Thoughts on Paying Market Value but Cash Flowing Well

Thoughts on Paying Market Value but Cash Flowing Well

Louisville, CO · Member since 2013 · 47 posts · 5 votes

Hi Everyone,

I'm under contract on a 4BR/2BA home. It's very clear that I'm under contract at market value price. 147,500. However, it will rent for $1,500/month and taxes are dirt cheap.

It is also entirely renovated and has many appealing features for higher end clientele in the area (exposed wood beams, gourmet kitchen, hardwood floors throughout). It is by far the nicest home in the subdivision and we are receiving an incredible amount of interest via Craigslist for the home at $1,500/month. I have no concerns about it achieving that rent.

My question is this: Clearly, we are paying market value. However, it flows cash... and should flow very nicely. It is the epitome of a turn-key rental, which is very important for my wife and I at this stage in our lives as I run an Internet Marketing business and we have a 9 week old son.

The home is located in an area that historically does not appreciate well.

What are your thoughts on this as a first investment? I know you make money when you buy, but the market is making this more and more challenging to do in my area. If you find a deal that cash flows, even if it's priced at market value, are you shooting yourself in the foot? I'm estimating a COC of about 21-23%.

My thoughts were, at these interest rates (we are locked in at 4.5% for 30 years), it is OK to buy at market value because you are essentially getting loaned money at below market value.

About me and my strategy:

I'm 28 years old. My strategy is to be acquiring 1 home every 1-1.5 years with 20% down until I hit 4 properties. Taking their cash flow, paying off one home at a time and once one home is paid off, acquiring a new one and continuing that process until I'm in a position to either pay cash for a home, or pay it off within 3-4 years. My plan is to execute that over the course of 20+ years to eventually own 10+ homes.

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Rental Property Investor · Mercer Island, WA · Member since 2008 · 22k+ posts · 14k+ votes
13y

I have to make a few guesses to complete my analysis. I'm assuming you're going to put 20% down when you buy this house. You say "It is the epitome of a turn-key rental", so I'm going to also assume you will use a property manager.

My analysis gives this a cash flow of $152 a month and a cash on cash return of 6.2%. Here my complete analysis:

Purchase price: $147,500
Rehab cost: $0
Rent: $1,500
Exp, vacancy, capital %: 50%
Loan rate: 4.50%
Loan term: 30
Down payment %: 20%

Down payment: $29,500
Loan amount: $118,000
P&I payment: $597.89
Expenses, vacancy, capital: $750
Net Operating Income: $750
monthly cash flow: $152.11
annual cash flow: $1,825.34
total investment: $29,500
Cash on cash return: 6.19%

I think you're making a couple of invalid assumptions. One is that because its new and nicely renovated you won't have much maintenance or capital expenses. Most of the small maintenance is caused by tenants. New or not so new, stuff gets broken and damaged. Even a brand new furnace will need replacement 20 years from now, so you have to budget 1/20th of the cost every year.

High end finishes will need more maintenance going forward. Lots of discussion about bullet proofing rentals and what flooring holds up best (hint: the IRS assumes flooring lasts five years, I've been told judges here in CO assume carpet lasts three, so if the place has carpet, plan on replacing it every few years.)

I think you're thinking that because its a nicer rental that you will have less issues with tenants. I'm not sure there's any strong correlation.

See this reply in the discussion

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  • Flipper/Rehabber · Greeley, CO · Member since 2013 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    13y

    I had about 40 Craigslist calls before we found a renter for my last property which was a 4 bed with office, 2 bath, 1 car garage completely remodeled. $1200 a month and I thought that was stretching it.

    I have two more five bedrooms coming on board in about a week that will be $1400 and $1300 both totally remodeled one with walk out basement, ac, sprinklers, deck and 2 car garage. I paid 115 k and 113k for those in what I think are similar if not superior locations. I know we differ on our opinions on that subject as well. :) they needed work but were pretty decent.

    We are in a weird rental market due to our 1.6 % vacancy. That may produce some desperate Renters in the short term but I do not expect it to last.

