More ARV formula explanation please

More ARV formula explanation please

Real Estate Investor · Bloomington, IN · Member since 2008 · 119 posts · 8 votes

I religiously use the ARV x 70% - repairs formula for any flip that I look into. Completed one last fall and made money. I 've only been looking at cash buys and under 100k houses up to this point.

Because of my wife and my w-2's, we're able to get mortgages now. I'm having trouble analyzing deals with this new wrinkle.

Example:

ARV 185K
Repairs 28K

185K x 70% - 28K = $101,500 Max offer

But when I play with the numbers more, I see that down payment, repairs and financing (holding and money costs) come out to just over 52K. So if I bought this house for 125K, I'd end up with a profit of:

185K - 55k (adjusted holding and money cost based on higher purchase price) - 100K (mortgage)- $11,100 (realtor) = $18,900

I'd be happy with almost 19k in profit. The ARV and the repairs are both conservative--ARV could be more based on comps and the repairs could be less. I'd be financing the whole thing through a private loan at 6%, an equity line and other credit.

I know there's mistakes in my reasoning and perhaps my math. Please point them out.

Thanks in advance!

Example

0Reply
79 views

Most Popular Reply

Rental Property Investor · Mercer Island, WA · Member since 2008 · 22k+ posts · 14k+ votes
16y

The basic rule of thumb (pay 70% of ARV or purchase plus rehab and make a profit of about 15% of ARV) makes a bunch of assumptions:

1) You're paying hard money rates for a 70% of ARV loan -> about 7% of ARV (10% of the loan amount) goes to money costs
2) You hold for about six months
3) You pay typical purchase closing costs of about 2% of the purchase price. Call that 1.5% of ARV, which is a bit high but also covers the misc costs like utilities, lawn maintenance, etc.
4) You pay typical sales closing costs also about 2%
5) You sell for ARV.
6) You pay realtor commissions of 6%

So, that looks like this:

Sell: 100%
Commissions: 6%
Selling costs: 2%
Money costs: 7%
Buy costs: 1.5%
Purchase plus rehab: 70%
Total: 86.5%
Profit: 13.5%

The cash required would typically be the money cost plus the buy costs, 7% + 1.5% = 8.5%. The selling costs and commissions come out of the sale and the loan covers purchase plus rehab. So your ROI SHOULD be 13.5% / 8.5% = 159%.

Now that's in a perfect world, and things often go wrong so the profit will go down and the cost will go up.

If you're paying cash, you eliminate the money costs. So your profit jumps to 20.5% of ARV (assuming everything else is the same). Your investment, though, becomes purchase, rehab, and buy closing costs, 71.5% of ARV. So your ROI is only 28%. Nevertheless, your cash-in-pocket for this deal is about 66% higher than using hard money.

But a better comparison is to ask what gives the best return for your available investment cash.

With hard money, you put in 8.5% of ARV. With cash, you put in 71.5% of ARV. Say you have enough cash to do that all cash deal. An alternative would be to do (71.5% / 8.5% = 8.4) eight deals with hard money. Now, your return on each is only (ONLY?) 13.5% of ARV. With eight of them, your total return is 108% of ARV. That's CONSIDERABLY more cash in your pocket than doing one all cash deal. Over five times the cash of a single all-cash deal.

That's the power of leverage. Its a two-edged sword, though. If things go badly (e.g., the housing market drops like a rock like it did for many fix and flippers in about 2007), you can REALLY get caught holding the bag.

Now, back to your "what if we can get cheap money" question. So, if you can borrow a big chunk of the cash to do a deal at a much lower rate, all the better. I'm a bit unclear on what you intend to do, though. If you can get cash from somewhere other than the property, and use it instead of hard money, then simply adjust the numbers above to reflect the difference in cost. For example, if you can get cash at 8% and no points rather than 15% and four points (net 11.5% of amount borrowed for six months) than your money costs (4% of amount borrowed for six months) is only about a third of the hard money costs. So, your profit goes up by a corresponding amount.

