It's Feeling a Lot Like 2007
Hi All,
Wanted to start a discussion on peoples outlook on the real estate market and the economy in general. I know it is a controversial topic but I have not seen many discussions on BiggerPocket on this topic and I believe they are important conversations to have.
Here are my general thoughts on the topic.
Economies always go through cycles and we are coming up on the longest bull market era in history. If history is any indication of the future their have always been corrections or crashes every 8-10 years.
Data
1. Interest rates are rising and the yield curve is flattening a tell tale sign of future growth expectations are declining
2. Corporations are turning to stock buybacks because they cannot find internal or M&A returns that can get a high enough return. Once buybacks are done will corporations begin to "restructure" or contract leading to layoffs and the downward spiral of layoff, people not buying as many goods and services leading to more layoffs.
3. Inflation is another worry when prices begin to increase at a higher rate after almost a century of 2% inflation people are going to be inclined to buy less leading to the ugly spiral as well.
4. In the stock market is extremely over prices with PE ratios being the highest they have ever been.
5. Housing prices especially in California have increase much more rapidly then wage increases and I do not see this as a sustainable recipe.
There are many other factors and coming from an analytical background i know there are ways to spin the numbers to make it look any way you want.
I cannot time the market and nor do I think anyone can but I am writing this post to get others perspectives about where we are and what they think of the future outlook of the economy. With the ways things are, my guess is there will be at least a big correction in 2019 or 2020 but I could be way off as well.
I would like to get peoples opinions on both sides. I am not someone stuck in my ways and truly believe that debating with someone that has complete opposite views is the best way to learn in life.
