of institutions) jumped in also in mid 2014-early 2015.There's no missing the forest for the trees here-- we believe the same outcome for most assets(in the short term). We'll continue to disagree on the (long term) outcome of Bitcoin and that's fine. We see it in a binary fold; you see the headwinds as the reason it goes to 0, I see the headwinds as opportunities to buy. Time will tell.
I also said I am not a diehard or maximalist, I just believe the mechanism has a lot of rumors and little facts circulating around it. Like anonymity, and other ********.
But to go back to the how & why part-- it's leverage. It's not people selling BTC to buy Ford or O.
The entire market has/had too much of expectations and engaged in too much leverage. @Chris Seveney and I have been saying this for along time and even joked about whose more cynical/pessimistic about it. In that other locked thread, @Henry Clark and I were saying there'll be a massive drawdown on equities.
They're not selling BTC to buy Ford, they're selling BTC because they are overleveraged & expectations are missing because everything is pricing for perfection.
And I mean everything is pricing for perfection;
Houses are priced to date the rate, marry the house like some folks spew. That changed the valuation and folks are compromised with their monthly payment. Some are underwater with even higher rates when agents told them to wait till 2025. Good luck. There's little liquidity here so it's usually the last fall.
Equities were priced for perfect earnings, any beat but not significantly higher is a net negative. We're seeing that reckoning begin now.
Crypto stormed 40-80% higher post trump presidency based off the premise of a pro-crypto president with little tangible strategy on how and what it'll be to get there. They bought the talk, not the walk. Unfortunately, they bought a giant share of that gain with leverage.
They're not selling BTC to buy Ford or O. Such a ridiculous take, they are selling BTC cause they are overleveraged. Just like they're selling mega cap and tech. Too much expectations and too much leverage.
And like I said before, go identify where the leverage is. The most right now is BTC, it does not mean it's dead when it gets pounded. It just means it'll get pounded.
"Any leverage in any market is going to radically flip on it's head. Identify where that is, and you found the opportunity.In America, it's almost every market. So all NAV in every field will take a circumstantial hit."
Burned by Crypto, Built by Real Estate: My Journey from Rock Bottom to 10+ Deals/Year
https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/55/topics/1234436-burne...
"Then the crypto crash hit, and we lost 90% of our funds."You're just proving my point about buying what falls due to overlevegage.
Late 2022, I bought more. They sold and realized a large loss.
Identify the leverage, and buy the fall. You're just exposing folks who are **** at understanding it and one's who've made a career in it.
Go check where BTC traded late 2022 and it's current price. BTC, like other assets, need to be held for some term. Go check returns from late 2022 vs RE, not to say this will also be the trend but since you are asking for it. Take a look.
This is also my point James, yes folks like this guy panic sell and life is "ruined". You're not wrong about that, I just think the support bid & participants are not as weak as you suspect. 2022 was $12k expectations, $16k real, no institutions. Today I think it's high 30s with lots of institutions. No idea about nations.
Here's a trick question, Ken. Why did RE collapse in 08-09?
Is RE fraudulent or a scam?
Better not..... I've been shorting the hell outta em for last 2 weeks. just took profits and recycled into MORE shorts today. Tripled down baby! Down DOWN down!
Aiming for 4800-4900 S&P.How ironic that as were debating all this POW it kicks off....
Now I'm starting to look back over past 3-4 weeks asking self what it is that I sniffed out that gave me this instinct to get uber defensive in things. Maybe it was luck, but maybe there was more in the signals that i subconsciously read and just knew.
And I did. I got UBER defensive. I liquidated all crypto, I had never done that in all the years not once ever. And I liquidated 30% of portfolios. And i started focusing on shorts vs going long. I removed ALL long plays, and that's normally my "jam".
My gut tells me this is gonna get bloody, mighty bloody.
I am just hopeful it reflects in 10yr bond and we could see 5% mortgage finance again here soon. That would be a silver lining for sure.
Bessent's hoping for that, too. In regards to the 10 year yield.
Which is why the blood bath doesn't halt, unless trade wars go our direction entirely.
Short prompt, long the curve is the play I believe & set up like that here for good. - Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes1y
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This will be a chopy ride, but down we go.Quote from @James Hamling:
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VG Jason are you buying the dip today? TSLA also on sale, down 15%. Who wants to make a bet that Elon comes up with some new fake product to hype the stock price up again this week. I’ll bet extra that the new shiny object is AI-related.Quote from @V.G Jason:
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I was waiting for this type of response.Quote from @Ken M.:
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apologies niece not daughter in law....getting old.Quote from @V.G Jason:
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@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever.
It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever.
I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too.
I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid.
When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks.
The new shiny toy is ai.
Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).
People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world.In just the last 5 days BTC has ranged in value from a high of $94,380.26 too a low of $81,157.32.
BTC is the very definition of volatile.
No business can humanly exist selling say a loaf of bread on Monday at one value, and come Friday when they go to reorder items to produce more bread, 10% of the sale $ they took in has evaporated into thin air.
And that's just in 5 days. Real moves.
The only reason 85% of people were on the BTC and crypto "train" was because it was going UP in value. Just like NFT's. Just like Tulips had long before.
Now it's rhetoric and assorted other hype to keep the hopeium alive. Because all who have leveraged into it know the fade is running out of runway.
As people get tired of it, don't see parabolic growth and profits, the shine is wearing off and people will sell and move on to what is current, shiny and with prospects of parabolic growth and profits ie ai.
As people sell BTC value goes down. Because it's value is based on NOTHING, literally. It's based on people holding and buying it.
So as it flatlines as it is, sentiment of it coming down grows as it is, selling takes hold and as it sells value drops reinforcing the downward movement and decisions to sell. And a downward spiral begins.
AMC & GME was little different. People chasing rainbows of massive profits. Than bag holders holding out on hopeium. But as time passes more and more wake up to the reality that the rainbows are long gone and 100% annual returns are fantasy but 50% losses are real.
It's the Gold Rush mentality. or better said, a Pump-n-dump. BTC and crypto is just one with some longer track to it than others given the criminal utility of it all. Great if your an international arms smuggler, not so great for a 50-something Jane/John Doe.
It was fun while it lasted, I'm over it now and onto playing ai. Selling Put's, taking leaps, selling calls, making $ 4-ways on market movements.
And continuing to do Real Estate, good-ole-reliable.
Why waste time on a literal gamble of BTC when it's at bizonkers high prices?
It's called buy low n sell high, not buy high and pray for inhuman additional astronomical highs.
Government promised...... Yeah well they been promising me peace on earth, clean water, clear skies, low tax's and all the other oh-so-good for long as I can remember.
Words hype and hopes.
I operate on facts, math and certainty.
That's very appropriate vol for BTC; VTI and QQQ were 3.5-4% negative in 5d and range quite strong too. Comparatively, that vol for BTC is quite normal. We've seen way bigger vol swings for BTC so not sure that's the point I'd make against it.
BTC vol will tighten once there's more adoption. That's proven given the fact we had significantly more drawdowns and significantly more often when less were invested. Just to give you a vol comparison in the last 10 years Nvidia has had 2 50% drawdowns. There's risk to everything. Given 10 years ago BTC was a fraction of what it's worth now percentage based draw downs are a bit misled given absolute value differential.
BTC adoption has gone institutional, prior it was emerging markets and little retail. It's hard to call it pump & dump now.
BTC's biggest argument is it's a threat to the USD, and a savior for emerging markets. For that reason, BTC will continue to yield up to the right but also correct more harshly than any other asset class. Like I said in a previous post, this correction and perhaps recession that will take place will be quite devastating for BTC, but long-term BTC holders or maximalists will yield the most advantageous.
Oops."Recent and significant crypto hacks include the Bybit exchange hack on February 21, 2025, where nearly $1.5 billion worth of ether (ETH) was stolen, and a North Korean hack in March 2025 that stole $1.5 billion in cryptocurrency, making it the largest crypto hack on record according to the FBI.65
North Korean hackers have been increasingly active in the crypto space, stealing approximately $660.5 million across 20 incidents in 2023 and $1.34 billion across 47 incidents in 2024, marking a 102.88% rise in value stolen."
Show me you don't understand anything at all any more clear, Ken.
Bybit didn't hack "Ethereum". They hacked SAFE Wallet. Bybit was too cheap to purchase extra security (measures)--left UI systems as is & not enhanced. So again, it's user error and storage.
In laymen terms, this is like a scammer sending you a text to log in to confirm your AMEX details. You do, and they get access to steal funds. No other security measures. Did your USD get hacked? Or did AMEX get hacked? And are you the vulnerability or is USD?
Unfortunately, retorts like yours show that compete lack of knowledge & understanding.This is what is coined "SPIN".
Look it's simple.
For long crypto sold itself as SAFE, secure, even claiming for many years to be SAFER than current in use systems.
Crypto even slogan'd on anonymity.
If you have $ at a bank, and bank calls saying "sorry half your moneys gone, it was stolen" do you care HOW the thieves stole it? Does it matter HOW it was done? No, what matters is you thought it was safe, it was stolen, so now your sense of safety and security is GONE.
How NOT safe is crypto? I can sum it up in 1 word: WILLOW....
Every masters degree/ Phd level data scientist and computer engineer I know has exited crypto since the confirmation with WILLOW. ALL OF THEM, 100%.
For those who don't know or understand, WILLOW is the breakthrough in computing that is taking ai effectively from the era of the horse & buggy straight to nuclear propulsion.
And that analogy is even far too weak a comparison. It's more like from caveman too spaceman. Yeah, it's THAT big a leap.
So take an ai capable of running every cryptographic permutation in existence, in an hour. It can solve mathematical problems that would take conventional super computers billions upon billions of years, and do it in seconds.
Effectively, there is no such thing as data security anymore. All codes, all that jazz, DONE. All it requires is one with hardware access and the desire to implement it for such.
In other words, N.Korea, Iran, RU, etc etc etc.....
You will see crypto heists parabolically increase THIS YEAR, head my words, this is inevitable.
1) Bybit hack had nothing to do with QC. 100% to do with security. There's no spin here, if you're saying I am spinning it in a different like point #2 then sure but I never did that. Nor did I ever subscribe to it.
2) Don't care what crypto "slogan'd" itself for. I just take it for what it is. Again, I don't parrot and form my own thesis. If someone thought they'd be anonymous, they needed to verify that then engage in illegal trades because someone told them it was anonymous. You'd trust your drug dealer to tell you how to operate? Give me a break.
3) Willow is google's QC chip. Go get long GOOGL or long quantum ETFs. It is not inversely related to BTC and Blockchain's health. FYI there's more of a threat to Willow than there is to Nvidia Blackwell on the horizon-- not advice just a note.Willow is a weak, kind of amateur answer to why BTC will fail. As this has been a material sight on the horizon-- notice I said sight not obstacle--for some time as well as some other QCs. Willow is also nowhere near a threat to cryptography; Google will admit that.
Anyone at the institutional level has underwrote this risk and has not found it tangible. Anyone at the institutional level that's against BTC has bet on this and realized it's a quite a way from any recognition or realization. I don't know one that hasn't that we've conversed with, along with other Chinese chips like Zucho or distantly down Majorana among others.
For the people that actually are in the know with institutions that are heavily against BTC and heavily PRO the easiest way for me to summarize the threat of quantum computing is that it's way easier to develop resistant forks on the blockchain than to get QC scalable.
That's the general consensus among some of the real smart money pro & anti BTC. There's one reputationally aggressive fund, if not the most aggressive, that's tried to up the ante in QC to create this as they believe it's a threat to USD-- I know you don't-- that even admits it's a far larger reach than the solution for the blockchain fixing itself via latency, soft forks, etc.
You do realize if QC becomes scalable and defeats any fork attempt or latency attempt to a blockchain, then all digital security is at risk. A lazy answer for sure, but definitely a point to note. It means your communications, local bank, etc., all at risk.
Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure.
Another retribute against QC against blockchain is there's PQC(post quantum cryptography) & QSC(quantum-safe-cryptography) which is already advancing faster than QC and faster than your local massive banks at creating resistance to their own security. And what happens if more adoption appears at the BTC level? Then, you'll see increased efforts of penetrating it but also saving it.
Again-- IF, THEN.
You're missing the forest for the trees.
This is spinning out down a rabbit hole that all of about 7 people on BP will comprehend, lol.
Short version is; the vast majority of people have no comprehension of nor do they want to fully know or comprehend all of the details. They want there money to be safe, simple and easy.
They earn $___, it shows up in an account, they go buy ___, know the price, simple life.
When they hear of this hack, that heist, this exploit etc. it scares them plain n simple.
And crypto won't work if 90% of people fear the use of it.
BTC value is set by usership. Less users = less market value.
It's shine is already wearing off. Will diehards such as yourself keep in, sure, of course. But reality is at least 50% in BTC today are not the ilk of yourself. There novices at best, and most just blindly holding something because it's value held promise of making them $. Lot's of $.
Burst that perception bubble, and watch those masses of novice exit. As they are literally today. I in one of my BTC chat's just read countless persons say "WTF is all this $ going from people selling????".
Well, guess who IS green today? Remember what I wrote before? O, Realty Income Corp. They are UP today, as so much else is gushing red all over the market. F Ford was up now down 0.35% as COIN is down (OOF-DAH) 17%.......
I warned, I said you WILL see this happen and happen very soon. I didn't expect it the next day, lol, but I did call it. I even called where some of the $ would go, which is exactly what it's doing.
