How estimate "right" price for a home about to buy?

How estimate "right" price for a home about to buy?

Member since 2020 · 5 posts · 1 vote

We are trying to buy a SFH in a highly competitive Seattle market where every home is being sold for more than list price. We are prepared to offer more than asking but how do we determine the point at which it becomes more of a risk than investment? We worked with three different agents and all of them ended up saying that "it is worth what someone is willing to pay". This statement is true but it is true only under current conditions.

For example, we are interested in a 650K SFH and it has garnered a lot of interest. We might have to compete with more than 10 offers. We really like the house and are willing to go way above asking. My agent says that we should be prepared to pay up to 750K if we want to get the home. We have no problem with that price as long as it is the "right-ish" price. I know its hard to pin on a "right" price. My agent says that 750K is a right price since there is so much demand and less supply. He also says that there is a slight chance that the appraisal might come in 10-15K lower. Then how is 750K a good price? One of our primary goals is to build equity. I am afraid if we overpay by a lot then we will end up not building equity.

When I look on Redfin (I know. I know. Its not the most accurate tool), most of the similar homes nearby consistently have a Redfin estimate of 670K - 700K. However, when this particular home came on the market, it was listed at 650K with a Redfin estimate of 680K. Within 5 days the Redfin estimate has shot up to 735K. So I am not really sure how to evaluate such a listing.

- A pricing analysis based on recent sales in the neighborhood indicated that the home is worth between 690K - 720K

- The home is mostly original inside (1987 built) so the higher price is not due to any upgrades.

- Generally well maintained home without any major issues.

Thanks for your time.

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Michael HaasBusiness Member
Real Estate Agent · Sammamish, 🌧️ Seattle Investor-Agent | 🤑 Helped 400+ Clients Invest in Real Estate | 🏘️ Owns 23 WA Rentals & Airbnbs | 🏗️ Built 5 DADU's | 📈 You Can Do It Too · Member since 2016 · 725 posts · 3k+ votes
5y

Hi @Page Trip - Theresa has good advice here; you don't want to get caught up in a bidding war, but at the same time if a property is selling for $1,000 over your offer and you're kicking yourself it means that you should have offered more (usually with an escalation clause). 

Seems like you've got two problems - 

1. You Don't Know If This House Is A Good Deal: Sounds like this is just a home for you, so analyzing it as a rental probably won't make sense for you. As Sherief said, have your agent run a CMA and look closely at the comps in the area to see if there's good justification for $750k. If there isn't you can still go there if you really want the house, but know that you risk having to throw more money into the deal after the appraisal and that you'll be digging yourself out of negativity equity for a little bit.

2. You Don't Trust Your Agent: This sounds like it could be your agent's fault, but its also worth doing a quick self examination and making sure you're a good client too. For example: did you scheduled showings short notice when your agent was on the phone and rushing you through the showings? Its possible she/he already had plans and work to do, and was making a sacrifice and doing her best to squeeze you in regardless. You're right, most good agents are super busy right now.

If you scheduled this far in advance or its a repeating issue with this agent though, you may want to start interviewing Agent #4. They're your voice and guide in the very scary process of buying a home, so you have a right to feel good about your representation.

HouseHack Seattle | Michael Haas & Team572 Reviews
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  • Theresa HarrisPro Member
    Member since 2019 · 15k+ posts · 11k+ votes
    5y

    Is this a house for your or a rental?  If it is for you and you plan on being there a long time, ask yourself how much you would offer and if it went for $1K more, you wouldn't kick yourself for not getting it.  Also remember it has to appraise for that amount to get your financing.

    If it is going to be a rental, run the numbers and stick with them. Don't let your emotions get the better of you.

    When buying in a competitive market, remember you can add an escalation clause that your offer increases by a certain amount (say $1K) up to a max of $Y.  So if your initial offer is for $550K and there are multiple offers, the highest is $565K and you set your max at $575K with $1K escalation, then your final offer would be $566K.

  • Realtor · Seattle, WA · Member since 2020 · 36 posts · 19 votes
    5y

    There are many strategies to consider in our competitive Seattle market, but all of them depend on your ultimate goals. Is this your dream home? Do you intend to stay there for quite awhile, or is it a starter home? You can offer more, but are you willing to pay the difference if it doesn't appraise for what you offered? Are there other things that are important to the seller that you could offer? Your agent should be taking all of this into consideration and advise you on how aggressive to be based on those factors!

  • Member since 2020 · 5 posts · 1 vote
    5y
    Originally posted by @Brie Groves:

    There are many strategies to consider in our competitive Seattle market, but all of them depend on your ultimate goals. Is this your dream home? Do you intend to stay there for quite awhile, or is it a starter home? You can offer more, but are you willing to pay the difference if it doesn't appraise for what you offered? Are there other things that are important to the seller that you could offer? Your agent should be taking all of this into consideration and advise you on how aggressive to be based on those factors!

     Thank you for your response. This will be our starter home but we probably will stay here for a long time unless we have to move out of the country. We have cash to pay for the difference if it does not appraise, but we don't want to be in that position. I switched 3 agents until now and none of them in Seattle seem to care about buyers. With so much demand they are leaving it to us to make the decisions as its frustrating. 

