Putting $1M into Crypto

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Putting $1M into Crypto

Steve K.
Realtor · Boulder, CO · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 5k+ votes

The President Announced a Strategic Crypto Reserve consisting of ether, XRP, SOL, and Cardano/ADA. His son Eric said crypto is better than real estate for 2025. It seems like except for crypto, the economy is crashing. Should I sell my real estate and invest in crypto in 2025?

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James Wise
Real Estate Broker · Cleveland Dayton Cincinnati Toledo Columbus & Akron, OH · Member since 2013 · 30k+ posts · 20k+ votes
1y
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @James Wise:
Quote from @Steve K.:

@Jay Hinrichs Ohio, Columbus, Cleveland @Jim K. @James Wise 


 I don't invest in things I don't understand and I don't invest in things that I can't control. For those reasons, I've never got into Crypto so I got no friggin clue.


LOL me too.. my son in law is always telling me  to buy it though.  And I have some clients in Baltimore that were telling me to buy some when it got down to 15k a few years ago.. But I also had a client the year before get hosed with it.. going form 60k she paid and selling at 20k.  I remember when it was 1 dollar and I do kick myself for not taking 1k and buying a thousand of them :) Even though I did not understand it then and done really now..  will stick to renting my money out to others for a fee that seems to have worked for me by and large for decades along with rehabbing or building new construction.. But like crypto can crash real estate was/is not immune from falling either.. we got hammered in 09 to 2011. 

 I look at it like this......If there is a random group of 10,000 people, I am probably smarter, better, and more experienced than 99% of them when it comes to making money in real estate. 

Likewise, if there is a random group of 10,000 people, I am probably less knowledgeable and experienced in Crypto than 99% of them.

Only an idiot would invest their money in an area where they are on the bottom 1% when they could just invest it in an area where they are on the top 1%.

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  • Henry ClarkPro Member
    Developer · Member since 2020 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    7mo

    Educate me on Crypto.  If it is $10,000; $50,000; $100,000.  How do you analyze if it is worth that much?  How do you decide if it is going up or down?  Asset value?   Revenue stream?   What is the logic?   Thanks. 

    0Reply
    • Steve K.
      OP
      Realtor · Boulder, CO · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 5k+ votes
      7mo
      Quote from @Henry Clark:

      Educate me on Crypto.  If it is $10,000; $50,000; $100,000.  How do you analyze if it is worth that much?  How do you decide if it is going up or down?  Asset value?   Revenue stream?   What is the logic?   Thanks. 


       Henry I'm definitely the wrong one to field this question for you, being just a dibbler and a dabbler myself. I am currently fully divested in crypto and not a strong believer. But I'll give it a shot anyway since nobody else has replied, and then maybe some others with more expertise than myself will chime in. 

      There aren't really quantitative ways to analyze crypto in the direct way that there are for stocks, real estate or businesses. There are no cash flows, P/E ratios, cap rates, or revenues.  The investment thesis for crypto is more akin to precious metals (hence the moniker "digital gold") in that there is a scarcity and a demand, making it a store of value. For example there is a limited supply of 21 million Bitcoins (side note currently almost 20 million have been mined so just over 1 million remains to be mined) allowing it to act as a hedge against inflation/ fiat currency debasement. There is something somebody invented called the NVT ratio that is kind of comparable to a P/E ratio. It is basically the market cap / daily transacted volume in USD, but it's not really the same at all because again crypto is not a share of a company but rather a store of value. 

      Originally the emphasis was on Bitcoin having utility. Early adopters were betting on being able to use Bitcoin to buy and sell everything. But widespread adoption as a tool for transactions like any existing currency has been slow despite being but much better than existing currencies in many ways (it's digital not physical, anonymity, portability anywhere in the world, blockchain tech that tracks and records everything, not controlled by a government or a central bank, etc.). I won't get into all of the reasons why it hasn't been more widely adopted as a currency but you hear less about that as a value proposition these days. It is still known as the internet's reserve currency and may still end up being more widely adopted over time for transactional purposes, but so far the real world use case for buying and selling everything is limited. In strict terms of utility as a currency, Bitcoin is actually outdated now and there are more efficient platforms for transactions like Litecoin, Solana, Tether, USDC, ETH, XRP, Tron, BNB, etc. but it's telling that none of these are anywhere near as valuable as BTC despite being faster and better for completing transactions. The value of BTC has basically boiled down to scarcity and perceived value over intrinsic value. With BTC being the original and by far most widely adopted crypto, its value is derived simply from a lot of people agreeing that it is valuable. This is no different than any currency really. Even with gold only 10% of its price is based on practical use in industry, jewelry etc., while 90% is the monetary premium us humans agree upon. So the investment thesis for crypto is more similar to gold than stocks, real estate, or businesses that have metrics you can use to analyze. For those trading it actively as opposed to buying and holding, I believe they would look at patterns like the 4 year halving cycle and make predictions that way instead of evaluating it like a company. 

      2Reply
    • V.G JasonPro Member
      Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
      7mo
      Quote from @Henry Clark:

      Educate me on Crypto.  If it is $10,000; $50,000; $100,000.  How do you analyze if it is worth that much?  How do you decide if it is going up or down?  Asset value?   Revenue stream?   What is the logic?   Thanks. 


       The value is the network. And network's work off Metcalfe law--the increase is exponential based off the user count.

      The belief in basis for the value is it's the only (agreed) asset that you can cross boundaries, people, governments, etc. with zero intervention yet full verification, portability and the most liquidity. To keep the "value" protected, there's a scarcity aspect.

      Does that make it more clear?

      Also, last weeks episode was caused mainly by the financialization of BTC. Back to my earlier point in my threads --overleverage. Nothing changed about the asset.

      2Reply
    • V.G JasonPro Member
      Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
      7mo
      Quote from @Steve K.:
      Quote from @Henry Clark:

      Educate me on Crypto.  If it is $10,000; $50,000; $100,000.  How do you analyze if it is worth that much?  How do you decide if it is going up or down?  Asset value?   Revenue stream?   What is the logic?   Thanks. 


       Henry I'm definitely the wrong one to field this question for you, being just a dibbler and a dabbler myself. I am currently fully divested in crypto and not a strong believer. But I'll give it a shot anyway since nobody else has replied, and then maybe some others with more expertise than myself will chime in. 

      There aren't really quantitative ways to analyze crypto in the direct way that there are for stocks, real estate or businesses. There are no cash flows, P/E ratios, cap rates, or revenues.  The investment thesis for crypto is more akin to precious metals (hence the moniker "digital gold") in that there is a scarcity and a demand, making it a store of value. For example there is a limited supply of 21 million Bitcoins (side note currently almost 20 million have been mined so just over 1 million remains to be mined) allowing it to act as a hedge against inflation/ fiat currency debasement. There is something somebody invented called the NVT ratio that is kind of comparable to a P/E ratio. It is basically the market cap / daily transacted volume in USD, but it's not really the same at all because again crypto is not a share of a company but rather a store of value. 

      Originally the emphasis was on Bitcoin having utility. Early adopters were betting on being able to use Bitcoin to buy and sell everything. But widespread adoption as a tool for transactions like any existing currency has been slow despite being but much better than existing currencies in many ways (it's digital not physical, anonymity, portability anywhere in the world, blockchain tech that tracks and records everything, not controlled by a government or a central bank, etc.). I won't get into all of the reasons why it hasn't been more widely adopted as a currency but you hear less about that as a value proposition these days. It is still known as the internet's reserve currency and may still end up being more widely adopted over time for transactional purposes, but so far the real world use case for buying and selling everything is limited. In strict terms of utility as a currency, Bitcoin is actually outdated now and there are more efficient platforms for transactions like Litecoin, Solana, Tether, USDC, ETH, XRP, Tron, BNB, etc. but it's telling that none of these are anywhere near as valuable as BTC despite being faster and better for completing transactions. The value of BTC has basically boiled down to scarcity and perceived value over intrinsic value. With BTC being the original and by far most widely adopted crypto, its value is derived simply from a lot of people agreeing that it is valuable. This is no different than any currency really. Even with gold only 10% of its price is based on practical use in industry, jewelry etc., while 90% is the monetary premium us humans agree upon. So the investment thesis for crypto is more similar to gold than stocks, real estate, or businesses that have metrics you can use to analyze. For those trading it actively as opposed to buying and holding, I believe they would look at patterns like the 4 year halving cycle and make predictions that way instead of evaluating it like a company. 

       It started out as defiant money, and you'll notice every "use" case was defined by the current gravitational pull. 12 years ago it was supposed to develop into money, less than 9 years ago when it first got real mainstream attention it was the anchor of the blockchain in the ICO mania. 5 years ago it's a hedge against inflation, today it's a store of value.

      I think the reality it is versatile, but that's not against it. That's a plus of it.

      2Reply
    • James Hamling
      Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
      7mo
      Quote from @Henry Clark:

      Educate me on Crypto.  If it is $10,000; $50,000; $100,000.  How do you analyze if it is worth that much?  How do you decide if it is going up or down?  Asset value?   Revenue stream?   What is the logic?   Thanks. 


      Henry, there is no shortage of word-smithing as to value structure of BTC and any of the 40K+ cryptos out there. 

      The baseline facts are BTC has no intrinsic value, none. 

      BTC's value is 100% based upon perceptual value. That's it. 

      People say but BTC has a fixed amount and thus it's "value" is it's limited supply. Well, there is also a limited supply of my dog's 💩, that does not make it worth anything. 

      The limited supply argument only matters for impacting increasing price when there is a demand to have BTC. 

      Everything with BTC and crypto stands on 1 fundamental basis of perception. 

      Most get into or got into BTC, because of a perception of it's price going way up and thus they'd profit. This is the central thesis all speak back to, a FOMO messaging. So weather they openly admit it or not, the actions speak for themselves that it's a quazi-ponzi. Your only making profits back based on others buying-in at a higher price in later dates. 

      In every way BTC and 99% of crypto is all but identical to the Tulip Rally. But nobody want's to acknowledge that. 

      For years on end it's been fantasy talk of how this crypto or that will replace USD or other currency, and to date crypto has effected exactly 0 progress in this manner. 

      BTC produces nothing. 

      BTC solves, nothing. Not for the average person. 

      Gold has a utility, Silver has a utility, BTC has no utility what so ever. 

      BTC is a "store of wealth" exactly as NFT's had been; only when there is enough people who BELIEVE it is worth something. So it's not the BTC who holds any value, it's the belief. 

      BTC and crypto has more in common with fine art than it does with any other asset class. 

      People argue to institutional investors getting in is proof of some use or whatever. No, it's only proof that it's making enough profit to make it a worthy play. 

      At lowest common denominator BTC and crypto is a "digital Tulip" that has achieved lowest possible friction to "invest" in/with. The various shiny-object attachments are simply features to sell that specific crypto's belief matrix. Because all of them have no value other than that people assign to it via belief. And about 99.8% of them are truly just making money. 

      The true "network" for crypto is so many tied into a profit-motive of pumping up belief so they can make maximal profit from the belief getting pumped sky high. 

      Saylor himself gave it up. Said if people BELIEVED BTC was worth $1m+, that the value would skyrocket to over $1m per. 

      BTC and crypto will continue to have a chorus of arguments to it's value merit until enough real money has been extracted from it, and enough exit to allow it to experience price discovery too it's intrinsic or utility value basis. Which is next to nothing of where it stands today. 

