March Housing Numbers Are In; It Ain't Pretty

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March Housing Numbers Are In; It Ain't Pretty

Michael Carbonare
Investor · Fort Lauderdale, FL · Member since 2013 · 921 posts · 607 votes

March housing numbers are in.
https://lnkd.in/du6Y84c6

Single-family home sales just dropped again, now at 3.63M annualized
Condo sales? Down to the lowest levels on record
Inventory? Sitting at a 10-year high

We now have the worst combination possible, (or best, depending on which side of the table you're seated):
Demand collapsing
Supply rising
Sellers anchored to yesterday’s prices
We have a standoff.

This isn’t a crash. . .yet.
Buyers can’t buy, (rates + affordability)
Sellers won’t sell, (denial, and to a lesser extent, the lock-in effect)
Transactions? Buyers have hit the brakes.

Underneath this “deepfreeze” is a growing pool of:
Motivated sellers who haven't sold: Reluctant Landlords
Deals that don’t work conventionally
This is where creative strategies take over.

Lease options.
Cooperative assignments.
Seller financing.
Not because they’re trendy
But because they’re the only things that actually solve the problem.

If you’re waiting for the market to “normalize", you’re going to miss the opportunity.
This IS the opportunity.

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Ken M.
Investor · Get yourself trained before doing something inadvisable. · Member since 2024 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
6mo
Quote from @Michael Carbonare:

March housing numbers are in.
https://lnkd.in/du6Y84c6

Single-family home sales just dropped again, now at 3.63M annualized
Condo sales? Down to the lowest levels on record
Inventory? Sitting at a 10-year high

We now have the worst combination possible, (or best, depending on which side of the table you're seated):
Demand collapsing
Supply rising
Sellers anchored to yesterday’s prices
We have a standoff.

This isn’t a crash. . .yet.
Buyers can’t buy, (rates + affordability)
Sellers won’t sell, (denial, and to a lesser extent, the lock-in effect)
Transactions? Buyers have hit the brakes.

Underneath this “deepfreeze” is a growing pool of:
Motivated sellers who haven't sold: Reluctant Landlords
Deals that don’t work conventionally
This is where creative strategies take over.

Lease options.
Cooperative assignments.
Seller financing.
Not because they’re trendy
But because they’re the only things that actually solve the problem.

If you’re waiting for the market to “normalize", you’re going to miss the opportunity.
This IS the opportunity.

I agree with you. The only way people have going forward, for the foreseeable future, is to utilize creative finance.

Not the "over pay, zero down, borrow the closing cost" type of nonsense being taught by the "SubTo Group", but level headed, legal, creative finance that gets the job done.

That includes, Wraps, Seller Finance, Contract for Deed, Lease Options and a host of other options, That satisfy the need of both the seller and buyer and withstand the scrutiny of regulators. They've been around for ever and as long as you follow the guidelines, there is a lot of money to be made, relatively safely.

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  • Michelle Pepe
    Rental Property Investor · Member since 2021 · 120 posts · 69 votes
    6mo

    Even regular real estate has stalled in Hudson valley NY. Ok number of buyers, a few good houses on market in an area, should be pretty good osmosis happening but it's not! People aren't jumping anymore, not falling in love and "impulse" buying. Even properly priced homes are sitting for a month... two...  it's few and far between things hit the market and go immediately. Tons of price reductions, and certainly no more highest and best!! 

    1Reply
  • Michael Carbonare
    OP
    Investor · Fort Lauderdale, FL · Member since 2013 · 921 posts · 607 votes
    6mo

    Interesting, Michelle.  The headlines generalize that the northeast remains a strong sellers market.  As an ex-NYer, I am somewhat familiar with the Hudson Valley.  It's been a while since I've been out that way but I recall it being a family friendly environment that was reasonably priced, compared to areas closer in to the city.

    1Reply
  • Ken M.
    Investor · Get yourself trained before doing something inadvisable. · Member since 2024 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    6mo
    Quote from @Michael Carbonare:

    March housing numbers are in.
    https://lnkd.in/du6Y84c6

    Single-family home sales just dropped again, now at 3.63M annualized
    Condo sales? Down to the lowest levels on record
    Inventory? Sitting at a 10-year high

    We now have the worst combination possible, (or best, depending on which side of the table you're seated):
    Demand collapsing
    Supply rising
    Sellers anchored to yesterday’s prices
    We have a standoff.

