Seeking Market Forecast for Buying in Joshua Tree, CA area
Member since 2024 · 6 posts · 0 votes
Seeking Market Forecast for Buying in Joshua Tree, CA area
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Real Estate Agent · Pasadena, CA · Member since 2017 · 276 posts · 255 votes
2yQuote from @Joanna Joy Seetoo:
Quote from Melanie P.
Real estate prices fluctuate, up and down. We are currently in a down trend that I expect to last three or more years. If you're building a commune complete with art installations, cabins, etc. whatever you're seeing in the market is totally irrelevant to where your project will be 10 years in the future, completed.
Thank you Melanie! I appreciate your reply. Yes I think the project I want to create is definitely a longer term project. I guess my question would relate to the wisdom of pulling the trigger now and paying more for a property that could well be purchased for significantly less in another 3-6 months or maybe even longer if the down trend is expected to last a few years. I can still build equity in my primary home in the meantime.
Hi Joanna, realtor here that does a lot of business in the Southern California High Desert.
The reality is that homes appreciated very quickly in the High Desert and we are still, for the most part, in a correction. A lot of buyers in the past couple years purchased with the intent to rent their homes on a short-term basis (Airbnb) which caused prices to shoot up and for one reason or another, a lot of these buyers are deciding to cash out which is creating a large inventory of homes in residential neighborhoods and putting downside pressure on home prices.
We are definitely seeing home prices in residential neighborhoods coming down a lot and with the high level of inventory, there seems to be more room to come down.
Home prices on acreage in the more affluent parts of Joshua Tree and Yucca Valley (south of the 62 Highway) are slower to come down. I think mostly due to unrealistic sellers holding onto the home values of a couple years ago. We are still seeing many of these homes being listed for 100%+ over what they purchased a couple years ago.
As a buyer, the positive is that the good majority of leveraged Airbnb investors have moved on from Joshua Tree leaving mostly cash buyers and if buying now, you should have a lot of leverage to negotiate with since the competition has thinned out.
Mortgage interest rates move with the Fed and the general consensus is that there will be possibly only one rate cut this year in Q3 or Q4 with no more cuts until next year. With lower mortgage interest rates comes increased competition so the sweet spot may be sometime towards the end of this year.
That said, if you see a property you like, the best advise is to shoot your shot and submit an offer that makes sense to you and if they bite, you win and if they don't, you didn't lose.
11 Replies
- 2yMelanie P.Pro MemberRental Property Investor · Member since 2023 · 1k+ posts · 922 votes
Real estate prices fluctuate, up and down. We are currently in a down trend that I expect to last three or more years. If you're building a commune complete with art installations, cabins, etc. whatever you're seeing in the market is totally irrelevant to where your project will be 10 years in the future, completed.
- Member since 2024 · 6 posts · 0 votes2y
Quote from Melanie P.
Real estate prices fluctuate, up and down. We are currently in a down trend that I expect to last three or more years. If you're building a commune complete with art installations, cabins, etc. whatever you're seeing in the market is totally irrelevant to where your project will be 10 years in the future, completed.
Thank you Melanie! I appreciate your reply. Yes I think the project I want to create is definitely a longer term project. I guess my question would relate to the wisdom of pulling the trigger now and paying more for a property that could well be purchased for significantly less in another 3-6 months or maybe even longer if the down trend is expected to last a few years. I can still build equity in my primary home in the meantime. - 2yMelanie P.Pro MemberRental Property Investor · Member since 2023 · 1k+ posts · 922 votes
The best day to purchase real estate will always be yesterday. If you're seeing soft sports in the market find the perfect property and negotiate hard on price. Trying to time the market is a fool's errand and besides you might not like what is on the market three years from now. if something matches your needs and desires perfectly and you're ready to go - go.
- Member since 2024 · 6 posts · 0 votes2yThat's solid advice Melanie - thank you! I haven't found the perfect fit just yet. Appreciate your input.
Quote from @Melanie P.:
The best day to purchase real estate will always be yesterday. If you're seeing soft sports in the market find the perfect property and negotiate hard on price. Trying to time the market is a fool's errand and besides you might not like what is on the market three years from now. if something matches your needs and desires perfectly and you're ready to go - go.
That's solid advice Melanie - than - 2yV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
You're asking for the answer everyone in the world wants to know. If we knew it, we wouldn't be here honestly.
If it's a second home & business venture, you're likely better just getting in and getting it going than worrying about buying too early or late. The market right now is cooling, and I'd say is on your side. You're perfectly capable of throwing some aggressive bids that make you comfortable entering and as you see one that fits, maybe up the ante for one that fits all your criteria but right now you can operate with no pressure regarding that.