      Do I see that happening now, or in any immediacy? No. 

      But we are in the beginning of the end. 

      Persons are now chasing yesterdays profits. This psychology played out with GME. Those who were in early for the big squeeze. Then those who chased it right after. And the various stages down, down, down. Lower highs, lower lows. Assorted pop's throughout it but exiting of take-profits well in advance of previous highs because at heart of it everyone knows it's not actually worth those sky-high valuations. They are only doing it to make $ off new buyers. 

      0Reply
  • Henry ClarkPro Member
    Developer · Member since 2020 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    7mo

    Thanks @Steve K..  @V.G Jason

    Thus very little traditional valuation methodology.  

    The next step is liquidity.  Yes there is the market, but at some point it has to come down to day to day consumer usage.  Is there a Debit or Credit card system to bridge the gap between Crypto investors and daily consumer uses?  This means there is an entity who wants crypto, who is trusted to have your crypto access to pull funds, that will pay vendors in cash.  Realize access to your crypto is a non starter thus they would need to bank US dollar account with the card processor who deals in crypto and US dollars.

     Back to my earlier question, who is steering the maturation of the Crypto environment.  
    Thanks. 

    1Reply
    • V.G JasonPro Member
      Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
      7mo
      Quote from @Henry Clark:

      Thanks @Steve K..  @V.G Jason

      Thus very little traditional valuation methodology.  

      The next step is liquidity.  Yes there is the market, but at some point it has to come down to day to day consumer usage.  Is there a Debit or Credit card system to bridge the gap between Crypto investors and daily consumer uses?  This means there is an entity who wants crypto, who is trusted to have your crypto access to pull funds, that will pay vendors in cash.  Realize access to your crypto is a non starter thus they would need to bank US dollar account with the card processor who deals in crypto and US dollars.

       Back to my earlier question, who is steering the maturation of the Crypto environment.  
      Thanks. 

      To your first question, yes there is and that's offered through the lightning network. Adoption to taking bitcoin is not totally different than your local store refusing AMEX then adding it. They'll need the process server and a way to store the fund(safely). Like I mentioned earlier in this thread, I paid BTC to buy a car from a notable, top of the line hospitality chain owner's car dealership.

      There are other DeFi(decentralized finance) intermediaries that will disrupt the normal transaction, lending and other financial transactors process. A lot will be intertwined with tokenization. Early, but it will happen. It's just too inefficient right now to not disrupt and this will disrupt it. 

       In regards to steering the maturation, I think the way you want to look at this isn't who specifically or what specifically is guiding you to BTC(won't say Crypto specifically). We can get it into that on the next reply. 

      But what's steering you away from normal fiat/USD/currency holdings?

      2Reply
  • Henry ClarkPro Member
    Developer · Member since 2020 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    7mo

    @James Hamling. If you had a strong conviction it was going up or down, can you do options against it?  

    0Reply
    • James Hamling
      Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
      7mo
      Quote from @Henry Clark:

      @James Hamling. If you had a strong conviction it was going up or down, can you do options against it?  


      So here is the thing about BTC that most people don't know and struggle very hard to comprehend. 

      A major selling point about BTC is it's set, limited supply of BTC. 

      BUT..... Oh the majors but's on this. 

      Since BTC has now opened up to ETF's and assorted secondary ways to trade on BTC, and with Options Trading, there is effectively LIMITLESS supply of BTC. 

      So many people struggle with comprehending this very important facet, and I truly believe that is by design. This is advanced level stuff, but it's how the professional financial market operates, and impacts all. 

      Last Thursday there was a major flush-out in a very limited time move down to $60k. It's now known and identified that was all but certainly due to 1 trade actions in 1 of these sub-markets to BTC, where moves of the options, NOT BTC itself, effected things up-stream eventually hitting as a bulk sell-off of BTC. 

      So what your asking Henry, would require a super computer. Because BTC price action up and down is no longer pinned to BTC being bought and sold in a simple BTC market. It's now got all the lovely sub-market's attached to it, with layers upon layers of leveraged betting, which the leverage compounds in it's leverage as the layers stack. 

      This is EXACTLY what happened in mortgages pre-'08'. 

      Leading up to the '08' crash there was on average an estimated 40+ "bets" on any 1 mortgage, at any given moment. 

      BTC is now with the same. 

      So you take an item such as Options, bought with Yuan, against a BTC ETF, and say the Yuan has a sudden "shock" event..... Effecting a massive movement in those options, that impacts the ETF, that then impacts BTC..... You get a BTC movement that has effectively nothing to do with BTC but it moves BTC and maybe kicks off a movement cycle. 

      Many arguments out there that this above scenario is exactly what we just experienced in a multi-week sell-off that brought BTC down from $125k too 80's and later 70's and so on. 

      There is more ways to trade against BTC than one can count. It's the wild west of investing with crypto, and BTC right now. 

      Many consider trading MSTR Options a trade on BTC that get's a double amplication factor. Than there is 2X leveraged funds that one can again, do Options on getting a multiplier to that 2X leveraging. 

      There is ways out there to do options directly on BTC, and ways to do options on the options of BTC options..... 

      I would coin BTC the crown jewel of volatility. 

      2Reply
    • V.G JasonPro Member
      Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
      7mo
      Quote from @Henry Clark:

      @James Hamling. If you had a strong conviction it was going up or down, can you do options against it?  

       Sure, go buy a put on the IBIT ETF. Or better short the futs. Can read earlier in the thread on the futs, keys, mstr trades I've put on since top of last year.

      So much off in the post, don't know where to start. Only thing that will tell the truth is time. 

      If someone can answer my question I left off with then it can practically be walked into why it's caught on as a network.

      1Reply
  • V.G JasonPro Member
    Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    6mo

    Market loved NVIDIA's earnings post release at first, seems like after market took a huge gap up then gave it back. We'll need to see up until Friday close to get the real feelings out there.

    The entire market is soaking in a lot of deflationary pressures right now and once again I think Bitcoin was in front of that. Question how long does it go?

    I know in my neck of the woods, real estate is pricing sub 2022 levels. On par with Bitcoin, not that is necessarily correlated, but I am wondering if we start to see some Gold unwinding and US market unwinding. 

    Something's got to give, I know the flavor of 2025 & 2026 will be international exposure. 

    1Reply
    • James Hamling
      Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
      6mo
      Quote from @V.G Jason:

      Market loved NVIDIA's earnings post release at first, seems like after market took a huge gap up then gave it back. We'll need to see up until Friday close to get the real feelings out there.

      The entire market is soaking in a lot of deflationary pressures right now and once again I think Bitcoin was in front of that. Question how long does it go?

      I know in my neck of the woods, real estate is pricing sub 2022 levels. On par with Bitcoin, not that is necessarily correlated, but I am wondering if we start to see some Gold unwinding and US market unwinding. 

      Something's got to give, I know the flavor of 2025 & 2026 will be international exposure. 

       I believe what were seeing play out in front of us right now, is going to confuse the heck out of people younger than mid to late 40's. 

      I believe we are experiencing a inflationary deflation. 

      Those who remember late 70's and 80's lived this. 

      Inflation raging, devouring disposable income. And with that, a deflationary result in some ways due simply to meeting affordability. Things got smaller, cheaper quality, lessor in many ways but didn't matter long as price became "affordable". 

      People worked more, for effectively less even though the numbers appeared more they were truly less as those greater numbers got less. 

      BTC is supported in large part via younger retail crowd. A demo who's very vulnerable to affordability issues. It was a lot easier for young folk to throw a few hundred here and there at this cool, neat, hip thing called BTC back when vs today. 

      And how many of those now have kid #1, 2 and a mortgage etc. to think about, and not so prone to throw $ around at "neat" things any more. 

      Evidence of this? Well, beyond the price action, how about the price action WHILE Saylor is buying at fever pitch and other large investment firms buying in volume. BTC keeps going down, sharply. That's only possible via a whole lot more selling then buying. Yeah, I do think it's just that simple.

      Inflation is real. The younger ones, I really don't think you have a true comprehension to what inflation really is or how it can really look because your whole lives you've been very sheltered from these kinds of things. 

      Those with memories of 70's and 80's, we experienced very different realities. We lived the reality of USA loosing a major war. We experienced real actual factual oil/gas shocks and shortages. We experienced inflation in it's full force. 90's and on, it's been a fantasy land, smooth sailing really. 

      Really since late 80's things have been fantastic with a few little bumps int he road that were over so fast it was hard to remember they ever even happened within a really short time after. 

      Half this nation is simply not mentally prepared for just how rough things can, and probably will, get. 

      I recall a time my parents worked 5 jobs, FIVE. And it wasn't abnormal. People complaining over 40hr work weeks now, lol, oh-man, it's gonna be a rough awakening for so many. 

      3Reply
    • V.G JasonPro Member
      Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
      6mo
      Quote from @James Hamling:
      Quote from @V.G Jason:

      Market loved NVIDIA's earnings post release at first, seems like after market took a huge gap up then gave it back. We'll need to see up until Friday close to get the real feelings out there.

      The entire market is soaking in a lot of deflationary pressures right now and once again I think Bitcoin was in front of that. Question how long does it go?

      I know in my neck of the woods, real estate is pricing sub 2022 levels. On par with Bitcoin, not that is necessarily correlated, but I am wondering if we start to see some Gold unwinding and US market unwinding. 

      Something's got to give, I know the flavor of 2025 & 2026 will be international exposure. 

       I believe what were seeing play out in front of us right now, is going to confuse the heck out of people younger than mid to late 40's. 

      I believe we are experiencing a inflationary deflation. 

      Those who remember late 70's and 80's lived this. 

      Inflation raging, devouring disposable income. And with that, a deflationary result in some ways due simply to meeting affordability. Things got smaller, cheaper quality, lessor in many ways but didn't matter long as price became "affordable". 

      People worked more, for effectively less even though the numbers appeared more they were truly less as those greater numbers got less. 

      BTC is supported in large part via younger retail crowd. A demo who's very vulnerable to affordability issues. It was a lot easier for young folk to throw a few hundred here and there at this cool, neat, hip thing called BTC back when vs today. 

      And how many of those now have kid #1, 2 and a mortgage etc. to think about, and not so prone to throw $ around at "neat" things any more. 

      Evidence of this? Well, beyond the price action, how about the price action WHILE Saylor is buying at fever pitch and other large investment firms buying in volume. BTC keeps going down, sharply. That's only possible via a whole lot more selling then buying. Yeah, I do think it's just that simple.

      Inflation is real. The younger ones, I really don't think you have a true comprehension to what inflation really is or how it can really look because your whole lives you've been very sheltered from these kinds of things. 

      Those with memories of 70's and 80's, we experienced very different realities. We lived the reality of USA loosing a major war. We experienced real actual factual oil/gas shocks and shortages. We experienced inflation in it's full force. 90's and on, it's been a fantasy land, smooth sailing really. 

      Really since late 80's things have been fantastic with a few little bumps int he road that were over so fast it was hard to remember they ever even happened within a really short time after. 

      Half this nation is simply not mentally prepared for just how rough things can, and probably will, get. 

      I recall a time my parents worked 5 jobs, FIVE. And it wasn't abnormal. People complaining over 40hr work weeks now, lol, oh-man, it's gonna be a rough awakening for so many. 