Maybe you missed it, but I put it in bold again.
"Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure."
It will scare some folks, but it's not the end of the journey for BTC. Just like SBF/FTX scared tons of folks, it still came back. FWIW, I got into BTC as an allocation after Mt Gox. That did not scare me, it's actually where I started to educate myself. And actually where some of the largest investors came in, too. Little history will show some of the largest institutional players(as individuals not on the behalf of institutions) jumped in also in mid 2014-early 2015.There's no missing the forest for the trees here-- we believe the same outcome for most assets(in the short term). We'll continue to disagree on the (long term) outcome of Bitcoin and that's fine. We see it in a binary fold; you see the headwinds as the reason it goes to 0, I see the headwinds as opportunities to buy. Time will tell.
I also said I am not a diehard or maximalist, I just believe the mechanism has a lot of rumors and little facts circulating around it. Like anonymity, and other ********.
But to go back to the how & why part-- it's leverage. It's not people selling BTC to buy Ford or O.
The entire market has/had too much of expectations and engaged in too much leverage. @Chris Seveney and I have been saying this for along time and even joked about whose more cynical/pessimistic about it. In that other locked thread, @Henry Clark and I were saying there'll be a massive drawdown on equities.
They're not selling BTC to buy Ford, they're selling BTC because they are overleveraged & expectations are missing because everything is pricing for perfection.
And I mean everything is pricing for perfection;
Houses are priced to date the rate, marry the house like some folks spew. That changed the valuation and folks are compromised with their monthly payment. Some are underwater with even higher rates when agents told them to wait till 2025. Good luck. There's little liquidity here so it's usually the last fall.
Equities were priced for perfect earnings, any beat but not significantly higher is a net negative. We're seeing that reckoning begin now.
Crypto stormed 40-80% higher post trump presidency based off the premise of a pro-crypto president with little tangible strategy on how and what it'll be to get there. They bought the talk, not the walk. Unfortunately, they bought a giant share of that gain with leverage.
They're not selling BTC to buy Ford or O. Such a ridiculous take, they are selling BTC cause they are overleveraged. Just like they're selling mega cap and tech. Too much expectations and too much leverage.
And like I said before, go identify where the leverage is. The most right now is BTC, it does not mean it's dead when it gets pounded. It just means it'll get pounded.
"Any leverage in any market is going to radically flip on it's head. Identify where that is, and you found the opportunity.In America, it's almost every market. So all NAV in every field will take a circumstantial hit."
Burned by Crypto, Built by Real Estate: My Journey from Rock Bottom to 10+ Deals/Year
https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/55/topics/1234436-burne...
"Then the crypto crash hit, and we lost 90% of our funds."You're just proving my point about buying what falls due to overlevegage.
Late 2022, I bought more. They sold and realized a large loss.
Identify the leverage, and buy the fall. You're just exposing folks who are **** at understanding it and one's who've made a career in it.
Go check where BTC traded late 2022 and it's current price. BTC, like other assets, need to be held for some term. Go check returns from late 2022 vs RE, not to say this will also be the trend but since you are asking for it. Take a look.
This is also my point James, yes folks like this guy panic sell and life is "ruined". You're not wrong about that, I just think the support bid & participants are not as weak as you suspect. 2022 was $12k expectations, $16k real, no institutions. Today I think it's high 30s with lots of institutions. No idea about nations.
Here's a trick question, Ken. Why did RE collapse in 08-09?
Is RE fraudulent or a scam?
Better not..... I've been shorting the hell outta em for last 2 weeks. just took profits and recycled into MORE shorts today. Tripled down baby! Down DOWN down!
Aiming for 4800-4900 S&P.How ironic that as were debating all this POW it kicks off....
Now I'm starting to look back over past 3-4 weeks asking self what it is that I sniffed out that gave me this instinct to get uber defensive in things. Maybe it was luck, but maybe there was more in the signals that i subconsciously read and just knew.
And I did. I got UBER defensive. I liquidated all crypto, I had never done that in all the years not once ever. And I liquidated 30% of portfolios. And i started focusing on shorts vs going long. I removed ALL long plays, and that's normally my "jam".
My gut tells me this is gonna get bloody, mighty bloody.
I am just hopeful it reflects in 10yr bond and we could see 5% mortgage finance again here soon. That would be a silver lining for sure.
Bessent's hoping for that, too. In regards to the 10 year yield.
Which is why the blood bath doesn't halt, unless trade wars go our direction entirely.
Short prompt, long the curve is the play I believe & set up like that here for good.I thought it a bit of a "crazy" extreme theory, tank the market to create all these catalyst to force significant drops in interest rate so can refinance the National Dept before (I think it's June is the deadline) and save literally billions upon billions upon billions.
Than pedal to the medal for growth there after.
Seemed really koo-koo buuutttt..... it's got a kind of brilliant strategy too it to. It does make sense in a strategic manner.
And than I recently heard Trump speaking and mentioned how weird the USA vision is vs China. Where China thinks in 100yr terms for their society and actions and the US think is quarters. He isn't wrong, our ADD focus for planning doesn't lend to great long term results.
It got me thinking if he's aligning more with the LT focus and strategy and F the "instant" micro-time...... Ok, now I really am coming round to thinking this really could be the desired intent.
When debt service on national debt is more than the budget for national defense, yeah, shaving off some interest points holds a heck of a lot of benefits to it LT, even if cost is a short term roll-over in markets.
IDK, we will see.
- 1yV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
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This will be a chopy ride, but down we go.Quote from @James Hamling:
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VG Jason are you buying the dip today? TSLA also on sale, down 15%. Who wants to make a bet that Elon comes up with some new fake product to hype the stock price up again this week. I’ll bet extra that the new shiny object is AI-related.Quote from @V.G Jason:
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I was waiting for this type of response.Quote from @Ken M.:
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apologies niece not daughter in law....getting old.Quote from @V.G Jason:
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@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever.
It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever.
I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too.
I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid.
When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks.
The new shiny toy is ai.
Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).
People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world.In just the last 5 days BTC has ranged in value from a high of $94,380.26 too a low of $81,157.32.
BTC is the very definition of volatile.
No business can humanly exist selling say a loaf of bread on Monday at one value, and come Friday when they go to reorder items to produce more bread, 10% of the sale $ they took in has evaporated into thin air.
And that's just in 5 days. Real moves.
The only reason 85% of people were on the BTC and crypto "train" was because it was going UP in value. Just like NFT's. Just like Tulips had long before.
Now it's rhetoric and assorted other hype to keep the hopeium alive. Because all who have leveraged into it know the fade is running out of runway.
As people get tired of it, don't see parabolic growth and profits, the shine is wearing off and people will sell and move on to what is current, shiny and with prospects of parabolic growth and profits ie ai.
As people sell BTC value goes down. Because it's value is based on NOTHING, literally. It's based on people holding and buying it.
So as it flatlines as it is, sentiment of it coming down grows as it is, selling takes hold and as it sells value drops reinforcing the downward movement and decisions to sell. And a downward spiral begins.
AMC & GME was little different. People chasing rainbows of massive profits. Than bag holders holding out on hopeium. But as time passes more and more wake up to the reality that the rainbows are long gone and 100% annual returns are fantasy but 50% losses are real.
It's the Gold Rush mentality. or better said, a Pump-n-dump. BTC and crypto is just one with some longer track to it than others given the criminal utility of it all. Great if your an international arms smuggler, not so great for a 50-something Jane/John Doe.
It was fun while it lasted, I'm over it now and onto playing ai. Selling Put's, taking leaps, selling calls, making $ 4-ways on market movements.
And continuing to do Real Estate, good-ole-reliable.
Why waste time on a literal gamble of BTC when it's at bizonkers high prices?
It's called buy low n sell high, not buy high and pray for inhuman additional astronomical highs.
Government promised...... Yeah well they been promising me peace on earth, clean water, clear skies, low tax's and all the other oh-so-good for long as I can remember.
Words hype and hopes.
I operate on facts, math and certainty.
That's very appropriate vol for BTC; VTI and QQQ were 3.5-4% negative in 5d and range quite strong too. Comparatively, that vol for BTC is quite normal. We've seen way bigger vol swings for BTC so not sure that's the point I'd make against it.
BTC vol will tighten once there's more adoption. That's proven given the fact we had significantly more drawdowns and significantly more often when less were invested. Just to give you a vol comparison in the last 10 years Nvidia has had 2 50% drawdowns. There's risk to everything. Given 10 years ago BTC was a fraction of what it's worth now percentage based draw downs are a bit misled given absolute value differential.
BTC adoption has gone institutional, prior it was emerging markets and little retail. It's hard to call it pump & dump now.
BTC's biggest argument is it's a threat to the USD, and a savior for emerging markets. For that reason, BTC will continue to yield up to the right but also correct more harshly than any other asset class. Like I said in a previous post, this correction and perhaps recession that will take place will be quite devastating for BTC, but long-term BTC holders or maximalists will yield the most advantageous.
Oops."Recent and significant crypto hacks include the Bybit exchange hack on February 21, 2025, where nearly $1.5 billion worth of ether (ETH) was stolen, and a North Korean hack in March 2025 that stole $1.5 billion in cryptocurrency, making it the largest crypto hack on record according to the FBI.65
North Korean hackers have been increasingly active in the crypto space, stealing approximately $660.5 million across 20 incidents in 2023 and $1.34 billion across 47 incidents in 2024, marking a 102.88% rise in value stolen."
Show me you don't understand anything at all any more clear, Ken.
Bybit didn't hack "Ethereum". They hacked SAFE Wallet. Bybit was too cheap to purchase extra security (measures)--left UI systems as is & not enhanced. So again, it's user error and storage.
In laymen terms, this is like a scammer sending you a text to log in to confirm your AMEX details. You do, and they get access to steal funds. No other security measures. Did your USD get hacked? Or did AMEX get hacked? And are you the vulnerability or is USD?
Unfortunately, retorts like yours show that compete lack of knowledge & understanding.This is what is coined "SPIN".
Look it's simple.
For long crypto sold itself as SAFE, secure, even claiming for many years to be SAFER than current in use systems.
Crypto even slogan'd on anonymity.
If you have $ at a bank, and bank calls saying "sorry half your moneys gone, it was stolen" do you care HOW the thieves stole it? Does it matter HOW it was done? No, what matters is you thought it was safe, it was stolen, so now your sense of safety and security is GONE.
How NOT safe is crypto? I can sum it up in 1 word: WILLOW....
Every masters degree/ Phd level data scientist and computer engineer I know has exited crypto since the confirmation with WILLOW. ALL OF THEM, 100%.
For those who don't know or understand, WILLOW is the breakthrough in computing that is taking ai effectively from the era of the horse & buggy straight to nuclear propulsion.
And that analogy is even far too weak a comparison. It's more like from caveman too spaceman. Yeah, it's THAT big a leap.
So take an ai capable of running every cryptographic permutation in existence, in an hour. It can solve mathematical problems that would take conventional super computers billions upon billions of years, and do it in seconds.
Effectively, there is no such thing as data security anymore. All codes, all that jazz, DONE. All it requires is one with hardware access and the desire to implement it for such.
In other words, N.Korea, Iran, RU, etc etc etc.....
You will see crypto heists parabolically increase THIS YEAR, head my words, this is inevitable.
1) Bybit hack had nothing to do with QC. 100% to do with security. There's no spin here, if you're saying I am spinning it in a different like point #2 then sure but I never did that. Nor did I ever subscribe to it.
2) Don't care what crypto "slogan'd" itself for. I just take it for what it is. Again, I don't parrot and form my own thesis. If someone thought they'd be anonymous, they needed to verify that then engage in illegal trades because someone told them it was anonymous. You'd trust your drug dealer to tell you how to operate? Give me a break.
3) Willow is google's QC chip. Go get long GOOGL or long quantum ETFs. It is not inversely related to BTC and Blockchain's health. FYI there's more of a threat to Willow than there is to Nvidia Blackwell on the horizon-- not advice just a note.Willow is a weak, kind of amateur answer to why BTC will fail. As this has been a material sight on the horizon-- notice I said sight not obstacle--for some time as well as some other QCs. Willow is also nowhere near a threat to cryptography; Google will admit that.
Anyone at the institutional level has underwrote this risk and has not found it tangible. Anyone at the institutional level that's against BTC has bet on this and realized it's a quite a way from any recognition or realization. I don't know one that hasn't that we've conversed with, along with other Chinese chips like Zucho or distantly down Majorana among others.
For the people that actually are in the know with institutions that are heavily against BTC and heavily PRO the easiest way for me to summarize the threat of quantum computing is that it's way easier to develop resistant forks on the blockchain than to get QC scalable.
That's the general consensus among some of the real smart money pro & anti BTC. There's one reputationally aggressive fund, if not the most aggressive, that's tried to up the ante in QC to create this as they believe it's a threat to USD-- I know you don't-- that even admits it's a far larger reach than the solution for the blockchain fixing itself via latency, soft forks, etc.
You do realize if QC becomes scalable and defeats any fork attempt or latency attempt to a blockchain, then all digital security is at risk. A lazy answer for sure, but definitely a point to note. It means your communications, local bank, etc., all at risk.
Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure.
Another retribute against QC against blockchain is there's PQC(post quantum cryptography) & QSC(quantum-safe-cryptography) which is already advancing faster than QC and faster than your local massive banks at creating resistance to their own security. And what happens if more adoption appears at the BTC level? Then, you'll see increased efforts of penetrating it but also saving it.