  • Investor · Cincinnati, OH · Member since 2010 · 1k+ posts · 928 votes
    13y

    Expenses have a variety of underlying drivers, so yes it's imprecise to use a crude % of gross rent. Always better to come up with a little model for your area, particularly factoring in local tax and insurance rates. Heck, the ONLY thing directly driven by rents is PM fees and vacancy factor.

    * Taxes and insurance are driven by market value of house, ~.
    * Vacancy/turnover expenses are driven by the grade of area and type of property (SFR vs multi, # of bedrooms, etc.)
    * Maintenance is driven by size, age, and level of rehab performed.
    * Capital reserves are driven by size (tonnage and BTU of HVAC, squares of roofing, etc.), age of various components, and overall age of property.

    Will be entertaining to hear if you get your $1,500!

  • Louisville, CO · Member since 2013 · 47 posts · 5 votes
    13y

    David Beard -- Thanks for a quick analysis that makes perfect sense. I agree: If this home instead rents for 1,400/month, does that mean my expenses are suddenly only 700/month?

    I'm hopeful on the $1,500! Inspection report came back today and is about as flawless as you can get.

  • Denver, CO · Member since 2012 · 218 posts · 48 votes
    13y

    Perry Rosenbloom
    Congrats on finding a place that looks good on paper. I spent so many hours on this site beating myself up about deals that other people were finding, and I was new to single family investing so I thought I was missing something.

    I purchased a property of of the MLS and it couldn't have turned out better. Appreciation and 30 year fixed rates are what the big upside were even if I couldn't apply the rules others can pull of in other markets. Getting in the game was far better than sitting on the sidelines and trying to find that "perfect" deal. I would have missed out on the 12-15% appreciation the neighborhood saw in the last year.

  • Investor · Lucas, TX · Member since 2010 · 620 posts · 352 votes
    13y
    Originally posted by Patrick L.:
    Perry Rosenbloom I'm not sure how you figure a 2% vacancy rate, I would go with at least 8%.

    Gimme a break. That means your property is vacant for 1 month out of the year. If your turnover is every 11 months and it takes you 1 month to re-lease then you are doing something wrong.

    My "actual" vacancy rate calculated over the past 4 years is 2%! Most of the time my tenants stay for 2-3 years. I have tenants at the moment that have been with me for 8 years.

    When a tenant gives me notice that they are moving out I put the house on the market a few weeks before they move out and half the time I have qualified tenants moving in the next day after the current tenant moves out. The other half of the time it takes maybe 1 to 2 weeks.

    That said, I rent out $200K properties. It may be different in the $50K world.

  • Flipper/Rehabber · Greeley, CO · Member since 2013 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    13y

    Robert Steele
    I have 7 rentals now and after they have first been rented they have been vacant a total of 0 days. It's only been a couple years since I started. I even had a bonus in there for one property where the tenants moved out early. They paid the early termination fee and I still had it rented without having any vacant days. I am in the same market as Perry so that is a plus for him.

    Like you said, I am very proactive and get tenants ready to move in asap.

  • Investor · Lucas, TX · Member since 2010 · 620 posts · 352 votes
    13y

    Mark Ferguson That's awesome! I think it boils down to being proactive like you said.

    Touchstones that I think are important to keeping vacancy rates low:

    * Knowing when the lease is going to expire and finding out in advance what your tenants plans are.
    * Having quality properties as they are quicker to re-lease.
    * Having quality tenants that don't trash your place. Trash causes delays in re-leasing because you cannot show it to prospective tenants. Then there is the increased make-ready time once they move out. Quality tenants often come with quality properties.
    * Having a good relationship with your tenants by making them happy while still being firm but fair. I make my tenants happy by addressing their concerns immediately. Such as taking care of repairs issues as soon as they come up and giving them small concessions when requested (yes you can get a second pet with deposit, OK I will install a ceiling fan in that room for you).

    I also had a tenant terminate their lease early. It was last year. They paid 2 months rents to get out of it because they wanted to buy a house. I had it rented the very next day. I wonder if that counts as a negative vacancy rate? ;)

  • Louisville, CO · Member since 2013 · 47 posts · 5 votes
    13y

    Grant P. - Thanks! Paper is paper though... Hopefully I'm not terribly off. Inspection came back just about as expected... except the furnace is a TINY bit older than the impression given (as in 20 years older lol). That will likely change a few things...

