Houston we have a problem

Houston we have a problem

Rental Property Investor · SF Bay Area, CA · Member since 2014 · 352 posts · 543 votes

I'm curious how other investors are feeling about Houston and Texas markets.

Currently in my small to medium size portfolio of 9 properties over 5 states, I'm most worried about my Houston and texas properties.

#1 Had my first eviction in Houston early this year

#2 Every single of my houston (3) and 4 total texas properties had lease end and had to find new tenants which is highly costly.

#3 Rents seem to have flattened in houston market

#4 terrible storms with associated damage

#5 exorbitant rises in real estate tax especially in Houston...as much as $220/month increase in tax expenses for a tiny 100K home eating away my cash flow.

#6 Had negative cash flow for the 2015 year in 2 out of 4 texas properties.

Right now, I'm not a fan of texas at all.   I'm holding on to these properties largely because I'm so tired, I cannot bear the stress of selling at this point.  As long as I can get tenants in place, I will hold on until I can regain the will to cut my losses and move onto different markets.

Now, for those watching to get in -  I bet Houston especially will have some discounted deals in the next 1-3 years from now.

I finally get how you wholesalers get deals from "motivated" sellers.  I'm starting to feel motivated. 

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Investor · San Jose, CA · Member since 2012 · 2k+ posts · 3k+ votes
10y

@Jay Hinrichs,

When my partner and I first started doing syndications, it didn't feel right to charge all kinds of fees so the deal structures were quite advantageous to our investors.  Even our lender said if it weren't a conflict of interest, she and her boss would invest with us.  Since our acquisition underwriting was quite stringent, we didn't get enough deal flow so we terminated our syndication biz after our 3rd deal.  We could have done a lot more deals if we didn't care about gambling/investing with OPM, but we don't think we could sleep at night.  This is why I'm disappointed when I hear people who invest out of state and get ripped off by all parties involved.  What kind of people that are knowingly ripping off others for a living?

Our syndication model was designed to make everyone a lot of money.  My partner and I were literally working for peanuts, but we knew we would be making millions in year 6 and beyond.  If you ask people would they work for free for 5 years, but you'd pay them $1M in year 6, $1.5M in year 7, $2M in year 8, etc.....what would they say?  Unfortunately, everyone wants to get paid NOW.  Even our investors felt we didn't charge them enough money.  :>)

I've shared my syndication model with @David C., and he was blew away by how lucrative it could be. I've had former investors who have been asking me to JV with them on deals they found. They said it's so hard to find a trusted partner. I've convinced one individual that she should do the off-market deal herself. It's a sweet 4-plex one block from downtown Campbell. Talking about a phenomenal location. I couldn't partner with her because it's not right for me to go into a deal w/o my current partner.

I've been considering coming out of retirement and helping other local BP investors to get out of the rat race. My model conservatively shows that each investor would own 24 rentals in the Bay Area in 10 years with a $350k investment. Talking about a lucrative ROI. These rentals would be minting serious money by then. How many people own 24 rentals in the Bay Area? Hmm...Talking about pride of ownership. :>)

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  • Investor · Cleveland, OH · Member since 2015 · 6k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    10y

    @Joe Kim, I guess there was no avoiding someone eventually phrasing the question that way...

  • Investor · Friendswood, TX · Member since 2016 · 88 posts · 51 votes
    10y

    Are those properties in Houston proper or in the Suburban area? I am not seeing those problems in Brazoria or Galveston counties. 

    Randy 

  • Real Estate Agent · Houston, TX · Member since 2016 · 28 posts · 6 votes
    10y

    @Joe Kim

    @Randall Jacobs good point, due to the sheer size of the Houston metropolitan area, certain neighborhoods might be affected differently.  

    @Joe Kim these are valid points, increasing in value causing taxes to rise, recent flooding might caused spike in flood insurance premium, energy industry down turn and etc.  I think the question is will people continue to move to TX/Houston? Our inventory is 3.5 months which is still below national average.  I'm actually starting to see more investors in the market IMO.  I think you should have a chat with your property manager about your expectations in tenant screening and relationship building for the long term leases. 

  • Real Estate Agent · Houston, TX · Member since 2016 · 53 posts · 19 votes
    10y

    It sounds like you may need a Realtor and/or new property manager to market the leases and select the right tenants.  There is a slowdown on home purchases, but leases are up.

  • Rental Property Investor · SF Bay Area, CA · Member since 2014 · 352 posts · 543 votes
    10y

    Just to clarify...I'm not a motivated seller.  I'm motivated to stay sane.  Managing 9 properties and various property managers sometimes gets difficult when multiple problems occur at once.

