How are you handling the hype? This article and vid shows the herd in effect...

How are you handling the hype? This article and vid shows the herd in effect...

Real Estate Investor · Member since 2012 · 189 posts · 32 votes

If you guys haven't seen or read about the growing bubble, this is a great read (and vid reference) on the actual experience in the so cal market (san diego in this vid) - Jim the Realtor is a great watch :)

Just an FYI, you can find some helpful info on CalculatedRisks's blog site. Here's the link to the article about the growing hype

Given the heavily manipulated factors in the market, I'm not sure how safe it is to flip ... in so cal at least. We're dealing with artificially uptrending prices thanks to low inventory, low interest rates, high demand (hedgefund money, typical and growing re investors, and the conventional home buyer). Meanwhile the job market has been declining to flat. That said, (I heard this from a norris group talk recently) if trends continue to where new construction begins to pencil, the economy can turn around. The problem will be that the already inflated market will not have much foundation to stand on. I've been looking at some of the numbers in the area, and if trends continue to the 2005-7 days, I'm not sure how most hh income will be able to support such high pricing.

Are you guys continuing to flip in this uncertain market - well, at least in the LA / SO CAL area? What's the ideal strategy/ies to have in an uptrending (bubble) market? The only position I see as "smart" might be (2 actually): 1. buy/flip early in the trend (but early is relative to what the cycle will be); and 2. be the enabler of purchasing r/e (as an agent/broker, lender, etc. etc).

How are you approaching the current and uptrending market?

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Will BarnardPro Member
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Developer · Santa Clarita, CA · Member since 2008 · 15k+ posts · 10k+ votes
13y

Not sure I agree with the dotted projection line showing that great of a decline, and in addition, it is a chart for a National average. As we all know here on Biggerpockets, even though the rest of the country fails to rwealize it, there is NO such thing as a national RE market. All markets are local.

In CA, that projection line would have to go up a bit and then a drop from the upcoming bubble burst that will likely happen.

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  • Rental Property Investor · San Diego, CA · Member since 2011 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    13y

    I'm new, and wholesale. Probably the safest position to be in I guess...

    I am holding two, both I feel very comfortable owning even if the market fell into the ground like before. I get very nervous with all the talks and how speculative it seems to be getting. I'm just remembering not to drink the kool aid.

  • Real Estate Investor · Member since 2012 · 189 posts · 32 votes
    13y


    What's the duration of a cycle?

    looking at this chart, it looks like ~5yrs (for a boom at least)

    find other charts here

  • Investor · Willow Spring, NC · Member since 2009 · 5k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    13y

    Too funny!! That dotted line starts... what?... two years ago? All RE markets are local. I guess I'm just glad I'm not in California. Seems like boom/bust cycles happen 3-4 times more frequently than everywhere else.

  • Altus, OK · Member since 2008 · 2k+ posts · 690 votes
    13y

    Calling Will Barnard come in please :)

  • Real Estate Investor · chicago, IL · Member since 2012 · 1k+ posts · 231 votes
    13y

    california is a crazy market...the craziest in the country. It's just a correction...that state got killed & is recovering.

    When something goes up 20-30% in a year, goes down the same, it can come back up 10% & right now, investors would kill for that kind of appreciation.

  • Will BarnardPro Member
    Moderator
    Developer · Santa Clarita, CA · Member since 2008 · 15k+ posts · 10k+ votes
    13y

    Not sure I agree with the dotted projection line showing that great of a decline, and in addition, it is a chart for a National average. As we all know here on Biggerpockets, even though the rest of the country fails to rwealize it, there is NO such thing as a national RE market. All markets are local.

    In CA, that projection line would have to go up a bit and then a drop from the upcoming bubble burst that will likely happen.

  • Investor, Entrepreneur, Educator · Springfield, MO · Member since 2009 · 21k+ posts · 12k+ votes
    13y

    I believe the classic technician or chartist would say the next downward trend would level off at or just above the previous high. Me too... :)

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