You say its a private lender, and if they're willing to lend at 6% based on the property, and they're aware they're short term loans, then you also have a good deal.

But to your question of "can you pay a higher price". Sure. Maybe it looks like this:

Sell: 100%
Commissions: 6%
Selling costs: 2%
Money costs: 2.5%
Buy costs: 1.5%
Purchase plus rehab: 75%
Total: 87%
Profit: 13%

Here I'm assuming you can still borrow 70% of ARV but at 6% and no points. So that's 3% of the amount borrowed (for the six months), which is 2.1% of ARV. I bumped that up to 2.5%. That still leaves you a profit of 13% of ARV. Your investment is 4% of ARV, so your ROI is 325%! Woo Hoo!

Now, if you can find 70% deals, stick with those. But cheap money is, IMHO, a HUGE boost in your ability to do deals. At least around here, finding a 70% deal is like finding a needle in a haystack. You spend a LOT of time searching. A 75% deal is much easier to find. If you can turn a nice profit on a 75% deal, you'll spend lots more time doing deals.

See this reply in the discussion

16 Replies

Jump to latestLatest
  • Brian LevredgePro Member
    Investor · Chattanooga, TN · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 903 votes
    16y

    All cash scenario #1
    185k sales price - 101.5k purchase - 28k rehab - 11.1k sales commission = 44.4k profit / 129.5k total investment = 34% ROI.

    Debt financing scenario #2
    185k sales price - 28k rehab - 24k down/cost of money - 101k mortgage - 11.1k sales commission = 20.9k profit / 52k total investment = 41% ROI.

    It's best to isolate the cost of borrowing and down payment. I would even isolate those from each other as well. My question is: Why pay a higher price when utilizing debt than you would otherwise? Your ROI may be higher in the second scenario but you are making more than double the amount in gross dollars in the first scenario. These numbers are also pretty basic in that they don't include a builder's risk policy, property taxes, overhead, and seller paid concessions among other things.

    If you were to pay the same price in the second scenario, you have a lower down/cost of money and an ROI around 85%. The best part is that you would have enough money to do two projects (assuming similar characteristics) and you would clean up.

  • Rental Property Investor · Mercer Island, WA · Member since 2008 · 22k+ posts · 14k+ votes
    16y

    The basic rule of thumb (pay 70% of ARV or purchase plus rehab and make a profit of about 15% of ARV) makes a bunch of assumptions:

    1) You're paying hard money rates for a 70% of ARV loan -> about 7% of ARV (10% of the loan amount) goes to money costs
    2) You hold for about six months
    3) You pay typical purchase closing costs of about 2% of the purchase price. Call that 1.5% of ARV, which is a bit high but also covers the misc costs like utilities, lawn maintenance, etc.
    4) You pay typical sales closing costs also about 2%
    5) You sell for ARV.
    6) You pay realtor commissions of 6%

    So, that looks like this:

    Sell: 100%
    Commissions: 6%
    Selling costs: 2%
    Money costs: 7%
    Buy costs: 1.5%
    Purchase plus rehab: 70%
    Total: 86.5%
    Profit: 13.5%

    The cash required would typically be the money cost plus the buy costs, 7% + 1.5% = 8.5%. The selling costs and commissions come out of the sale and the loan covers purchase plus rehab. So your ROI SHOULD be 13.5% / 8.5% = 159%.

    Now that's in a perfect world, and things often go wrong so the profit will go down and the cost will go up.

    If you're paying cash, you eliminate the money costs. So your profit jumps to 20.5% of ARV (assuming everything else is the same). Your investment, though, becomes purchase, rehab, and buy closing costs, 71.5% of ARV. So your ROI is only 28%. Nevertheless, your cash-in-pocket for this deal is about 66% higher than using hard money.

    But a better comparison is to ask what gives the best return for your available investment cash.

    With hard money, you put in 8.5% of ARV. With cash, you put in 71.5% of ARV. Say you have enough cash to do that all cash deal. An alternative would be to do (71.5% / 8.5% = 8.4) eight deals with hard money. Now, your return on each is only (ONLY?) 13.5% of ARV. With eight of them, your total return is 108% of ARV. That's CONSIDERABLY more cash in your pocket than doing one all cash deal. Over five times the cash of a single all-cash deal.