Again-- IF, THEN.
You're missing the forest for the trees.
This is spinning out down a rabbit hole that all of about 7 people on BP will comprehend, lol.
Short version is; the vast majority of people have no comprehension of nor do they want to fully know or comprehend all of the details. They want there money to be safe, simple and easy.
They earn $___, it shows up in an account, they go buy ___, know the price, simple life.
When they hear of this hack, that heist, this exploit etc. it scares them plain n simple.
And crypto won't work if 90% of people fear the use of it.
BTC value is set by usership. Less users = less market value.
It's shine is already wearing off. Will diehards such as yourself keep in, sure, of course. But reality is at least 50% in BTC today are not the ilk of yourself. There novices at best, and most just blindly holding something because it's value held promise of making them $. Lot's of $.
Burst that perception bubble, and watch those masses of novice exit. As they are literally today. I in one of my BTC chat's just read countless persons say "WTF is all this $ going from people selling????".
Well, guess who IS green today? Remember what I wrote before? O, Realty Income Corp. They are UP today, as so much else is gushing red all over the market. F Ford was up now down 0.35% as COIN is down (OOF-DAH) 17%.......
I warned, I said you WILL see this happen and happen very soon. I didn't expect it the next day, lol, but I did call it. I even called where some of the $ would go, which is exactly what it's doing.
Maybe you missed it, but I put it in bold again.
"Another thing is QC will penetrate re-used addresses-- meaning if you're doing isolated withdrawals or single address one's--way less at risk. But adoption/belief will mitigated if you see other compromises, for sure."
It will scare some folks, but it's not the end of the journey for BTC. Just like SBF/FTX scared tons of folks, it still came back. FWIW, I got into BTC as an allocation after Mt Gox. That did not scare me, it's actually where I started to educate myself. And actually where some of the largest investors came in, too. Little history will show some of the largest institutional players(as individuals not on the behalf of institutions) jumped in also in mid 2014-early 2015.There's no missing the forest for the trees here-- we believe the same outcome for most assets(in the short term). We'll continue to disagree on the (long term) outcome of Bitcoin and that's fine. We see it in a binary fold; you see the headwinds as the reason it goes to 0, I see the headwinds as opportunities to buy. Time will tell.
I also said I am not a diehard or maximalist, I just believe the mechanism has a lot of rumors and little facts circulating around it. Like anonymity, and other ********.
But to go back to the how & why part-- it's leverage. It's not people selling BTC to buy Ford or O.
The entire market has/had too much of expectations and engaged in too much leverage. @Chris Seveney and I have been saying this for along time and even joked about whose more cynical/pessimistic about it. In that other locked thread, @Henry Clark and I were saying there'll be a massive drawdown on equities.
They're not selling BTC to buy Ford, they're selling BTC because they are overleveraged & expectations are missing because everything is pricing for perfection.
And I mean everything is pricing for perfection;
Houses are priced to date the rate, marry the house like some folks spew. That changed the valuation and folks are compromised with their monthly payment. Some are underwater with even higher rates when agents told them to wait till 2025. Good luck. There's little liquidity here so it's usually the last fall.
Equities were priced for perfect earnings, any beat but not significantly higher is a net negative. We're seeing that reckoning begin now.
Crypto stormed 40-80% higher post trump presidency based off the premise of a pro-crypto president with little tangible strategy on how and what it'll be to get there. They bought the talk, not the walk. Unfortunately, they bought a giant share of that gain with leverage.
They're not selling BTC to buy Ford or O. Such a ridiculous take, they are selling BTC cause they are overleveraged. Just like they're selling mega cap and tech. Too much expectations and too much leverage.
And like I said before, go identify where the leverage is. The most right now is BTC, it does not mean it's dead when it gets pounded. It just means it'll get pounded.
"Any leverage in any market is going to radically flip on it's head. Identify where that is, and you found the opportunity.In America, it's almost every market. So all NAV in every field will take a circumstantial hit."
Burned by Crypto, Built by Real Estate: My Journey from Rock Bottom to 10+ Deals/Year
https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/55/topics/1234436-burne...
"Then the crypto crash hit, and we lost 90% of our funds."You're just proving my point about buying what falls due to overlevegage.
Late 2022, I bought more. They sold and realized a large loss.
Identify the leverage, and buy the fall. You're just exposing folks who are **** at understanding it and one's who've made a career in it.
Go check where BTC traded late 2022 and it's current price. BTC, like other assets, need to be held for some term. Go check returns from late 2022 vs RE, not to say this will also be the trend but since you are asking for it. Take a look.
This is also my point James, yes folks like this guy panic sell and life is "ruined". You're not wrong about that, I just think the support bid & participants are not as weak as you suspect. 2022 was $12k expectations, $16k real, no institutions. Today I think it's high 30s with lots of institutions. No idea about nations.
Here's a trick question, Ken. Why did RE collapse in 08-09?
Is RE fraudulent or a scam?
Better not..... I've been shorting the hell outta em for last 2 weeks. just took profits and recycled into MORE shorts today. Tripled down baby! Down DOWN down!
Aiming for 4800-4900 S&P.How ironic that as were debating all this POW it kicks off....
Now I'm starting to look back over past 3-4 weeks asking self what it is that I sniffed out that gave me this instinct to get uber defensive in things. Maybe it was luck, but maybe there was more in the signals that i subconsciously read and just knew.
And I did. I got UBER defensive. I liquidated all crypto, I had never done that in all the years not once ever. And I liquidated 30% of portfolios. And i started focusing on shorts vs going long. I removed ALL long plays, and that's normally my "jam".
My gut tells me this is gonna get bloody, mighty bloody.
I am just hopeful it reflects in 10yr bond and we could see 5% mortgage finance again here soon. That would be a silver lining for sure.
Bessent's hoping for that, too. In regards to the 10 year yield.
Which is why the blood bath doesn't halt, unless trade wars go our direction entirely.
Short prompt, long the curve is the play I believe & set up like that here for good.I thought it a bit of a "crazy" extreme theory, tank the market to create all these catalyst to force significant drops in interest rate so can refinance the National Dept before (I think it's June is the deadline) and save literally billions upon billions upon billions.
Than pedal to the medal for growth there after.
Seemed really koo-koo buuutttt..... it's got a kind of brilliant strategy too it to. It does make sense in a strategic manner.
And than I recently heard Trump speaking and mentioned how weird the USA vision is vs China. Where China thinks in 100yr terms for their society and actions and the US think is quarters. He isn't wrong, our ADD focus for planning doesn't lend to great long term results.
It got me thinking if he's aligning more with the LT focus and strategy and F the "instant" micro-time...... Ok, now I really am coming round to thinking this really could be the desired intent.
When debt service on national debt is more than the budget for national defense, yeah, shaving off some interest points holds a heck of a lot of benefits to it LT, even if cost is a short term roll-over in markets.
IDK, we will see.
It's not crazy. It's austerity, too.
Tank the economy is just one possible outcome.
The other is external revenue and more fair trade for America to offset deficit and decrease Taxes.
It's all Bessent. He sees this and moves appropriately.
- 1yV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @Ken M.:
I guess you don't understand banking, but that's your problem, not mine.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Ken M.:
It doesn't matter who stole the money, it's stolen, gone, missing, kapupt. Interesting that you gloss over that.Quote from @V.G Jason:
I was waiting for this type of response.Quote from @Ken M.:
.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
apologies niece not daughter in law....getting old.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever.
It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever.
I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too.
I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid.
When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks.
The new shiny toy is ai.
Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).
People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world.In just the last 5 days BTC has ranged in value from a high of $94,380.26 too a low of $81,157.32.
BTC is the very definition of volatile.
No business can humanly exist selling say a loaf of bread on Monday at one value, and come Friday when they go to reorder items to produce more bread, 10% of the sale $ they took in has evaporated into thin air.
And that's just in 5 days. Real moves.
The only reason 85% of people were on the BTC and crypto "train" was because it was going UP in value. Just like NFT's. Just like Tulips had long before.
Now it's rhetoric and assorted other hype to keep the hopeium alive. Because all who have leveraged into it know the fade is running out of runway.
As people get tired of it, don't see parabolic growth and profits, the shine is wearing off and people will sell and move on to what is current, shiny and with prospects of parabolic growth and profits ie ai.
As people sell BTC value goes down. Because it's value is based on NOTHING, literally. It's based on people holding and buying it.
So as it flatlines as it is, sentiment of it coming down grows as it is, selling takes hold and as it sells value drops reinforcing the downward movement and decisions to sell. And a downward spiral begins.
AMC & GME was little different. People chasing rainbows of massive profits. Than bag holders holding out on hopeium. But as time passes more and more wake up to the reality that the rainbows are long gone and 100% annual returns are fantasy but 50% losses are real.
It's the Gold Rush mentality. or better said, a Pump-n-dump. BTC and crypto is just one with some longer track to it than others given the criminal utility of it all. Great if your an international arms smuggler, not so great for a 50-something Jane/John Doe.
It was fun while it lasted, I'm over it now and onto playing ai. Selling Put's, taking leaps, selling calls, making $ 4-ways on market movements.
And continuing to do Real Estate, good-ole-reliable.
Why waste time on a literal gamble of BTC when it's at bizonkers high prices?
It's called buy low n sell high, not buy high and pray for inhuman additional astronomical highs.
Government promised...... Yeah well they been promising me peace on earth, clean water, clear skies, low tax's and all the other oh-so-good for long as I can remember.
Words hype and hopes.
I operate on facts, math and certainty.
That's very appropriate vol for BTC; VTI and QQQ were 3.5-4% negative in 5d and range quite strong too. Comparatively, that vol for BTC is quite normal. We've seen way bigger vol swings for BTC so not sure that's the point I'd make against it.
BTC vol will tighten once there's more adoption. That's proven given the fact we had significantly more drawdowns and significantly more often when less were invested. Just to give you a vol comparison in the last 10 years Nvidia has had 2 50% drawdowns. There's risk to everything. Given 10 years ago BTC was a fraction of what it's worth now percentage based draw downs are a bit misled given absolute value differential.
BTC adoption has gone institutional, prior it was emerging markets and little retail. It's hard to call it pump & dump now.
BTC's biggest argument is it's a threat to the USD, and a savior for emerging markets. For that reason, BTC will continue to yield up to the right but also correct more harshly than any other asset class. Like I said in a previous post, this correction and perhaps recession that will take place will be quite devastating for BTC, but long-term BTC holders or maximalists will yield the most advantageous.
Oops."Recent and significant crypto hacks include the Bybit exchange hack on February 21, 2025, where nearly $1.5 billion worth of ether (ETH) was stolen, and a North Korean hack in March 2025 that stole $1.5 billion in cryptocurrency, making it the largest crypto hack on record according to the FBI.65
North Korean hackers have been increasingly active in the crypto space, stealing approximately $660.5 million across 20 incidents in 2023 and $1.34 billion across 47 incidents in 2024, marking a 102.88% rise in value stolen."
Show me you don't understand anything at all any more clear, Ken.
Bybit didn't hack "Ethereum". They hacked SAFE Wallet. Bybit was too cheap to purchase extra security (measures)--left UI systems as is & not enhanced. So again, it's user error and storage.
In laymen terms, this is like a scammer sending you a text to log in to confirm your AMEX details. You do, and they get access to steal funds. No other security measures. Did your USD get hacked? Or did AMEX get hacked? And are you the vulnerability or is USD?
Unfortunately, retorts like yours show that compete lack of knowledge & understanding.Let's try this another way because you have reading comprehension issues.
No **** the money is gone. The question is why? User error & storage, like I've mentioned several times. If my AMEX got compromised is it the USD's fault?
Money is gone, explain that.
The answer is no, it's my fault and my lack/AMEX lack of security protocols. This isn't rocket science, I am sure you're capable of understanding this.
And before you harp on AMEX, given your lack of understanding this is globally an issue with all providers. Zelle, venmo, paypal more domestically, that money isn't coming back. So again, underlying question is my USD at fault? Or is it me and the provider at fault?
if someone hacks my bank account and steals my money, the bank takes the loss, not me. The bank makes me whole. If not, the regulators shut them down.
If my crypto gets hacked, it doesn't matter who hacks it, it's gone. There is no one to make me whole and crypto won't be shut down. Totally different. There is no one to turn to if crypto goes bad. And it goes bad plenty.Didn't realize there was a post here that illustrates this beautifully, and gives you some food for thought. Again the underlying asset is not a scam, it's always usually the user, lender, some associated party or the infrastructure. Not the asset.
Like I said in a previous post.
Banks do not refund scams, they refund fraud.
Big difference.
He wired money over to a scammer allegedly, and likely via BOA. It's on the user-- not BOA's fault, not USD's fault.
I know how banking works. The money is gone, where is BOA making them whole? Who does he turn to? IF you get the money back, consider yourself fortunate much like ByBit users getting their ETH back. - Investor · Get yourself trained before doing something inadvisable. · Member since 2024 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes1y
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Ken M.:
At least In Tulipmainia, you wound up with tulips when the whole ponzi scheme collapsed
With Crypto you get bits, try to plant that
Falls out of favor, can't buy groceries, power loss - can't transact, falls down a dark hole, disappears and disappoints
*******************************************************************************************************
Beautiful to look at, comes in a variety of colors and shapes, reproduces, doesn't need electricity, can be sold individually, universally understood, can't be hacked, can't be manipulated, can't all be stolen at once
I dunno, investing in the "crypto craze" or in tulips, hmmm tough choice. ;-)
- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes1y
Quote from @Ken M.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Ken M.:
At least In Tulipmainia, you wound up with tulips when the whole ponzi scheme collapsed
With Crypto you get bits, try to plant that
Falls out of favor, can't buy groceries, power loss - can't transact, falls down a dark hole, disappears and disappoints
*******************************************************************************************************
Beautiful to look at, comes in a variety of colors and shapes, reproduces, doesn't need electricity, can be sold individually, universally understood, can't be hacked, can't be manipulated, can't all be stolen at once
I dunno, investing in the "crypto craze" or in tulips, hmmm tough choice. ;-)
I don't necessarily disagree, BTC is dependent upon a power grid and internet existing.
