2025 housing market gut check: Which predictions came true, and what can we expect in 2026?

Why not NV or AZ where taxes and profit are more predictable? 

Here are the biggest mistaken assumption unsophisticated investors make when contemplating an investment in a deal1- that the Sponsor is an expert in the field of investment2- that investments, economic markets, financial markets are predictable with any accuracy3- that PROJECTED returns are PROMISED / GUARANTEED returns4- that because they NEED their investment to be liquid the sponsor will provide said liquidity5- that the “deal” is more important than the sponsor.  

Even “rent-ready” properties often need:Electrical or plumbing updatesHVAC or roof planning (not always immediate, but predictable)Better inspection discipline to avoid deferred issuesConstruction knowledge inside management helps avoid repeat work.Teams that understand both tend to scope work more accurately and plan preventative maintenance instead of reacting to emergencies.Remote ownership requires visibility.Frequent inspections, photo documentation, and clear reporting matter far more when you’re not local.Ohio can absolutely work, many investors do very well here but the transition is smoother when expectations around rehab, maintenance, and ongoing oversight are realistic.Happy to connect to discuss further...

But if you can keep the project tight and predictable, you can actually pay a little more and still beat out other buyers.Funny enough, the heavier fixers with clear scopes of work are making more sense to me than the “easy” cosmetic flips.

It just tells good people: “This is going to be stressful.”Operator tone attracts operator tenants:calmdirectconsistentrespectfulbusinesslikeThe bottom lineGoodies are not an accident.They’re a result.They show up when:the property is genuinely livable and maintainedthe process feels predictable and professionalthe price matches the experiencethe personality signals “this will be smooth”So yes, build a strong filter.But if you want better tenants, especially in NYC, stop thinking like your job is to “avoid getting played.”Your job is to create an environment where the best people choose you… and then run a filter that proves they’re real.

There may be additional small investments after a few years once the cash flow at property becomes predictable, but all advice I read re: this structure, and the tax paperwork we'll need to file each year is to "keep good records."

Day-to-day management became quieter, more predictable, and far less emotionally draining.Looking AheadGoing into the new year, I feel far less like someone “house hacking” and far more like someone operating a small portfolio.

Yet, all the members would need to do would be to go look at their archives and look at the predicted gains and check if they occurred in reality and they'd find out easily that my example above is typical.There are countless people in that same situation situation and, in my humble opinion, it's about time that they swallow their pride (for having fallen for their marketing tricks) and speak up so that other people don't have to experience the same situation in the future.

Over time, that mindset has shifted as I’ve gained more experience and started valuing time, predictability, and simplicity much more.Using washers and dryers as an example, my approach today is very different.