- Real Estate Agent · Pasadena, CA · Member since 2017 · 276 posts · 255 votes2y
Quote from @Joanna Joy Seetoo:
Quote from Melanie P.
Real estate prices fluctuate, up and down. We are currently in a down trend that I expect to last three or more years. If you're building a commune complete with art installations, cabins, etc. whatever you're seeing in the market is totally irrelevant to where your project will be 10 years in the future, completed.
Thank you Melanie! I appreciate your reply. Yes I think the project I want to create is definitely a longer term project. I guess my question would relate to the wisdom of pulling the trigger now and paying more for a property that could well be purchased for significantly less in another 3-6 months or maybe even longer if the down trend is expected to last a few years. I can still build equity in my primary home in the meantime.Hi Joanna, realtor here that does a lot of business in the Southern California High Desert.
The reality is that homes appreciated very quickly in the High Desert and we are still, for the most part, in a correction. A lot of buyers in the past couple years purchased with the intent to rent their homes on a short-term basis (Airbnb) which caused prices to shoot up and for one reason or another, a lot of these buyers are deciding to cash out which is creating a large inventory of homes in residential neighborhoods and putting downside pressure on home prices.
We are definitely seeing home prices in residential neighborhoods coming down a lot and with the high level of inventory, there seems to be more room to come down.
Home prices on acreage in the more affluent parts of Joshua Tree and Yucca Valley (south of the 62 Highway) are slower to come down. I think mostly due to unrealistic sellers holding onto the home values of a couple years ago. We are still seeing many of these homes being listed for 100%+ over what they purchased a couple years ago.
As a buyer, the positive is that the good majority of leveraged Airbnb investors have moved on from Joshua Tree leaving mostly cash buyers and if buying now, you should have a lot of leverage to negotiate with since the competition has thinned out.
Mortgage interest rates move with the Fed and the general consensus is that there will be possibly only one rate cut this year in Q3 or Q4 with no more cuts until next year. With lower mortgage interest rates comes increased competition so the sweet spot may be sometime towards the end of this year.
That said, if you see a property you like, the best advise is to shoot your shot and submit an offer that makes sense to you and if they bite, you win and if they don't, you didn't lose.
- Member since 2024 · 6 posts · 0 votes2y
Quote from @Jason Kudo:
Quote from @Joanna Joy Seetoo:
Quote from Melanie P.
Real estate prices fluctuate, up and down. We are currently in a down trend that I expect to last three or more years. If you're building a commune complete with art installations, cabins, etc. whatever you're seeing in the market is totally irrelevant to where your project will be 10 years in the future, completed.
Thank you Melanie! I appreciate your reply. Yes I think the project I want to create is definitely a longer term project. I guess my question would relate to the wisdom of pulling the trigger now and paying more for a property that could well be purchased for significantly less in another 3-6 months or maybe even longer if the down trend is expected to last a few years. I can still build equity in my primary home in the meantime.Hi Joanna, realtor here that does a lot of business in the Southern California High Desert.
The reality is that homes appreciated very quickly in the High Desert and we are still, for the most part, in a correction. A lot of buyers in the past couple years purchased with the intent to rent their homes on a short-term basis (Airbnb) which caused prices to shoot up and for one reason or another, a lot of these buyers are deciding to cash out which is creating a large inventory of homes in residential neighborhoods and putting downside pressure on home prices.
We are definitely seeing home prices in residential neighborhoods coming down a lot and with the high level of inventory, there seems to be more room to come down.
Home prices on acreage in the more affluent parts of Joshua Tree and Yucca Valley (south of the 62 Highway) are slower to come down. I think mostly due to unrealistic sellers holding onto the home values of a couple years ago. We are still seeing many of these homes being listed for 100%+ over what they purchased a couple years ago.
As a buyer, the positive is that the good majority of leveraged Airbnb investors have moved on from Joshua Tree leaving mostly cash buyers and if buying now, you should have a lot of leverage to negotiate with since the competition has thinned out.
Mortgage interest rates move with the Fed and the general consensus is that there will be possibly only one rate cut this year in Q3 or Q4 with no more cuts until next year. With lower mortgage interest rates comes increased competition so the sweet spot may be sometime towards the end of this year.
That said, if you see a property you like, the best advise is to shoot your shot and submit an offer that makes sense to you and if they bite, you win and if they don't, you didn't lose.
Thank you so much Jason! This makes a lot of sense to me and gives me more confidence as to seeing a path to move forward with. Later this year sounds like a good plan.
