Investing in a duplex when you know the market is going drop.

Investing in a duplex when you know the market is going drop.

Rensselaer, NY · Member since 2017 · 4 posts · 0 votes

Good morning,

I had a quick question regarding buying a buy and hold rental duplex using the house hacking strategy and I wanted to gather some opinions on buying this kind of investment when the market is at its peak. I understand that nobody wants to buy at the peak of the market, but in my situation I may need to buy my first duplex at right around the peak of the market. I know that nobody can time the market, but I definitely think it's safe to say that the market could potentially crash in the next 5 years or sooner. I want to know if buying a buy and hold house hack is a good idea even if the home lost 20-30 percent of its value. I can estimate right now that the property would save us about 10k a year instead of renting, so I would use the money we save to invest when the market plummets. I know this has touched several topics but if anyone has any clue about a strategy to use at the top of the market I would appreciate the reply.

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  • Member since 2018 · 5 posts · 14 votes
    7y

    If you were planning on holding regardless, the only difference will be that you will have no equity. If you were planning on doing a BRRRR that isn't available anymore.

    If your goal was simply negating a huge chunk of your cost of living, that can still be accomplished

  • Rensselaer, NY · Member since 2017 · 4 posts · 0 votes
    7y

    Hey thanks for the reply Matthew,

    The goal would mainly be to negate a big chunk of the cost of living as you said and I would not sell it unless the value rose substantially from buying it. So I guess this is safe?

  • Specialist · Lakewood, CO · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    7y

    @Jeremy Whittaker the only thing you lose in the down market is an exit strategy. If you sell then, you lose money. Otherwise, depending on where you live, the cost of rent may climb in a down market because everyone is becoming a renter, so if you didn't plan to sell anyway you could win even more.

    As long as you do not see a scenario where you would be forced to sell during a bust, then it is very likely a good idea based on cash flow and ability to reinvest that reduced living cost income.

  • Rensselaer, NY · Member since 2017 · 4 posts · 0 votes
    7y

    Hi Bryan,

    Thank you for the reply and the advice. I hadn't thought about this situation like this before.

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