    Robert Steele - That's what I figured :-)

    Mark Ferguson - Any advice on early termination fees? And re: rental and the rates: Off of the research I've done and info gathered, it does seem like a perfect storm for a landlord there. Homes have recovered nicely, accidental landlords are selling and kicking their tenants out, which is creating a surplus of tenants and a decreasing number of rental properties.

    Again, hopeful on the 1,500. The one intangible about that property are the exposed beams. It's a luxury aesthetic and is driving these prospective tenants to (theoretically) pay a little more.

  • Roy N.Pro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Fredericton, New Brunswick · Member since 2013 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    13y

    Perry Rosenbloom:

    If Mark Ferguson and others are telling you comparable houses in the area are renting for $1200 - $1300 per month, I would perform my analysis and structure my deal based on these values. If the numbers work with a gross revenue of 14,400/yr, then you will only have a bigger grin if you rent it for $1500/mth.

  • Real Estate Agent · Portland, OR · Member since 2013 · 412 posts · 219 votes
    13y

    Perry Rosenbloom I was just wondering if you had an update? I've been watching this thread with interest and wanted to know if you'd found a renter from the craigslist interest?

  • Louisville, CO · Member since 2013 · 47 posts · 5 votes
    13y

    Mathew Wray - Not yet. We have all schedulings set for the 15th (about 16 parties so far). Will update this thread once I have an update :-)

  • Flipper/Rehabber · Greeley, CO · Member since 2013 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    13y

    Perry Rosenbloom, I just got my 5/2 with 1 car garage rented by Sherwood park for $1300. One of my other tenants referred someone to me and I didn't even advertise it. I'll put a video of it up on my blog soon so you can compare it to yours.

  • Louisville, CO · Member since 2013 · 47 posts · 5 votes
    13y

    Mark Ferguson - Congrats, Mark! Great to hear :-)

  • Investor · Chicago, IL · Member since 2013 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    13y

    I agree with Jon Holdman. It's better to be conservative with your analysis than be sorry in the end. I ended up losing money on rentals (in good condition) in nice areas. I wished I was more conservative with my analysis when I was younger. I could have less white/gray hair by now.

    Remember: no deal is better than a bad one.

    The deal you presented is a mediocre one at best. There are better deals out there.

  • Louisville, CO · Member since 2013 · 47 posts · 5 votes
    13y

    Well, it's finally time for an update...

    Due to a number of factors, we re-negotiated down to 144, plus about $1,500 of work to be done on the home, paid for by the seller, before closing.

    We showed the house on the 15th after about 3 weeks of gathering prospective tenants. In total, I planned on around 15 parties showing up. Instead, we only had 4. 3 of them were unqualified and the last was uninterested.

    As depressing as it was, I took the opportunity to film a video of the home on my iPhone so that I could show the video to any future, prospective tenants. That was the one opportunity we had to show it before closing, which is on the 27th.

    I got home from Greeley at about 1:00PM. By 5:00PM, I had received 5 new inquiries on the home. Over the next few days, I received about another 5. I sent them all the video and an application and in total we received 3 applications back, all from qualified parties.

    After following up on references, we decided on a party and just received their deposit, first month's rent and the signed lease agreement. :-D

    Needless to say, I'm pretty thrilled. I've learned a lot from this experience that I'll take with me when we buy our next property. And I know there is a TON more to learn. And I can't wait for all the opportunities to learn, grow and adjust my strategies to maximize my returns.

    But, so far, at least I can say my analysis of the property and the rent it could fetch was 100% accurate.

  • Roy N.Pro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Fredericton, New Brunswick · Member since 2013 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    13y

    Good on you, Perry.

    Now, remember to use that above market rent to build a reserve fund (min: 6-mths) so you can smile during the rainy days when the come {you will have vacancy at some point}.

  • Investor · Chicago, IL · Member since 2013 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    13y

    Perry Rosenbloom, good job marketing the property to get a tenant. I hope you've prescreened the tenant very well to avoid problems down the road. I have a Tenant Screening Point System that works wonders.