       Hit the nail on the head--inflationary deflation.

      1Reply
  • Alan F.
    Flipper/Rehabber · CA · Member since 2023 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    6mo

    Good times lol, pushing my truck in gas lines, standing in line for gubment cheese & the genius of a federally mandated 55 mph speed limit.

    0Reply
    • James Hamling
      Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
      6mo
      Quote from @Alan F.:

      Good times lol, pushing my truck in gas lines, standing in line for gubment cheese & the genius of a federally mandated 55 mph speed limit.


      For me, it was a Chevette. Easy to push..... and that's the only pro of a Chevette, lol. Oh, the 8-track did work half the time and only ate tapes every 5th or 6th time, that was nice, until it wasn't. 

      2Reply
  • V.G JasonPro Member
    Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    5mo












    Bitcoin to Gold Ratio is flirting with the lows. Bitcoin is usually a first-mover-- inauguration rally, tariff threat, re-rally, then collapse in October(MSTR death cross + 4 year cycle + looming economic difficulties). 

    Always hard to tell what will happen but I think Gold consolidates a bit, as equities suffers into Q2. SPY & Nasdaq are flirting with death crosses, and major international indices are further away from their 200dma but inside their 50dma. Large Cap Growth ETFs are just 4-7 days of consolidating prices away from hitting it. If it does, we're going to sit there for 1-3 months at least until earnings seasons prove otherwise.

     Then a re-rally going into the mid-terms on all fronts, but the more volatile ones will speak louder.

    The underlying concerns in the economy stick and honestly do not see something on the horizon for real estate for quite sometime. It's going to be a game of chicken. I am seeing a lot of re-lists post Superbowl from pre-thanksgiving and they're pricing it higher. I am just not understanding it.

    1Reply
    • James Hamling
      Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
      5mo
      Quote from @V.G Jason:












      Bitcoin to Gold Ratio is flirting with the lows. Bitcoin is usually a first-mover-- inauguration rally, tariff threat, re-rally, then collapse in October(MSTR death cross + 4 year cycle + looming economic difficulties). 

      Always hard to tell what will happen but I think Gold consolidates a bit, as equities suffers into Q2. SPY & Nasdaq are flirting with death crosses, and major international indices are further away from their 200dma but inside their 50dma. Large Cap Growth ETFs are just 4-7 days of consolidating prices away from hitting it. If it does, we're going to sit there for 1-3 months at least until earnings seasons prove otherwise.

       Then a re-rally going into the mid-terms on all fronts, but the more volatile ones will speak louder.

      The underlying concerns in the economy stick and honestly do not see something on the horizon for real estate for quite sometime. It's going to be a game of chicken. I am seeing a lot of re-lists post Superbowl from pre-thanksgiving and they're pricing it higher. I am just not understanding it.


      Forecasting the details is a fools errand. The outside influences are of such degree. An organized, propagandized media on a mission. Legions of novice media-4-clicks. Geopolitical powder keg's and actions akin to pre-WWI. Shadow cyber wars, currency wars, proxy wars...... 

      Every which way you turn it's a new book of nuanced crazy happening, be it the Saylor-Schemes, or the finance crises, debt crisis, political crisis, the crisis crisis.....

      And the entire time, through all of it, Chinas sitting back, following a plan, slow-stepping forward, forward, forward..... The west is f'd if we keep playing into the BS as we do. 

      The one thing I am certain of is inflation. It's a binary choice, deflation or inflation. The "system" will always prefer inflation over deflation. The panic-buttom is inflation. There solutions are inflationary. War is inflationary. Fiat crisis is inflationary. Fiat is inflationary. 

      I am completely ignoring the deflationary signals and moves as very short-term and as faints. 

      0Reply
  • V.G JasonPro Member
    Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    5mo

    Good to ignore, but the noise will play longer than we think.

    Subtle things like SpaceX and Open AI may rock the s&p. And that kind of issue will be long duration. Longer if we see Sam has just dropped a bomb on public markets that Apollo tried to do but no one, literally no one, bit on in ETF form.

    Right now all forces are pushing deflationary. Just how deep does it go. House of cards, whose over levered & extended right now and where?

    Private credit for sure. Some folks in RE for sure, in crypto yes for sure not as bad as August but still there.

    0Reply
    • James Hamling
      Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
      5mo
      Quote from @V.G Jason:

      Good to ignore, but the noise will play longer than we think.

      Subtle things like SpaceX and Open AI may rock the s&p. And that kind of issue will be long duration. Longer if we see Sam has just dropped a bomb on public markets that Apollo tried to do but no one, literally no one, bit on in ETF form.

      Right now all forces are pushing deflationary. Just how deep does it go. House of cards, whose over levered & extended right now and where?

      Private credit for sure. Some folks in RE for sure, in crypto yes for sure not as bad as August but still there.

      See here's what baffles me; it looks to me like we have a deflationary micro inside an inflationary macro. 

      Deflationary, all the recession gong there banging the heck out of. 

      But everything else screams inflationary yet the markets don't seem to be reflecting. 

      The administration constantly talks of inflationary desires; deregulation of lending, opening up more lending, opening up more capital access for more housing, more, more, more. And then tails off how all this will make things so much cheaper..... Ah whaaa? Since when does inflation actions = cheaper? 

      Assorted wars and hostilities, severance of global trade in several ways to effect USA onshoring. Again, all inflationary. Heck just the "Made in America" is an inflationary statement far as assets are concerned because as any econ-anything knows exporters don't get to enjoy a strong currency, they need a weaker one, a devalued one, so everyone buys from them. Strong currency does not = strong exports. It makes expensive exports, which makes for less. 

      It's just all so weird, there is so many oxymorons flying around at all times it makes one wonder if there is no parents driving any of the things anymore. 

      And we got this political party hanging onto power by the skin of there teeth nearing major times of power decisions. That also = inflationary actions per the standard play-book. Because you need a good running economy. How do you get that perception, fast..... Ya make-it-rain. 

      And the differing political party striving to gain power control back. How do they do that, MAKE-IT-RAIN..... 

      Already seeing messaging of this starting in preparations for November. 

      But yet the market is acting as if all signals are deflationary. As if austerity is on the cusp. 

      Manic depressive bi-polar economics, ye-haww!

      0Reply
    • James Hamling
      Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
      5mo
      Quote from @V.G Jason:

      Good to ignore, but the noise will play longer than we think.

      Subtle things like SpaceX and Open AI may rock the s&p. And that kind of issue will be long duration. Longer if we see Sam has just dropped a bomb on public markets that Apollo tried to do but no one, literally no one, bit on in ETF form.

      Right now all forces are pushing deflationary. Just how deep does it go. House of cards, whose over levered & extended right now and where?

      Private credit for sure. Some folks in RE for sure, in crypto yes for sure not as bad as August but still there.


      An analyst I track just said the market is pricing in a 99% probability at next fed meeting they leave rates untouched. 

      Ugh..... 

      There is fashionably late. Annoyingly late. Insultingly late. And then Fed-Resv late....... 

      Oil up won't cause 1:10th as much inflation as it will demand destruction. Ok, maybe not to that extreme a level but the point is still valid. The FED is ignoring all signals to get proactive to instead sit on thumbs until it's past-due for actions. 

      25bps is totally justified as things look. Or even just 10bps, a near to no impact move but it signals "hey, were actually paying attention". 

      0Reply
    • V.G JasonPro Member
      Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
      5mo
      Quote from @James Hamling:
      Quote from @V.G Jason:

      Good to ignore, but the noise will play longer than we think.

      Subtle things like SpaceX and Open AI may rock the s&p. And that kind of issue will be long duration. Longer if we see Sam has just dropped a bomb on public markets that Apollo tried to do but no one, literally no one, bit on in ETF form.

      Right now all forces are pushing deflationary. Just how deep does it go. House of cards, whose over levered & extended right now and where?

      Private credit for sure. Some folks in RE for sure, in crypto yes for sure not as bad as August but still there.


      An analyst I track just said the market is pricing in a 99% probability at next fed meeting they leave rates untouched. 

      Ugh..... 

      There is fashionably late. Annoyingly late. Insultingly late. And then Fed-Resv late....... 

      Oil up won't cause 1:10th as much inflation as it will demand destruction. Ok, maybe not to that extreme a level but the point is still valid. The FED is ignoring all signals to get proactive to instead sit on thumbs until it's past-due for actions. 

      25bps is totally justified as things look. Or even just 10bps, a near to no impact move but it signals "hey, were actually paying attention". 

      We're priced to not possibly cut until June.(23% chance). They're always late cause they're after the data. It's also likely not to happen until after Warsh.

      Lets see the delta in June & July chances post FOMC tomorrow & April 29. 

      0Reply
  • V.G JasonPro Member
    Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    5mo

    Gold is on the verge of giving back all it's gains YTD.

    For those telling me volatility is the issue, we've seen Gold go through more swings more often than the annual averages in just Q1 of 2026. We've had three 5%+ swings, and seven 2%+ swings. It's on par with 1980 volatility-- which makes sense.



    S&P & Nasdaq are about 7-10 sessions away from hitting the death cross. Large Cap Growth ETFs touched it today.  International broad markets are 3- 5 sessions away. Bitcoin is going to require the 200 dma to settle away from the posted highs-- that's April 24th. Worth checking as we get closer to that. Gold, at these levels, will take about 18-25 days worth so would not necessarily wait on that unless another technical sentiment says so.

    I stick to my points above; gold consolidates, equities crater into April. Relief is either earnings or TACO inputs such as Iran war remedy. NVIDIA's earnings are 2 months away, Microsoft& Apple about 5 weeks away. Nothing but volatility until then but can see a V-like recovery once some clarity comes into play until it stops-- the theme of this administration is lack of certainty. 

    Regardless, same sentiment this is inflationary deflation. It's trimming a lot of stuff, there's still at the end of the day the Trump put against the mid-terms. I have not seen general sentiment any worse in a long time(sans Covid). Probably not since middle of 2008.

    I have entered an Uber position anchored by options, and more Robinhood today. I'm eyeing Palantir and NVIDIA. 

    1Reply
  • V.G JasonPro Member
    Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    5mo

    Bitcoin, Equities, than Real Estate.

    Last 3 years in RE has been brutal. I think the Bitcoin market told everybody well in advanced of the downturn heading into 2026. Like I said before, one of the best leading indicators out there as a liquidity pulse.

    Clearly, I've stated the above posts of my views in both equities and bitcoin. I actually think equities may have a U, not V, shape type in recovery. At some point, the market is going to tune out the Trump nonsense and stop reacting to the back & forth. And just focus on economic fundamentals that are finally showing up in the market. 

    The market can only ignore the economy for so long. 

    I'm extremely curious on the movement and flow of real estate in H2 2026. Will it mirror H2 2022 but worse? In a lot of my markets, we're sub pricing H1 2022. And rates are about 1.5-2% higher, as an investor, with capex/opex all significantly higher. Every headwind possible is there for real estate. 

    I am hearing of people defaulting before taking low ball offers. Infact, I have even seen it. 

    3Reply
  • V.G JasonPro Member
    Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    5mo

    April 24 is just sub 3 weeks away. That's 200 days from the Oct 6 highs, so the 200 dma will start rolling off some of the highest days we've had and the new 50/200 will form.

