Time to sell in Danville and move to SF?

Buying & Selling Real Estate
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Time to sell in Danville and move to SF?

Ethen NA
Member since 2020 · 3 posts · 0 votes

Hi,

I have a townhouse in Danville ( East Bay ) - as my primary residence- and I am planning to sell it . The San Ramon/Danville market is currently really hot. There are too many buyer coming from SF and other area because of COVID, inventory is very low and houses are getting almost 10 to 20 offers in almost a day with offers at least 100k above the asking price. Basically it is a seller market and the appreciation is like 2018 or even better. 

I really like San Ramon/Danville . The community is great , very new houses , schools are 10 out of 10 , but I really don't know if it make sense to sell my townhouse and change to single family . Although I can sell at good price but then I have to buy a lot more to buy a single family

I heard the situation is the opposite in SF . I would greatly appreciate your opinion about  SF market and whether it will bounce back after COVID?   Also whether this crazy market will crash in East Bay . And do you think it is a wise move to sell in East Bay and move to SF now?

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Chris MasonPro Member
Moderator
Lender · CA · Member since 2015 · 9k+ posts · 10k+ votes
6y

Buying in SF is a bet that a) "jumbo" loans will return to 2019-levels of availability and b) working from home is going to largely go away once the economy re-opens.

For b, your guess is as good as mine.

For a, you can track the general ease of availability of jumbo loans at the following link. March 2020 was a 37% decline in availability. August 2020 was another 8.9% decline. And so on in between. When your friend told you that Wells Fargo asked her for a $1,000,000 deposit into a Wells Fargo checking account in exchange for doing her jumbo refinance, that's what we're talking about when we say "general ease of availability" -- asking someone for a $1,000,000 deposit to do their refi would be NOT "generally easy and available" for most people (lol).

It is not yet captured in any publicly facing data, but I'm seeing indications that jumbo may right now be turning the other direction.

https://www.mba.org/news-resea...

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  • Chris MasonPro Member
    Moderator
    Lender · CA · Member since 2015 · 9k+ posts · 10k+ votes
    6y

    Buying in SF is a bet that a) "jumbo" loans will return to 2019-levels of availability and b) working from home is going to largely go away once the economy re-opens.

    For b, your guess is as good as mine.

    For a, you can track the general ease of availability of jumbo loans at the following link. March 2020 was a 37% decline in availability. August 2020 was another 8.9% decline. And so on in between. When your friend told you that Wells Fargo asked her for a $1,000,000 deposit into a Wells Fargo checking account in exchange for doing her jumbo refinance, that's what we're talking about when we say "general ease of availability" -- asking someone for a $1,000,000 deposit to do their refi would be NOT "generally easy and available" for most people (lol).

    It is not yet captured in any publicly facing data, but I'm seeing indications that jumbo may right now be turning the other direction.

    https://www.mba.org/news-resea...

    1Reply
  • Brian Garlington
    Realtor · Oakland, CA and a Real Estate Investor with Multi-Family Units and a Self Storage Facility · Member since 2016 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    6y

    It’s not surprising you are looking at the idea of selling the townhouse in Danville and possibly buying an sfr is n The City. 

    Lots of people in the Bay Area are selling townhomes and condos right now, because the “Cramped Covid Condo” lifestyle is not what they signed up for. Keep in mind that sfr s in The City are going way above asking price because of low inventory but 2nd and 3rd quarter of 2021 floodgates will open and you will most likely be able to get that sfr The City for less than what you would be paying in 2020

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  • Ethen NA
    OP
    Member since 2020 · 3 posts · 0 votes
    6y
    Thanks Chris. It is a great idea to follow jumbo loan trend . Availability of jumbo loans is really important to determine when the prices bounce back at SF 

    Originally posted by @Chris Mason:

    Buying in SF is a bet that a) "jumbo" loans will return to 2019-levels of availability and b) working from home is going to largely go away once the economy re-opens.

    For b, your guess is as good as mine.

    For a, you can track the general ease of availability of jumbo loans at the following link. March 2020 was a 37% decline in availability. August 2020 was another 8.9% decline. And so on in between. When your friend told you that Wells Fargo asked her for a $1,000,000 deposit into a Wells Fargo checking account in exchange for doing her jumbo refinance, that's what we're talking about when we say "general ease of availability" -- asking someone for a $1,000,000 deposit to do their refi would be NOT "generally easy and available" for most people (lol).

    It is not yet captured in any publicly facing data, but I'm seeing indications that jumbo may right now be turning the other direction.

    https://www.mba.org/news-resea...

    0Reply
  • Ethen NA
    OP
    Member since 2020 · 3 posts · 0 votes
    6y
    Brian , if I device to move to SF , I will sell my townhouse in Danville and buy a condo or townhouse in SF. I know how precious single family houses are now in SF, so I will not go for single family house . But I see condos are going way below asking price ( even up to to 300k below asking price )   
    Although it is my primary residence I though it might be a good investment to sell at max in Danville and buy a condo with massive price cut at SF . There is a big BUT here . Are the condos bounce back in SF after COVID ?  Because ultimately after 2,3 years I would like to sell than condo and return to San Ramon/Danville ( not a big fan of city lifestyle :) )

    Originally posted by @Brian Garlington:

    It’s not surprising you are looking at the idea of selling the townhouse in Danville and possibly buying an sfr is n The City. 

    Lots of people in the Bay Area are selling townhomes and condos right now, because the “Cramped Covid Condo” lifestyle is not what they signed up for. Keep in mind that sfr s in The City are going way above asking price because of low inventory but 2nd and 3rd quarter of 2021 floodgates will open and you will most likely be able to get that sfr The City for less than what you would be paying in 2020

    0Reply
  • Amit M.
    Rental Property Investor · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    6y

    @Ethen NA
    You just said you’re not crazy about living in the city. So no, I think it makes little sense to sell now, pay commissions, buy in SF, and do the same in 2-3 years. Transaction costs will eat into potential profit, or even lead to a loss.

    As for future values in SF, of course the city is going to bounce back in 2-3 years big time. S.F. is a prime, internationally recognized location. The “leaving the city” articles you’re reading feed on hype and are temporary. 

    But, if you do like city living and were priced out before, I’d definitely ditch the townhouse and buy a condo in one of the areas taking a hit on prices like soma, downtown, etc. There are definitely some good deals available now, but I wouldn’t count on flipping it in 2-3 years. 5-10 years yes, the transaction costs may become much less of an issue. Or aspirationally, hold it as a pied-a-terre :)

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