    What I need now is a break, time off.  Not another headache of selling a property.

    Just finished signing docs for my 10th mortgage.  I'm done buying properties until I see a recession (2-3 years from now).

    At times, out of state investing is not as passive as many people think it is.  

  • Investor · Houston, TX · Member since 2016 · 12 posts · 5 votes
    10y

    What area are your properties in? We haven't seen a flattening of rents in our area. 

  • Real Estate Agent/Property Management · Houston, TX · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 827 votes
    10y

    @Joe Kim  Sorry you're having issues. I don't own properties, but I am a Realtor and property manager in Houston, and I'm not seeing any of the issues you're having.

    I have no trouble getting tenants for properties. My track record is 12 days or less. The last three homes I put a new tenant in rented in 3-5 days.

    On the sales side, it's hard to find deals for investors, depending on the area you're looking in. Even homes that need a lot of work are being scooped up, usually for more than list, and within a few days. Frankly, I'm so sick of the "multiple offers/highest and best" line. 

    According to the latest stats I've seen, we still have an inventory of right around three months. Six months is considered a "balanced" market. Anything less is considered a seller's market.

    On the plus side for you as a landlord, my experience is that a weaker economy generates more renters. My company transferred me to the Bay Area in 2008, just as the economy was crashing down around us. At the time, I couldn't find a place to rent. There were always 15-20 applications ahead of me. I finally had to rent a place I hated for $1800 a month, and I was lucky to find it. Two years later I found a place I absolutely loved for $1400 a month.

  • Investor · San Jose, CA · Member since 2012 · 2k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    10y

    Joe,

    It's not easy to come out and admit "Houston, we have a problem."  Running a business is the same way.  It's not what it seems.  The insiders want to get out while the outsiders want to get in.  So the cycle continues.  I'm in agreement with you that the opportunity for the Houston market is 1-3 years from now given what the indicators are showing.  I hope this turbulence doesn't ruin your retirement plan.  I wish things will work out for you.

    Best of luck.

  • Real Estate Consultant · Houston, TX · Member since 2015 · 172 posts · 51 votes
    10y

    Hi @Joe Kim I appreciate your candor and your willingness to share how external factors can cause your good property deals to end up not being good deals, which ultimately has nothing to do with not picking good properties. I always see posts on the forum that talk about all the positives when considering purchasing in Houston, but rarely do I see posts such as yours. Two main things that should be at the top of the list for any investor considering Houston and that is storms (Homeowner's insurance) and property taxes; however in my opinion you are taking the right approach and that is to wait until you are no longer tired before making any decisions to sell and for the meantime I would begin to ask an agent for market rental information for the area where the properties are located to see what the current rent rates are and take a look at the screening process for potential tenants.

  • Investor · Houston, TX · Member since 2015 · 176 posts · 121 votes
    10y

    @Joe Kim Yep, Houston has its own set of problems. The property tax is the biggest thing for me. If I am making $150/door and the tax bill goes up $150/door I now have a non-performing investment. You might as well invest in the SF Bay Area at that point. At least the SF area has appreciation and Prop 13 to help over time.

    I don't see rents going flat, but I do hear about increased turnover in the east side and Energy corridor.

    Sometimes you just have to believe real estate does work.  

  • Rental Property Investor · SF Bay Area, CA · Member since 2014 · 352 posts · 543 votes
    10y

    @Rachel Pervis, @Michael Delpier, @Account Closed

    Thanks for feedback.  Interesting that it's mostly positive about Houston.  Maybe it's time for me to look for new property management?

    Any feedlback from investors who "love" their property managers in HOUSTON (my properties are in Spring and Humble, Tx)?  

    #1 priority is good tenant selection

    #2 reasonable maintenance costs

    #3 good team that keeps timely line of communication.

  • Investor · Houston, TX · Member since 2014 · 242 posts · 81 votes
    10y

    Hi @Joe Kim, I hear that @Jerry Ta is good but I haven't had the opportunity to use him myself. I'm looking to work with because I've gotten recommendations from successful Houston investors about him.

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    10y

    @Joe Kim  I am afraid I am in the camp that does not care for Texas in any way for buy and hold.

    1. property tax's ( have to pay for govmit if you have no state income tax) and not having state income tax does not help an out of area investor one bit if you live in a state with income tax.

    2. Expansive soils I have done about 20 flips there in the lst few years granted some were good but many just broke even to made no money.. because of these soil issues so its not a matter of if its when in my mind where your going to be dealing with these things that will wipe out any positive cash flow you may have had.

