So I have a rental that is currently on the market in the A+ neighborhood in San Francisco.. When I posted the listing on Zillow 13 days ago, the Zillow calculated rent is $4600, and that became $4300 today...
Also, for the first time in maybe 10 years, I have people come in and asked if I can drop my asking price from $4250 to $4000...
I think the correction that many of us on BP anticipated is starting now....
Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2015 · 4 posts · 1 vote
9y
This is very interesting thread. I didn't know rents were so high in the bay area. For comparision, you can easily get a brand new 2bd 2ba for about 1/3 of that price in Las Vegas.
@Diane G. - According to my own analysis, I believe real estate prices (based on a median of nationwide prices) would start going down about 2 years after interest rates start rising. I don't see the next downturn as bad as the last one. Perhaps the Bay Area is ahead of that nationwide curve. It's been over 2 months since the original post, do you still have a sense that things are headed downwards in San Francisco?
It has been 2 months and the downturn is more apparent now.... I am waiting for some real drop in price to buy my next, hopefully a 10% discount from today's price....
I came across a few new rental listing in Los Altos last week, where the owner paid $2.5M ish and put on the market for rent the very next day after close for $6.5K.... Lol, he/she would be losing $3K easy per my calculation...
I am waiting for my chance to buy that "only" creats $1K loss per month....
...When I posted the listing on Zillow 13 days ago, the Zillow calculated rent is $4600, and that became $4300 today...
It sounds like the algorithm dynamically scans market place rental data and recomputes rent amount according based on prevailing conditions... is there an address for the listing? You may want to manually verify the data. It also seems you are really concerned about there being a downturn or correction in the market from some of the discussions.
My wife and I are making a bet that the Bay Area market is about to nose over and are selling our little 2+1 house in Albany CA (between Berkeley and El Cerrito). It went on MLS on Friday. www.911evelyn.com. About ten agents brought clients through on Saturday. Open house #1, 2:00-4:30 on Sunday (yesterday), our agent says 200 people walked through and she handed out 100 flyers. It's either, "This *has* to be the high point of this market," or, "I sure wish we'd held on another 6-12 months." Time will tell.
Dropping of the other shoe: after a second open house on Easter Sunday, and after 12 days on the market, we got four offers of $1 million or more. The winner waived all contingencies -- inspection, appraisal, finance, the works -- and was also the most dollars. For us, more than 400% appreciation in 20 years. Pretty crazy for a 1,100 square foot 2+1.
Chicken Little much? I would subscribe to Occams Razor and say there is probably a pretty simple solution (Which I believe people posted about). More Apartment buildings were created in the area of your rental, so demand went down. That's a much more plausible explanation than the bubble bursting.
Rental Property Investor · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
9y
Instead of the usual suspects talking out of their ***, may I suggest looking at facts? Below is an extensive analysis of the spring 2017 SF housing market, which btw, negates much of the wild speculation posited in this tread.
Real Estate Broker · Redwood City, CA · Member since 2014 · 679 posts · 888 votes
9y
In fact, the market does go up significantly in 2017. About 10% median price appreciation in 2017 as compared to 2016 in Bay Area.
I looked at my post 3 months earlier and it seems not too far from what is happening. LOL.