Although if there were an event on level that is can either (a) take out the entire power grid for any duration (b) knock out the internet for a duration, or (c) fry most servers (ie significant EMP's)......
I think were all gonna have way bigger concerns than BTC, like WWIII or thermo-nuclear destruction or the invading N.Koreans or whatever that has made such epic calamity.
WOLVERINES!!!!
- Investor · Get yourself trained before doing something inadvisable. · Member since 2024 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes1y
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Ken M.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Ken M.:
At least In Tulipmainia, you wound up with tulips when the whole ponzi scheme collapsed
With Crypto you get bits, try to plant that
Falls out of favor, can't buy groceries, power loss - can't transact, falls down a dark hole, disappears and disappoints
*******************************************************************************************************
Beautiful to look at, comes in a variety of colors and shapes, reproduces, doesn't need electricity, can be sold individually, universally understood, can't be hacked, can't be manipulated, can't all be stolen at once
I dunno, investing in the "crypto craze" or in tulips, hmmm tough choice. ;-)
I don't necessarily disagree, BTC is dependent upon a power grid and internet existing.
Although if there were an event on level that is can either (a) take out the entire power grid for any duration (b) knock out the internet for a duration, or (c) fry most servers (ie significant EMP's)......
I think were all gonna have way bigger concerns than BTC, like WWIII or thermo-nuclear destruction or the invading N.Koreans or whatever that has made such epic calamity.
WOLVERINES!!!!
Yep. "way bigger concerns" ;-)
- Investor · Get yourself trained before doing something inadvisable. · Member since 2024 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes1y
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Ken M.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
To be sure, I distrust banks. That being said, one question I haven't had answered (because I haven't previously asked it ;-)
Once fully operational, that is, I can buy an ice cream cone anywhere in the US with an appropriate amount of Bitcoin, just slip my card to the vendor, how long will the transaction take to complete?
My very limited understanding (admittedly) is that everyone has a copy of all transactions in their "wallet" to verify there is no double paying and that each person has the correct amount remaining and is updated properly. I come from the tech world. I understand compute cycles, storage, redundancy and transfer speed. So, I expect that if everyone was using crypto for their everyday transactions, the servers necessary to handle the load, do not exist today. Latency becomes an issue.
- Investor · Austin, TX · Member since 2017 · 107 posts · 89 votes1y
Quote from @Ken M.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Ken M.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
To be sure, I distrust banks. That being said, one question I haven't had answered (because I haven't previously asked it ;-)
Once fully operational, that is, I can buy an ice cream cone anywhere in the US with an appropriate amount of Bitcoin, just slip my card to the vendor, how long will the transaction take to complete?
My very limited understanding (admittedly) is that everyone has a copy of all transactions in their "wallet" to verify there is no double paying and that each person has the correct amount remaining and is updated properly. I come from the tech world. I understand compute cycles, storage, redundancy and transfer speed. So, I expect that if everyone was using crypto for their everyday transactions, the servers necessary to handle the load, do not exist today. Latency becomes an issue.
Less so the latency (TXs hit mempool pretty much immediately and can be settled in 10 minutes or so) but more so the data would not be able to fit onto the blockchain for microtransactions. That being said, there are ways to scale Bitcoin via second layer technologies like lightning network that already work today pretty much instantly.
- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes1y
Quote from @Ken M.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Ken M.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
To be sure, I distrust banks. That being said, one question I haven't had answered (because I haven't previously asked it ;-)
Once fully operational, that is, I can buy an ice cream cone anywhere in the US with an appropriate amount of Bitcoin, just slip my card to the vendor, how long will the transaction take to complete?
My very limited understanding (admittedly) is that everyone has a copy of all transactions in their "wallet" to verify there is no double paying and that each person has the correct amount remaining and is updated properly. I come from the tech world. I understand compute cycles, storage, redundancy and transfer speed. So, I expect that if everyone was using crypto for their everyday transactions, the servers necessary to handle the load, do not exist today. Latency becomes an issue.
If half of people in US were using BTC for half there purchases...... est time for transaction would be about 15-20min...... lol.
BTC is simply not built to replace say VISA. BTC has a TPS of 7.
TPS - Transactions Per Second
Think of BTC more like your savings account.
But maybe you'd be buying your ice-cream with say SOL instead, who has a TPS up to 65,000
See that's the problem today with crypto adoption, in my opinion; it's still too complex and convoluted for the average person to have any interest in adopting.
Not to mention the swings in value. "Ok sir, here's your ice-cream, that will be 0.017 SOL's.... I mean 0.018...... nope 0.0165....... op wait a minute, nope just kidding 0.0175, er 0.015, quick hurry up and swi.... nope it's 0.017 again......."
Yeah-no thanks.
If crypto ever comes main stream for currency I am 1,000% certain it will be dollar backed "for stability" and controlled by the FED. 0% doubt in my mind.
And when it's issued it will come with a declaration that it is the ONLY authorized crypto as currency. Maybe they allow BTC to exist but no doubt at least 98% of the others will be exterminated.
And in large part I say good riddance to many of them.
But decentralized crypto will not be. Controlled via the big powers, without a doubt. How could they not, it's a multi-trillion dollar gun to the head, of course there going to keep there power matrix. It's childish to think it could play out any other way.
- Investor · Get yourself trained before doing something inadvisable. · Member since 2024 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes1yYou present a good characterization of the transaction. Funny. ;-)
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Ken M.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Ken M.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
To be sure, I distrust banks. That being said, one question I haven't had answered (because I haven't previously asked it ;-)
Once fully operational, that is, I can buy an ice cream cone anywhere in the US with an appropriate amount of Bitcoin, just slip my card to the vendor, how long will the transaction take to complete?
My very limited understanding (admittedly) is that everyone has a copy of all transactions in their "wallet" to verify there is no double paying and that each person has the correct amount remaining and is updated properly. I come from the tech world. I understand compute cycles, storage, redundancy and transfer speed. So, I expect that if everyone was using crypto for their everyday transactions, the servers necessary to handle the load, do not exist today. Latency becomes an issue.
If half of people in US were using BTC for half there purchases...... est time for transaction would be about 15-20min...... lol.
BTC is simply not built to replace say VISA. BTC has a TPS of 7.
TPS - Transactions Per Second
Think of BTC more like your savings account.
But maybe you'd be buying your ice-cream with say SOL instead, who has a TPS up to 65,000
See that's the problem today with crypto adoption, in my opinion; it's still too complex and convoluted for the average person to have any interest in adopting.
Not to mention the swings in value. "Ok sir, here's your ice-cream, that will be 0.017 SOL's.... I mean 0.018...... nope 0.0165....... op wait a minute, nope just kidding 0.0175, er 0.015, quick hurry up and swi.... nope it's 0.017 again......."
Yeah-no thanks.
If crypto ever comes main stream for currency I am 1,000% certain it will be dollar backed "for stability" and controlled by the FED. 0% doubt in my mind.
And when it's issued it will come with a declaration that it is the ONLY authorized crypto as currency. Maybe they allow BTC to exist but no doubt at least 98% of the others will be exterminated.
And in large part I say good riddance to many of them.
But decentralized crypto will not be. Controlled via the big powers, without a doubt. How could they not, it's a multi-trillion dollar gun to the head, of course there going to keep there power matrix. It's childish to think it could play out any other way.
- 9moJoe S.Pro MemberInvestor · San Antonio · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @V.G Jason:
apologies niece not daughter in law....getting old.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
@Steve K. I liquidated my entire crypto portfolio in January and I have 0-regrets, and 0-intentions of jumping back in any time soon, if ever.
It was always a speculative investment, investing on sentiment and a trend. Not once did I ever consider or view it as anything of any intrinsic or utilitarian value. Not once ever.
I was in crypto for years, flipping and trading. Again, gleefully out. And profitably too.
I consider myself rather informed on it. Nowhere near the 1% because honestly there all cult members high on hopeum and drunk on the kool-aid.
When I am paying for groceries and fuel with crypto, maybe. Until then, it's a shiny toy that's getting kinda old. No thanks.
The new shiny toy is ai.
Just bought my daughter-in-law a car strictly with bitcoin. This is with one of the most prestigious dealerships in Texas. And got her son a full sports outfit with crypto from a professional NBA franchise(same owners for the dealership & franchise).
People can disbelieve Bitcoin, etc., bottom line is emerging markets are usually correlated with higher population growth and desperate needs for infrastructure. With that comes a ray of hope for attaching to assets; bitcoin right now is the only tangible medium for that. Other forms of assets come with such steeper barrier entries coupled with devaluation of their current currency, it's very hard to resist this proof. Won't go deep and long in this, as I am not a fanatic but absolutely see the use case for it against currency. The US should view it as a threat to the dollar(and rightfully so), but to do that you need to get in front of it and not ban/eliminate it. It seems Trump's cabinet views it similarly in today's world.niece not daughter in law…
Well, since you are up to buying kinfolks cars, would you consider a truck? uncle Jason??🤣
- Handyman · Pittsburgh, PA · Member since 2018 · 5k+ posts · 13k+ votes1y
Basically, crypto seeks to rid governments of the ability to control their own money supply by making that money supply irrelevant.
Historically, governments (including the USA) have not responded well to this kind of threat to their power. The crypto boosters never seem to acknowledge this. They also have these rose-tinted views of the sorts of things that governments will do when squarely faced with an existential threat such as the one that cryptocurrency ultimately proposes.
Power is never innocent. No government will simply surrender or make any show of fighting fair when threatened to such a degree. They will take back their power, by fair means or, more likely, foul ones. It was true when it was whiskey, it was true when it was gold, it will be true (and far easier) when it's cryptocurrency, with except for public confidence and abstruse mathematics propping it up. It will be a far simpler matter to demonize cryptocurrency holders and make holding crypto unpatriotic and morally wrong than it was to murder moonshiners in Appalachia two hundred years ago or force upper-middle-class Americans to turn in all their domestic gold during the Great Depression. - 1yScott AllenBusiness MemberReal Estate Agent · Columbus, OH · Member since 2020 · 449 posts · 471 votes
@Steve K. Crypto prices are much more volatile and move much more quickly than real estate prices. I don't know what your real estate portfolio consist of, how you manage it, or what type of equity you have in it but, diversifying your investment strategies is never a bad thing to do. Instead of selling all of your real estate - consider selling the properties you don't care for or like as much - diversity that money into crypto/stocks that you've done your research on.I've made good money in crypto before. I liked it because it felt similar to gambling/little to no research with drunk luck just months later.
I personally think it's good to diversify your investments and not be too heavy in just one. You have to speculate. I would say with crypto investing, you should only invest what you're comfortable with losing.
- 1yJimmy LieuBusiness MemberReal Estate Agent · Columbus, OH · Member since 2019 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
Quote from @Steve K.:
The President Announced a Strategic Crypto Reserve consisting of ether, XRP, SOL, and Cardano/ADA. His son Eric said crypto is better than real estate for 2025. It seems like except for crypto, the economy is crashing. Should I sell my real estate and invest in crypto in 2025?
I have a deep 6 figure crypto portfolio and my advice is it is not for the feint of heart and it's completely night and day different from investing in real estate - they're not even in the same stratosphere! I would recommend diversifying as you should with any investments. Don't go all in on one type of investment - real estate, crypto, stocks, etc. You should buy some crypto but understand that it's a very risky investment and you should only risk what you can lose!
Jimmy Lieu, Red 1 Realty4.9119 Reviews - Severna Park, MD · Member since 2013 · 7k+ posts · 7k+ votes1y
If I cant see it , touch it , sleep in it , drive it , eat it ,drink it or understand it . I dont buy it .
- Real Estate Agent · Sisters, OR · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes1y
Good call if Eric Trump said buy it you can take it to the bank! I know you put up a tough front but deep down inside I knew you were all in for MAGA baby!
- 1ySteve K.Realtor · Boulder, CO · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 5k+ votesOP
Quote from @Eric Bilderback:
Good call if Eric Trump said buy it you can take it to the bank! I know you put up a tough front but deep down inside I knew you were all in for MAGA baby!
Hey if you can't beat 'em, might as well join in on the scam.
- Real Estate Agent · Sisters, OR · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes1y
Quote from @Steve K.:
Quote from @Eric Bilderback:
Good call if Eric Trump said buy it you can take it to the bank! I know you put up a tough front but deep down inside I knew you were all in for MAGA baby!
Hey if you can't beat 'em, might as well join in on the scam.
Because a million dead Ukrainians so Ukraine can become a NATO country on the border of Russia (just like America would be totally cool with Russia or China having a military alliance with Mexico totally reasonable), illegal immigrants welcomed by businesses and their paid for politicians to push labor costs down at the expense of poor Americans, and forcing kids and healthy people to take vaccines that don't work is totally not a scam. LOL.