  • Realtor · Seattle, WA · Member since 2020 · 36 posts · 19 votes
    5y

    Yes, as an agent, that is frustrating to hear and although it is a tough market, I would hope that your agent has all of the tools to help you make the best offer based on the particular property and your wishes. We are here to advise you in your best interest at all times and have an ethical duty to do so. It isn't uncommon for buyers to go through a number of rounds of offers before having theirs accepted, and usually it ends up being the one they love! I would have a heart to heart with your agent and see what the disconnect might be, be honest about, but ultimately, you should feel confident that they are working hard for you. 

  • Realtor · Bellevue, WA · Member since 2019 · 882 posts · 1k+ votes
    5y

    @Page Trip, I know, it is not easy like the Seattle market. But just know that it is pretty common in here for the seller to receive a few offers, and sell above listing price. As you mentioned, Redfin is not so accurate, so you may have better numbers with a decent Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) report. One of the things I check is appreciation rate/year. You can calculate the average appreciation for the past 10 years or so. After that, check the appreciation rate if you put so high an offer like $750. If last year appreciation is many times the average year appreciation, this may be an indication that you are putting a too high offer.

    Let me know if you have comments or questions and feel free to call or message and we can discuss more.

    Thanks,

  • Member since 2020 · 5 posts · 1 vote
    5y
    Originally posted by @Sherief Elbassuoni:

    @Page Trip, I know, it is not easy like the Seattle market. But just know that it is pretty common in here for the seller to receive a few offers, and sell above listing price. As you mentioned, Redfin is not so accurate, so you may have better numbers with a decent Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) report. One of the things I check is appreciation rate/year. You can calculate the average appreciation for the past 10 years or so. After that, check the appreciation rate if you put so high an offer like $750. If last year appreciation is many times the average year appreciation, this may be an indication that you are putting a too high offer.

    Let me know if you have comments or questions and feel free to call or message and we can discuss more.

    Thanks,

    Thank you very much Sherif. I have not looked at past 10 year appreciation but, for example, a similar floor-plan home (square footage lower by 40sqft but plot size bigger by 1000 sqft) which is 2 houses down got sold for 620K last year. I don't think the homes would have appreciated by 20% in 1 year. I could be wrong??? I think another issue is the trust. Our agent always hurries us through the tours and while we were touring yesterday she was on multiple phone calls during the showing. So feel that she might not be putting in her 100%.  This is our third agent and every agent has some issues (our first agent forgot to take appointment for a home). I feel like every agent is so busy due to the demand that they are unable to give their 100%. But it is a huge deal for us since this is our first home and we are putting in close to 3/4th million dollars. With offer review date so close, I am completely confused. We love the home but we are afraid we might be losing all our savings.

  • Rental Property Investor · Everett, WA · Member since 2015 · 458 posts · 386 votes
    5y

    @Page Trip The market is extremely competitive at the moment in desirable neighborhoods.  This is due to the fact that there is historically low inventory on the market currently as many people who have houses are not interested in moving due to COVID-19. Combine this will historically low interest rates and the fact that many renters who can afford houses are looking to get out of apartments is leading to rapid price increases.

    While not necessarily the popular opinion, have you thought about waiting until further into next year before purchasing a home?  Based on the information the Fed has released, it seems likely they are going to continue to hold interest rates down.  You do take the risk that prices will continue to escalate but it could also go the other way as more people list their homes for sale.

    Best of luck,

    John

  • Michael HaasBusiness Member
    Real Estate Agent · Sammamish, 🌧️ Seattle Investor-Agent | 🤑 Helped 400+ Clients Invest in Real Estate | 🏘️ Owns 23 WA Rentals & Airbnbs | 🏗️ Built 5 DADU's | 📈 You Can Do It Too · Member since 2016 · 725 posts · 3k+ votes
    5y

    Hi @Page Trip - Theresa has good advice here; you don't want to get caught up in a bidding war, but at the same time if a property is selling for $1,000 over your offer and you're kicking yourself it means that you should have offered more (usually with an escalation clause). 

    Seems like you've got two problems - 

    1. You Don't Know If This House Is A Good Deal: Sounds like this is just a home for you, so analyzing it as a rental probably won't make sense for you. As Sherief said, have your agent run a CMA and look closely at the comps in the area to see if there's good justification for $750k. If there isn't you can still go there if you really want the house, but know that you risk having to throw more money into the deal after the appraisal and that you'll be digging yourself out of negativity equity for a little bit.

    2. You Don't Trust Your Agent: This sounds like it could be your agent's fault, but its also worth doing a quick self examination and making sure you're a good client too. For example: did you scheduled showings short notice when your agent was on the phone and rushing you through the showings? Its possible she/he already had plans and work to do, and was making a sacrifice and doing her best to squeeze you in regardless. You're right, most good agents are super busy right now.

    If you scheduled this far in advance or its a repeating issue with this agent though, you may want to start interviewing Agent #4. They're your voice and guide in the very scary process of buying a home, so you have a right to feel good about your representation.

    HouseHack Seattle | Michael Haas & Team572 Reviews
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