    3. wind hail and insurance rates.. when you have a hail storm sure insurance covers it but you pay higher rates in those areas and you have to pay deductible and inconvenience your tenant.

    4. Can build new at the same price you pay for your rental.. thereby delegating your 25 year old rental to permanent  rental status.. as buyers want knew for same price.

    If you can crystal ball and by inner city areas that are coming back like parts of North Dallas were we do very well on FLIPS only you would never buy those for cash flow because they would be worse than bay area on cash flow.  those are some opps.   I would take CA WAY before Texas personally if I actually wanted to own rentals.

  • Real Estate Investor/Broker · Irving, TX · Member since 2015 · 520 posts · 263 votes
    10y
    Joe Kim Just curious, what year(s) did you buy these properties?
  • Investor · Corpus Christi, TX · Member since 2012 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y

    @Joe Kim

    What market you purchase in won't matter if properties aren't purchased right. Young investors have short memories and are paying far too much for properties...betting the market will always go up. It won't.  Folks who purchased in the last few years to hold (in many Texas markets) will be getting spanked (are you feeling the pain yet) very soon. I went from flipping to wholesaling / retailing properties and we're making very nice margins with little risk due to creative structuring of our deals. In fact, a good deal of of buyers of investment properties in Texas are Californian's. Most Texas investors love California investors because nobody will pay more for an investment property than California investors...often paying retail or even more and they almost always pay cash. I saw how this strategy failed those out of state investors in 2009 and it will surely be worse next time around.   

    Everyone wants to be a rehabber because it's the sexy side of real estate, but it's also risky and margins are often way too thin for my comfort level.  Buy and hold is great as long as you can weather the inevitable market corrections and that will be hard to do unless you "bought right" and don't over-leverage.  Those that did will feel the pain (negative cash flow that will drain their reserves) and new opportunities will be born for us non-buy and hold guys. We have picked up a few properties from oil guys lately as they see the writing on the wall and preparing for the long haul.  

    Investing is Texas is great as long as you're not single minded in your strategy...no market ever remains the same and adapting is extremely important. 

    As for me, I'm stashing cash and waiting for the next market correction where the opportunities will abound.

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    10y

    @Guy Gimenez  your in insinuating that a buy and hold investor could lose a property are you.

    so many on BP talk about how buy and hold is immune to a down turn..

    very limited experience by many who preach that mantra.

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    10y

    @Account Closed  or they are unstable to begin with as in D type areas with D type tenants.

    I think he said they are not renewing

    my experience is that tenants in the south east were we had our 350 home portfolio stay 18 months on average so turn over is real and it skews your returns big time

  • Investor · San Jose, CA · Member since 2012 · 2k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    10y

    @Jay Hinrichs,

    I just keep reminding the folks at local meet-ups that the grass is NOT greener on the other side. They live in one of the most profitable markets in the world, and they're being lazy and short-sighted. I showed them how they could have all of their investment back after 1.5 years, and their ROI would be infinity after that. In 10 years, they could own 60-80 units in the Bay Area. Imagine how much cash-flow those babies would be pumping out then.

    If history is any indication, the newbies in more expensive markets like SoCal, Bay Area, Seattle, New York will likely regret for not heeding your advice looking back in 10 years.  As you've already have known, we don't have that many 10 years in our lives.  :>)

    FOLKS, please take a look at what Guy said below.  When you invest out of state, you have a bullseye on your back, chest and forehead.  All of us would like to believe we are the exceptions although we know in the back of our head that the odds are against us.  It's so sad to see CA investors getting whacked left and right, but every person will have to learn from their own mistakes I guess.

    "In fact, a good deal of of buyers of investment properties in Texas are Californian's. Most Texas investors love California investors because nobody will pay more for an investment property than California investors...often paying retail or even more and they almost always pay cash. I saw how this strategy failed those out of state investors in 2009 and it will surely be worse next time around."

    Best of luck.

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    10y

    @Account Closed  Oregonians say the EXACT same thing..

    when they over price a home they say well we will just advertise in CA some sucker will come up and buy it...

    Texas in my mind as buy and hold unless you get a smokin deal is a very tough place to own them for the reasons I state that are out of your control..

    Anyone just needs to listen to Bruce Norris when he bought a bunch of Texas properties and exited as soon as he could.. And he is one of the most respected CA investors there is.

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    10y

    @Guy Gimenez  buy right sell right away make profit is alive and well in every market in the US.

    this is something the local folks do.. hard to do if your not in the market as your average investor.