- Member since 2024 · 162 posts · 232 votes1y
Quote from @Eric Bilderback:
Quote from @Steve K.:
Quote from @Eric Bilderback:
Good call if Eric Trump said buy it you can take it to the bank! I know you put up a tough front but deep down inside I knew you were all in for MAGA baby!
Hey if you can't beat 'em, might as well join in on the scam.
Because a million dead Ukrainians so Ukraine can become a NATO country on the border of Russia (just like America would be totally cool with Russia or China having a military alliance with Mexico totally reasonable), illegal immigrants welcomed by businesses and their paid for politicians to push labor costs down at the expense of poor Americans, and forcing kids and healthy people to take vaccines that don't work is totally not a scam. LOL.
How Many People Have Died in the Russia-Ukraine War? - Newsweek
this and other sources put numbers closer to 80k dead Ukrainian soldiers and 800k dead Russian soldiers, 10:1 ratio, and most of the 125 billion we have given to Ukraine comes back to us in form of weapons purchases from US defense contractors so local job growth, which supports local real estate markets. So dead Russians and higher NOI, that's a win win :) and no I don't feel bad for a country that has 1,700 Nukes targeting me and my family 24/7. - Real Estate Agent · Sisters, OR · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes1y
Quote from @Paul Azad:
Quote from @Eric Bilderback:
Quote from @Steve K.:
80k dead I don't think so. I disagree that dead Russian kids will help my kids, then wiping out a generation of Ukrainian kids to do it. I don't think that is as clever and wise as you think it is. If a property doesn't appreciate much because we aren't making as many bombs to drop on Russian's I'm more than good with that. Maybe we could put some of that money in South Chicago where kids need police protection to get to school, or at the Indian Reservation an hour or so from me where many kids don't even have shoes. Absurd to even argue killing people on the other side of the world is an economic benifit.
- Member since 2024 · 162 posts · 232 votes1y
from reading this thread, perhaps BiggerPockets can make a Columbus Ohio SFR token, on Solana architecture, then get President Cheeto to put it into the Strategic S#*^Coin Reserve with the others, then BOOM - we all Rich Biatch!!! 🤠
I think i'll just stick with quality CRE with good cap intermargin spreads.
- Investor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2013 · 8k+ posts · 10k+ votes1y
No leverage, no income, no tax advantages, virtually no regulation, and down 15% in the last 30 days? What’s not to love! Sell everything, pay all the taxes, and then invest in something with no intrinsic value. Especially considering you have an advantage over the average crypto investor. I’m not saying it’s waaay better than going to Vegas and betting on red or black, but it’s probably not waaaay worse. I wonder how much you could make posting a video of lighting a million $1 bills on fire.
I’m sure if you figure out how the average millionaire made their money it’s pry 70% real estate, 25% crypto and 5% everything else. This reminds me of the post a month ago by someone who was considering selling their real estate and switching to crypto “because it’s more stable…”. Do these people not own computers? Anyway, as long as you’re single, don’t have any dependents, can keep working to support yourself, it’s your money, go wild.
- Member since 2025 · 7 posts · 8 votes1y
I know a super MAGA person who spent lots of money buy $Trump and $Melania coins when they first came out. This is the last person I thought would hate this president. He now stronngly believes Trump belongs in prison. Make of it what you may. This president is the GREATEST mafia the world has ever known
- Lender · United States · Member since 2020 · 1k+ posts · 499 votes1y
People will always need a place to live. People won't always use crypto. Hell, it's 15 years old and less than 1% of transactions are with it.
Every time a crypto fanatic attacks me for my views on it, I ask the same question each time and they can't answer it: aside from the day trading aspect, when do you use crypto? Did you make your car payment with it? Do you buy gas with it?
It's been 15 years and less than 1% of business world wide accept it as a form of payment. It's a complete guessing game of an "investment".
- Lender · Seattle, WA · Member since 2017 · 118 posts · 161 votes1y
To this day, I do not understand why real estate people - in particular - shun and disparage crypto.
I say this, because assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana - while seemingly very different to real estate on the exterior - are in fact eerily similar to real estate from both a fundamental value and income potential overview.
Think of the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana blockchain networks as tertiary real estate markets in which population growth & employment / job growth is rapidly outpacing existing residential supply stock, plus new deliveries and proposed future developmemts. To contextualize, these trchnologies are being adopted by new users / wallets at a rate that is outpacing that of the internet, while the supply of existing tokens in circulating (plus new coins introduced to supply) are being gobbled up like hot cakes.
All the while, assets like ETH & SOL pay native dividend yields of 4-9% that are generated by organic, on-chain “gas fees” (IE - rents) paid by the users of said blockchain networks. What’s more, these yields are denominated in ETH & SOL (not dollars). IE - if you buy 100 ETH @ 4.00% staking reward yield (crypto terminology for dividend), you will earn 4 ETH per year, regardless of the current ETH price. This implies that if ETH appreciates in price due to increased adoption / demand, plus money supply inflation - your ETH staking reward yield ALSO increases. It would be as if you bought a 100 unit apartment complex that yielded 4 additional apartment units (4.00% physical multifamily unit yield) per year!
In addition - like real estate - crypto is highly sensitive to monetary policy and interest rates. As global M2 money supply increases (to service our government’s unsustainable debts) a portion of this M2 trickles down into risk assets - of which crypto is arguably the most sensitive. This is similar to real estate - in the sense that real estate prices (which are essentially leveraged interest rate bets) are highly sensitive to bond prices / yields, which are highly sensitive to global M2 money supply as well.
Lastly, many digital assets (crypto assets) have superior property rights and objectively harder supply schedules than most real estate asset classes do. If you self-custody your crypto assets via a hardware wallet, there is absolutely no way for the government, bad actors, etc to tax or steal your tokens unless you deliberately mess up your operational security or store your assets in a lazy fashion / on exchanges.
Government wants to tax you? Put your tokens on a hardware wallet USB, buy a plane ticket, move to a non-tax jurisdiction, and convert to local currency at current exchange rate. Best of luck freezing my assets. Bad actor wants to steal it? Good luck getting the 24-word seedphrase out of me, especially if you have a multi sig wallet or have fractured your seedphrase across different locations. Gold digger wife wants 50% of your net worth? Good luck with that court order.
You want to take your real estate with you? Bold strategy, Cotton! You want to ensure your county government won’t hike property taxes next year to cover their dubious spending habits? Lol good one! You decide to skip on your monthly loan payment, or property tax bill? Let’s see how long you “own” that real estate for after the bank / daddy government stops getting there vig. You want to spend zero money on maintenance, while simultaneously ensure that you can sell at top dollar in Year 5 of your 10-year hold? Child please.
As it relates to “hard money” characteristics, and whether or not you believe only 21 million bitcoin can ever be minted… this is when it becomes necessary to understand how basic blockchain technology works. Once you understand the basics of how proof-of-work / proof-of-stake blockchain consensus mechanisms work - then you will understand that these technologies GUARANTEES digital scarcity in a way that cannot be manipulated or interfered with by external parties and/or bad actors (namely - governments).
The lack of enthusiasm for crypto assets on this site I find - mainly - resides in the boomer RE investor demographic. The reason for this is simple. Boomers RE investors have made hilarious amounts of wealth in real estate over the last 40 years because 10-Year Treasury bond yields (and therefore - cap rates) have compressed from ~15% in the early 1980's to ~60bps in 2021. This has caused their asset prices to go parabolic, and has permitted even the least savvy RE investors to become insanely rich in ways that far exceed their investing prowess and/or intellect. All the while, these same boomer investors have been levered up to their eyeballs with 70-90% LTV/LTC mortgage debt THE WHOLE 40-YEAR RIDE. In the words of Steve Eisman from the Big Short… "They mistook leverage for genius". I am happy for them! But make no mistake, these RE returns have been more a result of being in the "right place / right time / right macroeconomic setup" than anything else, regardless of your self perceived operating prowess.The crypto asset class is not to be shunned and/or written off. Instead, it is an asset class that is worth investigating and understanding before blindly casting judgement. Be curious, do not get complacent in real estate just because the last 40 years have been (mathematically and objectively) a total cake walk from a macroeconomic & total return standpoint. Do not let your bias for RE color your judgement - especially if you are a boomer that by definition has never had to invest during a prolonged bear market in U.S. Treasury Bonds. All long term secular trends eventually come to an end.
- 1yJay HinrichsBusiness MemberReal Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
Quote from @Ian Stuart:
To this day, I do not understand why real estate people - in particular - shun and disparage crypto.
I say this, because assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana - while seemingly very different to real estate on the exterior - are in fact eerily similar to real estate from both a fundamental value and income potential overview.
Think of the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana blockchain networks as tertiary real estate markets in which population growth & employment / job growth is rapidly outpacing existing residential supply stock, plus new deliveries and proposed future developmemts. To contextualize, these trchnologies are being adopted by new users / wallets at a rate that is outpacing that of the internet, while the supply of existing tokens in circulating (plus new coins introduced to supply) are being gobbled up like hot cakes.
All the while, assets like ETH & SOL pay native dividend yields of 4-9% that are generated by organic, on-chain “gas fees” (IE - rents) paid by the users of said blockchain networks. What’s more, these yields are denominated in ETH & SOL (not dollars). IE - if you buy 100 ETH @ 4.00% staking reward yield (crypto terminology for dividend), you will earn 4 ETH per year, regardless of the current ETH price. This implies that if ETH appreciates in price due to increased adoption / demand, plus money supply inflation - your ETH staking reward yield ALSO increases. It would be as if you bought a 100 unit apartment complex that yielded 4 additional apartment units (4.00% physical multifamily unit yield) per year!
In addition - like real estate - crypto is highly sensitive to monetary policy and interest rates. As global M2 money supply increases (to service our government’s unsustainable debts) a portion of this M2 trickles down into risk assets - of which crypto is arguably the most sensitive. This is similar to real estate - in the sense that real estate prices (which are essentially leveraged interest rate bets) are highly sensitive to bond prices / yields, which are highly sensitive to global M2 money supply as well.
Lastly, many digital assets (crypto assets) have superior property rights and objectively harder supply schedules than most real estate asset classes do. If you self-custody your crypto assets via a hardware wallet, there is absolutely no way for the government, bad actors, etc to tax or steal your tokens unless you deliberately mess up your operational security or store your assets in a lazy fashion / on exchanges.
Government wants to tax you? Put your tokens on a hardware wallet USB, buy a plane ticket, move to a non-tax jurisdiction, and convert to local currency at current exchange rate. Best of luck freezing my assets. Bad actor wants to steal it? Good luck getting the 24-word seedphrase out of me, especially if you have a multi sig wallet or have fractured your seedphrase across different locations. Gold digger wife wants 50% of your net worth? Good luck with that court order.
You want to take your real estate with you? Bold strategy, Cotton! You want to ensure your county government won’t hike property taxes next year to cover their dubious spending habits? Lol good one! You decide to skip on your monthly loan payment, or property tax bill? Let’s see how long you “own” that real estate for after the bank / daddy government stops getting there vig. You want to spend zero money on maintenance, while simultaneously ensure that you can sell at top dollar in Year 5 of your 10-year hold? Child please.
As it relates to “hard money” characteristics, and whether or not you believe only 21 million bitcoin can ever be minted… this is when it becomes necessary to understand how basic blockchain technology works. Once you understand the basics of how proof-of-work / proof-of-stake blockchain consensus mechanisms work - then you will understand that these technologies GUARANTEES digital scarcity in a way that cannot be manipulated or interfered with by external parties and/or bad actors (namely - governments).
The lack of enthusiasm for crypto assets on this site I find - mainly - resides in the boomer RE investor demographic. The reason for this is simple. Boomers RE investors have made hilarious amounts of wealth in real estate over the last 40 years because 10-Year Treasury bond yields (and therefore - cap rates) have compressed from ~15% in the early 1980's to ~60bps in 2021. This has caused their asset prices to go parabolic, and has permitted even the least savvy RE investors to become insanely rich in ways that far exceed their investing prowess and/or intellect. All the while, these same boomer investors have been levered up to their eyeballs with 70-90% LTV/LTC mortgage debt THE WHOLE 40-YEAR RIDE. In the words of Steve Eisman from the Big Short… "They mistook leverage for genius". I am happy for them! But make no mistake, these RE returns have been more a result of being in the "right place / right time / right macroeconomic setup" than anything else, regardless of your self perceived operating prowess.The crypto asset class is not to be shunned and/or written off. Instead, it is an asset class that is worth investigating and understanding before blindly casting judgement. Be curious, do not get complacent in real estate just because the last 40 years have been (mathematically and objectively) a total cake walk from a macroeconomic & total return standpoint. Do not let your bias for RE color your judgement - especially if you are a boomer that by definition has never had to invest during a prolonged bear market in U.S. Treasury Bonds. All long term secular trends eventually come to an end.
you need to teach us old boomers how this all works and explain it all .. nice post !!
- Rental Property Investor · Brooke Park Drive · Member since 2018 · 1k+ posts · 2k+ votes1y
I love the technology the makes moving money easier (apple pay, venmo). Haven’t carried cash in years. Switching to a whole different currency I don’t see a point in personally.
- 1ySteve K.Realtor · Boulder, CO · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 5k+ votesOP
Quote from @Account Closed:
I love the technology the makes moving money easier (apple pay, venmo). Haven’t carried cash in years. Switching to a whole different currency I don’t see a point in personally.