    To see any kind of rally we need to push $69k into that, and it's likely resistance anything north of $76k. If it gets into the $73k ish mark and stabilizes there, it's definitely more constructive but likely a 4-6 month churn to break through. 

    If we stay sub $66k though, we're likely to see a breakdown. Going lower than the $59.9k support will cause a full breakdown to the low 50s, mid 40s possibly on any bearish fundamental news.

    Going into October is what I am thinking will form as a new formation up. By then, I think RE falls harder. And I think equities goes down then back up. More U than V. 

    1Reply
  • V.G JasonPro Member
    Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    4mo

    Bitcoin rallying hard here pushing past the $76k mark, let's see how long it holds. Two days away from the Oct highs sitting it's last day on the 200 dma.

    MSTR up, but still 2 weeks away from earnings. Comfortably above the 50dma and below the 200dma, we will see what May 5 brings.

    Interesting Satoshi documentary coming out today, think we go up and to the right with a bit of turbulence. Fall is when we should see much more clarity.

    3Reply
  • V.G JasonPro Member
    Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    4mo

    As we step into the peak of uncertainty regarding crypto and some mega-caps. I have and will continue to underwrite some deep ITM buy writes on tickers that I am comfortable owning for duration. 

    MSTR being one, with earnings on May 5, Fed Meeting Wednesday between those two dates likely will be in buy-write mode-- perhaps anchored by an ATM put. NVIDIA, PLTR, HOOD being some others. Tesla is fantastic at this, and I don't own Tesla unless I am being paid to and can really, really take down the cost basis. It's an option market based ticker. 

    Really capture the IV on the sell side on the leaps, and likely will re-enter by capturing the sell side of the ATM puts closer to next earnings period this time in August. I feel like fall may catch some friction, impossible to tell but always stay prepared. If Q4 does face friction-- I'll make sure to anchor deep prior and capture the vol into it. Do whatever it takes to negate my cost basis on tickers I will sit on.

    I have one defined risk bearish trade put on as a hedge against it all against the Nasdaq; hopefully I lose on that. 

    1Reply
    • James Hamling
      Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
      4mo
      Quote from @V.G Jason:

      As we step into the peak of uncertainty regarding crypto and some mega-caps. I have and will continue to underwrite some deep ITM buy writes on tickers that I am comfortable owning for duration. 

      MSTR being one, with earnings on May 5, Fed Meeting Wednesday between those two dates likely will be in buy-write mode-- perhaps anchored by an ATM put. NVIDIA, PLTR, HOOD being some others. Tesla is fantastic at this, and I don't own Tesla unless I am being paid to and can really, really take down the cost basis. It's an option market based ticker. 

      Really capture the IV on the sell side on the leaps, and likely will re-enter by capturing the sell side of the ATM puts closer to next earnings period this time in August. I feel like fall may catch some friction, impossible to tell but always stay prepared. If Q4 does face friction-- I'll make sure to anchor deep prior and capture the vol into it. Do whatever it takes to negate my cost basis on tickers I will sit on.

      I have one defined risk bearish trade put on as a hedge against it all against the Nasdaq; hopefully I lose on that. 


      NASDAQ/M2 has us pressed tight against the ceiling. LT historical trendline, tight against the ceiling, very close to it, or just piercing it, all over the market on major market movers, major names, major indices. 

      NVDA and many others, on the daily has this non-stop day after day after days big, constant march up, some other names even with gap's up, Up, UP and what's so key here, no consolidation quotient to it..... 

      Meaning, all floating on this kind of cloud of sentiment, really. 

      All at exact same time BTC is looking all but perfectly situated to "activate" a next leg down on the Macro, a bearish macro that has long hung out there with a bullish micro working within it. 

      I've heard countless talk of this MSTR earnings report..... Earnings on what? Of what? MSTR is effectively just a crypto savings account, that sells fractional ownership of that account. At simplest simplification of it, that's all it is. As any with a savings account knows, the earnings on such is a pittance in comparison to the held principle. 

      No picture that savings account, instead of holding money, let's say it holds boats. 

      That it's a savings account, where some guy with a not so great track record says "hey, boats are awesome and really cool, give me your money, and I'm gonna buy MORE boats with it, in echange I'll give you a % ownership of the whole thing, and I'm gonna keep buying more boats, so it's "worth more"" that's MSTR. 

      Problem is, boats were the coolest most trendy thing, everybody wanted one, talked about, posted about boats boats boats. Aaaand not so much anymore. 

      People have kind of gotten over it in large part. Figured out unless live in very specific situations, your not gonna be driving a boat back n forth replacing a car (USD). That as cool as boats vs cars seemed, turns out the utility, actually putting it into practice, yeah, not half the hype it was hyped up to be. 

      100%, there is still a use case for boats, but it's changed, it's watered down (pun intended). 

      General sentiment is more and more age related, which it was to begin with BUT now we have early adopters even loosing a shine to it all. And it's that inconvenient truth, lack of utility AND, volatility. 

      So while a few say boats are gonna be worth 10X more "just around the corner", they are broken records, we see that now, they've always said that and, repeatedly they wern't, boat values went DOWN. 

      Not to mention there is now about 47K (real number) makers of boats (crypto). 

      So no, I don't see earnings being some big driver to any upside, and if anything I could see a catalyst for downside. 

      And funny part is, as the "Boat Savings Account" started to near going under value, what did they do? Bought up a slew of cars (USD) to assure they were solvent, lol. How ironic that the anti-car (usd) movement went too cars (USD) as the "guarantee" of safety and security. 

      When people start taking their compensation in crypto, I'll lend a lot more credence to there conviction of it, as of yet all the crypto preachers do what they do for dollars. Miners do it for dollars. Saylor does it for dollars. Everyone simply uses crypto as a vehicle to get more dollars. Kind of hard to replace a thing, when your existence revolves around that thing. 

      To me, crypto has just proven ever-so-more it's a digital tulip. 

      0Reply
    • James Hamling
      Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
      4mo
      Quote from @V.G Jason:

      As we step into the peak of uncertainty regarding crypto and some mega-caps. I have and will continue to underwrite some deep ITM buy writes on tickers that I am comfortable owning for duration. 

      MSTR being one, with earnings on May 5, Fed Meeting Wednesday between those two dates likely will be in buy-write mode-- perhaps anchored by an ATM put. NVIDIA, PLTR, HOOD being some others. Tesla is fantastic at this, and I don't own Tesla unless I am being paid to and can really, really take down the cost basis. It's an option market based ticker. 

      Really capture the IV on the sell side on the leaps, and likely will re-enter by capturing the sell side of the ATM puts closer to next earnings period this time in August. I feel like fall may catch some friction, impossible to tell but always stay prepared. If Q4 does face friction-- I'll make sure to anchor deep prior and capture the vol into it. Do whatever it takes to negate my cost basis on tickers I will sit on.

      I have one defined risk bearish trade put on as a hedge against it all against the Nasdaq; hopefully I lose on that. 


      NASDAQ/M2 has us pressed tight against the ceiling. LT historical trendline, tight against the ceiling, very close to it, or just piercing it, all over the market on major market movers, major names, major indices. 

      NVDA and many others, on the daily has this non-stop day after day after days big, constant march up, some other names even with gap's up, Up, UP and what's so key here, no consolidation quotient to it..... 

      Meaning, all floating on this kind of cloud of sentiment, really. 

      All at exact same time BTC is looking all but perfectly situated to "activate" a next leg down on the Macro, a bearish macro that has long hung out there with a bullish micro working within it. 

      I've heard countless talk of this MSTR earnings report..... Earnings on what? Of what? MSTR is effectively just a crypto savings account, that sells fractional ownership of that account. At simplest simplification of it, that's all it is. As any with a savings account knows, the earnings on such is a pittance in comparison to the held principle. 

      No picture that savings account, instead of holding money, let's say it holds boats. 

      That it's a savings account, where some guy with a not so great track record says "hey, boats are awesome and really cool, give me your money, and I'm gonna buy MORE boats with it, in echange I'll give you a % ownership of the whole thing, and I'm gonna keep buying more boats, so it's "worth more"" that's MSTR. 

      Problem is, boats were the coolest most trendy thing, everybody wanted one, talked about, posted about boats boats boats. Aaaand not so much anymore. 

      People have kind of gotten over it in large part. Figured out unless live in very specific situations, your not gonna be driving a boat back n forth replacing a car (USD). That as cool as boats vs cars seemed, turns out the utility, actually putting it into practice, yeah, not half the hype it was hyped up to be. 

      100%, there is still a use case for boats, but it's changed, it's watered down (pun intended). 

      General sentiment is more and more age related, which it was to begin with BUT now we have early adopters even loosing a shine to it all. And it's that inconvenient truth, lack of utility AND, volatility. 

      So while a few say boats are gonna be worth 10X more "just around the corner", they are broken records, we see that now, they've always said that and, repeatedly they wern't, boat values went DOWN. 

      Not to mention there is now about 47K (real number) makers of boats (crypto). 

      So no, I don't see earnings being some big driver to any upside, and if anything I could see a catalyst for downside. 

      And funny part is, as the "Boat Savings Account" started to near going under value, what did they do? Bought up a slew of cars (USD) to assure they were solvent, lol. How ironic that the anti-car (usd) movement went too cars (USD) as the "guarantee" of safety and security. 

      When people start taking their compensation in crypto, I'll lend a lot more credence to there conviction of it, as of yet all the crypto preachers do what they do for dollars. Miners do it for dollars. Saylor does it for dollars. Everyone simply uses crypto as a vehicle to get more dollars. Kind of hard to replace a thing, when your existence revolves around that thing. 

      To me, crypto has just proven ever-so-more it's a digital tulip. 

      0Reply
    • V.G JasonPro Member
      Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
      4mo
      Quote from @James Hamling:
      Quote from @V.G Jason:

      As we step into the peak of uncertainty regarding crypto and some mega-caps. I have and will continue to underwrite some deep ITM buy writes on tickers that I am comfortable owning for duration. 

      MSTR being one, with earnings on May 5, Fed Meeting Wednesday between those two dates likely will be in buy-write mode-- perhaps anchored by an ATM put. NVIDIA, PLTR, HOOD being some others. Tesla is fantastic at this, and I don't own Tesla unless I am being paid to and can really, really take down the cost basis. It's an option market based ticker. 

      Really capture the IV on the sell side on the leaps, and likely will re-enter by capturing the sell side of the ATM puts closer to next earnings period this time in August. I feel like fall may catch some friction, impossible to tell but always stay prepared. If Q4 does face friction-- I'll make sure to anchor deep prior and capture the vol into it. Do whatever it takes to negate my cost basis on tickers I will sit on.

      I have one defined risk bearish trade put on as a hedge against it all against the Nasdaq; hopefully I lose on that. 


      NASDAQ/M2 has us pressed tight against the ceiling. LT historical trendline, tight against the ceiling, very close to it, or just piercing it, all over the market on major market movers, major names, major indices. 

      NVDA and many others, on the daily has this non-stop day after day after days big, constant march up, some other names even with gap's up, Up, UP and what's so key here, no consolidation quotient to it..... 

      Meaning, all floating on this kind of cloud of sentiment, really. 

      All at exact same time BTC is looking all but perfectly situated to "activate" a next leg down on the Macro, a bearish macro that has long hung out there with a bullish micro working within it. 

