The last few years have been a reset for how I look at multifamily.

Between rising rates, tighter lending, and deals that suddenly stopped penciling, I had to revisit assumptions that used to feel pretty safe. Heading into 2026, I’m less focused on guessing where rates go next and more focused on what actually holds up when things get choppy.

A few things I keep coming back to based on what I’m seeing day to day:

• Predictable debt matters more than cheap debt. It’s hard to do anything when pricing is moving every month.

• Supply feels tighter than people realize. A lot fewer projects got started the last couple of years, and that’s starting to show up.

• Jobs still drive housing demand. In smaller and secondary markets especially, you feel it quickly when new employers show up.

• Leverage has to be respected again. Deals that rely on everything going right feel a lot riskier now.

I don’t think the next phase of the cycle looks anything like 2020 or 2021. To me, it feels more like a market that rewards patience, conservative assumptions, and knowing your market well.

I wrote a longer piece laying all this out in more detail if anyone wants to dig deeper, but I’m genuinely curious what others are seeing.

How are you thinking about leverage and underwriting heading into 2026?
Are you changing how or where you’re investing compared to a few years ago?

Looking forward to hearing how others are approaching it.