    Also, I suggest getting the tenant give you Check Writer Authorization so you can write a check out of the tenant's account automatically so you will not wait for his rent check to come.

  • Investor · San Jose, CA · Member since 2011 · 355 posts · 90 votes
    13y

    Wendell De Guzman, tenants give you the authority to write your own checks against their bank accounts? I've never heard of that before and almost can't believe it. Does this really happen?

    Michael

  • Flipper/Rehabber · Greeley, CO · Member since 2013 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    13y

    Congratulations Perry! I'm glad to see you got it rented.

  • Louisville, CO · Member since 2013 · 47 posts · 5 votes
    13y

    Mark Ferguson - Thanks! After showing the home, I was seriously doubting if we would get our desired rent. Glad we did though!

    Wendell De Guzman - Thanks! Would love to see your prescreening checklist. I've been investigating some lease payment options, including erentpayment.com

    Roy N. - Definitely plan to! When it pours, it rains, right? :-)

  • Longview, TX · Member since 2012 · 368 posts · 131 votes
    13y

    Perry, did the amount of qualified renters that ultimately applied jive with your expectations based on response to your Craiglist ad? Do you expect $1500 to be achievable if vacancy rates climb?

    Great work and best of luck going forward. Thanks for the thread, definitely an interesting topic.

    Mike

  • Louisville, CO · Member since 2013 · 47 posts · 5 votes
    13y

    Mike M. - I expected more qualified renters to submit applications. But I was also in a slight pickle: I had about 15 inquiries/week, but could only show the home once as I don't own it yet, so our agent was required to be there for showings. I think if I showed the home every Saturday or Sunday to all the prospective tenants from the week, I would have had a larger pool of qualified tenants to choose from.

    I'm not sure re: vacancy rates and the rent. I would imagine if vacancy rates climb, 1500 will be more challenging to achieve. However, it's an interesting neighborhood: Zoning laws makes it so I cannot easily rent to college students; however, it's close enough to the University that we received a lot of interest from Graduate students and families with one family member going back to school.

    It's also in a good location for oil and natural gas employees. 2 minutes away from 2 major highways that provide access to sites further east and south.

    Overall, I learned a lot from this and am thrilled to get the rent I was hoping to get. My gut tells me next time that I'd rather pay less for a good enough home that can attract a wider pool of tenants.

    I'm excited to see how this all plays out, learn and apply my knowledge toward future deals.

  • Real Estate Investor · CO · Member since 2009 · 23 posts · 0 votes
    13y

    This was an interesting thread. Good read for sure.

    My thoughts are this. The 50% rule is pretty accurate over many many years, so always keep it in the back of your mind.

    While it's impossible to predict the future, the 50% rule does not figure in for future appreciation and higher/lower interest rates. I purchased a property in Denver in early 2008 as rates were sky rocketing and prices were falling off a cliff. Going off the 50% rule, I had a hard time pulling the trigger on the property as it didn't cash flow much, but I've since refied the property pulling out some cash, and lowering my interest rate by 4%. It's a cash cow now, and I have a massive amount of equity in it. Always something to consider if you're planning on being a long term investor.

    Sometimes you just have to make mistakes!!! It's very easy for you to have your preconceived notions on the deal, and it's easy for these guys to pencil out the deal and say it doesn't look good. If it's your first property it's super easy to just sit on the sidelines deal after deal because you're scared to pull the trigger. Congrats to you for doing it, and I hope it continues as well as it has out of the gate. It's a HUGE learning curve that can never be gained any other way than jumping in with both feet.

  • Investor · Chicago, IL · Member since 2013 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    13y

    Michael D., yes. We can write checks out of our tenants' checking accounts. It's our standard procedure and it works wonders! You need a CheckWriter software, the right Authorization letter signed by your tenants and blank checks you can get at Office Depot.

  • SFR Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2011 · 604 posts · 243 votes
    13y

    even if vacancy rates go up, if the house is unique, you might get $1500, but the problem is how long it will take to find that one tenant that will do it under those circumstances.

    I have one rental with a pool,,,I have a GREAT tenant in it that has had a pool for years,,I charge her about $200 a month less than I could get from others, because I don't have to worry about the pool.

    There are a lot of things to take into consideration when setting rents,

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