    That's the power of leverage. Its a two-edged sword, though. If things go badly (e.g., the housing market drops like a rock like it did for many fix and flippers in about 2007), you can REALLY get caught holding the bag.

    Now, back to your "what if we can get cheap money" question. So, if you can borrow a big chunk of the cash to do a deal at a much lower rate, all the better. I'm a bit unclear on what you intend to do, though. If you can get cash from somewhere other than the property, and use it instead of hard money, then simply adjust the numbers above to reflect the difference in cost. For example, if you can get cash at 8% and no points rather than 15% and four points (net 11.5% of amount borrowed for six months) than your money costs (4% of amount borrowed for six months) is only about a third of the hard money costs. So, your profit goes up by a corresponding amount.

    You say its a private lender, and if they're willing to lend at 6% based on the property, and they're aware they're short term loans, then you also have a good deal.

    But to your question of "can you pay a higher price". Sure. Maybe it looks like this:

    Sell: 100%
    Commissions: 6%
    Selling costs: 2%
    Money costs: 2.5%
    Buy costs: 1.5%
    Purchase plus rehab: 75%
    Total: 87%
    Profit: 13%

    Here I'm assuming you can still borrow 70% of ARV but at 6% and no points. So that's 3% of the amount borrowed (for the six months), which is 2.1% of ARV. I bumped that up to 2.5%. That still leaves you a profit of 13% of ARV. Your investment is 4% of ARV, so your ROI is 325%! Woo Hoo!

    Now, if you can find 70% deals, stick with those. But cheap money is, IMHO, a HUGE boost in your ability to do deals. At least around here, finding a 70% deal is like finding a needle in a haystack. You spend a LOT of time searching. A 75% deal is much easier to find. If you can turn a nice profit on a 75% deal, you'll spend lots more time doing deals.

  • Real Estate Investor · Bloomington, IN · Member since 2008 · 119 posts · 8 votes
    16y

    Brian and Jon

    Fantastic respones. I haven't yet digested all of the information given yet, but I certainly wanted to say thanks as soon as I could!

    Brian...your question about paying a higher price using debt than I would otherwise is interesting...in my mind I'm just trying to put together my highest and best offer that is still a buy right according ot the principles I've learned on this site. If I've only got a certain amount of cash, my offer would stop at that amount, whereas the ability to get mortgages has given me more of an ability to leverage.

    Jon... I'm glad you started with the "assumptions" of the ARV flipping rule. I was admittedly fuzzy about where the realtor commission fit in.

    My repairs cost included vacant house insurance.

    Like I said, I need to re-read your posts again and ask myself some more questions. The ROI discussion is one that I quite frankly don't pay enough attention to. I need to understand that more fully and your guys' posts are helping me to do so!

    I realize I'm lucky to have a private loan at 6%... another hurdle, though, is that I can't use a "gift' loan like that as a dp unless I've had the $ in my account for more than 2 months (according to my banker).

    Thanks again gentelmen!

  • Rental Property Investor · Mercer Island, WA · Member since 2008 · 22k+ posts · 14k+ votes
    16y

    I'm not clear on the lending situation. Are you getting a private loan at 6% then wanting to get a conventional mortgage to buy the property? That might work once or twice, but once your banker catches on you're paying off those loans after six months, he or she will refuse to do them. If you're getting some sort of line of credit or construction loan or some such, then you should be good. But getting that at 6% would be a great deal.

  • Real Estate Investor · Bloomington, IN · Member since 2008 · 119 posts · 8 votes
    16y

    Exactly...private loan at 6% for dp and then my own equity and other credit for repairs.

    So you don't think my banker will like this? Why not? I'm going to chat with him in the next few days, hopefully.

    Thanks again...

  • Real Estate Investor · Bloomington, IN · Member since 2008 · 119 posts · 8 votes
    16y

    Jon...just spoke with my banker...he said he didn't have a problem with me paying off my loans because his institution is selling them anyway...thanks for the heads up though...

