Does a state's debt position concern you? Would you buy properties in a broken state?

Does a state's debt position concern you? Would you buy properties in a broken state?

Investor · Get yourself trained before doing something inadvisable. · Member since 2024 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes

Does it cause you to invest somewhere else when a state is irrevocably indebted and has high taxes to boot? The Top 5 States that can't Pay Their Bills are 

New Jersey, Connecticut, Illinois, Massachusetts and California (Source: Truth in Accounting)

Does it matter, or is there another reason you'd invest elsewhere?

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Bruce WoodruffPro Member
Contractor/Investor/Consultant · San Diego / Phoenix · Member since 2021 · 12k+ posts · 15k+ votes
9mo

Generally speaking NO. It's just not smart. And just because 'everybody does it' does not make it anywhere near ok.... These states are also very 'blue' states which brings along crazy regulations and higher taxes and fees. That would worry me more than just the fact that they are insolvent-ish....

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  • Realtor · Hanover Twp, PA · Member since 2018 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    9mo

    @Ken M., I don't invest in any of those states, BUT states in high debt and with high taxes would NOT necessarily dissuade me! Here are a couple of reasons why:

    1. A deal is a deal is a deal. Depending on the strategy, what happens in the future is of little consequence. If I am flipping a house, my time horizon is so short that the high debt and taxes aren't likely to change my expected ARV or ability to sell.

    2. For longer term investing like BRRRR, buy & hold, etc it isn't so much about what the situation is today, its what the future looks like!

    For these longer term strategies which is riskier??? A low debt/tax state on the brink of acquiring higher debt and raising taxes because of economic problems?!? OR a high debt/tax state that has those issues stabilized/mitigated?!?

  • Theresa HarrisPro Member
    Member since 2019 · 15k+ posts · 11k+ votes
    9mo

    Most places overspend and are in massive debt-is that good, no; but it seems to be normal these days.  Look at the national debt of most countries=same thing to the point that several have gone bankrupt and yet the economy is fine or rather most people are unaffected.

  • Bruce WoodruffPro Member
    Contractor/Investor/Consultant · San Diego / Phoenix · Member since 2021 · 12k+ posts · 15k+ votes
    9mo

    Generally speaking NO. It's just not smart. And just because 'everybody does it' does not make it anywhere near ok.... These states are also very 'blue' states which brings along crazy regulations and higher taxes and fees. That would worry me more than just the fact that they are insolvent-ish....

  • Chris SeveneyBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Investor · VA · Member since 2015 · 21k+ posts · 19k+ votes
    9mo

    Yes I would invest in California and Massachusetts as they have some of the highest paying jobs and limited housing. Some of the other states no - but it is not just one or two factors of why I invest.

    you can argue those states have high income taxes but Texas and Florida insurance and property taxes are screaming high and as a real estate investor it costs you more sometimes to invest in those states.  Again I also invest in those states as well because they are growing but always look at many factors not just 1 or 2 

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  • Severna Park, MD · Member since 2013 · 7k+ posts · 7k+ votes
    9mo

    Here in Maryland it just made the news we have the highest utility rates in the country . People are complaining their electric bills have almost doubled . Maryland is running a couple billion shortfall . They have raised tag fees , taxes on cars , and things here are already expensive enough .  

    The problem I just had was 2 tenants tried to tell me their electric bill was crazy high and they wont have enough for rent . I had to tell them , you can either be a bit colder or be homeless . Sweaters , turn down the heat to 62 , shorter showers and turn off the lights . 

  • Russell BrazilBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Real Estate Agent · Washington, D.C. · Member since 2012 · 17k+ posts · 30k+ votes
    9mo

    You know what those high debt loads also interestingly correspond to.....high GDPs. 

    Massachusetts $120 billion in debt against $800  billion GDP

    California $496 Billion in debt against $4.2 trillion in GDP.

    • Investor · Get yourself trained before doing something inadvisable. · Member since 2024 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
      9mo
      Quote from @Russell Brazil:

      You know what those high debt loads also interestingly correspond to.....high GDPs. 

      Massachusetts $120 billion in debt against $800  billion GDP

      California $496 Billion in debt against $4.2 trillion in GDP.

      Hmm, I thought it had something to do with over spending. Wasn't MA the state those uppity colonials threw a bunch of tea overboard because of 3% taxes? "

      "By 1775, New Englanders were paying between 1 and 2 percent of their income in taxes, while the British government was consuming one-fifth of its citizens’ GDP."

      Now adays, it'd be Perrier not tea and the French would claim racism.
  • Realtor · Boulder, CO · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 5k+ votes
    9mo

    Yes I'm sure there are good deals to be had in all of these states. If I lived in one of them I'd invest there. These are all very wealthy states so some people must be finding success there, right? 

  • Member since 2021 · 1 post · 1 vote
    9mo
    Great question! I’m with the group, Truth in Accounting, the quoted report and based out of Illinois. So we “live” our research. In our work with the federal government to fix the state and local government pensions, it is widely believed that a federal bailout will happen especially when the executive branch flips parties. We’ve met with both sides of the aisle- same talking points- “We do not want a federal bailout- but one’s probably going to be necessary, and especially since the banks and multi-employer unions were bailed out.” Just some insider baseball- we are all in the same federal boat, and some states are the iceberg. If you are going to invest in Illinois, choose small towns south of I 80 and check out more of our work at www.truthinaccounting.org (FYI: I’ve been a bigger pockets listener for years- it’s fun to stumble upon our work- these conversations are what the data is for! Happy New Year everyone!
    • Investor · Get yourself trained before doing something inadvisable. · Member since 2024 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
      9mo
      Quote from @Judi Willard:
      Great question! I’m with the group, Truth in Accounting, the quoted report and based out of Illinois. So we “live” our research. In our work with the federal government to fix the state and local government pensions, it is widely believed that a federal bailout will happen especially when the executive branch flips parties. We’ve met with both sides of the aisle- same talking points- “We do not want a federal bailout- but one’s probably going to be necessary, and especially since the banks and multi-employer unions were bailed out.” Just some insider baseball- we are all in the same federal boat, and some states are the iceberg. If you are going to invest in Illinois, choose small towns south of I 80 and check out more of our work at www.truthinaccounting.org (FYI: I’ve been a bigger pockets listener for years- it’s fun to stumble upon our work- these conversations are what the data is for! Happy New Year everyone!
      Nice to meet you and good work. 

      What no one seems to admit is that pensions are a relatively new concept for the average person. And it appears they've been poorly managed. Imagine that. So much money to manipulate. I find it interesting that "In the United States, the first private-sector pension plan was established in 1875 by American Express, offering benefits to employees aged 60 or over with
      a.
      20 years of service and
      b. who were incapacitated."

      There were two criteria. They "were incapacitated" is one. I suppose that kept the enrollment in check.

      The typical family worked until they couldn't, then their kids cared for them. You see this for thousands of years.
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