      I've heard countless talk of this MSTR earnings report..... Earnings on what? Of what? MSTR is effectively just a crypto savings account, that sells fractional ownership of that account. At simplest simplification of it, that's all it is. As any with a savings account knows, the earnings on such is a pittance in comparison to the held principle. 

      No picture that savings account, instead of holding money, let's say it holds boats. 

      That it's a savings account, where some guy with a not so great track record says "hey, boats are awesome and really cool, give me your money, and I'm gonna buy MORE boats with it, in echange I'll give you a % ownership of the whole thing, and I'm gonna keep buying more boats, so it's "worth more"" that's MSTR. 

      Problem is, boats were the coolest most trendy thing, everybody wanted one, talked about, posted about boats boats boats. Aaaand not so much anymore. 

      People have kind of gotten over it in large part. Figured out unless live in very specific situations, your not gonna be driving a boat back n forth replacing a car (USD). That as cool as boats vs cars seemed, turns out the utility, actually putting it into practice, yeah, not half the hype it was hyped up to be. 

      100%, there is still a use case for boats, but it's changed, it's watered down (pun intended). 

      General sentiment is more and more age related, which it was to begin with BUT now we have early adopters even loosing a shine to it all. And it's that inconvenient truth, lack of utility AND, volatility. 

      So while a few say boats are gonna be worth 10X more "just around the corner", they are broken records, we see that now, they've always said that and, repeatedly they wern't, boat values went DOWN. 

      Not to mention there is now about 47K (real number) makers of boats (crypto). 

      So no, I don't see earnings being some big driver to any upside, and if anything I could see a catalyst for downside. 

      And funny part is, as the "Boat Savings Account" started to near going under value, what did they do? Bought up a slew of cars (USD) to assure they were solvent, lol. How ironic that the anti-car (usd) movement went too cars (USD) as the "guarantee" of safety and security. 

      When people start taking their compensation in crypto, I'll lend a lot more credence to there conviction of it, as of yet all the crypto preachers do what they do for dollars. Miners do it for dollars. Saylor does it for dollars. Everyone simply uses crypto as a vehicle to get more dollars. Kind of hard to replace a thing, when your existence revolves around that thing. 

      To me, crypto has just proven ever-so-more it's a digital tulip. 


       You're trading volatility with the MSTR earnings, not directional. Lots of earnings this week, capturing the volatility is everything.

      0Reply
    • James Hamling
      Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
      4mo
      Quote from @V.G Jason:
      Quote from @James Hamling:
      Quote from @V.G Jason:

      As we step into the peak of uncertainty regarding crypto and some mega-caps. I have and will continue to underwrite some deep ITM buy writes on tickers that I am comfortable owning for duration. 

      MSTR being one, with earnings on May 5, Fed Meeting Wednesday between those two dates likely will be in buy-write mode-- perhaps anchored by an ATM put. NVIDIA, PLTR, HOOD being some others. Tesla is fantastic at this, and I don't own Tesla unless I am being paid to and can really, really take down the cost basis. It's an option market based ticker. 

      Really capture the IV on the sell side on the leaps, and likely will re-enter by capturing the sell side of the ATM puts closer to next earnings period this time in August. I feel like fall may catch some friction, impossible to tell but always stay prepared. If Q4 does face friction-- I'll make sure to anchor deep prior and capture the vol into it. Do whatever it takes to negate my cost basis on tickers I will sit on.

      I have one defined risk bearish trade put on as a hedge against it all against the Nasdaq; hopefully I lose on that. 


      NASDAQ/M2 has us pressed tight against the ceiling. LT historical trendline, tight against the ceiling, very close to it, or just piercing it, all over the market on major market movers, major names, major indices. 

      NVDA and many others, on the daily has this non-stop day after day after days big, constant march up, some other names even with gap's up, Up, UP and what's so key here, no consolidation quotient to it..... 

      Meaning, all floating on this kind of cloud of sentiment, really. 

      All at exact same time BTC is looking all but perfectly situated to "activate" a next leg down on the Macro, a bearish macro that has long hung out there with a bullish micro working within it. 

      I've heard countless talk of this MSTR earnings report..... Earnings on what? Of what? MSTR is effectively just a crypto savings account, that sells fractional ownership of that account. At simplest simplification of it, that's all it is. As any with a savings account knows, the earnings on such is a pittance in comparison to the held principle. 

      No picture that savings account, instead of holding money, let's say it holds boats. 

      That it's a savings account, where some guy with a not so great track record says "hey, boats are awesome and really cool, give me your money, and I'm gonna buy MORE boats with it, in echange I'll give you a % ownership of the whole thing, and I'm gonna keep buying more boats, so it's "worth more"" that's MSTR. 

      Problem is, boats were the coolest most trendy thing, everybody wanted one, talked about, posted about boats boats boats. Aaaand not so much anymore. 

      People have kind of gotten over it in large part. Figured out unless live in very specific situations, your not gonna be driving a boat back n forth replacing a car (USD). That as cool as boats vs cars seemed, turns out the utility, actually putting it into practice, yeah, not half the hype it was hyped up to be. 

      100%, there is still a use case for boats, but it's changed, it's watered down (pun intended). 

      General sentiment is more and more age related, which it was to begin with BUT now we have early adopters even loosing a shine to it all. And it's that inconvenient truth, lack of utility AND, volatility. 

      So while a few say boats are gonna be worth 10X more "just around the corner", they are broken records, we see that now, they've always said that and, repeatedly they wern't, boat values went DOWN. 

      Not to mention there is now about 47K (real number) makers of boats (crypto). 

      So no, I don't see earnings being some big driver to any upside, and if anything I could see a catalyst for downside. 

      And funny part is, as the "Boat Savings Account" started to near going under value, what did they do? Bought up a slew of cars (USD) to assure they were solvent, lol. How ironic that the anti-car (usd) movement went too cars (USD) as the "guarantee" of safety and security. 

      When people start taking their compensation in crypto, I'll lend a lot more credence to there conviction of it, as of yet all the crypto preachers do what they do for dollars. Miners do it for dollars. Saylor does it for dollars. Everyone simply uses crypto as a vehicle to get more dollars. Kind of hard to replace a thing, when your existence revolves around that thing. 

      To me, crypto has just proven ever-so-more it's a digital tulip. 


       You're trading volatility with the MSTR earnings, not directional. Lots of earnings this week, capturing the volatility is everything.


      Which/what volatility are you thinking? 

      As you and I know the BTC, and with it MSTR, narrative has changed how many times now. For some time was sold as a hedge against the market. 
      Well, that bubble burst after the how many'th time BTC was found to move in all but lock step with the broader market. 

      MSTR is now a snake eating itself on it's narrative, as concentrates BTC it's an oxymoron, or I should say ever more so recognized as an oxymoron, or the narrative Saylor was slinging. Not sure what Saylors stance is at the moment, he's gotten much more..... measured, regulated, in his words as of recent. 
      Having to enact layers of emergency measures and protocols while spinning them as "no big deal" and just "prudent never-gonna-happen what-if measures" probably has a way of that.

      The following days and weeks will be the weigh-in, but my observations and opinion is BTC, and with it MSTR, is in the declining days of things. I see engagement, activity and popularity ever waning, harder to drive interests, with ever decreasing duration of that necessary attention. 

      MSTR exist's off OPM. A top trending chatter with MSTR is now getting back to whole so one can exit, not the "were gonna be rich" chatter that once dominated. 

      A slow bleed, not a sudden stroke, not in the immediacy. 

      But BTC leg's down to the highly expected 50k range, and with it MSTR back into the "danger zone", cardiac arrest may be back on the menu in 1 form or another. 

      In a world of probabilities, there is just so much math against Saylor and MSTR. 

      And to be honest, the more rapid the demise, all the better for BTC. 

      0Reply
    • V.G JasonPro Member
      Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
      4mo
      Quote from @James Hamling:
      Quote from @V.G Jason:
      Quote from @James Hamling:
      Quote from @V.G Jason:

      As we step into the peak of uncertainty regarding crypto and some mega-caps. I have and will continue to underwrite some deep ITM buy writes on tickers that I am comfortable owning for duration. 

      MSTR being one, with earnings on May 5, Fed Meeting Wednesday between those two dates likely will be in buy-write mode-- perhaps anchored by an ATM put. NVIDIA, PLTR, HOOD being some others. Tesla is fantastic at this, and I don't own Tesla unless I am being paid to and can really, really take down the cost basis. It's an option market based ticker. 

      Really capture the IV on the sell side on the leaps, and likely will re-enter by capturing the sell side of the ATM puts closer to next earnings period this time in August. I feel like fall may catch some friction, impossible to tell but always stay prepared. If Q4 does face friction-- I'll make sure to anchor deep prior and capture the vol into it. Do whatever it takes to negate my cost basis on tickers I will sit on.

      I have one defined risk bearish trade put on as a hedge against it all against the Nasdaq; hopefully I lose on that. 


      NASDAQ/M2 has us pressed tight against the ceiling. LT historical trendline, tight against the ceiling, very close to it, or just piercing it, all over the market on major market movers, major names, major indices. 

      NVDA and many others, on the daily has this non-stop day after day after days big, constant march up, some other names even with gap's up, Up, UP and what's so key here, no consolidation quotient to it..... 

      Meaning, all floating on this kind of cloud of sentiment, really. 

      All at exact same time BTC is looking all but perfectly situated to "activate" a next leg down on the Macro, a bearish macro that has long hung out there with a bullish micro working within it. 

      I've heard countless talk of this MSTR earnings report..... Earnings on what? Of what? MSTR is effectively just a crypto savings account, that sells fractional ownership of that account. At simplest simplification of it, that's all it is. As any with a savings account knows, the earnings on such is a pittance in comparison to the held principle. 

      No picture that savings account, instead of holding money, let's say it holds boats. 

      That it's a savings account, where some guy with a not so great track record says "hey, boats are awesome and really cool, give me your money, and I'm gonna buy MORE boats with it, in echange I'll give you a % ownership of the whole thing, and I'm gonna keep buying more boats, so it's "worth more"" that's MSTR. 

      Problem is, boats were the coolest most trendy thing, everybody wanted one, talked about, posted about boats boats boats. Aaaand not so much anymore. 

      People have kind of gotten over it in large part. Figured out unless live in very specific situations, your not gonna be driving a boat back n forth replacing a car (USD). That as cool as boats vs cars seemed, turns out the utility, actually putting it into practice, yeah, not half the hype it was hyped up to be. 

      100%, there is still a use case for boats, but it's changed, it's watered down (pun intended). 

      General sentiment is more and more age related, which it was to begin with BUT now we have early adopters even loosing a shine to it all. And it's that inconvenient truth, lack of utility AND, volatility. 

      So while a few say boats are gonna be worth 10X more "just around the corner", they are broken records, we see that now, they've always said that and, repeatedly they wern't, boat values went DOWN. 

      Not to mention there is now about 47K (real number) makers of boats (crypto). 

      So no, I don't see earnings being some big driver to any upside, and if anything I could see a catalyst for downside. 

      And funny part is, as the "Boat Savings Account" started to near going under value, what did they do? Bought up a slew of cars (USD) to assure they were solvent, lol. How ironic that the anti-car (usd) movement went too cars (USD) as the "guarantee" of safety and security. 