XRP is supposedly going to make wire transfers a lot easier and cheaper. Could be a good one to watch and it's only ~$2.50 right now... Trump's "Crypto and AI Czar" David Sacks seems to really like XRP.
- Rental Property Investor · Brooke Park Drive · Member since 2018 · 1k+ posts · 2k+ votes1y
Quote from @Steve K.:
Quote from @Account Closed:
I love the technology the makes moving money easier (apple pay, venmo). Haven’t carried cash in years. Switching to a whole different currency I don’t see a point in personally.
XRP is supposedly going to make wire transfers a lot easier and cheaper. Could be a good one to watch and it's only ~$2.50 right now... Trump's "Crypto and AI Czar" David Sacks seems to really like XRP.
I do hate $25-$30 wire transfer fees
- 1yJay HinrichsBusiness MemberReal Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
Quote from @Account Closed:
Quote from @Steve K.:
Quote from @Account Closed:
I love the technology the makes moving money easier (apple pay, venmo). Haven’t carried cash in years. Switching to a whole different currency I don’t see a point in personally.
XRP is supposedly going to make wire transfers a lot easier and cheaper. Could be a good one to watch and it's only ~$2.50 right now... Trump's "Crypto and AI Czar" David Sacks seems to really like XRP.
I do hate $25-$30 wire transfer fees
I dont pay wire fees at all. just need to maintain a decent minimum balance at a good commercial business bank and one of the provisions you negotiate is ZERO wire fees. I am sure most of you folks could do the same as me.. Maybe U just have to ask. And for sure i am not talking the big banks small banks who value your deposit relationships is the key,
- Investor · Austin, TX · Member since 2017 · 107 posts · 89 votes1y
There are a lot of advantages to crypto, but one interesting point that doesn’t get enough airtime is that it’s the first form of ownership in human history, globally valid, that is enforced by mathematical proofs instead of violence (or threat thereof). For this reason alone it’s worth having some held directly in my opinion.
- Handyman · Pittsburgh, PA · Member since 2018 · 5k+ posts · 13k+ votes1y
Quote from @Adam Michael Andrews:
There are a lot of advantages to crypto, but one interesting point that doesn’t get enough airtime is that it’s the first form of ownership in human history, globally valid, that is enforced by mathematical proofs instead of violence (or threat thereof). For this reason alone it’s worth having some held directly in my opinion.
Own, crypto, the ethical asset!
The woman’s face lit up with a malignant anger. “That is the house of Shaws!” she cried. “Blood built it; blood stopped the building of it; blood shall bring it down. See here!” she cried again—“I spit upon the ground, and crack my thumb at it! Black be its fall! If ye see the laird, tell him what ye hear; tell him this makes the twelve hunner and nineteen time that Jennet Clouston has called down the curse on him and his house, byre and stable, man, guest, and master, wife, miss, or bairn—black, black be their fall!” - Investor · Costa Mesa, CA · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes1y
Quote from @Jim K.:
Only you would quote Stevenson. Quite appropriately too…..Quote from @Adam Michael Andrews:
There are a lot of advantages to crypto, but one interesting point that doesn’t get enough airtime is that it’s the first form of ownership in human history, globally valid, that is enforced by mathematical proofs instead of violence (or threat thereof). For this reason alone it’s worth having some held directly in my opinion.
Own, crypto, the ethical asset!
The woman’s face lit up with a malignant anger. “That is the house of Shaws!” she cried. “Blood built it; blood stopped the building of it; blood shall bring it down. See here!” she cried again—“I spit upon the ground, and crack my thumb at it! Black be its fall! If ye see the laird, tell him what ye hear; tell him this makes the twelve hunner and nineteen time that Jennet Clouston has called down the curse on him and his house, byre and stable, man, guest, and master, wife, miss, or bairn—black, black be their fall!”Only you would quote Stevenson. Quite appropriately too….
- Investor · Austin, TX · Member since 2017 · 107 posts · 89 votes1y
Quote from @Jim K.:
Quote from @Adam Michael Andrews:
There are a lot of advantages to crypto, but one interesting point that doesn’t get enough airtime is that it’s the first form of ownership in human history, globally valid, that is enforced by mathematical proofs instead of violence (or threat thereof). For this reason alone it’s worth having some held directly in my opinion.
Own, crypto, the ethical asset!
The woman’s face lit up with a malignant anger. “That is the house of Shaws!” she cried. “Blood built it; blood stopped the building of it; blood shall bring it down. See here!” she cried again—“I spit upon the ground, and crack my thumb at it! Black be its fall! If ye see the laird, tell him what ye hear; tell him this makes the twelve hunner and nineteen time that Jennet Clouston has called down the curse on him and his house, byre and stable, man, guest, and master, wife, miss, or bairn—black, black be their fall!”The main point is you don’t need a third party to be your enforcer like with property or gold bars. Math isn’t going to fail you like your government can.
- Real Estate Agent · Chicago, IL · Member since 2017 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes1y
Even all the red states are voting against state crypto funds. 0 chance congress passes that 🗑️
- 1ySteve K.Realtor · Boulder, CO · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 5k+ votesOP
Quote from @Henry Lazerow:
Even all the red states are voting against state crypto funds. 0 chance congress passes that 🗑️
Who needs congress? Executive Order baby. Signed yesterday, done deal. Poof, we have a strategic crypto reserve.
- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes1y
Quote from @Steve K.:
Quote from @Henry Lazerow:
Even all the red states are voting against state crypto funds. 0 chance congress passes that 🗑️
Who needs congress? Executive Order baby. Signed yesterday, done deal. Poof, we have a strategic crypto reserve.
Context is key here, FULL context.
Most hear all this and assume it means the Gov will be buying crypto.
Nope.
It's the seized crypto they already have or get, ie FREE, that there gonna just keep as is vs convert into USD.
And they can add to it in future, as long as it's "free".....
So, it's 0 support for crypto, 0 fluffing up the market for crypto. One could argue there defending the markets by not dumping it to convert to USD but I hardly call that any support or validation of crypto.
If anything, it's bearish sentiment. Because there saying it's worth holding.... if it's FREE.
- The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve will be capitalized with bitcoin owned by the Department of Treasury that was forfeited as part of criminal or civil asset forfeiture proceedings. Other agencies will evaluate their legal authority to transfer any bitcoin owned by those agencies to the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
- The United States will not sell bitcoin deposited into this Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, which will be maintained as a store of reserve assets.
- The Secretaries of Treasury and Commerce are authorized to develop budget-neutral strategies for acquiring additional bitcoin, provided that those strategies impose no incremental costs on American taxpayers.
- Member since 2020 · 351 posts · 329 votes1y
The primary use cases of crypto is 1.) Gambling 2.) Avoiding capital control laws i.e. move money between different countries when laws disallow it. For example if you had a bunch of money in a Russian bank and you wanted to get it back to America. 3.) Criminal transactions.
There are a lot of folks who see it as a good store of value (especially Bitcoin with it's fixed supply). I do think it's use case as an alternative currency is interesting, but there currently isn't a need until the dollar collapses.
This is an asset with a lot of volatility.
- 1yV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @Peter W.:
The primary use cases of crypto is 1.) Gambling 2.) Avoiding capital control laws i.e. move money between different countries when laws disallow it. For example if you had a bunch of money in a Russian bank and you wanted to get it back to America. 3.) Criminal transactions.
There are a lot of folks who see it as a good store of value (especially Bitcoin with it's fixed supply). I do think it's use case as an alternative currency is interesting, but there currently isn't a need until the dollar collapses.
This is an asset with a lot of volatility.
How would you move money from Russia to America via crypto and bypass the laws?
To and from America, specifically, I am curious about and actually withdraw it. I want to know how because every American exchange takes your ID and any wallet transfer from specific countries have the exchange calling you and verifying information. Blockchain outs you.
America has no ability to control the crypto, just the exchanges. There's a very firm underlying there & understanding that is key.
Only cold hard cash let's you do this in America. I've tried to move money via USDT through exchanges to Croatia via America. Both Coin base & Gemini stopped me from US and believe it or not FTX stopped me in Croatia. I was transparent as it was for property (purchasing), they did not allow it.
Criminals do it in a different form--find countries that don't verify, check, or confirm. Basically, black market exchanges and you then withdraw into the local currency. Your crypto sells for 80c on the dollar and your exchange rate is 70c on the dollar. The bybit hack of $1.5m likely got them $900m-1b not 100% due to how you have to liquidate.
- Member since 2020 · 351 posts · 329 votes1y
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Peter W.:
The primary use cases of crypto is 1.) Gambling 2.) Avoiding capital control laws i.e. move money between different countries when laws disallow it. For example if you had a bunch of money in a Russian bank and you wanted to get it back to America. 3.) Criminal transactions.
There are a lot of folks who see it as a good store of value (especially Bitcoin with it's fixed supply). I do think it's use case as an alternative currency is interesting, but there currently isn't a need until the dollar collapses.
This is an asset with a lot of volatility.
How would you move money from Russia to America via crypto and bypass the laws?
To and from America, specifically, I am curious about and actually withdraw it. I want to know how because every American exchange takes your ID and any wallet transfer from specific countries have the exchange calling you and verifying information. Blockchain outs you.
America has no ability to control the crypto, just the exchanges. There's a very firm underlying there & understanding that is key.
Only cold hard cash let's you do this in America. I've tried to move money via USDT through exchanges to Croatia via America. Both Coin base & Gemini stopped me from US and believe it or not FTX stopped me in Croatia. I was transparent as it was for property (purchasing), they did not allow it.
Criminals do it in a different form--find countries that don't verify, check, or confirm. Basically, black market exchanges and you then withdraw into the local currency. Your crypto sells for 80c on the dollar and your exchange rate is 70c on the dollar. The bybit hack of $1.5m likely got them $900m-1b not 100% due to how you have to liquidate.
Well, I was going to say local bitcoin (website for buying bitcoin not through exchanges but through individuals), but it looks like it has been shut down. So, I don't know anymore. The other opportunity would be to buy electricity to mine--but both are hard to do at scale.
- 1yV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @Peter W.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Peter W.:
The primary use cases of crypto is 1.) Gambling 2.) Avoiding capital control laws i.e. move money between different countries when laws disallow it. For example if you had a bunch of money in a Russian bank and you wanted to get it back to America. 3.) Criminal transactions.
There are a lot of folks who see it as a good store of value (especially Bitcoin with it's fixed supply). I do think it's use case as an alternative currency is interesting, but there currently isn't a need until the dollar collapses.
This is an asset with a lot of volatility.
How would you move money from Russia to America via crypto and bypass the laws?
To and from America, specifically, I am curious about and actually withdraw it. I want to know how because every American exchange takes your ID and any wallet transfer from specific countries have the exchange calling you and verifying information. Blockchain outs you.
America has no ability to control the crypto, just the exchanges. There's a very firm underlying there & understanding that is key.
Only cold hard cash let's you do this in America. I've tried to move money via USDT through exchanges to Croatia via America. Both Coin base & Gemini stopped me from US and believe it or not FTX stopped me in Croatia. I was transparent as it was for property (purchasing), they did not allow it.
Criminals do it in a different form--find countries that don't verify, check, or confirm. Basically, black market exchanges and you then withdraw into the local currency. Your crypto sells for 80c on the dollar and your exchange rate is 70c on the dollar. The bybit hack of $1.5m likely got them $900m-1b not 100% due to how you have to liquidate.
Well, I was going to say local bitcoin (website for buying bitcoin not through exchanges but through individuals), but it looks like it has been shut down. So, I don't know anymore. The other opportunity would be to buy electricity to mine--but both are hard to do at scale.
Right. Other people's arguments against this show really the lack of knowledge--it's a lot more fluent than people give credit for and quickly dismissed due to a lack of understanding.
Let me say that again, I'm not a maximalist or a BTC 4 life guy like some folks are. I'm simply saying rather than discriminate, look under the hood and do your own thesis. Similarly, not asking you to embrace it. And not "recommending" it. Just stating my own views, not parroting others.
Form your own view, not parrot "tulip" mania or see bybit heist.
Most views against crypto suggest:
1) Money laundering or other criminal behavior
2) Anonymous, therefore, not capable of being legitimate or being adopted at scale.
3) Volatile
4) Risky to store, manage, hold, therefore prone to theft.The reality is.
1) There's that happening in USD & other local currency. Almost impossible to eliminate criminal behavior(chart 1.a can show you changes). No one is going to a KYC entity and sanctioned entities is massive dropping. More adoption-- more KYC, more transparency, less volatility.
2. It's not anonymous. Blockchain is literally the most transparent system. It's not meant to be anonymous.
3. Volatile. Absolutely, in order for this to stop. There needs to be more adoption, and more sanctions against entities that cannot receive it(for breaching rules) and more KYC. As those two pick up, with adoption, you'll see vol drop. Markets behave like this. Irrespective of what some other posters think.
4. It is not risky to store or manage. Just don't keep it plain sight. This is like keeping your cash in the bank without Fed reserve backing of $250k, you're on your own. Don't keep it on the exchange or any web-based monitoring(cloud storage, keys on excel on cloud, crypto storage online). Hold it on your own set of keys, away from any possible inteference. Don't post, share, allow your keys anywhere. Don't accept "NFT" nonsense transfers on your Ethereum chain, or accept pool transfer on your BTC ledger chain and expose yourself. This is as basic as not accepting dumb text scams and email scams.It's very sound proof and demands real independence. Operate within it's behavior, quite powerful. Deviate and you're exposed.