    This isn’t a crash. . .yet.
    Buyers can’t buy, (rates + affordability)
    Sellers won’t sell, (denial, and to a lesser extent, the lock-in effect)
    Transactions? Buyers have hit the brakes.

    Underneath this “deepfreeze” is a growing pool of:
    Motivated sellers who haven't sold: Reluctant Landlords
    Deals that don’t work conventionally
    This is where creative strategies take over.

    Lease options.
    Cooperative assignments.
    Seller financing.
    Not because they’re trendy
    But because they’re the only things that actually solve the problem.

    If you’re waiting for the market to “normalize", you’re going to miss the opportunity.
    This IS the opportunity.

    I agree with you. The only way people have going forward, for the foreseeable future, is to utilize creative finance.

    Not the "over pay, zero down, borrow the closing cost" type of nonsense being taught by the "SubTo Group", but level headed, legal, creative finance that gets the job done.

    That includes, Wraps, Seller Finance, Contract for Deed, Lease Options and a host of other options, That satisfy the need of both the seller and buyer and withstand the scrutiny of regulators. They've been around for ever and as long as you follow the guidelines, there is a lot of money to be made, relatively safely.

    1Reply
  • Caleb Brown
    Real Estate Agent · Kansas City · Member since 2018 · 4k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    6mo

    It's been an interesting Spring. Does not feel like a rush but not dead, an in between.

    0Reply
  • Alex Forest
    Rental Property Investor · Henrico, VA · Member since 2019 · 265 posts · 155 votes
    5mo
    Quote from @Michael Carbonare:

    March housing numbers are in.
    https://lnkd.in/du6Y84c6

    Single-family home sales just dropped again, now at 3.63M annualized
    Condo sales? Down to the lowest levels on record
    Inventory? Sitting at a 10-year high

    We now have the worst combination possible, (or best, depending on which side of the table you're seated):
    Demand collapsing
    Supply rising
    Sellers anchored to yesterday’s prices
    We have a standoff.

    This isn’t a crash. . .yet.
    Buyers can’t buy, (rates + affordability)
    Sellers won’t sell, (denial, and to a lesser extent, the lock-in effect)
    Transactions? Buyers have hit the brakes.

    Underneath this “deepfreeze” is a growing pool of:
    Motivated sellers who haven't sold: Reluctant Landlords
    Deals that don’t work conventionally
    This is where creative strategies take over.

    Lease options.
    Cooperative assignments.
    Seller financing.
    Not because they’re trendy
    But because they’re the only things that actually solve the problem.

    If you’re waiting for the market to “normalize", you’re going to miss the opportunity.
    This IS the opportunity.

     Bill Mcbride of Calculated Risk has been watching months of supply as a key metric.  Because the numbers of new houses added to inventory have been so low, as have sales, he likes how it provides a balance between the two.  As of recent, nationally it's up to 4.1 months now.  He notes how this just got above the pre pandemic 2019 level...


    The regional months of supply numbers are pretty wild in how they go up to 9 months in some places (Phoenix ,etc) and are still near 2 in others.

    0Reply
  • Michael Carbonare
    OP
    Investor · Fort Lauderdale, FL · Member since 2013 · 921 posts · 607 votes
    5mo

    Yes, the inventory numbers are all over the place from region to region.

    0Reply
    • Alex Forest
      Rental Property Investor · Henrico, VA · Member since 2019 · 265 posts · 155 votes
      5mo
      Quote from @Michael Carbonare:

      Yes, the inventory numbers are all over the place from region to region.


       The above was for existing. This below is for new builds.  The minths if supply die these are pretty high.

      0Reply
  • Henry Lazerow
    Real Estate Agent · Chicago, IL · Member since 2017 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    5mo

    Depends where you are. Out of my 4 current listings 3 are contingent well over ask price, one last week had people fighting over it like crazy. It all depends on supply. 2-4 units are all I sell and they are in very low supply, multiple offers are expected for the good ones. 

    0Reply
  • Steve K.
    Realtor · Boulder, CO · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 5k+ votes
    5mo
     Very price-point dependent here. “Entry-level” homes that are priced and marketed well are still seeing multiple offers and selling fast, but not going way above ask. The luxury market is very, very slow. Middle price bands are a balanced market. The year started off strong then the Iran war really put the brakes on. Probably going to get worse as the year goes on, I think we’re just starting to feel the high cost of oil now and the markets have been irrationally resilient to what is happening so far. 
    0Reply
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