I pulled every single-family home in Jefferson County (Louisville, KY) by price band. What's for sale, what's under contract, and what actually sold in the 30 days ending in early October, compared to the same 30 days last year:

• Under $200K: 624 for sale, 139 under contract, 160 sold vs 206 last year (down 22%). 3.9 months of supply.

• $200K to $300K: 736 for sale, 180 under contract, 286 sold vs 342 (down 16%). 2.6 months.

• $300K to $400K: 491 for sale, 128 under contract, 169 sold vs 152 (up 11%). 2.9 months.

• $400K to $600K: 306 for sale, 104 under contract, 126 sold vs 151 (down 17%). 2.4 months.

• $600K and up: 299 for sale, 78 under contract, 92 sold vs 81 (up 14%). 3.2 months.

• All of it: 2,456 for sale, 629 under contract, 833 sold vs 932 (down 11%). 2.9 months.

Months of supply, from the ground up, is how long it would take to sell every home on the market if nobody listed a new one. Under three months, sellers are in charge. Three to six is balanced. Over six, buyers run the show.

Look at the bottom and the top. The cheapest homes in the county slowed down the most. Meanwhile, homes over $600K sold more than they did a year ago. Economists call that shape a K. The top arm keeps climbing and the bottom arm slides down. Same economy, two directions at once.

That makes sense when you think about who's buying. A lot of under-$200K buyers are first-time buyers putting down as little as possible, and every bump in the rate hits them right in the monthly payment. Investors live in that price range too, and the numbers are harder to make work at 7%. A lot of $600K-and-up buyers are moving up with equity from their last house, or paying cash. Rates matter less when you're bringing a big check.

Here's the payment math at our median price of $285,000, putting 10% down (principal and interest only):

• A year ago, at 6.34%: about $1,594 a month

• Early October, at 7.28% (Freddie Mac's weekly average): about $1,755 a month

• At 3%, what a lot of current owners locked in back in 2021: about $1,081 a month

Same house, $161 more a month than last fall. Almost $2,000 a year. And about $674 a month more than the person selling it to you is probably paying. That gap is the whole market right now.

The shoppers didn't disappear. The signatures did. In the last week of September, 518 new homes hit our market, more than the same week last year. Only 282 sold, down 23%. And 530 single-family homes went pending in September, fewer than last December's 558. December. The week of Christmas. The month nobody buys a house.

This isn't 2008. Almost nobody is being forced to sell, and the median price is still up from last year. It's a traffic jam, not a crash. But a traffic jam still picks winners. They're the ones who keep making offers while everyone else waits for permission.

Curious whether other metros are drawing the same K. If you track your market by price band, what's your bottom band doing compared to your top one right now? And if you're looking at Louisville and want a specific band or part of town broken out, ask below and I'll pull it.