      When people start taking their compensation in crypto, I'll lend a lot more credence to there conviction of it, as of yet all the crypto preachers do what they do for dollars. Miners do it for dollars. Saylor does it for dollars. Everyone simply uses crypto as a vehicle to get more dollars. Kind of hard to replace a thing, when your existence revolves around that thing. 

      To me, crypto has just proven ever-so-more it's a digital tulip. 


       You're trading volatility with the MSTR earnings, not directional. Lots of earnings this week, capturing the volatility is everything.


      Which/what volatility are you thinking? 

      As you and I know the BTC, and with it MSTR, narrative has changed how many times now. For some time was sold as a hedge against the market. 
      Well, that bubble burst after the how many'th time BTC was found to move in all but lock step with the broader market. 

      MSTR is now a snake eating itself on it's narrative, as concentrates BTC it's an oxymoron, or I should say ever more so recognized as an oxymoron, or the narrative Saylor was slinging. Not sure what Saylors stance is at the moment, he's gotten much more..... measured, regulated, in his words as of recent. 
      Having to enact layers of emergency measures and protocols while spinning them as "no big deal" and just "prudent never-gonna-happen what-if measures" probably has a way of that.

      The following days and weeks will be the weigh-in, but my observations and opinion is BTC, and with it MSTR, is in the declining days of things. I see engagement, activity and popularity ever waning, harder to drive interests, with ever decreasing duration of that necessary attention. 

      MSTR exist's off OPM. A top trending chatter with MSTR is now getting back to whole so one can exit, not the "were gonna be rich" chatter that once dominated. 

      A slow bleed, not a sudden stroke, not in the immediacy. 

      But BTC leg's down to the highly expected 50k range, and with it MSTR back into the "danger zone", cardiac arrest may be back on the menu in 1 form or another. 

      In a world of probabilities, there is just so much math against Saylor and MSTR. 

      And to be honest, the more rapid the demise, all the better for BTC. 


      The 80%+ min IV down the option chain is the beauty. MSTR's pure purpose is to trade BTC vol. Buy Bitcoin, short MSTR we've talked as a spread trade for time. Now the trade is simply the staying delta neutral and pairing long/short vol.

      We will agree on the demise of Saylor. Only person that will face that wrath sooner or as hard will be Altman.

      2Reply
  • V.G JasonPro Member
    Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    4mo

    Almost a week past earnings, MSTR hasn't touched it's 50 DMA for a long time. We've been at a supressed VIX level relative to the headlines so it's not a matter of if, but when, we see it spike and we need to see how BTC &  MSTR reach. As it grows or goes sideways daily, the more the 50/200 become a convergence. It's first real vol test will see if it's all air or if it's just turbulence. 

    NVIDA earnings in 9 days. Memory stocks have lifted up and to the right like a hockey stick; this kind of demand usually leads to quicker mean reversion that expectations but I still don't see the fundamentals changing for 6-8 months.

    Personally, still playing earnings seasons in a full option triangle. Never telling anyone what to do, am still bullish BTC and bearish MSTR. Buying the keys until we hit $84k and sit there or blast up for 5-7 days, then going strictly into IBIT plays. Trimming my short on MSTR but also adding tail premium to the plate.

    0Reply
  • V.G JasonPro Member
    Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    3mo

    SpaceX IPO is imminent. Space stocks went parabolic upon more defined time line, now some profit taking up into it and this yo-yo of events such as Blue Origin failure.

    AI is here, Space is next on the equity chain of events. IBIT just went under the 50 DMA, software stocks grabbing legs after extreme exhaustion. Slowest turn around for that, that I can remember. I think we see some bullish activity up into mid-terms, harsh correction, then possibly great gains in the terms after that.  Bitcoin getting some red action after Saylor the failure does a little selling. Watching BTC Oct-Nov26 is going to be really interesting with all theories--4  year cycle, mid term, etc.


    I think we actually might be early, not topping it's really hard to tell obviously. The question is how much of this is going to be realized; it's a power, chip, natural resource bottle neck that could in a domino way rally the entire economy or destroy it. I just think the floor is government funding intervention which gives it a pretty strong backbone.

    1Reply
  • V.G JasonPro Member
    Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    2mo

    Crazy how a 2-3 MTD dip creates such panic in the market.

    The rookies of equities remind me of rookies in other asset classes. 

    As time goes on, RE is getting more attractive. Curious on how BTC fairs--thinking lower lows before the mid terms. 

    Moving into RE in some markets and expect it to ramp up as we get out of July 4.

    2Reply
  • V.G JasonPro Member
    Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    2mo

    Setting up tranches of option strateiges to define my risk at $0, upside at about $500-600 per contract for a 170-day, near year end expiry (12/18/2026) against MSTR.

    If it actively crashes, I lose nothing. If it rallies vertically, I have capped upside. Layering to these at a rate of 50-100 contracts per interval. 

    Opportunity cost is acknowledged but small % of the pie to get some exposure.

    Closing out my shorts on MSTRs concurrently. And may take some of the profit into a option short strategy rather than directional. Via closing out the short call, selling shares and keeping the long put. We will see. Or just directionally long puts. Still thinking blood in Oct-Nov with mid terms.

    Actively watching Nvidia approach the 200dma after breaking the 50dma. Earnings is 60 days away will play into this.

    Set orders to take some BTC if we breach $54, $50, and $46. Have added at $59.

    0Reply
    • James Hamling
      Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
      2mo
      Quote from @V.G Jason:

      Setting up tranches of option strateiges to define my risk at $0, upside at about $500-600 per contract for a 170-day, near year end expiry (12/18/2026) against MSTR.

      If it actively crashes, I lose nothing. If it rallies vertically, I have capped upside. Layering to these at a rate of 50-100 contracts per interval. 

      Opportunity cost is acknowledged but small % of the pie to get some exposure.

      Closing out my shorts on MSTRs concurrently. And may take some of the profit into a option short strategy rather than directional. Via closing out the short call, selling shares and keeping the long put. We will see. Or just directionally long puts. Still thinking blood in Oct-Nov with mid terms.

      Actively watching Nvidia approach the 200dma after breaking the 50dma. Earnings is 60 days away will play into this.

      Set orders to take some BTC if we breach $54, $50, and $46. Have added at $59.


      BTC is throwing a very bearish look. $60k support broken, now turned resistance. Anemic bounces. And most recently, at least as of this writing, one heck of a shooting star on the 1hr which is a bearish reversal after a short-term attempt up (can't really call 58k too 60k a rally can we).

      I get the play of throwing a few things out there with tight stops just for the "what-ever" play but BTC breaking down from 58K, no-way would I touch it anywhere above 50k as it's all but a certainty the 40k's are inbound in that scenario.  

      And as for MSTR..... "Let it go, LET IT GO" lol. Let it run to $0, because Saylor is stuck with BTC nearing $40k's to either mega dilute, or sell BTC, either of which open the door of a total confidence and valuation melt-down. 

      At this point the only thing I can see "saving" BTC is a BlackSwan, like China declares BTC national currency or some insanity bizaro-verse "never gonna happen" kind of thing. Or the flush out and cleansing of the assorted Saylor-scams. 

      I say why risk it when there is so many simple solid plays out there. Sell put's to take best position, or the cash, in LT solid operators. Leave the speculations for the gamblers. Sell OTM calls on positions held, rinse and repeat monthly or quarterly. 

      Simple strategy to achieve 24%+ annual returns. 

      0Reply
    • V.G JasonPro Member
      Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
      2mo
      Quote from @James Hamling:
      Quote from @V.G Jason:

      Setting up tranches of option strateiges to define my risk at $0, upside at about $500-600 per contract for a 170-day, near year end expiry (12/18/2026) against MSTR.

      If it actively crashes, I lose nothing. If it rallies vertically, I have capped upside. Layering to these at a rate of 50-100 contracts per interval. 

      Opportunity cost is acknowledged but small % of the pie to get some exposure.

      Closing out my shorts on MSTRs concurrently. And may take some of the profit into a option short strategy rather than directional. Via closing out the short call, selling shares and keeping the long put. We will see. Or just directionally long puts. Still thinking blood in Oct-Nov with mid terms.

      Actively watching Nvidia approach the 200dma after breaking the 50dma. Earnings is 60 days away will play into this.

      Set orders to take some BTC if we breach $54, $50, and $46. Have added at $59.


      BTC is throwing a very bearish look. $60k support broken, now turned resistance. Anemic bounces. And most recently, at least as of this writing, one heck of a shooting star on the 1hr which is a bearish reversal after a short-term attempt up (can't really call 58k too 60k a rally can we).

      I get the play of throwing a few things out there with tight stops just for the "what-ever" play but BTC breaking down from 58K, no-way would I touch it anywhere above 50k as it's all but a certainty the 40k's are inbound in that scenario.  

      And as for MSTR..... "Let it go, LET IT GO" lol. Let it run to $0, because Saylor is stuck with BTC nearing $40k's to either mega dilute, or sell BTC, either of which open the door of a total confidence and valuation melt-down. 

      At this point the only thing I can see "saving" BTC is a BlackSwan, like China declares BTC national currency or some insanity bizaro-verse "never gonna happen" kind of thing. Or the flush out and cleansing of the assorted Saylor-scams. 

      I say why risk it when there is so many simple solid plays out there. Sell put's to take best position, or the cash, in LT solid operators. Leave the speculations for the gamblers. Sell OTM calls on positions held, rinse and repeat monthly or quarterly. 

      Simple strategy to achieve 24%+ annual returns. 


       Seeing Saylor flush will be a sight. Per his memorandum, he needs to sell BTC to buy mstr given adjusted valuation. 

      Institutional volume is gapped from 58 to 40. But if 58 breaks, volume will step in.

      0Reply
    • James Hamling
      Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
      2mo
      Quote from @V.G Jason:
      Quote from @James Hamling:
      Quote from @V.G Jason:

      Setting up tranches of option strateiges to define my risk at $0, upside at about $500-600 per contract for a 170-day, near year end expiry (12/18/2026) against MSTR.

      If it actively crashes, I lose nothing. If it rallies vertically, I have capped upside. Layering to these at a rate of 50-100 contracts per interval. 

      Opportunity cost is acknowledged but small % of the pie to get some exposure.

      Closing out my shorts on MSTRs concurrently. And may take some of the profit into a option short strategy rather than directional. Via closing out the short call, selling shares and keeping the long put. We will see. Or just directionally long puts. Still thinking blood in Oct-Nov with mid terms.

      Actively watching Nvidia approach the 200dma after breaking the 50dma. Earnings is 60 days away will play into this.

      Set orders to take some BTC if we breach $54, $50, and $46. Have added at $59.


      BTC is throwing a very bearish look. $60k support broken, now turned resistance. Anemic bounces. And most recently, at least as of this writing, one heck of a shooting star on the 1hr which is a bearish reversal after a short-term attempt up (can't really call 58k too 60k a rally can we).

      I get the play of throwing a few things out there with tight stops just for the "what-ever" play but BTC breaking down from 58K, no-way would I touch it anywhere above 50k as it's all but a certainty the 40k's are inbound in that scenario.  

      And as for MSTR..... "Let it go, LET IT GO" lol. Let it run to $0, because Saylor is stuck with BTC nearing $40k's to either mega dilute, or sell BTC, either of which open the door of a total confidence and valuation melt-down. 

      At this point the only thing I can see "saving" BTC is a BlackSwan, like China declares BTC national currency or some insanity bizaro-verse "never gonna happen" kind of thing. Or the flush out and cleansing of the assorted Saylor-scams. 