Before I say much more, let me be clear. I'm short BTC futures & Microstrategy. Long IBIT and long keys out the curve. My view: short-term (harsh) correction, long term net buyer. Positioned on equities in similar, yet different, fashion. The AI trade is every bit as vulnerable.
If anyone is truly against BTC, go short it out right. Time will tell how it goes, we can check back in March 2030, 2035, etc.
- Investor · Hendersonville, NC · Member since 2016 · 498 posts · 285 votes1y
Quote from @Steve K.:
The President Announced a Strategic Crypto Reserve consisting of ether, XRP, SOL, and Cardano/ADA. His son Eric said crypto is better than real estate for 2025. It seems like except for crypto, the economy is crashing. Should I sell my real estate and invest in crypto in 2025?
Most crypto projects are at all time highs right now. I don't mean to be rude at all, but that's usually not a good time to invest. I suspect you might be experiencing a little bit of FOMO right now and it's quite possibly the worst time to be feeling that because we are at an economic tipping point right now where a lot of folks are waiting to see how Trump's actions affect the economy.
I've been in crypto for about 5 years and experienced 2 big crashes and when I see people make posts like this, it usually tells me things are going to drop soon. If you're deadset on crypto exposure right now, maybe don't go crazy and just dip your toes in. To make money in this space, you have to buy low and sell high. So when everyone is saying negative things about BTC and whatnot and the prices are in the dumps, that is the time to buy if you want to make real money. Just my two cents. I've made more money in real estate than crypto, but that's because of leverage. There are tremendous opportunities in crypto, but it's also extremely risky.
- 1ySteve K.Realtor · Boulder, CO · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 5k+ votesOP
Quote from @Dominic Mazzarella:
Quote from @Steve K.:
The President Announced a Strategic Crypto Reserve consisting of ether, XRP, SOL, and Cardano/ADA. His son Eric said crypto is better than real estate for 2025. It seems like except for crypto, the economy is crashing. Should I sell my real estate and invest in crypto in 2025?
Most crypto projects are at all time highs right now. I don't mean to be rude at all, but that's usually not a good time to invest. I suspect you might be experiencing a little bit of FOMO right now and it's quite possibly the worst time to be feeling that because we are at an economic tipping point right now where a lot of folks are waiting to see how Trump's actions affect the economy.
I've been in crypto for about 5 years and experienced 2 big crashes and when I see people make posts like this, it usually tells me things are going to drop soon. If you're deadset on crypto exposure right now, maybe don't go crazy and just dip your toes in. To make money in this space, you have to buy low and sell high. So when everyone is saying negative things about BTC and whatnot and the prices are in the dumps, that is the time to buy if you want to make real money. Just my two cents. I've made more money in real estate than crypto, but that's because of leverage. There are tremendous opportunities in crypto, but it's also extremely risky.
Yeah but we've never had a "Crypto President" before... I think we'll see the world's first Trillionaires via crypto in the next few years. Calling it now.
- Investor · Hendersonville, NC · Member since 2016 · 498 posts · 285 votes1y
Quote from @Steve K.:
Quote from @Dominic Mazzarella:
Quote from @Steve K.:
The President Announced a Strategic Crypto Reserve consisting of ether, XRP, SOL, and Cardano/ADA. His son Eric said crypto is better than real estate for 2025. It seems like except for crypto, the economy is crashing. Should I sell my real estate and invest in crypto in 2025?
Most crypto projects are at all time highs right now. I don't mean to be rude at all, but that's usually not a good time to invest. I suspect you might be experiencing a little bit of FOMO right now and it's quite possibly the worst time to be feeling that because we are at an economic tipping point right now where a lot of folks are waiting to see how Trump's actions affect the economy.
I've been in crypto for about 5 years and experienced 2 big crashes and when I see people make posts like this, it usually tells me things are going to drop soon. If you're deadset on crypto exposure right now, maybe don't go crazy and just dip your toes in. To make money in this space, you have to buy low and sell high. So when everyone is saying negative things about BTC and whatnot and the prices are in the dumps, that is the time to buy if you want to make real money. Just my two cents. I've made more money in real estate than crypto, but that's because of leverage. There are tremendous opportunities in crypto, but it's also extremely risky.
Yeah but we've never had a "Crypto President" before... I think we'll see the world's first Trillionaires via crypto in the next few years. Calling it now.
That's just gambling though. We all thought trump would be great for the economy, but so far we're seeing inflation start to tick up, the stock market is going down, home prices dropping in some areas and people getting very nervous about tariffs. I wouldn't make a huge financial bet based on something trump said, but that's just me. You could be right here, but it would still just be a gamble.
Remember, we were supposed to see 100k BTC during the last cycle and it never even got near that. I'm a big fan of crypto, but I try to be as pragmatic as possible.
- 1yV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @Dominic Mazzarella:
Quote from @Steve K.:
Quote from @Dominic Mazzarella:
Quote from @Steve K.:
The President Announced a Strategic Crypto Reserve consisting of ether, XRP, SOL, and Cardano/ADA. His son Eric said crypto is better than real estate for 2025. It seems like except for crypto, the economy is crashing. Should I sell my real estate and invest in crypto in 2025?
Most crypto projects are at all time highs right now. I don't mean to be rude at all, but that's usually not a good time to invest. I suspect you might be experiencing a little bit of FOMO right now and it's quite possibly the worst time to be feeling that because we are at an economic tipping point right now where a lot of folks are waiting to see how Trump's actions affect the economy.
I've been in crypto for about 5 years and experienced 2 big crashes and when I see people make posts like this, it usually tells me things are going to drop soon. If you're deadset on crypto exposure right now, maybe don't go crazy and just dip your toes in. To make money in this space, you have to buy low and sell high. So when everyone is saying negative things about BTC and whatnot and the prices are in the dumps, that is the time to buy if you want to make real money. Just my two cents. I've made more money in real estate than crypto, but that's because of leverage. There are tremendous opportunities in crypto, but it's also extremely risky.
Yeah but we've never had a "Crypto President" before... I think we'll see the world's first Trillionaires via crypto in the next few years. Calling it now.
That's just gambling though. We all thought trump would be great for the economy, but so far we're seeing inflation start to tick up, the stock market is going down, home prices dropping in some areas and people getting very nervous about tariffs. I wouldn't make a huge financial bet based on something trump said, but that's just me. You could be right here, but it would still just be a gamble.
Remember, we were supposed to see 100k BTC during the last cycle and it never even got near that. I'm a big fan of crypto, but I try to be as pragmatic as possible.
Only the gullible money thought he'd be great for the economy in the short-term. We knew there'd be some short term(year give or take some months) of pain. Lots of us have said that.
The pain was going to amount to a heightened 10 year(and kill demand) or quick swift chop to the 10 year(and kill certainty). Bessent sized up against the latter, and this was going to be a flush of the system.
The thing is people will blame the current administration for this, when in reality it was the prior that just let this issue form.
Trump is deliberately unpredictable, it's not by accident. If they're able to re-negotiate even 40% of the current tariffs levied on us + move the 10 year closer to pre-election time, then it's likely we're in a state of austerity + negative GDP growth which means Jerome reduces rates rather quickly not necessarily aggressively.
Once that sequence is complete, you'll see the economy settle then rip up to the right. That may take 3 months or 6 or 9, but that's agenda for the most part.
- 1yV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Dominic Mazzarella:
Quote from @Steve K.:
Quote from @Dominic Mazzarella:
Quote from @Steve K.:
The President Announced a Strategic Crypto Reserve consisting of ether, XRP, SOL, and Cardano/ADA. His son Eric said crypto is better than real estate for 2025. It seems like except for crypto, the economy is crashing. Should I sell my real estate and invest in crypto in 2025?
Most crypto projects are at all time highs right now. I don't mean to be rude at all, but that's usually not a good time to invest. I suspect you might be experiencing a little bit of FOMO right now and it's quite possibly the worst time to be feeling that because we are at an economic tipping point right now where a lot of folks are waiting to see how Trump's actions affect the economy.
I've been in crypto for about 5 years and experienced 2 big crashes and when I see people make posts like this, it usually tells me things are going to drop soon. If you're deadset on crypto exposure right now, maybe don't go crazy and just dip your toes in. To make money in this space, you have to buy low and sell high. So when everyone is saying negative things about BTC and whatnot and the prices are in the dumps, that is the time to buy if you want to make real money. Just my two cents. I've made more money in real estate than crypto, but that's because of leverage. There are tremendous opportunities in crypto, but it's also extremely risky.
Yeah but we've never had a "Crypto President" before... I think we'll see the world's first Trillionaires via crypto in the next few years. Calling it now.
That's just gambling though. We all thought trump would be great for the economy, but so far we're seeing inflation start to tick up, the stock market is going down, home prices dropping in some areas and people getting very nervous about tariffs. I wouldn't make a huge financial bet based on something trump said, but that's just me. You could be right here, but it would still just be a gamble.
Remember, we were supposed to see 100k BTC during the last cycle and it never even got near that. I'm a big fan of crypto, but I try to be as pragmatic as possible.
Only the gullible money thought he'd be great for the economy in the short-term. We knew there'd be some short term(year give or take some months) of pain. Lots of us have said that.
The pain was going to amount to a heightened 10 year(and kill demand) or quick swift chop to the 10 year(and kill certainty). Bessent sized up against the latter, and this was going to be a flush of the system.
The thing is people will blame the current administration for this, when in reality it was the prior that just let this issue form.
Trump is deliberately unpredictable, it's not by accident. If they're able to re-negotiate even 40% of the current tariffs levied on us + move the 10 year closer to pre-election time, then it's likely we're in a state of austerity + negative GDP growth which means Jerome reduces rates rather quickly not necessarily aggressively.
Once that sequence is complete, you'll see the economy settle then rip up to the right. That may take 3 months or 6 or 9, but that's agenda for the most part.
This is pretty much what happened.
Right now, this rally is a technical rally. The longest consecutive screen of green days let May 9 settle above the 200 moving day average. Apologies for my childish drawing.
I am not convinced fundamentals are better; we're actually in a worse trade negotiation today than pre Apr 2nd, the 10 year has rallied all the way back to 4.45%. The latter point being the most devastating. Earnings were way, way better than expected but discretionary sector still hasn't shown what it's made of-- if Walmart shows up, this will add fuel to the rally.
- 1yV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @Steve K.:
The President Announced a Strategic Crypto Reserve consisting of ether, XRP, SOL, and Cardano/ADA. His son Eric said crypto is better than real estate for 2025. It seems like except for crypto, the economy is crashing. Should I sell my real estate and invest in crypto in 2025?
Watch what he does not what he says.
Just like Apple they've been saying 500b for years. Intel too? Columbus folks know all about intel.
I think there will be a reserve, just no action on it till later. Right now, they're efforts are focused on three things; TCJA extension, lowering 10 year yield, balancing trade wars.
- Member since 2020 · 2 posts · 1 vote1y
Depends how much RE you can part with and not worry. If you only have a few u it's Id say no.
- 1ySteve K.Realtor · Boulder, CO · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 5k+ votesOP
Update: After signing an executive order to start a Strategic Crypto Reserve, the "Crypto President" held a "Crypto Summit" at the white house today with all of the "Crypto Bro's" in attendance (including his own crypto company, World Liberty Financial). He seems all in on crypto. Although he did flip/flop on having XRP, Solana and ADA (or any altcoins) in the strategic reserve... and it was announced that it would consist only of bitcoin seized by the US government. So a lot of crypto bros are actually upset with the way things went, despite Trump claiming to have ended the US Government's "War on Crypto".
It's crazy how not long ago he was crying about how crypto was a scam and calling Elon Musk a "bullsh*t artist", now he's got his own meme coin and platform for selling crypto, and Elon Musk paid for his election campaign with crypto.
Even though XRP is down on today's news, I'm going to buy some more anyway. $TRUMP (the meme coin) was down today also, but Trump and his company that started it have already made $350M on it, so I doubt he cares, even though most people who invested in it lost money. I am never buying that. Crazy world we are living in!
I think it could easily be a better year for crypto than real estate! But like everything else with this president, the jury is still out...
- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes1y
Quote from @Steve K.:
Update: After signing an executive order to start a Strategic Crypto Reserve, the "Crypto President" held a "Crypto Summit" at the white house today with all of the "Crypto Bro's" in attendance (including his own crypto company, World Liberty Financial). He seems all in on crypto. Although he did flip/flop on having XRP, Solana and ADA (or any altcoins) in the strategic reserve... and it was announced that it would consist only of bitcoin seized by the US government. So a lot of crypto bros are actually upset with the way things went, despite Trump claiming to have ended the US Government's "War on Crypto".
It's crazy how not long ago he was crying about how crypto was a scam and calling Elon Musk a "bullsh*t artist", now he's got his own meme coin and platform for selling crypto, and Elon Musk paid for his election campaign with crypto.
Even though XRP is down on today's news, I'm going to buy some more anyway. $TRUMP (the meme coin) was down today also, but Trump and his company that started it have already made $350M on it, so I doubt he cares, even though most people who invested in it lost money. I am never buying that. Crazy world we are living in!
I think it could easily be a better year for crypto than real estate! But like everything else with this president, the jury is still out...
If stock market goes down another 5%, I assure with certainty it's going to be bad times for crypto.
The best hopes for crypto is the stock market rallies here n now, launching to all time highs and holding.
Because with those like NVDA touching 100 per share, or really just pick your favorite company doing great, and be offered an entry at 50% - 75% discount of it's expected fair market value in 9-18 months..... Well that's a whole lot of incentive to cash-out of BTC and into NVDA.