I recently saw a handful of properties in all different conditions that were all north of 62. My realtor didn't give me a sense of what the "better" or "safer" areas or more affluent areas of JT are and I don't know where to look for that kind of information. She never mentioned flood zones either and I now know that that can be an issue.
I did realize that I am not as comfortable with long stretches of unpaved road. I would like a property that is on or just off of a paved road. I am fine with a short drive on dirt but not for too long a stretch. :-) If there are any sites you recommend to do more research I'd really appreciate if you could share that.
I am also thinking I might need to check with San Bernardino about zoning though I was told that they can sometimes be a bit more lenient than other parts of CA? I know here in San Diego I had to have permits just to put air conditioning into my house. Thank you again for your advice!
- Member since 2024 · 6 posts · 0 votes2y
Quote from @V.G Jason:
You're asking for the answer everyone in the world wants to know. If we knew it, we wouldn't be here honestly.
If it's a second home & business venture, you're likely better just getting in and getting it going than worrying about buying too early or late. The market right now is cooling, and I'd say is on your side. You're perfectly capable of throwing some aggressive bids that make you comfortable entering and as you see one that fits, maybe up the ante for one that fits all your criteria but right now you can operate with no pressure regarding that.
Thank you! I know I'm asking a lot which is why I said, I realized no one has a crystal ball or magic bean...I really do appreciate the guidance from astute and experienced real estate pros. I definitely feel better making this decision as I hear from the kind folks like yourself who've replied. I've always been cautioned by realtors to not be aggressive in lower bids as "you don't want to insult anyone" but maybe that strategy doesn't apply as much here?
Thanks again!
- 2yPeter MckernanBusiness MemberResidential Real Estate Agent · Irvine, CA · Member since 2013 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
Quote from @Joanna Joy Seetoo:
Hello!
I know there's no crystal ball or magic bean but I've been reading all the great advice that gets posted here and as a newbie I am hoping I might be able to get some guidance. I have recently been to Joshua Tree/Yucca Valley/Twentynine Palms area twice in the last two months as I just love it there and am considering buying property to have a second home. Ideally I'd like to buy something with a few acres to build an art studio for multi media work, gallery and perhaps a few small cabins for people to visit with us.
I have been seeing prices dropping and I'm wondering if this is just a momentary reprieve or are we going to see them continue to slide down for awhile longer. I would be using a mix of cash and pulling equity from my home so ideally I can maximize my investment dollars as much as possible.
Any advice would be greatly appreciated!
Thank you!
This is an area as you said and others have said that is dropping in price. It is due to the saturation in listings and low returns on Airbnb (depending on your IN price on when it was bought). The high in 2020, 2021, and 2022 gave way to high returns and high demand out there in JT, Yucca Valley, Landers, and 29 Palms. After the low rates started to increase when the FEDs pushed to raise them the inventory went up significantly (in January 2022 there were active listings on the MLS of 40-45 listings, now if you look 160-170 listings). This is bad for flipping and bad for investors, but good for people who are looking for that second home that they can visit at times of the year they want. If you can buy at this position you can be picky about price, area, and condition. You can wait for a long time to get that right deal.
If I were you I would be looking at this as an opportunity to really negotiate price and other items that you want to make happen (credit back at closing, fully furnished and more).
The McKernan Group4.957 Reviews - Member since 2024 · 6 posts · 0 votes2y
@Peter Mckernan thank you so much for your reply! This is great news and I am definitely going to stay sharp on my search. Knowing that it is a buyers market is super helpful and I won't be so shy about creating my "wish list."
Would you be able to answer a question for me? Do realtors in CA negotiate on their client's behalf? Or is this something I would do myself? In NY my broker handled that for me and when I bought in San Diego I purchased from the owner so the realtor who was "representing" both parties, just did the paperwork.
Thank you again!
- 2yPeter MckernanBusiness MemberResidential Real Estate Agent · Irvine, CA · Member since 2013 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
Quote from @Joanna Joy Seetoo:
@Peter Mckernan thank you so much for your reply! This is great news and I am definitely going to stay sharp on my search. Knowing that it is a buyers market is super helpful and I won't be so shy about creating my "wish list."
Would you be able to answer a question for me? Do realtors in CA negotiate on their client's behalf? Or is this something I would do myself? In NY my broker handled that for me and when I bought in San Diego I purchased from the owner so the realtor who was "representing" both parties, just did the paperwork.
Thank you again!
If you get a buyer's agent in CA, you need to make sure that they are negotiating for you (we/the agent should not be just doing the paperwork). We get to work for our clients to close deals and make them happen! That is where our time and effort gets us paid, and gets you a good home for a price you want.
The McKernan Group4.957 Reviews
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