      I say why risk it when there is so many simple solid plays out there. Sell put's to take best position, or the cash, in LT solid operators. Leave the speculations for the gamblers. Sell OTM calls on positions held, rinse and repeat monthly or quarterly. 

      Simple strategy to achieve 24%+ annual returns. 


       Seeing Saylor flush will be a sight. Per his memorandum, he needs to sell BTC to buy mstr given adjusted valuation. 

      Institutional volume is gapped from 58 to 40. But if 58 breaks, volume will step in.

      Well, as of this writing we are retesting $58k so may find out sooner than later. 
      Got down to 58,245. When keep knocking on a level, eventually, things happen. 

      Personally, the only place I'd get pulled to jump in, having a conviction that volume is bound to get in, is 37k and under. That's what chart analysis says, and has said for months, from the H&S breakdown and then it's just been additional signals and indicators correlating. 

      There is a few things in the 40's, so by no means 30's is not a sure thing at all. But 50's is even less of a sure thing for a bottoming pivot. Hence why MSTR team is getting into plan Z type actions as they know as well, very high probability were gonna see 40's here soon if a serious rally doesn't happen soon, which there is zero indication or catalyst for. 

      And moreover, I think the prevailing powers of W.S.; the market makers and whales who live in the shadows, I think they really dislike Saylor. Hey, join the club, right, lol. But seriously, nobody is coming to his rescue it seems. 
      The entire move of Saylor selling BTC was clearly stated that it's primary function is to cover the "big money" not the common stock holders. 
      Another indicator of whats to come. 

      But hey, at this point I'm just color comentary; I cleared my MSTR shorts the other day, took my profits (thank you Saylor) and am just sitting sidelines for now. If see a ☠️😼 bounce I'll short again, but I'm not really looking or forcing any kind of trade here, just taking it as it comes. 
      0Reply
  • V.G JasonPro Member
    Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    2mo

    It's a combo of not liking Saylor, front running an expected hiking situation, and mid terms. 4 year cycle folks at play too always expecting and wanting a -80% from ath around Oct 26. The chart analysis are just mimicking that.

    If we get into a liquidity event, he'll just rug pull these preferred stock products he's created. That's plan Z.

    Still a binary bet, and shaking these folks out is going to do long term good for Bitcoin. Saylor the player, or should I say failure, epitomizing over levered.

    0Reply
    • James Hamling
      Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
      2mo
      Quote from @V.G Jason:

      It's a combo of not liking Saylor, front running an expected hiking situation, and mid terms. 4 year cycle folks at play too always expecting and wanting a -80% from ath around Oct 26. The chart analysis are just mimicking that.

      If we get into a liquidity event, he'll just rug pull these preferred stock products he's created. That's plan Z.

      Still a binary bet, and shaking these folks out is going to do long term good for Bitcoin. Saylor the player, or should I say failure, epitomizing over levered.


      You have your thoughts, motives, directions, intent etc etc, as do I. English is simply the medium, the language we are using to communicate all of that. English is not the reasoning or source, it's the medium of communicating. 

      Chart Analysis is simply a study of what the market, stock, crypto etc. is communicating. Like those persons who go out to whatever discovered tomb to try and sort out some dead language. We know it's saying something, but nobody has a clue what, so there is all these things one does to try and decipher it all. 

      So I wouldn't say chart analysis is ever mimicking anything, the charts are the charts, all that changes is our comprehension of what there saying, and when. If were ahead of the ball, or in retrospect. 

      After all my time of all my analysis done, I still spend way more time starring at a chart, flipping timelines, scratching my head saying "WTF are you doing?" lol, than I do just instantly seeing a clear statement. 

      BTC is now showing us something I have rarely seen; nested H&S across daily and weekly. What that says is very high probability of a major drop coming over next weeks and months, and it's just begun. 

      It's kind of hard to wrap the head around because of the epic decline already but remove all emotion, that's what the chart is showing us; a multi-month bleed-out that's not wrapping up but just getting going. Rule of thumb is taking from the top too the neckline and that's the drop inbound. Well, that put's BTC under $10k on the LT scale of things. 

      I don't dismiss the chart because it "feels" hard to swallow. I ask, HOW can that be true, WHAT would happen to make that seem to make sense. 

      Well, for starters, institutional and industry exit away from BTC. First and foremost, the miners. Interestingly enough, that has begun. Miners have begun flipping from minning to compute. Next would be institutional investors exiting. This is a bit harder to really know as the knowledge is always lagging significantly, but we do see all the indicators of retail being exit liquidity and that's how it goes down when happens. 

      BTC sentiment isn't 1:10 nor even 1:50th of what it once was. Sure, the "crypto bro's" are as die hard as ever, but I'm talking about the main street rando's who go back a couple years EVERYONE and I do mean EVERYONE was talking about BTC. Countless random people, millions upon millions who never invest in anything, were dipping toe's into the BTC side of things because of that sentiment. Today, not only has that cooled, it's all but extinct, totally extinct. 

      Could BTC go to $2k? Yes, without any doubt YES BTC could with 100% certainty drop too $2k. History has proven this out time and time again, and yet every time people have said how "impossible" such a collapse is, and then it happens. Beanie Babies, Tulips, etc etc etc.. 

      Now, again, hard for me to wrap my head around this chart, but is what it is. 

      0Reply
    • V.G JasonPro Member
      Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
      2mo
      Quote from @James Hamling:
      Quote from @V.G Jason:

      It's a combo of not liking Saylor, front running an expected hiking situation, and mid terms. 4 year cycle folks at play too always expecting and wanting a -80% from ath around Oct 26. The chart analysis are just mimicking that.

      If we get into a liquidity event, he'll just rug pull these preferred stock products he's created. That's plan Z.

      Still a binary bet, and shaking these folks out is going to do long term good for Bitcoin. Saylor the player, or should I say failure, epitomizing over levered.


      You have your thoughts, motives, directions, intent etc etc, as do I. English is simply the medium, the language we are using to communicate all of that. English is not the reasoning or source, it's the medium of communicating. 

      Chart Analysis is simply a study of what the market, stock, crypto etc. is communicating. Like those persons who go out to whatever discovered tomb to try and sort out some dead language. We know it's saying something, but nobody has a clue what, so there is all these things one does to try and decipher it all. 

      So I wouldn't say chart analysis is ever mimicking anything, the charts are the charts, all that changes is our comprehension of what there saying, and when. If were ahead of the ball, or in retrospect. 

      After all my time of all my analysis done, I still spend way more time starring at a chart, flipping timelines, scratching my head saying "WTF are you doing?" lol, than I do just instantly seeing a clear statement. 

      BTC is now showing us something I have rarely seen; nested H&S across daily and weekly. What that says is very high probability of a major drop coming over next weeks and months, and it's just begun. 

      It's kind of hard to wrap the head around because of the epic decline already but remove all emotion, that's what the chart is showing us; a multi-month bleed-out that's not wrapping up but just getting going. Rule of thumb is taking from the top too the neckline and that's the drop inbound. Well, that put's BTC under $10k on the LT scale of things. 

      I don't dismiss the chart because it "feels" hard to swallow. I ask, HOW can that be true, WHAT would happen to make that seem to make sense. 

      Well, for starters, institutional and industry exit away from BTC. First and foremost, the miners. Interestingly enough, that has begun. Miners have begun flipping from minning to compute. Next would be institutional investors exiting. This is a bit harder to really know as the knowledge is always lagging significantly, but we do see all the indicators of retail being exit liquidity and that's how it goes down when happens. 

      BTC sentiment isn't 1:10 nor even 1:50th of what it once was. Sure, the "crypto bro's" are as die hard as ever, but I'm talking about the main street rando's who go back a couple years EVERYONE and I do mean EVERYONE was talking about BTC. Countless random people, millions upon millions who never invest in anything, were dipping toe's into the BTC side of things because of that sentiment. Today, not only has that cooled, it's all but extinct, totally extinct. 

      Could BTC go to $2k? Yes, without any doubt YES BTC could with 100% certainty drop too $2k. History has proven this out time and time again, and yet every time people have said how "impossible" such a collapse is, and then it happens. Beanie Babies, Tulips, etc etc etc.. 

      Now, again, hard for me to wrap my head around this chart, but is what it is. 

      First, let’s separate chart patterns from fundamental supply and demand. A chart can draw whatever head-and-shoulders pattern it wants on a screen, but a line on a daily chart doesn't erase systemic institutional liquidity or the programmatic 4-year supply halving cycle. 

      No one at the institutional level is watching H&S enough to override fundamentals or macros.

      The miner narrative is completely misunderstood. Can speak with direct exp on this.


      Miners aren't divesting their Bitcoin ; they are leveraging interconnection queue power and grid-connected infrastructure. PJM markets are showing that and ercot soon. In fact can say some are looking at the bid side of BTC if we do see typical 4 year cycle play out.
      Miners splitting a site between ASICs and HPC isn't killing Bitcoin; they are stabilizing their cash flow with high-margin AI contracts so they don't have to forced-liquidate their BTC block rewards during market lulls. 

      It's a pure balance sheet play, and we're seeing it play out in real time with companies like CleanSpark.

      Beanie Babies & tulips never had a spot etf so its not a comparison. This is simply a market making situation. Binance depeg, halving cycle, fiscal tightening risk, lots of headwinds, Saylor ****. The bid side is shallow naturally, that's how markets work in these times.

      And randos talk about anything rallying, my barista today told me she's seeing Micron at $2000 by next earnings period. And that they'll keep raising prices on Apple that's how! She could be right, but casuals talk whats hot now more than ever.

      0Reply
    • James Hamling
      Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
      2mo
      Quote from @V.G Jason:
      Quote from @James Hamling:
      Quote from @V.G Jason:

      It's a combo of not liking Saylor, front running an expected hiking situation, and mid terms. 4 year cycle folks at play too always expecting and wanting a -80% from ath around Oct 26. The chart analysis are just mimicking that.

      If we get into a liquidity event, he'll just rug pull these preferred stock products he's created. That's plan Z.

      Still a binary bet, and shaking these folks out is going to do long term good for Bitcoin. Saylor the player, or should I say failure, epitomizing over levered.


      You have your thoughts, motives, directions, intent etc etc, as do I. English is simply the medium, the language we are using to communicate all of that. English is not the reasoning or source, it's the medium of communicating. 

      Chart Analysis is simply a study of what the market, stock, crypto etc. is communicating. Like those persons who go out to whatever discovered tomb to try and sort out some dead language. We know it's saying something, but nobody has a clue what, so there is all these things one does to try and decipher it all. 

      So I wouldn't say chart analysis is ever mimicking anything, the charts are the charts, all that changes is our comprehension of what there saying, and when. If were ahead of the ball, or in retrospect. 

      After all my time of all my analysis done, I still spend way more time starring at a chart, flipping timelines, scratching my head saying "WTF are you doing?" lol, than I do just instantly seeing a clear statement. 

      BTC is now showing us something I have rarely seen; nested H&S across daily and weekly. What that says is very high probability of a major drop coming over next weeks and months, and it's just begun. 

      It's kind of hard to wrap the head around because of the epic decline already but remove all emotion, that's what the chart is showing us; a multi-month bleed-out that's not wrapping up but just getting going. Rule of thumb is taking from the top too the neckline and that's the drop inbound. Well, that put's BTC under $10k on the LT scale of things. 