    One of my peirs here in Oregon was lookgin for some other market for court house steps activities since Oregon is so tough right now.

    I recommended them to go to San Antionio.. they bought just under 1 mil first time out in April I am waiting to see how they do.. if they do well I will help with their efforts but its 30 to 60 day deals for me.

  • Investor · Corpus Christi, TX · Member since 2012 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y

    @Jay Hinrichs 

    That is exactly our strategy....I call it the Tiger Woods method...get in and get out.  

    We are buying quite a few in San Antonio right now too...great market with good margins and not we don't have to deal with with tons of investors who are willing to pay retail pricing.   

  • Investor · Houston, TX · Member since 2015 · 176 posts · 121 votes
    10y

    I agree with @Jay Hinrichs, @Account Closed

    When I moved from California to Texas, every realitor was trying to sell me over priced poop like I was a dumb Californian. Got very annoying.

    But it comes down to, "you need to know your market".

    I know (knew) the San Jose and San Francisco peninsula market well. I could buy deals there even in this s hot market if my support team was still intact. Sadly, it is not and this no longer my market.

    North west Houston is now my market and there are deals here too. You can do buy and holds here, but you better have your finger on the pulse of that neighborhood or it just might change on you.

    For example, schools in Houston drive a lot of the home "value". If they build more houses and therefore need a new high school, the value of your house has just changed it two ways. 1) the new school is not established and therefore does not have a rating = Lower value, and 2) the new homes are most likely near or sometimes below your previous comp value. People want newer. This drops your value.

    The new school could also drive up your tax.

    I would prefer to invest in the SF peninsula, but I have not figured out the long distance thing in combo with the high entry price yet.

  • Rental Property Investor · Houston, TX · Member since 2012 · 17 posts · 8 votes
    10y

    Since the Houston metro covers a large area, it depends where you buy your next deal.  Personally, I would never buy anything 3 miles south and north of 610 between 288 and Martin Luther King because of the high crime and gang activity.  Most of my properties are within 5 miles of my home in Eastwood and extend to the Gulfgate area which has been quite lucrative.  I screen my tenants and have had very good luck with them and no turnover (2 tenants over 2 years and 1 tenant with an extended lease).  I'm hoping to find other investors in my area to partner up on deals and learn a few more strategies to buy and hold.

  • Rental Property Investor · SF Bay Area, CA · Member since 2014 · 352 posts · 543 votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Guy Gimenez:

    @Joe Kim

    What market you purchase in won't matter if properties aren't purchased right. Young investors have short memories and are paying far too much for properties...betting the market will always go up. It won't.  Folks who purchased in the last few years to hold (in many Texas markets) will be getting spanked (are you feeling the pain yet) very soon.

    Hi Guy,  I agree with you in principle.  Yes, we should all strive to buy properties at a cheaper price with good rent to value ratios, etc..

    I bought my property in 2013, 100K, $1200/month rent 3 bed/2ba 1500 sqft home.  1.2% rent to value ratio is not bad at all.  It should be a solid investment at $400/month cash flow.  

    Before the turnover, my previous tenant was paying $1350/month rent.   I'm putting it on the market for a reasonable $1300/month

    However, rising taxes, turnover, high maintenance costs, property management costs all eat into cash flow.  

  • Rental Property Investor · SF Bay Area, CA · Member since 2014 · 352 posts · 543 votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

    @Jay Hinrichs,

    I just keep reminding the folks at local meet-ups that the grass is NOT greener on the other side. They live in one of the most profitable markets in the world, and they're being lazy and short-sighted. I showed them how they could have all of their investment back after 1.5 years, and their ROI would be infinity after that. In 10 years, they could own 60-80 units in the Bay Area. Imagine how much cash-flow those babies would be pumping out then.

    Thanks Minh.   I think you are right and wrong about "not greener on the other side".   It may be more correct to say, "it is greener on our side and not so green on our side."    Any good investor can make money anywhere if you find your niche and make it work.  Anyone with lack of knowledge + bad timing can lose a lot of money investing in the bay area too.

    I've definitely made money investing with turnkey providers outside of california but got better at finding better deals with some experience.  

    That being said, I would love to switch my focus to the Bay area.  Although I'm not lazy or short-sighted, I'm a little short on time given my current situation with 3 little kids and a very busy full time job that I have no plans quitting.  Since I'm short on time and live in the SF bay area, I leveraged the gains/equity in my home to buy properties that cash flow better than the ones in the bay area.   

    I would love to learn more about how you make it "green on our side here at the SF bay area".   Account Closed do you need any private lending or equity partners so I can learn from you?

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