  • Rental Property Investor · Mercer Island, WA · Member since 2008 · 22k+ posts · 14k+ votes
    16y

    I don't have direct experience with the consequences of paying off these loans quickly. I have been asked how long I intended to hold the property when applying for a loan. There is a cost to the buyer of these notes to do the transaction. They're expecting you to make more than a handful of payments before paying them off. Maybe they're OK with this. After you've done a few, however, all the credit hits will show up, and a potential buyer will see that's you've been taking out then quickly paying off these loans. This is a great strategy if it works. Keep us posted.

  • Real Estate Investor · Bloomington, IN · Member since 2008 · 119 posts · 8 votes
    16y

    Great perspective....thanks! I will let you know how it works out IF I go forward.

  • Real Estate Investor · Cincinnati, OH · Member since 2009 · 93 posts · 26 votes
    16y

    Joel K. the 70% rule is a just a rule of thumb. Jon is correct in telling you the assumptions behind that rule. Great job Jon.

    The 70% rule does not work in a slow or declining market. It does not work in a hyper hot market or during real estate bubbles either.

    It does not work when doing owner financing also.



  • Developer · Prior Lake, MN · Member since 2010 · 118 posts · 46 votes
    16y
    Originally posted by Trace Trajano:
    Joel K. the 70% rule is a just a rule of thumb. Jon is correct in telling you the assumptions behind that rule. Great job Jon.

    The 70% rule does not work in a slow or declining market. It does not work in a hyper hot market or during real estate bubbles either.

    It does not work when doing owner financing also.


    Trace, could you elaborate more about the rule to use in a slow or declining market?

    Thanks,
    -Jaden
  • Rental Property Investor · Mercer Island, WA · Member since 2008 · 22k+ posts · 14k+ votes
    16y

    The formula still works, its just a calculation. The single most difficult part of this formula is determining ARV. There are numerous threads on that, but its still something of a guess no matter how much effort you put into it. In a declining market, the ARV six months from now is likely to be less than the ARV today. Similarly, in a hot market, the ARV is likely to increase before you can sell (which is why HMLs were happy to lend with no qualification of the buyer during the boom.) So, the ARV needs to be the price you expect to sell for, when you actually sell. Not today's price.

    There are other factors that play into that, too. If you're doing a flip and you're going to be ready to sell in April (adjusted for your area), you're hitting the start of the selling season, and might be able to get a little extra. OTOH, if you're finished on Thanskgiving, you're likely going to sell for a little less.

    At the moment, the number of REOs and short sales in your area and HVCC are also factors. In a neighborhood with nothing but REO sales, the appraiser's going to end up using some of those as comps. HVCC seems to have made appraisals something of a crap shoot. At the very least, you must consider the worst potential comps when establishing an ARV. During the boom, you could use the best possible comps and be pretty confident you could hit that value.

    As far as financing, I've laid out the assumptions behind this rule of thumb. If you have cash (0% money cost), you can do a thinner deal and still make a profit. You must, however, consider what other investments you could have made with that money and realize that part of the return in an all cash deal is from the cash and part is from the deal. If you can make $10K with your cash in bank CDs, and $8K on a fix and flip with the same cash, the deal is actually losing $2K.

    If you have owner financing on the purchase, that makes your money cheaper, and accordingly adjusts the deal. If you're giving owner financing on the sale, you can probably command a slightly higher price, plus you get the interest income.

    Use the 70% rule of thumb as a screening criteria. Run through the math in detail and make an adjustment if something is radically different than the assumptions in this rule (e.g., you have a big pile of your own cash.) If a property passes this initial screen, DO THE MATH IN DETAIL for that particular deal, and account for all your costs and actual expenses.

  • Real Estate Investor · Member since 2010 · 54 posts · 1 vote
    16y

    Joel, great question.

    Jon and Brian, I'm also looking at some retailing deals and your in-depth analysis is extremely helpful.