There is good and really good "deals" starting to price into the stock market right now. Add another 5% decline and were getting into very good - great territory. Go 10% added decline and it's "Holly-smokes I can't believe these discounts".
Nvidia, Coca Cola, Ford, Realty Income Corp and on and on, these are names we know with absolute certainty will be around and performing for decades and generations to come, 0-doubt what so ever.
The OPPORTUNITY COST to hold crypto vs snag a great position on a rock-solid "sure thing".....
People say if they could go back to 2009/2010 they'd buy all the real estate they could get there hands on, right. Well, that's what's kind of starting to come into play with stocks now. No brainer buy opportunities.
Head my words, if the stock market continues to go down crypto will also. Not because the market is pulling it down, but because smart $ is liquidating crypto to acquire the stock deals.
- 1ySteve K.Realtor · Boulder, CO · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 5k+ votesOPYeah it’s funny how crypto was initially touted as a hedge for the stock market but now they move together, we’ve got mutual funds including crypto in their portfolio and crypto ETF’s… strange times!
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Steve K.:
Update: After signing an executive order to start a Strategic Crypto Reserve, the "Crypto President" held a "Crypto Summit" at the white house today with all of the "Crypto Bro's" in attendance (including his own crypto company, World Liberty Financial). He seems all in on crypto. Although he did flip/flop on having XRP, Solana and ADA (or any altcoins) in the strategic reserve... and it was announced that it would consist only of bitcoin seized by the US government. So a lot of crypto bros are actually upset with the way things went, despite Trump claiming to have ended the US Government's "War on Crypto".
It's crazy how not long ago he was crying about how crypto was a scam and calling Elon Musk a "bullsh*t artist", now he's got his own meme coin and platform for selling crypto, and Elon Musk paid for his election campaign with crypto.
Even though XRP is down on today's news, I'm going to buy some more anyway. $TRUMP (the meme coin) was down today also, but Trump and his company that started it have already made $350M on it, so I doubt he cares, even though most people who invested in it lost money. I am never buying that. Crazy world we are living in!
I think it could easily be a better year for crypto than real estate! But like everything else with this president, the jury is still out...
If stock market goes down another 5%, I assure with certainty it's going to be bad times for crypto.
The best hopes for crypto is the stock market rallies here n now, launching to all time highs and holding.
Because with those like NVDA touching 100 per share, or really just pick your favorite company doing great, and be offered an entry at 50% - 75% discount of it's expected fair market value in 9-18 months..... Well that's a whole lot of incentive to cash-out of BTC and into NVDA.
There is good and really good "deals" starting to price into the stock market right now. Add another 5% decline and were getting into very good - great territory. Go 10% added decline and it's "Holly-smokes I can't believe these discounts".
Nvidia, Coca Cola, Ford, Realty Income Corp and on and on, these are names we know with absolute certainty will be around and performing for decades and generations to come, 0-doubt what so ever.
The OPPORTUNITY COST to hold crypto vs snag a great position on a rock-solid "sure thing".....
People say if they could go back to 2009/2010 they'd buy all the real estate they could get there hands on, right. Well, that's what's kind of starting to come into play with stocks now. No brainer buy opportunities.
Head my words, if the stock market continues to go down crypto will also. Not because the market is pulling it down, but because smart $ is liquidating crypto to acquire the stock deals.
- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes1y
Quote from @Steve K.:
Yeah it’s funny how crypto was initially touted as a hedge for the stock market but now they move together, we’ve got mutual funds including crypto in their portfolio and crypto ETF’s… strange times!Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Steve K.:
Update: After signing an executive order to start a Strategic Crypto Reserve, the "Crypto President" held a "Crypto Summit" at the white house today with all of the "Crypto Bro's" in attendance (including his own crypto company, World Liberty Financial). He seems all in on crypto. Although he did flip/flop on having XRP, Solana and ADA (or any altcoins) in the strategic reserve... and it was announced that it would consist only of bitcoin seized by the US government. So a lot of crypto bros are actually upset with the way things went, despite Trump claiming to have ended the US Government's "War on Crypto".
It's crazy how not long ago he was crying about how crypto was a scam and calling Elon Musk a "bullsh*t artist", now he's got his own meme coin and platform for selling crypto, and Elon Musk paid for his election campaign with crypto.
Even though XRP is down on today's news, I'm going to buy some more anyway. $TRUMP (the meme coin) was down today also, but Trump and his company that started it have already made $350M on it, so I doubt he cares, even though most people who invested in it lost money. I am never buying that. Crazy world we are living in!
I think it could easily be a better year for crypto than real estate! But like everything else with this president, the jury is still out...
If stock market goes down another 5%, I assure with certainty it's going to be bad times for crypto.
The best hopes for crypto is the stock market rallies here n now, launching to all time highs and holding.
Because with those like NVDA touching 100 per share, or really just pick your favorite company doing great, and be offered an entry at 50% - 75% discount of it's expected fair market value in 9-18 months..... Well that's a whole lot of incentive to cash-out of BTC and into NVDA.
There is good and really good "deals" starting to price into the stock market right now. Add another 5% decline and were getting into very good - great territory. Go 10% added decline and it's "Holly-smokes I can't believe these discounts".
Nvidia, Coca Cola, Ford, Realty Income Corp and on and on, these are names we know with absolute certainty will be around and performing for decades and generations to come, 0-doubt what so ever.
The OPPORTUNITY COST to hold crypto vs snag a great position on a rock-solid "sure thing".....
People say if they could go back to 2009/2010 they'd buy all the real estate they could get there hands on, right. Well, that's what's kind of starting to come into play with stocks now. No brainer buy opportunities.
Head my words, if the stock market continues to go down crypto will also. Not because the market is pulling it down, but because smart $ is liquidating crypto to acquire the stock deals.
Strange times to the max!
- 1yV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Steve K.:
Update: After signing an executive order to start a Strategic Crypto Reserve, the "Crypto President" held a "Crypto Summit" at the white house today with all of the "Crypto Bro's" in attendance (including his own crypto company, World Liberty Financial). He seems all in on crypto. Although he did flip/flop on having XRP, Solana and ADA (or any altcoins) in the strategic reserve... and it was announced that it would consist only of bitcoin seized by the US government. So a lot of crypto bros are actually upset with the way things went, despite Trump claiming to have ended the US Government's "War on Crypto".
It's crazy how not long ago he was crying about how crypto was a scam and calling Elon Musk a "bullsh*t artist", now he's got his own meme coin and platform for selling crypto, and Elon Musk paid for his election campaign with crypto.
Even though XRP is down on today's news, I'm going to buy some more anyway. $TRUMP (the meme coin) was down today also, but Trump and his company that started it have already made $350M on it, so I doubt he cares, even though most people who invested in it lost money. I am never buying that. Crazy world we are living in!
I think it could easily be a better year for crypto than real estate! But like everything else with this president, the jury is still out...
If stock market goes down another 5%, I assure with certainty it's going to be bad times for crypto.
The best hopes for crypto is the stock market rallies here n now, launching to all time highs and holding.
Because with those like NVDA touching 100 per share, or really just pick your favorite company doing great, and be offered an entry at 50% - 75% discount of it's expected fair market value in 9-18 months..... Well that's a whole lot of incentive to cash-out of BTC and into NVDA.
There is good and really good "deals" starting to price into the stock market right now. Add another 5% decline and were getting into very good - great territory. Go 10% added decline and it's "Holly-smokes I can't believe these discounts".
Nvidia, Coca Cola, Ford, Realty Income Corp and on and on, these are names we know with absolute certainty will be around and performing for decades and generations to come, 0-doubt what so ever.
The OPPORTUNITY COST to hold crypto vs snag a great position on a rock-solid "sure thing".....
People say if they could go back to 2009/2010 they'd buy all the real estate they could get there hands on, right. Well, that's what's kind of starting to come into play with stocks now. No brainer buy opportunities.
Head my words, if the stock market continues to go down crypto will also. Not because the market is pulling it down, but because smart $ is liquidating crypto to acquire the stock deals.
If the stock market goes down, crypto will go down faster because of the leverage:liquidity ratio not because they'll be selling crypto to buy equities It's all a game of leverage. That's not some wild take, that's 100% expectations.
It's crypto, stocks, then real estate for leverage right now. Literally, in that order. Somewhere in there is private credit which can exacerbate the issue.
The leverage in BTC and some other crypto is insane. It's almost akin to 2008 GFC.
That would make it the real generational opportunity to buy not just equities. This would be H2 2022 all over again, when folks said BTC was dead.
VTI going down 5% from today isn't a generational opportunity-- that puts it back at Sep 2024 levels. 10% puts it down to where May 2024 was. The correction in 2022 was stronger. Try a 24-27% correction. That would put BTC closer to a $34-38k(yes a 50%++ correction) mark because leverage would force the sale. Now that's the generational opportunity.
Most FOs & institutions have some form of BTC ETF to Microstrategy, RIOT, Mara play on for this. The extremely leveraged one's will cause a collapse, and the low leverage one's will make BTC the real generational buying opportunity.
Ideally, just like any collapse buying everything you can is the right move and appropriating allocation %'s to not just buy the falling knife but buy weighted across the time curve is the route. Most recent example is H2 2022, buying any asset was the right move if you remove the emotion. BTC was absolutely an excellent play, second to NVIDIA.
Bessent's stance on not selling is not bearish news, it's not bullish either--as it's expected. The mark to market value on current BTC and realized gains is a significant amount given all their lovely DOGE cuts they love to brag about. The fact he's not selling it doesn't mean all they'll bring in is what they'll confiscate for free, it means there needs to be legislation on how to acquire it outside of US taxpayer money(via spending cuts and budget re-allocation). In other terms, he knows the bottom is not in due to headwinds and once it's there that legislation will be there. Pure spec opinion, but let's see.
Bessent's view on Bitcoin is the same as mine. It's a threat to the the USD, a savior to emerging markets. The US must get in front of it-- he just cannot say it that way obviously. If you have a different view, go short it, realize your gains and go invest in equities.
Like Nicholas said let's see in 2030, 2035, etc.
- 1yNicholas L.Pro MemberFlipper/Rehabber · Pittsburgh · Member since 2018 · 6k+ posts · 5k+ votes
can we all agree to meet back here in 2030, 2035 and 2040 to see if anyone's predictions came true?
i'll say this. i'm bullish on real estate.
agree with your take although I confess that I do hold some IBIT just in case Bitcoin goes to $1M.
- 1ySteve K.Realtor · Boulder, CO · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 5k+ votesOP
Quote from @Nicholas L.:
can we all agree to meet back here in 2030, 2035 and 2040 to see if anyone's predictions came true?
i'll say this. i'm bullish on real estate.
agree with your take although I confess that I do hold some IBIT just in case Bitcoin goes to $1M.
If we're going to bequeath this thread to posterity, I will need to clarify my position. The comment above will provide some insight into my true feelings along with the admittance that I have been doing some devil's advocating in this thread (or "trolling" in the parlance of our times).
I probably will continue investing in crypto extremely cautiously with a tiny percentage of my overall investment capital, just for fun and because it interests me basically. Perhaps I'll make a little money but am prepared to lose every penny. I'm definitely not selling any real estate or investing anything close to $1M in crypto.
Crypto could actually go mainstream during this presidency, in which case I'll be glad to have invested somewhat early. Or alternatively, Trump's grifting tendencies could actually ruin it for everyone if he get's greedy with it and pushes the level of rampant corruption that we're currently witnessing to its breaking point. TBD!
- Realtor · Provo, UT · Member since 2016 · 119 posts · 73 votes1y
I'd only put in that which you can afford to loose, just in case it all goes "poof"
- 1ySteve K.Realtor · Boulder, CO · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 5k+ votesOP
Quote from @Sam Levin:
I'd only put in that which you can afford to loose, just in case it all goes "poof"
Yes, let's not forget to mention all of the bankruptcies, frauds, hacks, crashes and other various "black swan" events over the years... like Mt.Gox, FTX, Blockfi, Celsius, 3AC, Terra-UST and Luna, Genesis, Babel, Core Scientific, The BTC crashes of 2011, 2013, 2018, 2020, 2021, 2022, etc. etc. etc. or more recently AdsPower, Phemex and the biggest one of all, Bybit (hacked for $1.5 BILLION a few weeks ago by the same North Korean hacker group that has stolen $6 Billion in crypto and used it to fund their ballistic missile program).
Invest what you can afford to lose is an understatement for the amount of volatility and lack of control in crypto. Anyone who has had their crypto assets frozen as the exchange they are on crashes, declares bankruptcy, or simply restricts trading is all too familiar with that.
But now that we have a Crypto President who has promised to end all of the "unfair" "lawfare" SEC investigations and remove most of the existing government regulations, what could possibly go wrong (hopefully my sarcasm is apparent)?
Most governments have sought to regulate crypto to protect investors, prevent financial crimes, and maintain the stability of the financial systems. We've never had a president who is so committed to it before, or is so intimately familiar with and deeply connected to complex financial scams like this before. So I'm saying all bets are off now.
He could be telling the truth about intending to make the US the "Bitcoin Superpower of the World" as he has said yesterday at the Crypto Summit, or his $TRUMP meme coin could just be the first of many big pump and dump scams he'll get involved in, in which case the whole thing could backfire and really turn the whole crypto space upside down in the worst possible way. Time will tell. In the meantime, you're very wise to tread carefully.
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