      I don't dismiss the chart because it "feels" hard to swallow. I ask, HOW can that be true, WHAT would happen to make that seem to make sense. 

      Well, for starters, institutional and industry exit away from BTC. First and foremost, the miners. Interestingly enough, that has begun. Miners have begun flipping from minning to compute. Next would be institutional investors exiting. This is a bit harder to really know as the knowledge is always lagging significantly, but we do see all the indicators of retail being exit liquidity and that's how it goes down when happens. 

      BTC sentiment isn't 1:10 nor even 1:50th of what it once was. Sure, the "crypto bro's" are as die hard as ever, but I'm talking about the main street rando's who go back a couple years EVERYONE and I do mean EVERYONE was talking about BTC. Countless random people, millions upon millions who never invest in anything, were dipping toe's into the BTC side of things because of that sentiment. Today, not only has that cooled, it's all but extinct, totally extinct. 

      Could BTC go to $2k? Yes, without any doubt YES BTC could with 100% certainty drop too $2k. History has proven this out time and time again, and yet every time people have said how "impossible" such a collapse is, and then it happens. Beanie Babies, Tulips, etc etc etc.. 

      Now, again, hard for me to wrap my head around this chart, but is what it is. 

      First, let’s separate chart patterns from fundamental supply and demand. A chart can draw whatever head-and-shoulders pattern it wants on a screen, but a line on a daily chart doesn't erase systemic institutional liquidity or the programmatic 4-year supply halving cycle. 

      No one at the institutional level is watching H&S enough to override fundamentals or macros.

      The miner narrative is completely misunderstood. Can speak with direct exp on this.


      Miners aren't divesting their Bitcoin ; they are leveraging interconnection queue power and grid-connected infrastructure. PJM markets are showing that and ercot soon. In fact can say some are looking at the bid side of BTC if we do see typical 4 year cycle play out.
      Miners splitting a site between ASICs and HPC isn't killing Bitcoin; they are stabilizing their cash flow with high-margin AI contracts so they don't have to forced-liquidate their BTC block rewards during market lulls. 

      It's a pure balance sheet play, and we're seeing it play out in real time with companies like CleanSpark.

      Beanie Babies & tulips never had a spot etf so its not a comparison. This is simply a market making situation. Binance depeg, halving cycle, fiscal tightening risk, lots of headwinds, Saylor ****. The bid side is shallow naturally, that's how markets work in these times.

      And randos talk about anything rallying, my barista today told me she's seeing Micron at $2000 by next earnings period. And that they'll keep raising prices on Apple that's how! She could be right, but casuals talk whats hot now more than ever.


      Barista giving forecast on Micron is the definitive shoe-shiner lending stock tips: aka time to sell! 

      The most universal, repeated, and reliable signal in the markets is "....this time it's different." The end result has never been any different. 

      Stops are an absolute MUST in such an environment. 

      2Reply
    • V.G JasonPro Member
      Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
      2mo
      Quote from @James Hamling:
      Quote from @V.G Jason:
      Quote from @James Hamling:
      Quote from @V.G Jason:

      It's a combo of not liking Saylor, front running an expected hiking situation, and mid terms. 4 year cycle folks at play too always expecting and wanting a -80% from ath around Oct 26. The chart analysis are just mimicking that.

      If we get into a liquidity event, he'll just rug pull these preferred stock products he's created. That's plan Z.

      Still a binary bet, and shaking these folks out is going to do long term good for Bitcoin. Saylor the player, or should I say failure, epitomizing over levered.


      You have your thoughts, motives, directions, intent etc etc, as do I. English is simply the medium, the language we are using to communicate all of that. English is not the reasoning or source, it's the medium of communicating. 

      Chart Analysis is simply a study of what the market, stock, crypto etc. is communicating. Like those persons who go out to whatever discovered tomb to try and sort out some dead language. We know it's saying something, but nobody has a clue what, so there is all these things one does to try and decipher it all. 

      So I wouldn't say chart analysis is ever mimicking anything, the charts are the charts, all that changes is our comprehension of what there saying, and when. If were ahead of the ball, or in retrospect. 

      After all my time of all my analysis done, I still spend way more time starring at a chart, flipping timelines, scratching my head saying "WTF are you doing?" lol, than I do just instantly seeing a clear statement. 

      BTC is now showing us something I have rarely seen; nested H&S across daily and weekly. What that says is very high probability of a major drop coming over next weeks and months, and it's just begun. 

      It's kind of hard to wrap the head around because of the epic decline already but remove all emotion, that's what the chart is showing us; a multi-month bleed-out that's not wrapping up but just getting going. Rule of thumb is taking from the top too the neckline and that's the drop inbound. Well, that put's BTC under $10k on the LT scale of things. 

      I don't dismiss the chart because it "feels" hard to swallow. I ask, HOW can that be true, WHAT would happen to make that seem to make sense. 

      Well, for starters, institutional and industry exit away from BTC. First and foremost, the miners. Interestingly enough, that has begun. Miners have begun flipping from minning to compute. Next would be institutional investors exiting. This is a bit harder to really know as the knowledge is always lagging significantly, but we do see all the indicators of retail being exit liquidity and that's how it goes down when happens. 

      BTC sentiment isn't 1:10 nor even 1:50th of what it once was. Sure, the "crypto bro's" are as die hard as ever, but I'm talking about the main street rando's who go back a couple years EVERYONE and I do mean EVERYONE was talking about BTC. Countless random people, millions upon millions who never invest in anything, were dipping toe's into the BTC side of things because of that sentiment. Today, not only has that cooled, it's all but extinct, totally extinct. 

      Could BTC go to $2k? Yes, without any doubt YES BTC could with 100% certainty drop too $2k. History has proven this out time and time again, and yet every time people have said how "impossible" such a collapse is, and then it happens. Beanie Babies, Tulips, etc etc etc.. 

      Now, again, hard for me to wrap my head around this chart, but is what it is. 

      First, let’s separate chart patterns from fundamental supply and demand. A chart can draw whatever head-and-shoulders pattern it wants on a screen, but a line on a daily chart doesn't erase systemic institutional liquidity or the programmatic 4-year supply halving cycle. 

      No one at the institutional level is watching H&S enough to override fundamentals or macros.

      The miner narrative is completely misunderstood. Can speak with direct exp on this.


      Miners aren't divesting their Bitcoin ; they are leveraging interconnection queue power and grid-connected infrastructure. PJM markets are showing that and ercot soon. In fact can say some are looking at the bid side of BTC if we do see typical 4 year cycle play out.
      Miners splitting a site between ASICs and HPC isn't killing Bitcoin; they are stabilizing their cash flow with high-margin AI contracts so they don't have to forced-liquidate their BTC block rewards during market lulls. 

      It's a pure balance sheet play, and we're seeing it play out in real time with companies like CleanSpark.

      Beanie Babies & tulips never had a spot etf so its not a comparison. This is simply a market making situation. Binance depeg, halving cycle, fiscal tightening risk, lots of headwinds, Saylor ****. The bid side is shallow naturally, that's how markets work in these times.

      And randos talk about anything rallying, my barista today told me she's seeing Micron at $2000 by next earnings period. And that they'll keep raising prices on Apple that's how! She could be right, but casuals talk whats hot now more than ever.


      Barista giving forecast on Micron is the definitive shoe-shiner lending stock tips: aka time to sell! 

      The most universal, repeated, and reliable signal in the markets is "....this time it's different." The end result has never been any different. 

      Stops are an absolute MUST in such an environment. 

      Funny, she said this time it's different....this morning.  What are the chances?

      All this equity talk spurred from her eavesdropping before. Now all the baristas are using WeBull and Robinhood. It's fascinating and scary. 
      2Reply
  • V.G JasonPro Member
    Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    2mo

    MSTR earnings EOM, gold just touched the death cross, the AI trade involving energy & compute is current trend. Tickers like alab and BE bigger winners. On my radar I have suppression of Impinj, Boston Scientific, among others on my view. Doubt any change short term but like the hits on it. See long term upside and some changes to my portfolio.

    Will play MSTR with Aug expiry, short ATM put. Long two OTM puts. Play the bear, re-sell ATM calls or slightly OTM if allocated. Have collars locked up. Will also pursue the q4 28/q29 when available ratio spreads long on IBIT. Long ATM calls on IBIT Nov expiry, short stock. Let's see how this shakes.

    Still (very) bearish trend on bitcoin. Always can change but this is how it sits. The depth of the 4 year cycle is in 90-120 days. No saying if the reaction is in front or during it. 

    Clarity act lost all steam, and in my opinion it's due to Donald the Grifter.

    1Reply
  • V.G JasonPro Member
    Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    1mo

    Like I said in the early parts of the thread, identify the leverage or over leverage and you can find where the issue will stem.

    Right now the market is making a full 360 in some names from post war time talks into May rally.

    You have fed meeting shortly, crude rallying and the Korean market levered to the gills and having to unwind. DRAM, a popular ETF on memory, is trading back to early May levels with major earnings for Samsung here tonight.

    It's likely going to need to find it's 200 dma before any sufficient leg up. 

    1Reply
  • V.G JasonPro Member
    Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    1mo

    MSTR earnings aftermarket today.

    Absolutely vicious rally in the AI data center trade after pressing the oversold button yesterday. Coreweave, Iren, Applied Digital, Nebius all soaring 20% + today. Still quite far from ATHs, perhaps a pump fake until we get back to 200 dma.

    MSFT earnings forced a $450 spot rally, as of this post. Meta sank with some ambiguous guidance.

    SpaceX earnings next week, MSTR today and other mag7 today and tomorrow. Vicious market but tremendous if you're trading vol.

    0Reply
  • V.G JasonPro Member
    Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    1mo

    Well, again identify the leverage. 4x margin, $1 billion to $45 billion in a short time frame.

    Leopold turned into Leofold.

    Marksman like stock picks, but the root of all collapses --- overlevered.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/30/leopold-aschenbrenners-hedge...

    Only two firms are willing to deeply hunt these moves and only one with (firm) knowledge on whose behind it. One pressed, shook down then acquired. This is like taking a yacht out to go whale hunting and you did it.


    It explains July's red story in semis and data center plays. And the massive rally once that closed up.

    Leverage and lust the root of all issues for men.  

    0Reply
  • V.G JasonPro Member
    Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    2w

    Bitcoin going through a strong pump with three tailwinds:
    1) Clarity act on deck in mid Sep
    2) Treasury daring the Fed to try to raise rates; as they swap long term debt for short term debt. 
    3) Short Squeeze

    For the Clarity Act, something tells me this is buy the rumor & sell the news type we'll see though. The short squeeze wasn't quite as devastating as the longs back in Dec25/Jan26 but still quite brutal for the billions that got liquidated. Vertical move from 63k to 77k. Let's see how BTC fairs about 4-7 days after ruling of the clarity act.

    If Kevin and the Fed crew can't qualify dropping rates, and if anything are pressed to raise rates it must face resistance. For Bessent to do this, he knew rate hikes were imminent. 
    Treasury shortening duration while daring the Fed on benchmark rates

    Let's see what happens in the meeting. Fed meeting to Midterms should be relatively bearish activity in the markets.

    NVIDA and MICRON earnings up on the deck here too.

    0Reply
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