  • Rental Property Investor · Baltimore, MD · Member since 2009 · 624 posts · 559 votes
    16y

    This is a great discussion with many valuable insights.

    However, Jaden's comment is, IMHO, the most important.

    The 70% will not protect you in this market. We are not at the bottom... or there is a very high probability that the housing market is going to double-dip.

    Buying using the 70% will not give you enough protection.

    It is better to be conservative then get into a deal that takes you down.

  • Investor · Southern CT, CT · Member since 2010 · 211 posts · 41 votes
    16y

    My rule is to buy at the cheapest discount i can, i put in my offers around 55% of arv and go from there.

  • Real Estate Investor · Cincinnati, OH · Member since 2009 · 93 posts · 26 votes
    16y

    Jaden,

    Instead of the customary...

    MAO = 70% x ARV - Repairs

    My formula for making offers is:

    MAO = CF x ARV - Repairs - Profit

    CF = is the cost factor. This is the % reduction of the ARV related to the cost of selling and carrying a property. In a normal market this is around 90%. Which means, roughly, it will take 10% of the ARV to sell and carry a property. For instance, in a normal market, you have...

    3 months before you get a property sold...
    you use a hard money loan at 12% annual interest or 1% interest per month...
    you pay a real estate agent 6% commission...
    you pay roughly about 1% in closing costs...

    Adding these things you get:

    6% realtor commission
    3% carrying cost
    1% closing cost
    Total: 10%; CF = 100% - 90%

    For a $100,000 house that, say needs $10,000 in renovation, a typical rehabber would want to make $20,000 in profit. Using the formula...

    MAO = 90% x $100,000 - $10,000 - $20,000

    MAO = $60,000

    If you use the 70% rule, you end up with...

    MAO = 70% x $100,000 - $10,000
    MAO = $60,000 - the same answer!

    Bottomline: the 70% rule is based on being able to sell the house in 3 months or so, with a 20% profit margin for the renovator.

    The reason why it does not work in a declining market is because you end up with a CF lower than 90% (which means you spend more than 10% of your ARV selling a house). Your financing cost is higher because there's a lot more risks for the hard money lender. Lastly, you also end up lowering the price of the property in the form of seller concessions (e.g., you pay part of the closing costs, you put more extras, you sell the property 5-10% below market, you stage it, etc.)

    For instance, if it takes you 9 months to sell a property, and you use 15% as your hard money rate, and assuming you give your buyer a 5% seller concession...your CF becomes:

    Realtor commission: 6%
    Carrying cost
    9 months x 15%/12 = 11.25%
    Seller concession: 5%
    Closing cost: 1%
    Total costs: 23.25% --> let's round this up to 25% which means you use 75% as your CF.

    Let's still use $20,000 as your renovator profit and you end up with...

    MAO = 75% x $100,000 - $10,000 - $20,000

    MAO = $45,000
    This is $15,000 BELOW what the 70% rule would predict. In other words, if you follow the 70% rule without questioning how the rule was derived, you will have spent $15,000 more for this property - which almost wipes out all your profit!

    Makes sense?

  • Realtor · Fresno, CA · Member since 2013 · 471 posts · 225 votes
    16y
    Originally posted by Peter Giardini:
    This is a great discussion with many valuable insights.

    However, Jaden's comment is, IMHO, the most important.

    The 70% will not protect you in this market. We are not at the bottom... or there is a very high probability that the housing market is going to double-dip.

    Buying using the 70% will not give you enough protection.

    It is better to be conservative then get into a deal that takes you down.


    couldn't you project forward with a calculation based on the average market decline... then account for that in the numbers so that you have a range that you are just expecting to drop based on a falling market?

    for example, if you have done all the math and now know what the deal is going to cost - you could just ASSUME the the market price will decline ( based on local markets) say maybe 3% decline ( per month) in home values - if you work that into the equation than you can assume that if you have to hold onto the house for six months - you have already figured on that price drop and would have determined from the very beginning if that margin still leaves any meat in the deal. Just a thought on it.

Join the conversationCreate a free account to reply, vote on answers and follow this thread.